AICS $1,000 query19 Sep 2025 11:30
Take a look at KEFI’s own reports:
In their 2023 Annual Report, the forecast AISC for the open-pit Tulu Kapi (with KEFI’s ~80% beneficial interest) is ≈ US$900/oz at a certain assumed gold price.
KEFI also reports an estimated all-in costs (AIC, includes initial capital rather than just sustaining costs) of around US$1,070/oz under those assumptions.
More recently, for a higher gold price scenario (~US$3,000/oz), Tulu Kapi’s projected AISC is US$960/oz and AIC about US$1,206/oz.
Directors Talk Interviews
In their Q1 2024 update, projected AISC is ~US$860/oz, with a break-even (including debt service etc.) of ~US$1,200/oz.
Research Tree
So across a range of scenarios, KEFI’s forecasts hover between US$850–1,000/oz for AISC (sustaining) in many cases, but often somewhat under or around that threshold, sometimes above depending on assumptions.
What would be required to get down to US$1,000/oz or below
To have a reliably low AISC (say $1,000/oz or less), KEFI would need favourable conditions such as:
High grade ore — more gold per tonne reduces cost per ounce, since fixed costs & many variable costs scale with tonnage.
High recovery rates — better metallurgical performance means less loss of gold and hence lower per-ounce costs. KEFI assumes ~91-94% recoveries in some plans.
Low sustaining capital — after initial build, maintenance / replacement capital must be modest.
Favourable input costs — labor, power, reagents, fuel, consumables must be stable or low.
Efficient operations and overhead — good logistics, minimal cost overruns, stable regulatory environment, no unexpected downtime.
Good royalty / tax regimes that don’t bite too much.
Gold price — higher gold prices helps make breakeven easier, but AISC is a cost measure, not revenue. However royalties often are % of revenue or influenced by price, so regulatory costs might increase with gold price. KEFI’s estimates do consider that royalties vary.
The risks or things that push AISC higher
Some of the things that might push AISC above US$1,000/oz in KEFI’s case:
Rising costs of consumables, power, fuel (especially in remote areas)
Unexpected environmental/regulatory burdens or delays
Lower than expected ore grades or metallurgical recovery
Inflation in labour or contractor costs
Higher sustaining capital (for equipment, tailings, etc.) than forecast
Gold price fluctuations impacting royalty (if royalty is a percentage or sliding scale)
Cost of financing / debt service, which sometimes isn’t included in AISC but becomes part of break-even.
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