Member Info for Drewky

So if my you think my valuation gave you the option for a giggle shall we take a look at it?

Firstly, if my valuation was so extremely high to be laughed at, what are you complaining about in relationship to the farm-out offer?

Pre the Farm-out my valuation on the DEVELOPED Ruvuma field was 20p (more if we struck oil) which would've amounted to apx. $700m Mcap

As we hit almost 8p (apx $290m Mcap) on the basis of 460ish bcf and we now know we are looking at 1.87tcf I don't think it was unreasonable to be looking at 2 1/2 times that for a four times increase in bcf with a potential of oil in a lower reservoir.

So let's forget the giggling and let's look at where we are now. We won't take account of potential Kiliwani revenue or the wider potential of Nyuni...

A 25% share that is looking to bring in cash revenue/annum of $40m from Ruvuma alone so what Mcap value do you put on the $40m?

4x that figure means Ruvuma is expected to deliver $160m/annum for the JV and for that to be worth 20p as a whole is a little under 4 1/2 times revenue so how unrealistic was my valuation?

I'm not an accountant but I would have thought to buy a business at $700m that is set to earn $40m /annum over the next 29 years is pretty good value if you could pay for it in 4 1/2 years. A cool long term $1,000,000,000 long term profit on the deal.

When you look at some of the ridiculous valuations out there for companies who have barely turned a drill then I see this company as being well undervalued at this time. Yes it is contingent on the government approval but the TPDC confirmed over the weekend that is being processed right now within the PSA mandated time frame.

Yes the drill may or may not take place in December but once the green light has been given and as above we've been told by the horse that it is in time frame process then we are off and running and whether anybody likes it or not, "as soon as is practical" is as near to the reality of a date they are going to get at this stage.

But please anyone feel free to put a differing valuation with an explanations as to why you differ. Have to go out myself now so will look in later or in the morning. (My figures have been rounded purely for ease of calculation)

Good luck for morning everyone, tomorrow is the day to make things happen before the Solo meeting. If not we have until Monday next week for the End November target.

.

If you really believed there will be no value for that long Pete you wouldn't be recommending hold or waiting to buy more if the price drops.

You would have your money elswhere until the time is right for you

Remediation failure: Who told you that? Christmas is the date we were told it would be completed by and we haven't got there yet.

Mugged; In yours and a few others opinion we may have, but not all of us see it that way and your opinion is no more valid than those that think otherwise.

Run Over: A Government is a government the world over and if you think a little company like Aminex can tell a government when to jump then you are more naïve than I would ever have believed you to be. Even Shell can't get what they want before they are ready to give it.

We are on the verge of a new dawn and when the sun rises and the deal goes through, all the crepe that is continually being raked up will drift away like flotsam and jetsam and you, just like me will be laughing all the way to your matress ;0))

If you can afford to wait owning several million beers already, then you must continue to live in the cloud of your own painting until the global warming gets rid of the rains, the muggers are all locked up and the green party has put an end to transport. You must be seriously worried in fact so seriously worried that you hang onto the beers you have tightly and look to wait for an opportunity to buy more lower if you can. Can't say that I blame you, I would buy more if I could.

I have plenty of beer myself and I am currently enjoying a half full glass of it, somehow a half empty one is a little too depressing for me. Enjoy your beer ;0))

Tanzania: Dar-Moro Electric Train Ready By December Next Year

https://allafrica.com/stories/201811050699.html

"Addressing reporters, Dr Abbas said the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) was one of the mega projects that the government is implementing, adding that its speed of implementation is a testimony that its Dar es Salaam-Morogoro phase would be completed by the end of next year.

Equally, the State's spokesperson citing the industrial sector, pointed out that it has created new 26,000 job opportunities, and stimulated economic growth in comparison to other African and East African Community member states."

We're doomed I tell thee! We could get struck by lightening as we come out of our front doors, we could get mugged in the street, we could get run over by a bus as we cross the road to the pub but then again we might make it and enjoy that promised pint or three ;0))

All of those things depend on an IF

IF I was to base actions on the view of the first three I doubt I would never step out of my door and would be too risk averse to enjoy a life without fear. While it's good to know the risks involved in getting to the pub, enjoying the beer is rewarding so it's a risk I'm happy with.

Of course it will affect the sp as the traders will have a little more time to play but the issue for them at that point is the spud could take place at anytime because we will not be awaiting permissions at that point.

As you said yourself earlier today NT2 spud was announced after it had happened so if they did that again, perhaps it would catch a few with their pants down?

As I said it wouldn't bother me then as the go ahead has been given and I'm not going to risk selling to buy at that late stage.

As for the knock on effect, I think there was a conversation last year about the weather window and if I'm right the conclusion was that once the rig was installed and running, then it can continue drilling through the rainy season because the real issue is getting the rig to location and erected in adverse weather. If we can manage that I don't see a problem but as you say having to wait further, could delay us a two or three months.

Nothing is guaranteed in life and especially in this industry but those who think it is are living in cuckoo land to expect it to be that way and equally so for complaining when things don't go quite as expected although of course disappointment would be understandable.

"The best laid plans of mice & men"

The last communication you quote

"During the first half of 2018, the Company continued to progress work on the Chikumbi-1 drilling prospect in preparation for the completion of the Farm-Out with an expectation to commence the Chikumbi-1 drilling programme as soon as reasonably practicable."

At least a month ago we were informed they were in final negotiation with two suppliers for the rig. We were also told the pad is completed and rig ready. So apparently we are ready to go and just awaiting the approvals from the government which is completely out of the companies hands.

They have reaffirmed three times that the expected farm-out completion date is the end of this month so at this stage there is no genuine reason other than personal prejudice to fear it won't be. We still have a week to go before we reach that position.

TPDC confirmed over the weekend that the licence is being dealt with inside the time frame of the PSA and Aminex know what those dates are, so why would they reaffirm a date before the time frame is complete? That doesn't make any sense to do that at all.

If things go ahead as planned with the farm-out, it is all down to the logistics of the drill being close enough and the weather window being favourable to make the drill happen before Christmas. It may not be practical but will it really matter if it is December or January? To me no it won't, the important thing is the licence which give the go ahead for the farm-out itself. I don't expect it to be voted down at the EGM so a few weeks delay on the drill after all this time will make little difference.

Could even be a limbo under the wire which would we apt considering the limbo we are in

Zzzzzz

To give Solo something to talk about at their meeting it has to be tomorrow or Tuesday so our EGM is done in time. They meet on 22nd.

TPDC RESPONSE TO MAX. I'm surprised he's not got round to sharing yet but thanks for asking the question Max well done. "TPDC as a licence holder has logged license extension to the government within the contract agreement framework. The Aminex are well informed on the subject matter that it is within the jurisdiction and timeframe mandated under the PA 2015." All being well Aminex know when it's expected then. Anybody else putting the alarm on for 6.55 in the morning?

There was certainly talk of it BG. I thought it came from Jay as he was talking about optimising the position to reach as many targets as possible. It's certainly come from somewhere but I can't see reference in RNs so maybe it wasn't done would need to look through all interviews again. Not really that important tbh now the pad is drill ready

I may be wrong and it may be from another share I've got this but I have read somewhere about a deal with a seismic company to take part fees for %. Is anybody aware of this? or even a possibility of it?

As said may be it was elsewhere

Interesting viewing the map as it appears to have been updated data from this year.

However I don't think that CH-1 is actually on that left hand pad. That pad though not completed to that degree was shown on a previous map but the CH-1 pad was moved this year and is now drill ready.

I'm not sure we were informed the distance for the pad relocation? but it should be in close proximity.

Learned something there Tarry Irn indeed :0))

Apparently the rust bucket is being sent to Scotland to be melted down ready for the batch of Iron Bru

Well you've made your view clear and you may be right but I prefer to wait and see. One way or another once the farm-out is agreed it is going to happen and personally that is the key issue for the success of this company. I don't care whether the drill starts 21st December or 21 January it will be neither here or there in the grand scheme of things although I agree the spud will generate further interest but I expect they would be able to announce a date fairly soon after completion.

Oh well, finished with a Blue Friday enjoy the weekend everyone, fingers crossed for Monday

The Bod don't have to tell us when they have a cup of tea and a contract with contingency would not likely be material or sp affecting until the trigger is realised so therefore no need. Would you like a biscuit with your tea ;0))