Member Info for DRB83

Start by checking people's antibody levels before stabbing them. Not everyone will need a booster every 3 month. If their so scarce then prioritise based on antibody levels. Is this where the next gen antibody test comes in. I suspect in 2022 we will find out.

You're having a larf mate

Agree with that Heuy.

Last part:

By combining a broad technology base with agile and innovative product development and a clinical trial functionality, the Board believes the Company is well positioned to rapidly address new areas of unmet need with market leading products. The R&D outlook for 2021 is strong, with a number of new products in development that will continue to meet the rapidly changing requirements of COVID-19 testing and address the broader non-COVID-19 respiratory, transplant and infectious disease markets. This is underpinned by a strengthened cash position and the business will continue to invest in innovation, organic expansion, and external business development, in line with its growth strategy. The Company also continues to evaluate M&A opportunities and will consider additional bolt-on acquisitions to add strategic assets and expand its geographic footprint.

Well since the update we have had the PathFlow Pro LFT. Not sure on sales but I'm assuming as GM was very conservative that the £100m would include alot of LFT sales.

We unfortunately didn't get the PathFlow self test but that will come in Q122 I expect. Just in time to help places like Wetherspoons open up. I also expect the next gen antibody test to come through in Q1. Starting to question where significant antibody testing fits in to society but again, insuspect this would have been excluded from the future guidance.

We have had the updated Winterplex and the Escapeplex test CE marked which also covers off Omicron.

STILL TO COME
Co-prep, can't really comment as we don't know what is holding up the launch. Again, prudent GM wouldn't have included anything in the guidance for this imo.

RESplex, Hiberplex - are these related to the reference of non-covid products. I suspect so.

10 min PCR test - game changer
IT-IS enhancement - sure they're not just twiddling thumbs.

In summary, it's been 3 months since we had a R&D update. If we do get one more RNS before the trading update then I suspect it will be a R&D update.

Copy and paste facts to back up my thoughts so people can see where I'm coming from. Try it.

There will be a tolerance Woody. Define significant. 10%, 20%. Who knows.

And more:

In the first five months of 2021, Novacyt has delivered a gross margin of over 70% and an EBITDA margin of over 40%, excluding the impact of sales to the DHSC, and the Directors are confident the Company can maintain these levels of underlying profitability for the balance of the year if volumes are in-line with its current expectations. This assumes no further sales to the DHSC for the balance of the year and no further provisions or adjustments relating to the current dispute.

In H1, gross margin was 71% but this included a higher than usual stock provision (£2.2m) due to the high levels of stock we were holding. I suspect stock to remain flat in H2 so we shouldn't see another stock provision increase in. They may possibly reduce it depending on stock levels. The 70% also included a huge 1m test giveaway to the UNICEF. just under 200k delivered by end of Jun21. So there is good reason to believe that the gross profit come the end of the year will exceed ncyt's expectations. If it does then this will also trickle down to the bottom line EBITDA. Higher sales than expected will also result in a higher EBITDA % as our fixed costs won't necessarily increase. In summary, I see nothing to convince me that first the revenue should be higher than £100m, but also that the op margin % and EBITDA % should be higher than ncyt expectations also.

Also from the H1 update

Looking forward, the Company expects strong growth in private testing as markets and travel re-open, which could lead to higher infection rates, and an increase in testing to return in Q4 2021, in line with Q4 2020, during the winter period. The Company also expects to see significant new growth from the launch of new products during the second half of 2021, including an expansion of its lateral flow antigen testing portfolio for both professional and home use. If demand picks up in line with expectations, the Company expects to see full year sales of approximately £100m, excluding the sales to the DHSC which are in dispute.

well it's safe to say infection rates across the entire H2 were higher than ncyt expected especially Q4. Multiple times more than Q420. The LFT is the only downside to their expectations but by my calculations they can't have assumed a lot of sales from the LFT home test. In summary, ncyt have no excuse not to significantly exceed the guidance. They would have no where to hide.

4 weeks until we find out. Logic says they have smashed the guidance within a tolerance where they don't have to disclose.

A look back at the update in June:

Trading update and outlook for the remainder of 2021

For the five months ended 31 May 2021, the Company had unaudited sales of £88.4m compared to £40.8m for the same period in 2020. This £88.4m includes £40.7m of sales to the DHSC, which are part of the dispute. Excluding the DHSC, the Company saw a run-rate of over £10m in sales per month in Q1 2021, which has declined to approximately £7m per month in April and May as infection rates eased and testing has dropped sharply. This is a repeat of the trend seen in 2020 as countries moved into the summer period and the spread of COVID-19 declined.

Well, given that there were probably more infections in Q3 than Q1 and we all know Q4 has been rediculously high then based on their reason for the drop in Q2, H2 should be the opposite and the £100m guidance should get blown out of the water. 4 weeks till we find out.

You'll have to translate but apparently the sale of cannabis flowers are now officially banned in France due to the risk of uncontrolled levels of THC. Better off just not having THC if it's that dangerous.

https://www.liberation.fr/societe/sante/cbd-la-vente-et-la-detention-de-fleurs-de-chanvre-desormais-interdites-en-france-20211231_ZIF5NLGDAVATZFLNZL53B2ANHQ/

I wish they hadn't disclosed the value of the DHSC contract.

Margin squeeze is always a risk but at 80% op margins, we have plenty of room. We didn't have to squeeze margins in H1 and with demand through the roof I don't see any reason to squeeze in H2.

Yes raw material prices will increase but ultimately our sales price will increase in line. The squeeze you would like to think would be with the testing providers as they already charge rediculous amounts in most cases.

Anyone pumping their money into a share solely off the back of what is said on BB is running a way too simple and risky investing strategy.

Year end accounts
Trading updates
Forward guidance
RNS's
News articles
BOD interviews
Company presentations
Google searches

A review of the above is where you'll find evidence of the strength of the fundamentals. This along with a review of this BB should be what you base your final decision on.

Evidently, ncyt don't do much in terms of contributing to much of the above so it is difficult for potential new buyers to choose ncyt to invest in over other companies. At the same time, it can get frustrating for existing holders of which some release said frustrations on this BB. It's partly what it's for.

Woody setting himself up for a great fall. Not wise.

Lol, here come the trolls.

A suggestion, let's move past the rediculous Porky spygate and focus on the content please. A contribution would be nice or am I asking for too much.

A more positive view would be that DA has been here 10 weeks and during most of that time Omicron has been present and business will have been booming. He would have been extremely busy stamping his style on the business and making the relevant changes. This would have taken up the most of his time. Not to mention getting to grips with the DHSC. What's been done in the last 10 weeks won't need to be done in the next 10 weeks. As DA gets the business processes flowing as he wants then he'll have more time to look forward. He must have set his sights on end of January to be in a position to communicate to the market what has been done and what the strategy is going forward. Let's see

Given today is the last day of FY21. What do we think the cash balance will be. I'll start:

June 30 £77m
Cash from new revenue £28m
Tax overpayment refund £14m
VAT recovery £8m
Sub total cash = £127m
Less LTIP paid in Nov 21 £6m

Estimated cash at 31 Dec. £121m BEST CASE IMO

WORST CASE

June 30 £77m
Cash from new revenue £23m
Tax overpayment refund £0m
VAT recovery £0m
Sub total cash = £100m
Less LTIP paid in Nov 21 £6m

Estimated cash at 31 Dec. £94m WORST CASE IMO

Assuming no movements in Trade receivables, payables and stock the the cash range is £94m - £121m

Any advances on this.

So does that mean if sadly they lose their battle they won't be counted in the figures as deaths are usually only included within 28 days of a positive test. His calculations probably need fact checking.

Amid a lot of optimistic noises about evidence of the “mildness” of the Omicron variant and the modest rise in hospitalisations compared to cases so far in the UK, Professor Peter Openshaw, who sits on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), has struck a more cautious note this morning on BBC Breakfast. PA Media quote him saying:

The latest figures show extraordinary rises in infection rates and this is before we’ve had time to see the full effect of what’s happened over Christmas.

The people currently who are very sadly dying of Covid were probably infected on average about 35 days ago, so this was really before Omicron really started to transmit.

It’s therefore too early to say what the impact of Omicron is going to be on more severe disease.

It’s mostly been circulating in children, in people in contact with children, and it’s now going to spread into older adults at much higher risk of severe disease and those with pre-existing illnesses.

I’m very, very glad that a very large majority of those have been triple-vaccinated because that gives you very good levels of protection, admittedly probably not for good but at least for a while.

Woody, don't tell me you drive down the wrong side of the motorway just to avoid going along with the mainstream. Jeez