Member Info for DRB83

At least provide the latest data Dribbles.

So it begins. Germany looking at creating a framework which will help determine if my life is worth saving more than yours or vice versa should ICU beds become overwhelmed. Is this the part where we start to worry :-(

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/28/german-court-disabled-people-covid-triage

Just looking back at the H1 results and one thing I believe most of us have missed is relating to the EBITDA.

The FY20 EBITDA was 64%. In H121 it dropped to 43% which I believe the general consensus was the drop being related to increased headcount etc.

However, the H1 accounts deducted the £41m revenue from DHSC but they didn't mention anything about removing the related cost of sales. Why would they? They are sunk and it's prudent to keep them in.

The operating margin in FY20 was 83% (when you remove the £20m warranty provision). If we remove the cost of sales for the £41m at say 17% = £7m we end up with a true EBITDA of 56%

Revenue £54m
Cost of sales £9m
Gross Profit £45m
Gross profit 83%
Ebitda £30m
EBITDA 56%

This is significantly particular as we have been using 43% when working out our cash. If you use the 56% figure for the last 6 months of FY21 you would get cash at Dec 31st as:

Open cash £77m
Revenue £46m
EBITDA £26m
Cash conversion 80% = £21m
Cash sub total = £98m
Add in £10m tax refund £108m

Now assume we hit £60m revenue in H2. That's another £6m cash so £114m. Tax implications might actually result in an even higher cash pile.

Also, if our underlying EBITDA is closer to 56% then this changes the EV of the business. On £100m sales we make £56m EBITDA at a PE of 15 puts us at £840m add in the £114m cash pile and that gives you a £954m mcap, or £13.43 per share. Nice!

Exactly my point Oriens. I remember last year when we let expectation run away with itself.

Whilst ever countries keep giving the vaccinated privileges such as untested access to crowded events and reduced isolation times then the spread will continue. Not rocket science. To think that our leaders are fueling this surge just to coerce the last few % to get jabbed.

France 179k
UK 150k
Italy 79k
US 200k+

These are our biggest markets that are producing eye popping covid numbers. Even with a positivity rate of 20% you would carry out 5 tests for every one case. That's millions of tests per day demand in our biggest markets.

The expectation of FY21 revenue exceeding £100m grows by the day. The problem is the silence. When they do update us in Jan, if it comes out at £100m I can only imagine the reaction in the SP.

It feels like we are now in a position where we have to smash the guidance or it will be seen as a huge disappointment. Not the most comfortable position to be in.

Yes Trouble, that is indeed the key metric. 9500+ in hospital currently in England. That will be over 10k when the rest of UK submit their numbers. 2 weeks ago that figure was 7500.

Apparently, these numbers can be distorted by people who are in hospital with Covid and not because of it. Why on earth don't they just split the number out then. It's not hard, the data is all there. All it does it give misleading information. Either way, the increase is not good news but how bad, will we ever know. Boris seems relaxed so maybe we should all just follow the leader, leader, leader follow the leader.

Hope our sales chaps speak Spanish.

Demand for free Covid-19 testing kits provided by Madrid’s regional government, which is relying on increased testing instead of restrictions on socialising, far outstripped supply on Tuesday, with long queues forming outside pharmacies, Reuters reports.

Madrid-based pharmacist Cristina Sanchez said she had only received 20 test kits to distribute on Tuesday as part of a plan to reinforce supply after pharmacies started running out of paid tests, but there were already more than 30 people waiting ouside when she opened.

130k cases today. Incomplete data. You can add another 20-30k onto that for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Approx 150k cases in one day. Wow.

5 days isolation followed by 5 days mingling but with a mask. I'm sure everyone in the US will definitely follow the mask rule. NOT. So no negative test required to release yourself from isolation after only 5 days.

What I read from that is. The US are struggling to meet testing demand so let's find ways to reduce demand. Changes like this will only aide the spread and prolong the pandemic. Quality leaders.

There is a film in Netflix right now called 'Dont look up'. It portrays today's governments perfectly.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/27/health/cdc-covid-quarantine-isolation-shortened-recommendation/index.html

Gives a bad name for PCR but the gov have no excuse. At what point do they think, let's just put 2-3 q machines at each test site and get the results turned round in an hour. Bob's your uncle. Pretty sure the machines would pay for themselves very quickly which is the most frustrating part. Are ncyt doing enough to really sell the benefits of on site processing or is it the gov who just can't see the woods for the trees.

Record demand in Scotland for PCR tests have left some families waiting up to five days for results over the Christmas period.

Some people taking tests on 23 December only got them back on 28 December, the BBC reports. The normal waiting time is within 48 hours.

When you are in a period of radio silence then all you can do is speculate unfortunately. Wild? I don't think so. We have see several bits of evidence including an hour long presentation from Tata MD clearly showing the Mygo machine in direct correlation with their express test.

India under restrictions and lockdowns.

https://m.timesofindia.com/city/delhi/omicron-surge-yellow-alert-in-delhi-more-restrictions-to-be-imposed-says-cm-arvind-kejriwal/articleshow/88540919.cms

Seen that Soder. I'm not talking about tests. I'm talking machines. I referenced the wrong sales number before. Total sales in ME for H1 is £394k. IT-IS just £16k. That's about 3 minis. Offering an exclusivity deal to Tata MD would be no skin off our nose. India distributors not doing much for us. India like to buy their own clearly (maybe UK can take a leaf from that book) so why not license our machines to Tata MD under a white label exclusivity deal. Makes sense to me. After reviewing the YouTube presentation Tata MD clearly like what they see with our Mygo range. Rebranding it as their own and calling it Indian makes sense, isn't that what Innova did (or tried to do) Could it be Kempegowda Airport was the pilot and anyday now they'll be rolling them out across India safe in the knowledge that they have exclusive access to the best high volume portable rapid PCR testing machine available. Oh and the price of the Tata test is significantly lower than the Abbott test.

I am not sure if we have partnered with them on their test, I don't believe so but still, in a country the size of India machines only will do nicely.

In the H1 numbers we had next to know business in the Middle East. £253k to be precise. That's nothing. What's to say ncyt recognised the difficulties in getting into India and agreed an exclusivity deal with Tata for the use of our machines. Exclusivity has its weakness has it limits your options but if it's with someone the size of Tata MD in a market you are struggling to break then why not. If the deal is based on a short term trial, say 1 month i.e Tata MD pilot program in Kempegowda airport then assuming it has been a success we could be looking at a significant opportunity to get into India.

If the exclusivity method works then it's a case of rinse repeat with companies such as ****stan, China, South Korea, Japan. The country has to have the appetite for quality rapid PCR testing and a big local player willing to sign up to the deal. Just a thought

Sellers arn't done yet. Some big sells going through this morning. The SP is holding up well I feel. Seem to be trading in a 477-490 range.

Next time we test 490 I predict a breakout from the range and a retest of 500. Let's see.

Blue incoming?

Half done in less than 2 hours. Have they taken their profits yet.

Can't see a direct link to us but certainly indicates that testing is going to be around for a while yet. I think they signed up recently with ODX for their LFT. Not sure about the PCR.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10347695/amp/National-Covid-19-testing-firm-creates-hundreds-new-jobs-demand-soars.html

A third done in the first hour alone.