SJL post after he sold13 Nov 2020 08:38
All,
You will see from the share trades and TR-1 I sent in a moment ago that I am ALL out of MMX now.
I wanted to post here some words to explain the rationale behind my decision to sell and also my thoughts on the company and the sector for what they may be worth now.
Firstly, I would like to state categorically that the decision to sell was formulated and executed over just a few days this week and that I am truly pleased that I was able in short order to execute unplanned sales via the open market, I’m sure channeled by FinnCap for 10% of the companies issued stock at effectively the regular, published bid price. That level of liquidity should give everyone comfort.
I may have mentioned in one of my prev posts here earlier this year, that having merged my private Age Verification business into an FCA regulated business I had also been forecasting a major price correction in the general public markets for some time and viewed them as overheated and pulled some $50 million USD out of stocks in the December/January period straddling the end of the US tax year. I announced that MMX was my only remaining public holding and I was continuing to hold them in expectation of good FY 2019 figures and announcements and a suitable uplift in SP at results time to hopefully be followed by a premium exit in 2020 to one of the several candidates discussed here ad nauseum.
The SP rose to some 8.4p late Feb early march in anticipation and then just got washed away down to 5p in the meltdown before stabilizing back a just over 6p.
I fully expect the wider market to take a substantial fall again from its current levels as I don’t think the wider index levels are justified from prospective earnings, both US and UK. IMHO, as has been shown already MMX will most likely suffer with a commensurate fall should the wider market fall.
I think we will be in a longer period of suppressed valuations and quite a long recovery period, especially for those companies waiting for a premium exit.
I just simply decided on Wednesday to take my cards off the table at 6p and add another $7MM to my cash reserves. Nothing has changed with MMX and its trading prospects to my knowledge and I believe it to be a solid, relatively recession proof business with low cost renewable recurring revenues that will likely continue.
I just no longer feel that there is a likelihood of a premium exit in 2020 given all that has happened these last 6-7 weeks and its effect on the wider global economy. I would sooner be in cash right now and as of today I no longer hold a single publicly traded stock. When I decided to liquidate my portfolio 3-5 months ago, I made an exception to keep MMX as I felt it had very unique strong short term (within a year) appreciation prospects via an exit. Through no fault of its own I no longer feel that is likely.
I have largely enjoyed contributing to this board and I must say that, on the whole, have enjoyed dealing with MMX management.