Member Info for Dr_Kaboom

60p bid being hit again.

Our friends at Pictet have added to their shorts on Friday.

Well, not much buying either. Guess everyone waiting for TF to lay out his plan.

Am more bullish now that they have shored up the balance sheet.

How about Tullow fail liquidity test, holders call in debt followed by debt for equity swap. Debt holders become majority shareholders, and benefit from improved business plan proposed in CMD. Unfortunately, current shareholders get wiped out during the process.
Luckily for current shareholders, i would say above is unlikely but hey ho, who knows what's going on in the background...

Based on the RNS, threshold was crossed in Aug.

Hahha, Canary, if you read the posts properly, you will see i was buying in teens :). And before you ask, i have reduced my holdings, like Slift.

You continue with your baseless ramps.

The Directors note that the results of some of the actions mentioned above are outside the control of the Group. If a breach of the RBL Gearing covenant in respect of either of the 12-month testing periods ending on 31 December 2020 and 30 June 2021 were to occur or the Group were not to pass the 18 months Liquidity Forecast Test at the September 2020, the January 2021 or the March 2021 RBL re-determination, and the Group were unable to negotiate amendments or waivers to its covenants, the ability of the Group to continue trading would depend upon the Group being able to negotiate a financial restructuring proposal with its creditors and, if necessary, that proposal being approved by shareholders. Whilst the Board would seek to negotiate such a financial restructuring proposal with its creditors, there is no certainty that the creditors would engage with the Board in those circumstances. There would therefore be a significant risk of the Group entering into insolvency proceedings, which the Directors consider would likely result in limited or no value being returned to shareholders.

With all the warnings in the RNS, investors should not complain if they were to fail the liquidity test and the share price is marked down 90% on open.

The Group's cash flow projections forecast a potential liquidity shortfall during the 18-month period relevant to the Liquidity Forecast Test in respect of the January 2021 RBL re-determination due to the maturity of the $650m Senior Notes due in April 2022. If the Group is unable to demonstrate to the reasonable satisfaction of the relevant majority of its lenders under the RBL Facility that it has, or will have, sufficient funds available to meet the Group's financial commitments for the 18-month testing period from February 2021 to July 2022 inclusive, and the Group is unable to cure the forecast liquidity shortfall within 90 days following the date on which it becomes aware that it has not passed the Liquidity Forecast Test, there will be an event of default under the RBL Facility by the end of April 2021.

Management is undertaking a comprehensive review of each of the Group's assets to maximise their value. These plans will be laid out at a Capital Markets Day before the end of the year, following which Management expects to take one or more of the following actions which it believes would be progressed sufficiently by the end of January 2021 to address the forecasted liquidity shortfall in April 2022:

· Evaluate refinancing options for either or both of the Convertible Bonds due in July 2021 and the Senior Notes due in April 2022.

· Seek to agree more beneficial technical and/or economic assumptions with its lenders or to amend the commercial terms of the RBL Facility in order to maintain or increase debt capacity.

· Seek to secure new liquidity from banks or capital markets investors.

In parallel, the Directors continue to evaluate strategic opportunities and engage in discussions with third parties with a view to raising material proceeds from portfolio management, in addition to the proceeds expected to be received from the Uganda transaction.

If in the opinion of the Directors the above initiatives cannot be sufficiently progressed by January 2021 to address the forecasted liquidity shortfall in April 2022, and in the unlikely event that the Uganda transaction does not complete, the Group will initiate discussions with its creditors with a view to agreeing a financial restructuring proposal.

Exactly, Slift. I see it in exactly the same way.

Canary,

"Let me guess we already have enough cash in the bank and undrawn facilities to pay for the 2021 AND 2022 bond maturities, now our debt have gone from 3.1 billion to 2.4 billion dollars."

This is highly misleading.

Meant March 2021 is the issue.

Canary, the Sep 2020 liquidity test was never an issue. It is the March 2022 which is the problem; hence, the reason to do another test in Jan 2021 and if they were to fail it, it will give them a few weeks to take action prior to Mae 2021 liquidity test.
The short term liquidity issue has not been resolved yet, despite the CMD.

I hope you do realise that the convenant gearing ans liquidity test are separate items.

Canary, you should probably let Tullow know then that they have already passed the Jan 2021 liquiduty test lol

Despite the CMD last week, there stillexists material uncertainties regarding the Liquidity Forecast Test for January 2021. Those issues are yet to be addressed properly.

Their injector and offloading system in Ghana are too unreliable.

Financial and operational update from CNIC.

Bakky, i reckon the money for buyback was after they had already ring fenced the rainy day money.

Someone wants out.

You could be right but i doubt the opportunity to mark it down will be missed when finals are released.