Member Info for Dorfan

And where did that come from, care to share?

Trouble

“ Over the last 12 months, risks have been contained ”

If 2025 has contained a number of risks, what do some of those risks look like for 2026? Will they actually change how the share price moves if they become reality?

Instead of some people just instantly dismissing them as ‘crap’ how about picking any that you feel may need some debate, DYOR and come back for an adult discussion.

Key Risks for 2026

Mortgage Defaults and Economic Weakness: A significant number of UK fixed-rate mortgages (around 1.8 million) are due to end in 2026, with borrowers facing substantial payment increases from approximately 1% to nearly 5%. This, combined with rising unemployment and low savings among many UK adults, creates a real threat of increased loan defaults, which could significantly impact Lloyds' large mortgage book.

Falling Net Interest Margins (NIMs): While high interest rates have boosted profits, anticipated further cuts to the Bank of England base rate in 2026 are expected to reduce NIMs—the difference between what the bank pays savers and charges borrowers. As Lloyds is heavily reliant on UK retail banking for nearly all its profits, it is particularly exposed to this risk compared to more diversified competitors.

Regulatory Penalties: There is a possibility of further substantial charges related to the mis-selling of car loans, a sector-wide issue for which Lloyds has already set aside significant provisions. Additionally, the UK's data watchdog is investigating the bank over its use of aggregated employee banking data during union pay negotiations, which could result in regulatory action.

Concentration Risk: Because the bank operates almost entirely within the UK, it faces significant concentration risk and is highly sensitive to the domestic economic outlook. A spluttering UK economy could see impairments snowball and loan growth cool sharply.

Geopolitical and Macro Risks: Broader global challenges such as ongoing geopolitical conflicts, climate change issues, and potential trade tariffs could impact the UK economy and, by extension, the bank's performance.

Chips

“ Most on this forum have No Lloyds Banking Shares”

Who do you believe are not invested in Lloyds? And that goes to anyone else that has made the same comment.

Yawn!

Trouble

“ Sensitivity here is at an all time high !”

It certainly seems to be for those that are reading posts that are factual and correct which don’t align with certain other people’s views and then they get them removed.

For me, I am not sensitive at the antics of Trouble and co, is anyone else? I doubt it.

This is not looking good for Lloyds to reach its target of 50,000 homes to rent.

In January 2026, UK house building is experiencing a significant slump. While recent government data and some industry forecasts suggest a modest recovery is expected later in the year, current output remains at its lowest levels since the 2020 pandemic.

Current Decline (January 2026)

Activity Levels: The S&P Global UK Construction PMI for December 2025 recorded a housebuilding subindex of 33.5, significantly below the 50.0 neutral threshold, marking the deepest downturn in over five years.

Supply Forecast: The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected a sharp fall in annual housing supply, dropping from roughly 260,000 homes in the early 2020s to just 215,000 for 2026–27—a 17% decline.

Regional Trends: In London, private housing starts have reportedly fallen to historic lows not seen since WWII, with only 3,248 starts in the first nine months of 2025.

Reasons for the Slump

High Costs: Builders are struggling with viability challenges due to high interest rates, elevated building costs (projected to rise 15% over the next five years), and increased employer taxes.

Regulatory Delays: Approvals from the new Building Safety Regulator have created significant backlogs, particularly for apartment projects.

Subdued Demand: High mortgage rates and fragile consumer confidence have slowed private sales.

Trouble, thought I would help on some more information again, just in case you forgot to read it earlier

While overall net migration is down, specific categories continue to show pressure:

Asylum Applications: rose by 13% to over 110,000 in the year ending September 2025.

Asylum Accommodation: The number of people in asylum hotels increased to over 36,000 by late 2025.

Small Boat Arrivals: Crossings increased by approximately 13% in 2025 compared to 2024.

Trouble

“ It's blocking out news directly related to Lloyds”

Says the person who started a thread earlier on ‘Net migration’

While overall net migration is down, specific categories continue to show pressure:

Asylum Applications: rose by 13% to over 110,000 in the year ending September 2025.

Asylum Accommodation: The number of people in asylum hotels increased to over 36,000 by late 2025.

Small Boat Arrivals: Crossings increased by approximately 13% in 2025 compared to 2024.

DCB, would you like to tell us what the article actually says in detail? What you have snipped from it doesn’t tell us what is actually happening does it?

I am intrigued to see what Lloyds is getting back from this in terms of ROI.

Trouble, I made a decision in the past that members here with long usernames will be truncated down to 6-7 alpha numeric characters. Nothing personal.

Trouble, now that STP is now back posting today, this is a good opportunity to ask him about his connection to the past and his previous username DCB.

Look forward to you asking and the rest of us seeing the response.

I was looking at a you gov poll the other day that had a lot more graphs on different questions which was more informative.

Labour gone from 26% down to around 16%, while greens gone from 8% to 15%. The target audience for the Greens is 18-24 year olds. You can see why when they want to make the minimum wage £15 an hour. That will certainly have a major impact on exports, more job losses etc, etc. We think Labour are doing badly now, the Greens will decimate the country. Where will funds to be sourced from to nationalise all our essential services. It goes on.

Which polls are these Paddy, care to share them.

‘Steady as she goes’

And there was me thinking he was following close up the rear this morning to STP’s reply earlier with a smile.

Trouble

“Much prefer this thread heading which is directly related to Lloyds”

Then makes another post baiting another member, Harley.

“Do you have anything else in common with Farage ?”

You really are a sad person who continually baits people.

You are displaying a hatred for Farage and the Reform party, on a par with my dislike for Labour, funny that.

I see you have been busy having posts/threads deleted, is the temperature getting a bit hot for you? Can’t stand the truth so has the evidence deleted. This just shows you don’t have the ability to discuss topics in an adult manner. I have invited you now several times and you get those threads deleted as well.

Don’t come back saying I am a liar and embarrassed about it all, it is you that is embarrassed by being found out. Jog on back to the old forum you were on and cause mayhem there.

Trouble

Why are you reposting a post that was sent in by STP, trying to deflect the heat away from yourself?

How sad, but not surprising as you have nothing to offer on this forum. You refuse to engage in adult discussions as all you want to do is cause trouble which is what you told us was you primary objective for bring here is, and that is another hard truth, but I suspect you have a selective memory on this.

Paddy

“ So back it up with evidence? Ive not lied about anything.”

I just have, short term memory or not reading all the posts properly.

And I certainly am not embarrassed at all. Backed into a corner and you behave like a child, no change as usual

Paddy

“ He and others like it when there is no one around to challenge there views .”

Another lie from you. If you had been around to see the thread the other day which ASI was on as well you would know the truth, sadly a clown got it removed.

But then you like to tell lies and then say all your posts are the truth, arrogance at its best in another Trouble double.

Trouble

“ I was hoping a decent calm discussion would ensue regards politics”

It does when you and Paddy are not around, this was proven the other day. Have you thought about jogging on elsewhere and create mayhem to another forum and let us have an adult discussion with different view’s without you bringing up rac ism, Brexit etc whenever they were never mentioned.

You deliberately bait a topic with twisted intent to change its direction.

Go look up the law on GBH and child beating to take your mind off things.