Member Info for Dorfan

ASI

“ exactly the kind of independence Brexit voters such as yourself wanted.”

There is no evidence to support that statement, cherry picking an argument again ASI?

ASI

The available data often tracks "licensed premises" (pubs, restaurants, and hotels combined) and typically reports net changes rather than the gross number of specific hotel closures. Below are some reported net changes:

2017: Down 1,950 premises

2018: Down 750 premises

2019: Down 400 premises

2020: Down 350 premises (this figure captures only part of the pandemic impact)

2021: Down 500 premises

2022: Down 500 premises

2023: Down 500 premises

2024: Down 350 premises (as of May 2025 data for the preceding year)

Since 2003 44,000 premises have closed, take away the above 5,000 that leaves 39,000 over 14 years which averages out at 2,785 a year.

Well you give the figures for the others, I was just interested and had time to do the pubs only.

Here are the figures for pub closures over the last 20 years? No huge spikes since Brexit, unlike before Brexit.

Year Number of Pub Closures (approx.)

2004 400

2005 400

2006 400

2007 700

2008 1,973 (56,791 to 54,818)

2009 1,352 (54,818 to 53,466)

2010 1,466 (53,466 to 52,000)

2013 1,300 (from 53,800 in 2012)

2015 1,100 (from 51,900 in 2014)

2016 500

2017 1,950

2018 750

2019 400

2020 350

2021 444

2022 386

2023 386

2024 350

Our resident Motley Fool expert has spoken. This article hasn’t told us anything new. We have peaked and now it is business as usual until the next step-change event, more buy backs or the Russian/Ukranian war ending.

Jatw

“ Buy backs are now established as part of shareholder returns.”

If you were on this board 3-4 years ago the sentiment by many members then was that there was no value in share buy backs. They just wanted to see a higher dividend.

LTI banged on for ages about the value of buybacks and took a lot of flack for it, but he was right, it is one of the reasons why the share price is where it is now.

I just wonder if Lloyds has a stop point as to when buybacks will end. We have gone from about 72B to somewhere in the mid 50’s now. If Lloyds is looking for a share price of about £2 then it will need to reduce the volume by up to 50% from where we are now, based on figures to hand.

Nothing wrong with my eyesight, I asked you you for data specific to what we were discussing and you blur it with documents that don’t have anything at all to do with our discussion.

ASI

This is what you posted

“It’s quite amusing that Poland has become the 7th most popular destination for British expats, with an estimated 184,900 having moved in 2024.”

I see that as 184,900 moved in the year of 2024, not in total from the past.

ASI

Are you saying 185,000 brits relocated to Poland in 2024?

ASI

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/interactive-publications/migration-2024

And what specific facts in this document are you referring to, just throwing a link to a report is not the answer.

ASI

Where in that document does it say Brexit was the main driver for emigration. If you know where it says it then let me know where, because I couldn’t see it.

Also where does it mention the Polish which we were discussing, can’t see any stats about them either.

Truth hurts then STP?

ASI

“… with an estimated 184,900 having moved in 2024”

Well, when I look up the stats I come up with a different version, see below. You are as bad as STP, Trouble etc who like to twist and distort information.

As of 2024, the British population in Poland is estimated at nearly 185,000, a significant increase from 41,000 in 2015.

ASI

“ many who came to the UK from the EU were made to feel unwelcome”

Perhaps you can show us some stats on this, as you like stats and real facts and keep telling us facts are primary to a discussion.

We know about a dozen Polish people, not many I know but they never felt they had any backlash from anyone to go home, perhaps this fabricated to make Brexit a scapegoat.

You also implied Brexit was the primary reason for the exodus of many European workers, especially the Poles being an example but that wasn’t true either was it?

ASI

“ Brexit made EU citizens feel unwelcome,”

So it wasn’t Brexit which you implied then?

ASI

There was another major factor for the Polish leaving the UK and that was the Polish government actively contacting 800,000 here in the UK to return with tax incentives.

Calls to Return

Official Urgings: In September 2019, Poland's ambassador to the UK, Arkady Rzegocki, sent a letter to around 800,000 Polish nationals in the UK advising them to "seriously consider" returning to Poland due to the uncertainty caused by Brexit and the improving economic situation in Poland.

Government Statements: The Polish Prime Minister at the time, Mateusz Morawiecki, repeatedly stated he wanted Polish workers to return to help the domestic economy grow, with phrases such as, "Give us our people back".

Motivation: These calls were driven by Poland's low unemployment rate and strong GDP growth, which made the country more economically viable for its citizens, as well as a desire to address labor shortages.

Incentives Offered

The most significant incentive was a tax break:

"Return Relief" Tax Exemption: In 2022, as part of the "Polish Deal" tax reform, the Polish government introduced the "ulga na powrót" (return relief) scheme.

Details: This program offers a four-year personal income tax exemption on annual earnings up to a certain threshold (around PLN 85,500, or approximately £17,000-£20,000, depending on exchange rates).

Eligibility: The relief is available to Poles (and some other EU citizens) who return to Poland after being a tax resident abroad for at least three consecutive years.

ASI

“ Brexit made EU citizens feel unwelcome, and many returned to their home countries in response.”

That isn’t totally true, another important factor for foreign trades people leaving was the reform of IR35. We know several Polish people working under PAYE and they stayed here.

I don’t understand why we have a construction skills shortage in the UK, there must be thousands of people with the required skills landing on our shores every day from Europe that want to do some real work.

If they don’t have construction skills do we know what skills they do have?

It’s like engaging conversation with a child, oh well, give it a few more years and there may be some maturity coming through.

Paddy

You find facts not to your liking, better start taking it in as the alternative lies by the current numpties in charge are just going to multiply over the coming months.