Member Info for Dorfan

Trouble - I feel no pain at all, everything is fine thanks.

On the other hand I sense you don’t like being reminded that you are a child beater that inflicted pain on young boys and probably left marks which lasted for days along with mental scars.

Out of interest, was it six of the best 12 or just as many as you could inflict until your arms couldn’t raise the cane any longer?

As I said before, my hatred which is of the Labour Party will end soon and I will be hate free, hooray!

But yours as a bigot all your life will never go away and being a child beater will also live with you for many years to come.

Out of interest, have you ever spoken to those young boys and apologised to them for those beatings?

Instead of counting sheep going to sleep do you count how many beatings you can do?

Having read some of the posts by our resident bigot ‘trouble’ on Farage and the Reform party, they also indicates the hatred he has against them.

So not only a bigot but someone that has deep hatred and fear of what the future holds.

Correction, 77 minutes, I must apologise profusely for not getting the facts right the first time.

Gray1

Answer 79 minutes

Says the person that whips little boys with a cane and I assume got great pleasure from it.

Gray1

The bigot has spoken, no surprise with his reply, especially when he posted this the other day:

‘ I’d not accountable to anyone on here.’

G13

“ Maths certainly isn’t your strong point DCB. Try again.”

Must be Reeves giving him some accountancy lessons. Probably explains the state of the economy.

ASI

“ There’s no evidence showing that fraud rose when contactless payments were increased to £100, so it’s unlikely to happen if banks can set their own limits.”

That may have been the case when the limit was set to £100, now if the banks raise it to say £300 or beyond it suddenly makes cards more attractive to the wrong people and potentially start a wave of thefts. You can’t say it is unlikely to happen, because it could.

In summary, while fraud hasn't spiked unexpectedly, the claim of "no evidence" is an oversimplification; there are ongoing discussions about the balance between convenience and potential risk as limits evolve.

As we are going off topic again and trouble is leading the way, here is a reminder of a post that went missing yesterday.

Approval Ratings and Leadership of the glorious Labour Party

Public sentiment toward the government and its leadership has turned sharply negative by the end of 2025:

Net Government Approval: Now stands at -57 to -60, a level of unpopularity similar to the Conservative government just before they lost the 2024 election.

Keir Starmer: His net favourability has hit a record low of -54, with only 18% of Britons viewing him favourably.

Rachel Reeves: Following her second budget in late 2025, her net favourability plummeted to -59, the lowest ever recorded by YouGov for a sitting Chancellor.

Regional and Demographic Shifts

Scotland: Scottish Labour's vote share has fallen to 17%, less than half of its 2024 General Election share, leaving them trailing the SNP (33%) and Reform UK (20%).

Young Voters: Support among those under 35 has splintered, with significant numbers moving toward the Greens and Reform UK.

Labour Heartlands: "Red Wall" seats in the Midlands and North of England are once again seen as highly vulnerable to Reform UK according to seat projections.

Seat Projections

Based on current data, Electoral Calculus predicts that if a general election were held today, Labour would lose more than three-quarters of its current seats, potentially returning just 100 MPs and falling into third place behind Reform UK and the Conservatives.

Poor old Reeves, comes first in a poll for having the lowest polled score for favourability ever.

You will only get fraud protection reimbursement if you report your card lost or stolen before it is potentially used I understand. So a customer could be out by hundreds or even more for those that have no cap at all.

I am quite happy to keep mine at £100, no big deal to put a PIN number in.

And for 2026 it only gets better for pensioners, I mean worse.

In 2026, UK pensioners face several financial and structural challenges, largely stemming from long-term tax freezes and changes to retirement eligibility.

Taxation and "Fiscal Drag"

Income Tax Thresholds: With the personal tax allowance frozen at £12,570 until 2031, the 4.8% state pension increase in April 2026 brings the full new state pension to £12,548 annually. This leaves only a £22 margin before pensioners begin paying income tax on any additional income, such as private pensions or modest savings interest.

Dividend and Savings Tax: Starting April 2026, the basic rate of dividend tax rises from 8.75% to 10.75%, and the higher rate rises to 35.75%. This primarily impacts retirees who rely on investment portfolios outside of tax-free ISAs.

Rising State Pension Age

Initial Phasing to 67: For those born between April 1960 and March 1961, the State Pension age begins a gradual rise from 66 years to 66 years and several months, depending on the birth month.

Legislated Increase: 2026 marks the start of the legislated transition to a universal State Pension age of 67, which will be fully phased in by 2028.

Investment and Savings Risks

Lower Interest Rates: The Bank of England is expected to continue cutting interest rates throughout 2026. While this may help mortgage holders, it negatively affects pensioners who rely on interest from cash savings for their daily living expenses.

Reduced Annuity Rates: Declining interest rates are predicted to soften annuity rates, meaning those retiring in 2026 may receive less guaranteed annual income for their pension "pot" compared to those who retired in 2024 or 2025.

Cost of Living and Benefits

Persistent High Energy Costs: Although the government announced energy levy reductions that may save households roughly £150 from April 2026, energy bills are forecast to remain approximately 45% higher than they were in 2021.

Benefit Restrictions: The restriction of the Winter Fuel Payment to only those on means-tested benefits continues, leaving millions of low-to-middle-income pensioners without this seasonal support for a second consecutive winter.

Are pensioners really winners in 2025?

In 2025, several factors created financial and administrative challenges for UK pensioners, primarily driven by frozen tax thresholds and the rising cost of living.

Financial Pressures

"Fiscal Drag" into Income Tax: While the State Pension increased under the "Triple Lock," income tax thresholds (Personal Allowance) remained frozen at £12,570. This pushed more pensioners into paying income tax for the first time or increased the tax burden for those already paying it.

Cost-of-Living Struggles: High energy bills and food prices continued to affect older people, particularly those on modest incomes or with disabilities. Research indicated that nearly half of older people in households with incomes under £20,000 felt less financially secure than in the previous year.

Winter Fuel Payment Changes: The restriction of the Winter Fuel Payment to only those receiving certain means-tested benefits (like Pension Credit) meant many low-income pensioners who did not qualify for benefits lost this essential seasonal support

.

Administrative and Regulatory Changes

Stricter DWP Banking Rules: New Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) rules introduced in late 2025 gave banks more power to share data and perform stricter verification checks. This led to temporary payment delays for some pensioners, particularly those with outdated account details or unverified identities.

Pension Inheritance Tax Changes: The 2025 Autumn Budget confirmed that unspent pension pots would be included in estates for Inheritance Tax (IHT) purposes from April 2027. While the tax itself begins in 2027, the 2025 announcement required immediate changes to long-term estate planning.

Future Outlook and Vulnerabilities

Rising State Pension Age: Although the age remained at 66 for most of 2025, it began transitioning to 67 for those born in certain periods. There was also increased speculation in 2025 about pushing the age to 68 sooner than originally planned.

Pension Credit Under-occupancy: A significant number of eligible pensioners (estimated at 880,000) continued to miss out on Pension Credit due to complex application processes or lack of awareness, leaving them without extra income and access to the Winter Fuel Payment.

Emergency Tax on Withdrawals: Savers accessing private pension lump sums for the first time often faced "emergency" tax codes, resulting in substantial over-taxation that had to be manually reclaimed from HMRC.

STP

I see you didn’t read all the article, especially this bit.

‘ Investing solely in the UK would be a risky strategy though and diversification remains important.

AJ Bell’s research shows 52% of its investors also plan to back global shares, with 35% favouring the US.’

And the main reason people invested in a cash ISA is because it offered a safety net where they didn’t have to think about choices and risk. I suspect many will still use the lower limit and put the rest in a safe building society interest account.

Paddy

“ anti government ”

Talking about the state of the economic climate and how the data shows we are not in a good place is ‘anti government’ then.

As a typical Labour supporter you want to suppress any news that is showing how the government is failing and only post news that shows it in a good light.

Well, that isn’t going to happen, there has to and will be a balanced set of posts to show the good, the bad and the ugly.

ASI

“ Those figures suggest Labour are doing well”

Well that statement is not really true, just by looking at it as high level statement it can be seen as misleading.

The question that would be best to accompany it below gives another twist to why we have less jobs available.

‘how many jobs are potentially not being advertised because of the economic climate in Uk now?’

While there is no single official figure for "unadvertised" jobs, economic data from late 2025 indicates a significant "hiring freeze" where hundreds of thousands of roles are likely being held back or withdrawn.

Current Vacancy Trends (Late 2025)

Official Vacancies: As of October 2025, there are 723,000 officially advertised vacancies.

Role Reductions: Total estimated vacancies have fallen by 115,000 (13.8%) compared to late 2024, continuing a three-year decline from a peak of 1.3 million in 2022.

Internal Hiring Focus: Employers are increasingly relying on internal mobility and upskilling to fill gaps rather than advertising externally to avoid rising costs like Employer National Insurance contributions.

Indicators of "Hidden" or Unadvertised Roles

The current economic climate has created a "low-hire, low-fire" stagnation where many potential roles are not reaching the public market.

Hiring Intentions: In late 2025, only 11% of British businesses reported plans to increase headcount, compared to 28% the previous year.

Business-Critical Only: Many firms have moved to a "wait and see" approach, hiring only for business-critical roles or directly replacing leavers rather than creating new advertised positions.

Internal Mobility: Up to 25% of employers expect to maintain current staff levels rather than expanding, often filling essential needs through internal talent pools to protect agility and manage budgets.

Withdrawal of Roles: In some sectors, like retail, major employers have announced job cuts or the removal of entry-point roles (down by roughly 200,000 since 2017) specifically due to increased employment costs introduced in April 2025.

Sectors with Most "Held Back" Roles

Construction & Retail: These sectors saw some of the steepest declines in vacancy postings (down 20% to 26%) as firms delay projects and recruitment due to cost concerns.

Professional Services: Highly responsive to economic shifts, this sector has seen a sharp increase in hiring freezes and a reliance on existing staff to absorb workloads.

SME Impact: Small businesses (fewer than 10 staff) have reduced job postings by over 21%, often opting not to replace staff who leave due to thin margins.

TFE

“ …..everything they attempt either ‘U’ turns or has the opposite effect.”

Well, they are doing pretty good so far, and will still be counting over the next three years.

It is not possible to give one definitive number for the Labour Party's U-turns under Keir Starmer, as sources count them differently, with varying counts depending on whether a policy tweak is considered a full reversal or if pre-election shifts are included.

Media outlets and political opponents have counted anywhere from 6 major U-turns since the election to over 27 U-turns (and counting) when including policy shifts made during his time as Leader of the Opposition.

STP

“ Labour winning economic strategy”

This statement is not shared by many others to being true.

Labour’s economic strategy in government prioritises stability and fiscal discipline, but this caution increasingly risks constraining effective action. While the focus on growth, productivity, and sound public finances is clear, there remains limited evidence that current policies are capable of delivering the scale or speed of growth needed to reverse declining living standards or repair overstretched public services.

Strict adherence to fiscal rules has narrowed policy choices, raising questions about whether public investment is sufficient to drive productivity improvements or address long-standing structural weaknesses in the UK economy. At the same time, reluctance to pursue significant tax reform limits the government’s ability to fund meaningful improvements in services, leaving difficult trade-offs largely unresolved.

As a result, the strategy risks being defined more by caution than by ambition. While it may provide short-term reassurance to markets, it has yet to demonstrate how stability alone will translate into sustained growth, higher productivity, or tangible improvements in living standards. The test of whether this is a “winning” economic strategy now rests on outcomes, not intent—and those outcomes remain uncertain.

Trouble

“ Lloyds is certainly benefiting from the firm foundations and stability in the overall economy which is the basis on which all future growth depends.”

That is not a true statement shared by many others, as noted by a response below.

….while the financial sector provides a degree of financial stability that allows institutions like Lloyds to operate soundly, the wider macroeconomy lacks the "firm foundations" necessary for substantial, long-term growth as described in the original statement. Lloyds is benefiting from its own strong management and balance sheet, but it also navigates a challenging and uncertain economic environment.

The outlook for 2026 is certainly a gloomy one. No sign of any real growth that this government is looking for.

The UK is expected to experience modest economic growth in 2026, with most major forecasters predicting a GDP increase in the range of 1.2% to 1.4%.

Key forecasts from December 2025 include:

Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR): Forecasts 1.4% growth for 2026.

British Chambers of Commerce (BCC): Predicts growth of 1.2% in 2026.

Confederation of British Industry (CBI): Upgraded its forecast to 1.3% for 2026.

OECD: Forecasts 1.2% growth for 2026.

EY ITEM Club: Predicts 0.9% growth in 2026, a slowdown from 2025.

This growth is expected to be slower than the 2025 figures (which were generally revised upwards) due to several factors:

Subdued Private Demand: Weak consumer sentiment and slow real income growth are expected to weigh on household spending.

Weak Business Investment: Ongoing cost pressures and global uncertainty are limiting investment appetite, with business investment growth forecast to be low.

Tight Fiscal Policy: Tax increases (such as frozen tax thresholds) and constrained public spending are likely to act as headwinds to the economy.

Rising Unemployment: The labour market is expected to loosen, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to around 5% in 2026.

Overall, forecasters describe the outlook as the economy remaining "stuck in low gear" with persistent underlying weaknesses despite the modest positive growth