Member Info for Doc.Daneeka

Interesting comment under the COPD tweet from someone claiming to have doubled their money. No dates given but buying from 41p to 70p and selling at intervals up to 181. The only time in recent history when the share was traded in the 41 - 70p range was between the first dosing on SG016 in March 2020 and Magic Monday 4 months later. "Heidi Oil " bought in low and then stayed in - having only a small number of shares on the day itself - stayed in as it passed 240 in August, then topped up significantly 3 times - timing her buys close to the bottom of the fluctuations before bailing sometime between September 2020 and the Sprinter crash 18 months later.

Looking back at my own history of buying high and sitting like a plum until the world caught fire and beyond, it gives an interesting perspective on how a good trader - someone who believed in the drug, but not too much - might have done well out of the period that gave most of us only misery.

It makes Axe's explanation of his trading into profit after Feb 22 even more plausible. And it's a salutory lesson.

Heidi Oil believed in it - but not too much to risk everything when she had a decent profit. Even though she was IN long before me - she made the trading decisions that ultimately doubled her money after I - and many of you I suspect - invested.

Obviously I'm not in any way expert in the share trading side of things so would welcome any other perspectives on this.

If she is a member here I'd like to know when she bailed - was it as early as September 2020 - or was it in Nov 2021 ?

https://twitter.com/Heid_oil/status/1754213282691383724/photo/1

2 new US studies supporting wider use of Paxlovid for Covid in the US

https://news.utexas.edu/2024/02/26/increased-use-of-paxlovid-could-cut-hospitalizations-deaths-and-costs/

This one a mathematical model based on the original EUA'd trial in 2021 and on recorded viral transmission levels over 10 months in 2022.

"using Paxlovid on 20% of symptomatic COVID-19 patients during the omicron wave would have resulted in up to 850,000 fewer hospitalizations and saved up to $170 billion. Even with lower transmission levels of the virus, the researchers estimate that an expanded use of Paxlovid could save approximately 30,000 lives during an outbreak.

The second trial studied eMR of 45k patients in North Carolina. 10% received Paxlovid and showed a huge 89% efficacy against the non Paxlovid cohort.

"Paxlovid use was one of the strongest predictors of avoiding hospitalization, and only 3 patients (0.1%) in the group were hospitalized for infection. The 28-day cumulative incidence of hospitalization for people who received Paxlovid was 0.06% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.02% to 0.17%) compared to 0.52% (95% CI, 0.46% to 0.60%) among non-recipients. "

Lots of qualifications for this general population study - Paxlovid patients twice as likely to be vaccinated - more were over 70 & fewer were black or hispanic or living in low income areas - but Paxlovid was by far the main indicator of a successful outcome at 28 days.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/paxlovid-use-tied-84-lower-risk-hospital-care

Relevance here is that Paxlovid is still EUA'd here and the only outpatient antiviral still working against Covid. I managed to help my mum - who'd just recovered from Cancer - to get it, and also advised a friend's mum with COPD to ask her Irish GP about it - which she did and was prescribed.

Covid is still all around us and I know many people who've had a really tough time with it through the winter - mostly because of the long interval between boosters or previous infection. If the govt doesn't extend the boosters to the general population - or at least to those from 50 to 65 - many more younger people will have a tough time with it - and even those in vulnerable cohorts will struggle as numbers for booster uptake fall as they have done recently

Worth bearing in mind if you have a vulnerable relative.

No relevance to Synairgen in this since our ambitions in the outpatient setting came to an end - but it's worth celebrating the last man standing, and we still know that if the Sprinter deep dive can be verified there will still be a sizeable inpatient population waiting for SNG.

As far as we are aware Casanovalabs will be paid for any work they contribute to UNIVERSAL or the SNG P2s. We have nothing official desribing the nature of the relationship or to suggest they're doing it for free. Why would they ?

As usual - no idea what you're on about H4R - but always nice to see how the words tumble out.

If you missed C4 News last night they had a wonderful piece on MAGA - with a surprising, but not surprising, comedy turn from our 49 day PM. Only in America.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsSoRMusCCE

Control c control v Tommy - but you cant swallow your own words. We'll turn you into a realistic soon enough

I think that's unfair Tommy. Mani has been banging on about finnce for a couple of months - a lone voice for most of it as our as our bleeding eardrums can bear witness to. And many of us had pointed out more recently that it really is getting tight and will be a near run thing - before you changed your "they have all the cash they need" postiion a little earlier. She doesn't have to describe the method they'll use to get more money if they do need to get mopre money to keep the lights on. I agreed partially with Spacman's post that it'd be much better to have sound financials before the P2s even start if there's any chance they'll run out in mid trial - and posted that any delay from H1 would make this almost an inevitability. I think this is where they are. If the trials start soon all may be fine, but if they don't or there are delays in filling or cost over-runs the company will be in a tight spot.

It's good though - she's had loads of flack and hopefully others will now allow this to become a topic for debate. A bigger hope it that having proven that her point has merit - she'll stop posting on it completley. If there's a deal afoot it will be with us very sooon - and if there isn't and the flaming meteor is truly inbound I'd rather not be looking up as it enters our atmosphere.

" Doc.Dan Tommy shared his news last year, and we all wished him well ! "

are you picking me up for saying best wishes to someone with cancer Mani ?

Well said Aether. Helluva time to drop this Tommy - but I guess there's never an easy time. Wishing you well as I'm sure everyone on here does.

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" What test are you expecting them to have invented or collaborated on beyond this that will further identify the trialing population before they get ill ? "

This was a specific question for you Tommy - and/or any of the other more scientifically minded posters who'd like to answer it. A layman's question if you like, but one I hope you'll answer without yet again posting the same tired paragraphs from old reports or communiques. Answer with your own words.

The background to the question is that whilst it's highly likely that Synairgen is working with Casanovalabs et al on specific auto-abs for IFN assays that may help identify a subset of between 10 and 20% of patients before they get to ICU - it's fanciful in the extreme to imagine the Sprinter & COPD deep dives and the data harvested from UNIVERSAL is going to unlock non Ifn related biomarkers that point out which hospitalised patients will do badly from Covid . As if the entirety of the multi trillion dollar scientist research establishment has either overlooked or not managed to discover this 4 years after the pandemic began. Not thought it worthy of investigation.... when a test of this nature would benefit every BP that has ever consider treating hospitalised respiratory virus patients.

My own feeling is that it's great that an Auto-abs Assay specifically for IFns exists. We're blessed that there's a ready made test which we can hopefully use in our trial. It's a gift from the gods (and one that has nothing to do with Synairgen ) but to imagine they're working on something beyond this is delusional.

Of course, if they'd kept samples from Sprinter we probably wouldn't need any of this - so don't be telling me how amazing the company is. Philip Monk took the drug on a workd tour in 2021 and somehow decided collecting samples wasn't necessary

They'll be able to id those with auto-abs for Ifns earlier than ICU - which might be 10 or 20% depending on age.

They can do that for every respiratory virus admission.

What test are you expecting them to have invented or collaborated on beyond this that will further identify the trialing population before they get ill ? I mean with no money - and despite what you say - no specific expertise in auto-abs or any kind of biometric assays.

And why do they need it, if the Sprinter deep dive is so easily provable with standard metrics of age - co morbities and severity of illness. with the add-on of a small subset of auto-ab patients that they can test on admission.

There isn't any profiling for "someone who will become severely ill" - and the work being done now won't identify it either except for the auto-ab ifn cohort. ( maybe 10% maybe 20% in older patients)

The patients we need ARE ALREADY ILL - THEY'ERE ALREADY IN ICU AND OF A CERTAIN AGE, ICU and THEY ALL HAVE CO-MORBIDITIES OR AUTO-ABS.

You think somehow UNIVERSAL and Synairgen are engaged in work that all the huge phamaceutical concerns in the world are not interested in and aren't also attemopting to solve - and that somehow - with zero funds and a UNIVERSAL inclusion criteria of anyone with a confirmed respiratory infection - world class ground breaking work is somehow being done ? You're delusional. Peering at your endless non related IFn studies and inflating any mention of the relevance of Auto-abs and imagining that somehow Synairgen - with no in-house specialists in any of the dark arts of genomic profiling, is about to make a discovery of monumental global significance.

We'll see the trails soon enough and you'll be back tracking on all your nonsense when you see they cohoprts are almost almost right there in front of us and the assays play a minor role in identification of a minor sub-cohort of a minor cohort

"we have an expensive drug with no way of accurately assigning patients."

This is only partially true. The Sprinter deep dive points really clearly to the cohort. Our patients are identifiable in the hospital without the clever modern profiling asays we seem to be waiting for. Age, co-morbitiies and severity of disease will be the basis of the inclusion criteria. Plus whatever % they hope to id using auto-abs. This might be between 10 and 20% depending again on age of patient, and with just one chance of succes or failure - the 10-20% will be critical. Other data analysis, from COPD particularly, points to the secondary endpoints of viral clearance.

If they had the money for another large P2/3 trial they'd have pushed on already without waiting for the extra profiling tests.

That's a lot of work Trinity and if you don't mind me saying - wasted endeavour. We all know who Manio is and her foibles and inconsistencies ( from top ramp to dead in the water over Christmas '22 ) but she's also an enthusiast and has probably lost as much as any of us. I prefered her other persona to be honest but in both incarnations she's been argumentative and essentially harmless. Not to patronise you Mani - I mean harmless in the best way. People get fed up with you, just as they get fed up of me or even Tommyd when we post too much and won't leave it alone.

Trinity - I'm surprised that you - one of the most balanced posters on the board - should have such a bee in the bonnet about Mani - nothing you've quoted is really offensive is it ? But then I guess there are strange enmities on this bb that defy investigation and are often beyond resolution.

Sad that the anniversary has passed in this way. I thought someone might attempt a rousing "to infinity and beyond " encomium, or at least give u8s one or two reasons to be cheerful - 2 years on.

That's where we are though I guess - picking over the bones of tangentially associated trials and following breadcrumb trails into the dark forest. Shame RM didn't muster himself for some kind of New Year's update. We might all be feeling a little reassured that there's somebody behind the blinds.

We're still only 7 weeks into the 26 week trialing window though - so plenty of chance this will still end well. Not the "well" of 2021 but better than 5p anyway.

They didn't work Ghia - why not just explain ?

Good point Fruits - but if it delivers the fast and impressive results we all want to see on the back end - it will also take longer at the start. UNIVERSAL has been filling relatively quickly but with inclusion criteria of >18 and a confirmed viral infection it's able to add almost everyone who is wheeled in to ICU. Only a fraction of these patientswill be eligible for our P2s, and without wanting to reignite the Winter v Summer debate there will be 50% fewer patients and these patients will not be as ill as the winter admissions. ( although if there is a heatwave, summer deaths are actually higher and happen really quickly - 3 days - after admission )

There will be enough overall admissions for small trials to fill, but using auto-ab or even the metrics from Sprinter and COPD will make it so much more dificult to find them. Which is of course how you want it because then they will do really well on SNG and we'll pass the trials with flying colours. You can also imagine that if they do trial with ventilated patients those results WILL appear very quickly.

Haha - what specifically do you find "artful" Fruits ?

It's going to be a near run thing. So much hangs on how soon the trials start - how quickly they fill and how long data analysis takes. If they can complete and get to TLR as quickly as SGO16 which they managed in 4 months from FPD to TLR - then we can hope for a readout before Christmas. If the trials are delayed for any reason then 2025 is more likely.

I have nothing to say on the financials except that it's going to be close. Trialing years are the most expensive years and we have to hope that costs have stayed within the projections they made 6 months ago. Saying funding is secure until "at least September 2024" does make you wonder how far into 2025 they can go without cutting Maude's hours.

If they know costs are getting out of hand and the timeline is likely to slip then I tend to agree with Spacman's suggestion that they might consider a partner before the P2s commence. It would be a shock and a dilution much earlier than we hoped for - but the last thing anyone wants is for funds to run out in mid trial or before any data has been assessed and the whole game being lost. I didn't know much about Faron but looked at the LSE thread after that post yesterday and it does have some relevance. The whole potential billion £ enterprise at jeopardy for want of a few million in day to day operating costs. Vultures circling and the end of the trialing process years away. It's not Synairgen of course - and will recover with a cash injection from someone, but it's a warning of what can happen if you have no income stream and run out of cash.

I've only ever been talking about the ACTIV 2 page. Maybe you need to read it again.

Leaving you to it now - you're obbviously booked for the whole weekend again - have fun