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Thank you BioEnergy, and welcome. Are you a shareholder?
Yes, we all know that. And have known it since June. The reason for being invested in Napster is not for the pending 1H21 results (within 9 days), but launch of the new App, expected 4Q.
There aren't quarterly numbers published, but half year/full year. You haven't given me anything here to worry about. Its quite possible the 1H21 numbers and associated commentary may disappoint. However with the share price where it is, the downside is limited to zero, but the upside is possibly in '000's%. Its all about the future, not the past.
Just my opinion.
Company has confirmed to me 1H21 results will be published before 30 Sept. This will be the first result including Napster.
Last year was delayed but the company was also suspended and going through the reverse merger with Napster.
Anything above £60m revenues will be a positive surprise. Below £50m a disappointment, however what really matters now is delivery of the New App, on time. Look for commentary on that.
Whats going on.
The move this week really started last month, following the puke 20th July, followed by a rally then a consolidation. For the last 6 weeks selling has slowly been exhausted, and I guess people who have been working at analysing the company, and industry have competed their work. I imagine this involved discussions with the company (only because given the volumes bought over the last 6 weeks, no one would commit without complete due diligence). So assume those that have been buying recently know more than anyone, have faith in the business plan, time line, and delivery. Results for 1H21 out in three weeks, another 6-8 weeks to App release, and that will be kick-off for global marketing, telco contract announcements, partners, etc etc...
Don't worry about the move from 1.1p to 1.8p, you haven't missed anything. The company on my numbers today is worth around £300m (=10p), then depending on App success, anywhere around £600m-£800m in a year (=20p-25p), and who knows after that. As momentum builds, more attention will be drawn to Napster, technical players, and eventually serious institutional investors. But that's a way off yet. Then there is the possibility of a US listing, which would draw more scrutiny, and new demand. Or, a major industry player takes interest. Just my opinion, do your own research.
Your experience is not the same as mine. When I have put a series of questions to Management (several occasions) I have always received a response. Not all questions were answered as some were commercially sensitive. OK I get that, no problem. Yes I am frustrated it's taking longer than I expected, but we have a very clear time line that's been published and I expect it to be delivered. Right now I don't believe there is anything to say, as what can be released will happen at the 1H21 before Sept end. The App comes 4Q. After that comes all the promotion, marketing and hype. Judge it after that.
I disagree HorsesGob
Users today are used to multi offerings within an App. The benefits of seeing everything under one App, the ability to maximise subscriber base, and see everything on offer outweigh the downside risk. I am sure the tech gurus will be using best practice, experience, and the top talent to deliver everything to our satisfaction.
Cunir, refer to the chairman's statement at the FY20 result. He makes it pretty clear the new App will be something pretty special:
"our new platform will offer the only streaming membership where fans can get access to an entire repertoire of an artist’s work, be it on stage, in the studio or under the radar. We believe the front row belongs to everybody and our new subscription service will provide all area access including the ability to be part of sold out “360” shows live from across the globe, 4K+ video, hi-resolution and immersive audio, interviews, documentaries and downloadable libraries on any device, uninterrupted by advertising.
Following the launch of the new platform Napster will soon deliver a cross-platform experience that spans traditional listening on mobile devices, through to shared experiences on living room big screens – and beyond..."
Mel, I seriously doubt N&G are in this to only double their money, nor are the other large shareholders. Minimum 10x, but hopefully multiples multiples of that.
Napster should be trading now around £300m market cap =10p/share. A year after App release, assuming a decent takeup with telco industry and partner support, cross selling from artists, merchandise transactions, with potential ticket, and VR, 360° footage etc, across mobile, Web, VR sets, and TV, we could easily see double that figure. In 5 years if NAPS has chipped away to take a 5% to 10% slice of the growing streaming, and associated technology growth across the music industry, a market cap of £billions is quite possible.
For a long time Mel you were too optimistic, now you appear too pessimistic. Hopefully somewhere in the middle is reality.
Just my view, nothing personal.
Slow day, everyone awY ahead of the long weekend...?
Money never sleeps...
Napster worth much more than you think...
1. On published info, NAPS should be trading today at mkt cap £300m or price =10p.
2. IF mgt comments are right on 2022/23 revenues, then mkt cap of £600m is achievable by next year, = 20p.
3. What's the model and strategy worth to someone else? £1bn = 30p?
4. Based on 10% of Spotify, NAPS os worth anywhere between 45p and £1.90, depending various assumptions, and timescale.
Honestly, think ahead, not behind. Its all there for the patient investor, and those who can see the opportunity.
Just my view, and what I base my investment on.
Good luck everyone. Happy Times...
Just thinking down the track, but what could Napster be worth if the App comes on time, and evolves into a must have tool?
Look at SPOTIFY. What if Napster was to achieve 10% of Spotify's market cap. Let's be super conservative, and not use today's Spotify mkt cap (almost US$40bn), but the low point since its listing, ~US$20bn, or about £14bn.
At 10% Napster's implied market cap would be ~£1.4bn, which on today's share count comes out at ~46p NAPS share price.
Of course, using today's Spotify market cap, NAPS could be worth ~95p, and if 20% of its market cap was achieved, it could be worth ~£1.90/share...
Just my view, playing with what if's, do your own analysis. GLA...
Themis, the sale of 1.5m shares at 1.27p was later cancelled, and the following trade was a buy of 1.5m at 1.33. There was also another unrelated buy of 1m bought at 1.33 earlier in the day. Not so much a selling day, but people buying.
There is plenty of good news out there that people are listening to. The potential upside in Napster is in '000's of %, as I have said before. Just be patient. Just my opinion.
Two data points. Take your pick. Should Napster end up with 1% of global revenues, I'd be very disappointed... 10% would be a nice target...
1. Global music revenues expected to be U$65bn in 2023
2. Global music streaming industry had U$21bn revenues in 2020, and expected to grow at 17.8% CAGR out to 2027
Either way, you end with ~£1 50 to £2.00/ share
Just my view, using the facts. GLA
Theatre is complicated. Moreso than music. Theatrical performances have dozens of performers, and hundreds of support staff, logistics. In a Covid world impossible to manage and operate. Nothing will happen until the theatre world opens up properly, especially in the US. The principles of JG wanting a virtual world for his theatrical empire are more sound today than 18 months ago, but the ducks have to me aligned for it to happen. Priorities right now are to bed down the music side. This is not rocket science, it's common sense, and what has been said publicly. Just my view.
Today's RNS is the expected substantial shareholding from N&G, but after doing the sums, I calculate N&G have NOT sold any stock, as at 13 August. Many people have assumed they were selling stock out there to keep the price low. They have not been doing that, which is very encouraging. There is another CLN conversion due by N&G, most likely before the App launch in 4Q.
Most encouraging and another step in the right direction.
NAPSTER looks significantly undervalued to me. The subscriber numbers mentioned in the AGM last week lead me to believe the market cap should be closer to £300-400m right now, or ~10x higher. When will we all wake up and smell the coffee? Just my opinion, GLA.
I wonder what the subscriber numbers could be in a years time with a new App, a proper marketing campaign, and plenty of product.... pretty easy to figure that the £600m revenues could be beaten...
Next time line is 1H21 results, N&G conversions to complete, App launch, marketing campaign...
Reference: "...looming threat of another £18m round of massive dilution on the cards if resolutions are approved at next week's AGM and new fundraising decisions are made quickly thereafter..."
In my view the resolution is there just in case its needed. This resolution has been in every AGM since 2016, so nothing different this time round.
You make some valid points, and I guess we have to wait and see about the App. I cannot help but feel there is likely to be positive news flow leading up to App launch. Surely a number of large regional, or even global telcos would be on board by then, and maybe some Napster B2B deals announced.
Ultimately though, Napster should have a US following, and a new marketing face into App launch may just attract new interest, and put a more realistic valuation on the whole company. Recent board appointments, and N&G commitment gives me confidence this is the path we take. However, nothing happens overnight. It takes time to hatch, but the prize should be worth it. Mistakes have been made perhaps, lessons learnt, we are all suffering. However I don't run the company nor have any intimate knowledge of what obsticals have been faced, and dealt with over the past few years. From my armchair it might look simple, but no doubt it isn't.
The future though, looks brighter.
Just my view ...
The rest of the CLNs to be converted is in the price. Everyone knows its coming.
If the SP was to be suspended pending a large transaction, would that be a bad thing? For traders perhaps, but LTHs should benefit from that. Encouraging to see a more balanced view regarding risks and outcomes, but its all there for people with patience.
GLA, just my opinion.