The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Institutions hold 84% of the shares and given the historical share price I can't see them agreeing to a bid below £6.50.
Great results with the only downside that dividend only up 2.5% instead of the expected 5%. Rather mean when their cash generation was even higher than last update at over £2bn.
The last paragraph of the article is critical.
It states charges capped at 0.75% since 2015 - so any future one-off payments will only be for any schemes prior to 2015 above 0.75%.. Any possible future one-off payments will be lower as these schemes close.
Thanks to Meconopsis for link to the article.
So it's a one off cost which the market would have priced in. When they announced the additional £400m cash the share price hardly rose and today it's down over 4% - this market is crazy.
Personally this is a great topping up opportunity. Let's hope they announce a new M&A deal on Friday. Solvency is back above 180% and it's been a year since the last purchase.
GLA
Dividend should be 27.3p on Friday or 54.6 per annu m. I topped up at 484 including costs which is 12.8% return. No brainer.
It's only on the closed books so hopefully it's a one off cost as per the early exit fees hit.
The additional £400m cash announced in November more than covers this.
Looks like the usual over reaction by the market - I've topped up.
The £400 million will take Solvency back above the key 180% level.
If they don't buy another company and Solvency is above 180% for a while, there will be pressure for buy back or possibly a special. With only 1 billion shares I'd love them to use some of their cash pile to buy shares. About £13 billion of cash after debt and interest with a market cap of £5.06 million - it's a no brainer. Aviva does it - why not PHNX.
I'm expecting a 5% dividend increase like last year, especially as they have announced an extra £400 million of cash since the half year presentation.
If there's no major financial or political events before 22 March I can see this climbing to about 530 as it did at half year.
GLA
Just have to wait for interest and bond rates to start falling later this year.
The election will probably cause a drop, but long term this will rise as bond rates drop.
AUM was up £10 billion at HY which was excellent news and should continue to recover as inflation and interest rates drop.
Back in November they advised an additional £400 million in this year's results so I'm hoping dividend increase will again be 5% - they can certainly afford as cash after debt and interest should be around £13 billion.
5% increase would be 27.3p dividend.
Have they made any comment today on how they are going to pay for this?
I've bought back in today after a break and just seen the RNS of 13 November.
£31 million cash and Parasol paying all rent due - I'm guessing that doesn't include the arrears yet.
They are moving certain leases away from MySpace to other providers which I think is excellent news.
Personally I would think a dividend cut is very unlikely as they have the 7£ million property sale money and should have more income from rents with the rent increases in HY2.
Hopefully they've started getting rent arrears out of MySpace and Parasol. If not surely it's time to move the leases on to other providers, especially MySpace.
If they have started getting the rent arrears results should be very good.
UK election dip.
This is tricky as looks like USA cutting rates from March with three cuts now pencilled in not two. That could well offset any UK election dip so not straightforward imho.
UK 10 year bond rate down below 4% at 3.95% and markets think US rates will be cut starting in May.
Not long to wait and probable 27.3p dividend in the meantime.
Very happy days soon.
GLA
UK 10 year bond down 20 points in a week. Forecast is inflation now below 5% - October figure released on 15 November.
GLA
Hi @CraigB
They might need to use some of the £7 million to sort out the MySpace issue.
If that gets sorted in H2 then every chance of another £5 million share buyback as the board is keen to reduce the gap between the share price and the NAV.
GLA
Typo - actually 0.56%
Just noticed the above happened on 29 September.
Their short was 1.10% on 7 August so nearly halved.
Couldn't resist buying more at this price - 5% dividend increase equates to 10.8% and a growing dividend going forward, cash generation forecast at £1.5 billion for 2023 with debt at only 25%, with another £250 million debt paid off early 2024.
Last week Barclays again set its target price at 718p.
Berenberg has a target price of 739p and values PHNX at £8.7 billion.
Just block them like I do, so you're only (hopefully) reading relevant posts. Every share I've viewed on here has them.