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There's also the general election in late 2024 to consider. Sunak and Hunt may look at some change in overall government income/expenditure as a reason to reduce/change a very unpopular tax to woo voters.
For the newbies
Oil hedging
2022 19mn barrels
2023 11mn Barrels
Gas
2022 24mn barrels
2023 22mn barrels
2022 FCF actual looks to be at the high end of 2.0-2.2bn forecast so scope to pay off even more debt than planned at FY2022. If they do this totally feasible can be debt free at HY2023 even with increased WT. GLA
Whoops 2.3bn debt at HY21
My last calculation had hedging for both O&G dropping from 42.5% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2023. Debt was 1.1bn at HY22 down from 2.1bn at HY21. At that rate should be debt free by HY23. I'd expect them to keep any treats for The results in March.
And increased dividend please. 22 cents dividend cost is only $186mn even without the rest of the advised share buyback - about $183mn if they complete it. 24 cents or higher would be great and the market would love it.
The trading update on 9 January could be very interesting - possibly the rumour of buying the two CNOOC interests in Mexico might happen.
Trading update on 19 January and FY results on 9 March.
Appomattox is 36,750 boed and CNOOC has 21% and Shell 79%.
Stampede is 56,000 boed and forecast is viable through to 2044 - also 29 mmcfd gas. CNOOC has 25%.
Hi I've looked at the Trading Economics site and UK gas average from 1 October to date is circa 260p.
Excellent post - couldn't agree more.
It was mentioned this time last year - £10 million saving on lease through to 2027.
Just see what happened with the Admiral results last week - scary. £500 million extra Mobability gross written premium business from 2023 and now saving £10 million per annum on Bromley office. Also whiplash claim savings to consider.
Hi Paul I've sold shares day before ex-dividend and bought them back the day they are ex-dividend and slightly lower even allowing for missed dividend and charges,so no tax issues.
Newish CEO hasn't paid a special since she became CEO and the CFO said in th is months trading update that they favour share buyback so special very unlikely - unless they make a massive saving in the reduction of whiplash claims - which they didn't refer to in the update. They might be keeping that back as good news in the final results.
Given the high solvency ratio I reckon they'll go back to the pre-covid share buy back of £150 million of shares when they announce the FY results - and slightly increase the final dividend.
Hi I haven't seen that new rating anywhere - where did you see it.
I think it's down due to lowest new car production in October since 1991 due to semi conductor shortage. Let's see what happens with Tuesday's update as whiplash claims have plummeted since the new legislation kicked in from June, so they should have an update on that.
HL drops to as low as £5.95 trade if you trade a lot.
First buyback was from 9 March to 11 June with 16,623,215shares bought back. New one started on 5 August. 1,347,878,524 shares on 5 August so with price above and below £3 since then I reckon it should be down to about 1,330m by the end of the tranche.