Member Info for Divihunter112

If they're very cute they will look to sell some of the My Space property to reduce that risk. The Panorama programme on My Space was scary if you haven't seen it.

Typo November 2021

I've looked at the Regulator website which has 176 news items going back to 2017. My Space is the only SOHO reaffirm to have had an enforcement. Parasol has been under review since 4 November 2011 but has not been downgraded by the Regulator. Hopefully the new Parasol board and senior management team turn it around and pay the rent arrears.

I googled My Space and I've found out that Panorama covered them in a programme last August. It looks a former director of them, Paul O`Rourke, has been using My Space (charity status) as a bank to buy properties for another of his firms called Enabling Homes. At the time of the programme it was stated that he owed My Space £2.5 million. My Space came across in the programme as just concerned with getting anyone in to pay rent. There were 47 tenant deaths in t their properties in two years. This is what SOHO is dealing with.

2023 results will hopefully be better as no one off payment of £2.6m to cancel the credit facility and hopefully no large rent arrears with My Space booted out - also how much of the £2.037m 2022 rent arrears hit can they claw back in 2023.

After doing my research I've also bought some for the long haul.

This included watching the 2022 final results presentation, where Max Shenkman said they were moving properties away from My Space and trying to get the rent arrears. He said that Parasol has a new board who were better to work with - fingers crossed. He also mentioned possibility of share buybacks or selling some property to narrow the gap between the share price and NAV. Hopefully something announced with the May dividend update or raised at the AGM on 23 May.GLA

Very good point Sekforde.

Announce debt free at HY results in August? It would fly that day if that happened.

Hi I've bought SMT for the first time today and I've noticed that the gap between the share price and NAV can vary between nothing and its current gap of about 20%. Can someone please let me know why it's so large at present and will it narrow -is it do with when company results are announced? Many thanks.

Which broker is it?

Hi does anyone know what annual profit we'll get from Acorn and Viking once they are operational?

It was up 12p at best with the 18 November update. I'm holding for the FY results for a similar increase. Bought more on today's dip. Good that the news on Nigel was announced before the results.

2021 dividend was 7.35 and 14.70 so my guess is the final dividend will be double the interim dividend of 10.3 at 20.6p.

Also, no news of any new acquisitions so should be more capital for share buybacks. GLA

2022 FCF Actual looks to be at the high end of the 2022 forecast of 2.0-2.2bn - or even above it.

Oil is above the 2023 hedge of $74 so far and gas is way above the 2023 hedge of 42p.

If they complete the buyback then there will be about 835 million shares, so the existing dividend pot of $200 million equates to circa 24cents - massive increase of 9% on 2022.

The longer we remain above hedging the more debt I think they'll pay off by FY22 results. I'd love them to increase the dividend pot but not sure they will but that gives even more scope to pay off more debt.

All this should result in paying off at least half the debt by the FY2022 results. Hopefully some confirmed at the Trading update but they may hold fire till the results.

Indonesian government has today approved the HBR plan for the $3.315bn Tuna development.

There's also the general election in late 2024 to consider. Sunak and Hunt may look at some change in overall government income/expenditure as a reason to reduce/change a very unpopular tax to woo voters.

For the newbies

Oil hedging
2022 19mn barrels
2023 11mn Barrels

Gas
2022 24mn barrels
2023 22mn barrels

2022 FCF actual looks to be at the high end of 2.0-2.2bn forecast so scope to pay off even more debt than planned at FY2022. If they do this totally feasible can be debt free at HY2023 even with increased WT. GLA

Whoops 2.3bn debt at HY21

My last calculation had hedging for both O&G dropping from 42.5% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2023. Debt was 1.1bn at HY22 down from 2.1bn at HY21. At that rate should be debt free by HY23. I'd expect them to keep any treats for The results in March.

And increased dividend please. 22 cents dividend cost is only $186mn even without the rest of the advised share buyback - about $183mn if they complete it. 24 cents or higher would be great and the market would love it.