Member Info for Dip666

Thx Rotherby, good to know and same exercise needs to be applied for those looking at 10 year period at NSR and as MH says, I think their journey was different to ours and indeed every company will have their own and perhaps current ASX peers are better markers for future potential :-)

Not that I am saying previous NSR success isn't a good marker for ability of team, but not for close correlation for assessing future market cap growth if that makes sense :-)

Hi Timber, of course but in an ideal world for them, they'd have preferred I feel to have just had a clean break but being an astute and professional outfit alongside our LROR on Hav, they worked out it was best to support GGP in being able to buy both assets.

This I feel was their primary driver Vs actually wanting to retain some level of exposure via shares and given an opportunity to sell shares in accordance to partnership agreement where GGP will of course have no issues, they will in future IMO, which is why the conditions are set out as they are.

This isn't a negative, just a discussion on motivations and intentions for Newmont, their objectives and goals are vastly different to retail shareholders of GGP :-)

Senior Newmont staff were probably just as aware of the potential at Telfer as GGP staff were I imagine as no doubt plenty of old Newcrest execs at Newmont prior to their bid for Newcrest - but Telfer still didn't suit their plans - simple as that. I'm sure plenty of others well placed in the industry knew of the potential and probably true of assets globally that majors categorise as near end of life - but more simply don't suit their business models. A learning point for me for sure.

Newmont were happy to work out a deal with GGP inc. the shares to help divest both assets quickly to GGP who had the LROR with Havieron - thereby complicating any more competitive multi party bidding process for both assets. If they get the opportunity to offload their shares as per partnership agreement in place in a way GGP are also happy, I'm sure they will.

If we ever become an attractive takeover target, it might be more probable that this has come to fruition because the SP is not doing well and for some reason Wyloo not invested in protecting GGP and their own investment - so we'd probably get sold off cheaper than we might wish - so hardly an appealing and positive outcome IMO.

Realistically no one can predict with any clear accuracy the likely growth rate of a company in these stages or even more mature as a multitude of factors play into market cap growth etc.

Which is why once the Hav DFS to hand I'll be re-evaluating my position quarterly, not assuming I can predict a decade ahead.

Sure... you can look at a management team and make some loose predictions from previous achievements - but no more than that in reality so stay agile IMO, a tactic that would have served many of us LTH better to do so last few years.

Also, an important question using the Northern Star example is that if you had bought 10,000 shares a decade ago and never bought any more, would you still own 10,000 shares today or was there some level of dilution etc. to factor in before you can confirm what a hypothetical profit would have been for you.

Plenty happening this year to try and keep on top of and understand with just the two assets we have :-)

Let's see where ERW share price is in 6 months and what definable progress has actually been made with EH, explorers can still experience volatility on ASX.

@hh ditto

I don't see ERW as a particularly capable and well funded partner with resources vs say ceding 70 percent to a major putting aside the RS incestous relationship.

I feel as if we've met before Element1 ;-))

Monday lunchtime should be interesting to see if/how much of the 'deficit' our friends at VanEck have now 'balanced' correctly in GDXJ. For those angry with the 'manipulation', worth considering some (not all as we've got asset prices and telfer updates etc. to factor in perhaps) of the recent rise has possibly been due to GDXJ IF it turns out they have picked some up next week.

I'm sure we'd rather be at this SP than where we were languishing earlier in year despite the deal of a lifetime etc. Don't get caught up in day to day antics of the market and we should also remember that it's no longer just about Havieron with Telfer updates beginning to show the market that the old dame has plenty more to give.

IMO we really need to give it till the end of the year to fully absorb the Telfer updates as they come in and of course the Hav DFS when we'll have an abundance of new data to hand to come to truly understand and appreciate GGP Mark 2.

Thanks to everyone in the community from Martin with his GDXJ sleuthing and analysis to the inimitable Bamps who is helping us understand the new data coming in. We must remember to let go of the old GGP and what we thought we understood and embrace a new company - of which we still need time and data to form a full understanding of :-))

Is that why you sold out for a 'tidy profit' 30 minutes after pumping it Clive lol

An 'end of quarter' deadline is in reality very loose guidance used often to appease retail shareholders - it is not a definitive guarantee or anything that any potential partners will care one jot about.

They don't care about meeting an end of quarter deadline just because GR said so to his retail investors - saying that - the norm here is to give loose guidance and very non-specific comms about 'talks' with the current part time management team - so assumptions it will be missed are probably more likely to play out.

Multiplier, Ben is not a disruptor or bad egg but a LTH, Shaun himself discussed at a Town Hall how Newcrest were just fixated on filling Telfer mill quicky before Telfer ran dry... but in some perspectives Hav with it's own processing plant might have been viable and certainly a realistic scenario to consider as part of any investigation into potential production plans, albeit a longer road to travel as such.

I meant a smiley face btw Ben, damn bandaged finger, was a bad cut yesterday so had to go into hospital to minor injuries unit to get it patched up, the joys of house refurbishment :-)

Hi Ben, it may well be for all we know if that will provide a better return over the years but a very big shift in direction if so :-(

The DFS will be very interesting given our full ownership now and the massive amount of time since the PFS, much higher gold price but balanced slightly against inflation too... again everything has changed massively and we'll see what the optimisation studies also brought in ;-))

I'm not convinced that the initial 3mtpa will be massively improved yet given what limitations the decline seems to provide alongside other aspects but that side of things is not my wheelhouse and still learning when I get time to read up but for sure will be interesting to see what expansion might be mentioned etc. perhaps.

The crazy thing is bringing Havieron on more 'slowly' might be more profitable mid to long term with reduced or zero debt burden and a bigger stockpile and a host of other reasons. Some need to get their heads around that and think more from perspective of running the business to better understand the business plan and roadmap.

I think we see more surprises in that DFS for Hav, but just as important if not more short term will be the Telfer updates as crazy as that seems to many here.

We need to adapt and change to the new reality as it becomes clearer and if we decide we don't like it at year end we can always sell. I am open minded personally, I will wait for year end to decide what to do Vs making any commitments beyond it, way too much data still due to feed into my brain before I decide.

Forget what you thought you knew IMO, treat this year as a new start and build a new understanding and we shouldn't be fixated just on Havieron any more ;-)

Some are fixated on Havieron as if it will triple share price I feel and also not adjusting to the new second life prospects for Telfer that shocked most of us when we started reading the admission doc etc.

And how we began to realise Telfer might have more than dribs and drabs left plus advantages of Hav coming online slower financially without debt burden and more optimised with stockpiling and a longer and more productive mine life (pun intended) by developing in a more methodical manner than at a sprint given Telfer will give us revenue in short term and longer now.

Company will be valued on revenue and profits moving forward more so than a DFS and the 2nd wave for pre production on any mining project takes years to play out with largest rise near the end, you can often wait till last quarter of development roadmap to invest more safely... but we will have plenty of ore to process now.

Everything changed with the deal, we need to let this year play out to get all the Telfer and Havieron data in front of us including ASX listing benefits to understand GGP Mark 2 properly.

Havieron is an essential part of the future still but right now today and in more immediacy it is now Telfer surprisingly that is the cash cow. Once the markets begins to get more convinced we should see our fortunes turn better and better by end of year hopefully.

It's all changed, the entire investment prospects have adapted completely from what we knew l, we need to change our understanding and aspirations in line with the new landscape ;-))

I agree Mark, I go back to what I said at beginning of year- for those looking for a mid to long term position I'd suggest you let this year play out so we can understand the details with Telfer and Hav through updates and the DFS and see how the ASX listing affects the stability and growth of market cap.

Short term - it's now Telfer that matters and what growth it can provide while Havieron is more a mid term play and the 2nd wave of the Lassonde Curve for it will commence with DFS/DTM and not be an overnight rise...

We really don't have everything we need to assess GGP yet, we won't until Q4 this year - that is then the point to sit back and appraise GGP MK2 properly - still a lot of detail missing albeit we have the framework.

Christ - cut my finger badly and bandaged also today while doing some DIY so making typing even worse being on phon, I meant to say:

Bertie - often get delayed would be more accurate IMO.

i wouldn't treat any dates in the DFS as written in stone either - last time i checked it's an underground mine being developed so a very complex project.

if you mean TYmers - i don't argue with him, i take the **** out of the P&D merchant. if it bothers you... filter me, i'm sure I'll manage to carry on with my life somehow.

bertie - often get delayed would be more accurate imo.

i wouldn't treat any dates in teh dfs as written in stone either - last time i checked it's an inderground mione

if you mean tymres - i don't argue with him, i take the **** out of the p&d merchant. if it boths you... filter me, i'm sure i'll manage to carry on with my liufe somehow.

I really do suggest folk wait for the Hav DFS to make up their minds about Havieron and also try and focus a bit more on learning mroe about the oportunities form Telfer shich is where in short term growth is going to come from.

When it comes to a pre production rerate from Hav- it's the last third or quarter of the development timeframe that see's the biggest rise generally based on the stats in PPSS study by Lobo Tiggre.

Scuse typing , on phone :-)

Bertie - from what I've seen watching lots of mining projects - tielines tend to get exytended not shortended from feasabity studies - so when we see the DFS and the schedules in there, personally I'll be adding time onto the roadmap for HAvieron, probably at least 30%.

CY H2 2027 CY is also FY H1 2028 in Oz I believe so perhaps could be what he meant?

FOr those who actually bothered reading it, according to the Aim Admission doc, First Gold was loosely scheduled for H2 2027 so as Bamps and others have said ramping us to full production will take us beyond this.

***Development schedule***

The Greatland Base Case targets first Havieron ore production in H2 2026 and first gold in H2 2027. This target schedule is considered indicative, and remains subject to the timing and receipt of required permits and approvals (discussed in paragraph 2.6 below). The Greatland Feasibility Study for Havieron, which is targeted to be completed within 12 months from Acquisition Completion, will seek to refine the Greatland Base Case, incorporate optimisation opportunities to the extent these are identified and validated, and will include an executable project schedule. The project development critical path runs through permitting, establishment of two surface ventilation raises, and a parallel path of completing the underground decline development. The development rates used in the Greatland Base Case schedule are considered appropriate for typical hard rock conditions and were derived from previous study work. These will be confirmed with tender rates for the Greatland Feasibility Study for Havieron. The Greatland Base Case production rate ramp-up (from first ore to the full 2.8 Mtpa mine throughput rate) is scheduled for approximately 2.5 years and the critical enabler to achieve this will be the decline and production level advance rates:

We need to see the DFS and then that is a feasibility study - as with any complex project schedules will not conform exactly to the estimates and progress may be faster or slower at various stages. If Telfer can provide growth in the production numbers with less capex and quicker, then it is correct to be prioritised allowing Havieron to be funded with lesser or zero debt and also be developed in a more optimal manner with stockpiles etc.

The market won't care where the gold/copper ios coming from - just how much and how quickly and how the numbers add up, Some would be better served learning more about mining and also reading up on things than just price watching and arguing 24/7 - we've al; had plenty of time now :-))

Wendy Houses aren't particularly expensive compared to grown up houses Tymers ...

I thought you sold all your shares at 32p not sliced ... bit like your 88p target that has remained constant despite end of JV and the deal, nothing you say ever makes sense.