Member Info for Dip666

Hi DH, probs Thurs Dec 8th for GGP Interims for Havieron based on usual schedule.

As for other tenements , hard to say if we see anything before year end as Shaun was reluctant to commit to labs having marginally improved but think it may be feasible to expect something fingers crossed, haven't been paying much attention TBH of late :-)

@rBrand - I use DYOR to remind people they should make up their OWN mind and not base investment decisions on other people. I don't need to justify my background to you or anyone else but well suited to analysing companies and industry sectors so you believe what you want, I know what I know as does Freddo as my biggest fan lol

As for Shaun the Sheep... love the humour but listening to what the CEO/MD of a company defines as their strategy/vision is part of evaluating an investment, as you then go away and assess the potential in that strategy and also the probability, both pretty critical to deciding your investment case surely?

The team he invested in has just saved our butts from a cheap takeover and why I'll now be putting as much attention into these areas as resource size. Lesson learnt about not getting too enamoured about a discovery, doesn't change the reality that you need funding and business savvy to get through to production. Although of course having 30% of a massive and very economical ore body lends itself very well to obtaining funding - they feed each other.

A world class team and a 30% share in a world class gold/copper asset where risk and operational responsibility shared with a major in a Tier 1 jurisdiction are likely to succeed in the right circumstances IMO, with a very prospective set of tenements to potentially score another hit on. We just need to get that DFS and DTM and it's a clear run to the finish line... or rather the start line of the real journey IMO and yeah - DYOR :-))

https://youtu.be/svBUPKdxpvs

Alien Metals' (AIM:UFO, OTC:ASLRF) chief executive Bill Brodie Good updates Proactive on the Han**** iron core project in Pilbara, Western Australia, Brodie says that Han**** is the project that the company is "most excited" about, but that there are many other reasons for optimism with lots more exploration underway at Elizabeth Hill and Munni Munni.
Alien Metals recently negotiated a deal to share a facility at Utah Point in Pilbara with Australian miner Element 25 (E25), which will handle iron ore produced from Han**** ahead of shipping.

@Culpepper - I see some ill thought out posts with questionable intent and some intelligent responses... ehe DFS might not be coming for a few months so should we all (including yourself) stop posting until then :-)

Of course not, still plenty of developments such exploration results for all projects and news such as last nights to discuss and last nights announcement was very much expected. Certainly with the DFS extended to optimise and derisk Havieron with funding already in the bag with a PFS.

The announcement makes for good timing to ensure there is an understanding that Telfer will keep ticking over until Havieron goes live for both their shareholders, suppliers and importantly staff before they start flying the roost :-)

aim999 I love that you infer NCM are in no rush with Havieron, it has to be one of if not the fastest developed projects of this kind globally?
It's not as if you can't verify this looking at the expenses incurred, resources being expended to this very day on infrastructure and development that usually falls after feasibility stages not before. Look at the amount of drilling for instance to define the resource since discovery and a production ready decline and all related infrastructure required for production and to date on a PFS.
This latest announcement about the cutback has been expected a long while ago and as expected they are keeping Telfer ticking over ready for Havieron with very slim margins, all in the interviews and notes going back a few years now. This expense was being incurred even if they went for the 5%, the turning down of which to some seems to have been an opportunity to try and take advantage of current risk off and lack of funding within sector, as evidenced by peers. And yet major banks and investment houses willing to risk on a PFS with GGP.
NCM need to ensure the employment of 1200 staff and operations are ongoing until Havieron brought online and certainly if they can still continue with Telfer afterwards as if asset prices increase they can utilise other future Telfer options if available on better hedges as plenty of capacity at Telfer even if we get to 9 mtpa as per Sprott note.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02595182-3A606672?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Excerpt:
Havieron Project Update
As highlighted in the September 2022 quarterly report, the Havieron Feasibility Study has been extended
beyond the December 2022 quarter to allow further time to maximise value and de-risk the project. An update
on timing expectations for the study will be provided as value enhancing options are assessed.

@Cullpepper, I like your posts generally, you have a critical mindset and independent, surely someone like you can appreciate the other forum?
It can be viewed without a log in, has no commercial aspect and most contributors do so from our free time for the benefit of all fellow shareholders mate, not all of us here, there or other platforms are pushing narratives. Think of it as more a research hub than chat forum and best fit seems to be to post solid research there and copy links to it on chat orientated platforms such as here and TG. You can't use media here, posts get lost after a day and not categorised on anything but threads - very 20th century!
The forum doesn't have a lot of chat flow... but neither does this site or TG anymore for most stocks and things will likely stay that way- the stock market bubble is burst. Every cycle has many new or unlucky investors forced financially to exit from investing in stocks after being wiped out or through the adversity that follows such periods - times change as they have here. Bear markets also have sector bull runs and I happen to think this sector will be one and GGP will benefit :-)

Hi Bamps, I agree there wasn't a great deal of technical content, more the intent and allusion to Havieron reporting now becoming separated, moved out of exploration category and of further reporting in FY23 in some instances.
At the end of the day it's still a project in development and feasibility stages and perhaps had a published DFS been readied for release this month we'd have seen a bit more detail in various areas.
Still, some interesting signs and clues as below of intent for the future - which is what we mostly have to work with at this juncture :-)

As a few of us have noted... various instances of Havieron being treated as a separate and future operational asset, a few snippets:

Our People - Page 21:
In May 2022, we held our Graduate Summit in Melbourne, with graduates across all cohorts from Cadia, Telfer, Havieron and Lihir.....

Climate Change - Page 44:
Completed electric vehicle trade-off studies for the Cadia, Red Chris and Havieron mining studies.

Performance section from page 74…
“Havieron data is presented separately for the first time; in FY21 Havieron data was included in the Exploration data
set.”

Managing mine closure - Page 65:
Havieron conducted a review of their closure provisions.

Biodiversity management - Page 66:
Aligned with these principles, Havieron developed a draft environmental and biodiversity offset strategy for review with community representatives and regulators.

Performance - page 74:
“Havieron data is presented separately for the first time; in FY21 Havieron data was included in the Exploration data
set.”

Disclosure 2-7 Employees (#) FY22 - Page 75, 76:
(Footnotes - 23 employees, 0 contractors)
(5) Employees working at Havieron are being reported separately for the first time; many of these employees were included under Exploration or Corporate Offices in FY21.

(7) Contractors at Havieron are included in either the Exploration or Corporate Offices total, depending on which team they are working for.

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-11/221107_Newcrest%202022%20Sustainability%20Report_0.pdf

A big reason for watching Liam’s latest interview for many of us was trying to understand Shaun’s perspective on the DFS extension, so focusing on that:

What we saw from the last 12 months of results is that the SE Crescent is delivering HG at depth, HG pods in the N.Breccia, E.Breccia growing broader and higher in grade with the 'Link Zone' between the SE Crescent and E.Breccias proving to be mineralised and looking likely to figure in future mining plans. In Shaun's words 'when you start kind of filling in gaps with high grade material, I think that's very positive'. All this of course will be reflected in an updated resource estimate that will be implemented into the DFS.

*Benefits of DFS as discussed by Shaun include:
- Updating with a larger resource which is annually prepared for mid Feb 2023 by NCM for HY Results VS using 13 month old data in the DFS
- Implementing this larger resource into the mining plan to increase LOM and production
- Increasing the production profile to 3 mtpa from 2 mtpa as signposted since PFS utilising overtake lanes etc. in existing decline which is already in development
- GGP funding has been arranged with above requirements considered and the additional Capex should have the net benefit of lowering overall capital intensity of the project, 'i.e., you'll be getting more ounces and more NPV per unit of capital.'
- The above suggests that increasing the mine’s production capability delivers optimisation, thus feeding into a stronger business case for a DTM.

*Other areas:
- In the interview he also stated 'So there isn’t the additional CapEx of a whole new decline', I am unsure if this means that a secondary extraction method won't be included in this study? Perhaps leaving for a future study or he can't indicate this as a possibility as very market sensitive?
- Will we see production move forward into 2023? IMO the chances improve if the decline progress continues to deliver increased daily rates with a DFS that probably isn’t due until early 2023 now, so another potential benefit in the extension is more time to assess this.

*Lastly, NCM measures that should assist in combating inflationary effects in the DFS as detailed in last earnings call:
- Newcrest has fiscal policies around hedging and long term contracts for areas inc. fuel, manpower, infrastructure maintenance etc. which is BAU for any corporation
i) Market is forecasting some key costs such as fuel, power, shipping and steel to reduce in FY '24
ii) Supplier shifting and contract negotiations through to detailed demand management and inventory management
iii) Consolidation of contracts, volume-based discounts, rate standardisation, low-cost country sourcing
iv) Other levers like the use of digital enablers to increase efficiencies, something Newcrest has used to good effect in other projects.

Notes: https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=592

Deferring Havieron would surely create huge problems for Telfer, the existing 1200 staff and it's need for better grades to remain economically viable (more so if asset prices remain challenging in the short to mid-term) and if Telfer doesn't the extra costs in decommissioning and caretaking for his imagined period of time.

Notwithstanding then restarting everything up again and trying to find 1200 quality people in an industry where manpower is severely limited and competitive. And yet only down the road they have a mine they could begin to feed Telfer in early 2024 on current estimates that solve all of the above according to the PFS and soon to be confirmed IMO in a DFS... we've been seeing job advertisements for multi-year contracts at Havieron.

Not choosing to do so leaves the BOD in their entirety to explain the massive 'waste' of money (>$0.5bn) and resources backed up only by a PFS on a production ready vs exploration decline and all the resultant infrastructure on the project that you would usually not see without a determination to go mining.

All while still incurring ongoing costs and 'sprinting' on development if this DFS extension is being seen as damage limitation - nope - common sense dictates that the fact GGP has managed to arrange funding at PFS allows NCM to now spend more time fine-tuning the DFS to both strengthen the business case but also the planning around the project, this wouldn't have been viable otherwise. A more well thought out and cost efficient mining plan can surely only be a bonus.

I will try and compare tomorrow or Monday latest on a large screen side by side, would deffo recommend emailing investor relations to confirm based on what you're saying :-)

Pasb - so are you saying you don't expect first ore in early 2024... well could always be a delay but care to elaborate on why you think this is? We'll find out if any change to that projection early next year in the DFS and NCM are also doing the same for Cadia's FS aren't they, so a group exercise and no doubt also partly due to a new CFO who seems to now be making her mark looking at recent reports across all fiscal and operational areas under her remit.
So in your scenario they're still spending all this money and effort whilst optimising the DFS to then turn around and put the project on ice, a lot of work that wouldn't have even started without a DFS usually is still ongoing? Why not slow that down or stop it if they are so concerned. Other potential reasons are with their junior partner now provisionally funded they can spend more time to optimise to make the case for a DTM even stronger?
Or perhaps they'll continue to put through the low grade telfer ore and continue to fudge figures that even a novice can see through in their reporting, or why not put Hav on ice for 10 years, decommission and caretake Telfer with all accrued costs at a loss in your scenarios - instead of make a profit from mining Hav and start paying back the cost of exploration and development? And in that case why are they continuing will all regional activity with other partners?
You don't think NCM are taking the same steps most major corporations and businesses are doing around cost efficiencies to curtail negative pressures on project assessments and operational costs? Do you understand what those types of things might be? It's a lot easier to pick apart someone else's hard work than provide your own projections - so let's see yours, leave it till Monday though and go and play safely with some sparklers :-))

@MrECM2 - You can get the details for each resolution here to compare mate :-)

2022 AGM
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Greatland-Gold-Notice-of-meeting-20221206.pdf

2022 Funding EGM
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Greatland-Gold-Notice-with-Chairman-Letter.pdf

- The best EM target at Scallywag is currently being drilled along with Juri JV targets, somewhat reluctant to guarantee Lab assay turnarounds have improved marginally but there are good signs and expects cycle times for revisiting targets after drill programs to improve in future
- Rare for Newcrest to let a JV partner retain the lead on a 2nd phase of JV’s as they have with Juri and shows attraction of GGP to other potential partners through reputation of exploration skills and access to capital
- Great news with the funding through the WA Government at Ernest Giles and testament to team’s ability to create a report and investment case to apply for and gain funding. Still some work to be done on gaining access with First Nations but keener than ever and consider the probability and size of the prize as similar to the Paterson opportunities
- Getting the Option Exercise and funding concluded alongside increasing access to capital improves alignment with Newcrest but given the difficult stock market perhaps we still remain a little bit vulnerable to Newcrest
- ASX listing is still planned as a Compliance Listing with no plans for raising equity but at time of listing may be considered. Mainly an ASX listing will increase access to capital with some funds mandated to invest on listing or even just on a pathway defined to listing such as seen in a recent placing and offer other strategic options.

End

Some highlights from Liam's interview :

- Latest drill results cover 12 months of drilling since the last resource update as SE Crescent continues to deliver at depth, high grade pods in the northern breccia, star of the show is the eastern breccia growing broader and improved grades
- The Link Zone between the eastern breccia and SE Crescent that was initially considered barren seems to indicate a mineralised bulge joining up the high-grade portion of the eastern breccia
- Extension to DFS brings benefits of optimisation by incorporating a meaningful increase in the resource with a 50% increase to 3 mtpa production coming from a single decline by implementing overtaking lanes which should lower overall capital intensity so you increase ounces and NPV per unit of capital
- Additional costs due to inflation and increased production were planned for with the recent funding accounting for the increase in Capex and also a buffer and keen to finalise the study so can confirm but incredibly well positioned for it
- The last year has seen big derisking factors such as drill data confirming more ounces in the ground and improved progress made on the decline which remains a key focus. Expecting to hit ore during early 2023 but in a later tweet during the day also confirmed the official ETA for the separate event of First Ore is still early 2024
- The Decision To Mine should follow the DFS in short order although Shaun considers the decision in Feb 2021 to expend Capex as an informal commitment and looking forward to having a full Life Of Mine plan to endorse as a management committee
- Triple whammy of announcements with the debt, equity & high-profile board appointments that are world class encapsulated over 12 months of hard work increase the probability that GGP will be successful with Havieron, funding and opportunities to deliver growth
- The focus us as a management team was to bring the three threads together, debt equity and in augmenting the board and have each of those processes support each other and make the other two more likely to complete and avoid vulnerability with an equity shortfall raising fees of an equity raise and weakening the share price further
- The opportunity for the new board members being presented as a chance to be entrepreneurial utilising a world class asset and growth potential GGP provides and use their strategical and operation abilities from backgrounds in leadership positions at likes of BHP and Fortescue to aid GGP but also bring in opportunities using their influence and contacts
- Similarly, Wyloo as a strategical partner also bring credibility that the relationship provides GGP potential access to capital and deal flow that they will bring to the table

CONTD...

My money's on Panama - no way the drill has got a chance in a fair fight lol

@Jag or anyone in general, updates on GGP's Panorama plans in Annual report and the last Sunday Roast Podcast transcript:

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=589
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=582

Notes from GGPHelp Interview with Shaun Day Q3 2022 Update - 03 Nov 2022

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=592

To be blunt... there is NO excuse to not be well informed on GGP unless you're lazy if heavily invested here because as Z says there are a large group of people using their skills in various areas to delve into every single facet of the company. And you should NEVER heavily invest in a company unless you research it... if you don't know how there are a multitude of free resources online to read up on how.

Lack of time... then you should probably consider other investment vehicles giving you more general coverage and are managed for you for a fee or consider not investing at all. I happen to agree that in the CURRENT and near-term outlook we'll not see 25p for a while, where we are by production and macro outlook will inform my own strategy at the time and when I will set any potential SP targets as way too much volatility to accurately predict 14 months ahead IMO.

I'm not happy about that looking back in hindsight but I've moved on emotionally from the previous ATH - look forward not back is how I've always been being a naturally positive person. Also, as one who doesn't own a time machine and experienced big reversals before that have then recovered. I don't invest in any company without solid tangible value - it is what I call insurance in case as here the plan goes awry.

I didn't bother with making notes and transcripts to delve into the strategy (which is my wheelhouse of expertise) until Shaun came onboard. Gervaise raising an eyebrow or two was funny but the interviews then were pretty vapid on more than drill results . Shaun coming onboard was the signal we were going mining and now it mattered to me to look at more than drill results, resource estimates and learning about geology.

The geology wasn't going to save us from a cheap takeover - strategy has - such as building a team who could navigate the option exercise and funding hurdle and will now grow the business. Many here need to change their mindset now away from just looking at resource size, we need to understand what the potential roadmap is for the company to become a real force in the Oz mining industry, to evaluate risks and opportunities and also how to value the company as a producer and a running business.

This is a new era now, there are risks if we stay at a depressed SP so until that is over, there is a risk of a hostile party but Shaun seems to have considered options for that eventuality. If you believe Havieron is going into production and that the sector will enjoy an inflow of investment again then there are not many opportunities on AIM in a near term producer such as GGP IMO - DYOR as always but we just managed to become funded to twice the assumed CAPEX (on current estimates) backed only by a PFS and still attract 3 major banks, 3 directors that any Corporation would kill for and Tier 1 funding partners that you can get.