Member Info for Dingo1

I also suspect as FTSE 100 institutional investors left the scene, less concern about maintaining any Divi policy. RA though will be in background waiting for Geo to be sorted as he will be needing the cash to buy the next football club :-)

With the FCF being thrown off monthly and an additional 700m held over to cushion re war impact, as long as not taken off the market to raid the cash, this looks like the right decision.

Same wavelength. Hence getting back in as looking at longer term.

Fredtash. Thanks for this. That is what i thought so I have time to move across and protect the div although I suspect HMRC will need all they can get to purchase tanks, surface to air ....

FredsTash, one point on tax wrapper. If I bed & ISA it before payment date is the div receipt in or out of ISA wrapper. Just got back into investing and give strength of of divi here keen to mitigate. In long term so will move anyway. Not sure if anyone has been in scenario ?.

Black steel, I did a similar segment analysis and estimated a hit to Russian part but improved margin on outside with increasing prices and therefore a USD .90 to USD 1.10 looks in the range. Assuming no significant geo related event, this looks like a >100% annual return on my av. investment cost.

Is that at day of dividend payment. In which case i can set up for the end of March or Ex Div date. not 100% clear re ISA

This would certainly give confidence. Even if mid quarter i.e May , Aug ....having paid end of March. Abrom would also appreciate cash given fire sale of other assets

Topped up at just under 85p. Hoping now dvi does get paid to reduce some risk and big boys pile in so price recovers X div. This was a great divi share before given fundamentals and assuming it settles certainly looks like an Amerisur 10 bagger but with less specualtive business model.

Thanks. It looks to me all on the Geo risk here. FCF strong, fundamentals strong and even on stand alone without Russia still looks like a £15.0 to £2 + per share. Risk of being taken off market but unless forced to do so why would Putin want to cut off Western market (although major shareholders are Russian), ultimately it is UK listed & regulated.

Do we think there will be any chance of picking up a few thousand shares X-div at the bottom on opening ?. Longer term hold so keen to add at the bottom. Or is the view that if goes X div it is likely to be paid (even if technically not bound as per final) and this will add confidence and see strong price recovery ? Would welcome thoughts

Risk is end up with an X FTSE 100 which has only Russian Board. Not good for governance of FTSE 350 co. The less diversified management the higher the political risk of not being seen as Russian company ....

This current ride is not based on any fundamentals of the business, any charting but pure speculation. Bought in at 80 p & 60 p so let it ride. I plan to hold until double my money with Divi on top

Maverick
Thanks for repeating. FCF is 2x market cap give or take. Therefore even if 50% is Russian market / inter-co generated, 1 yr cash = market value. Have you looked at how much cash Russia throws off ?.
Answer - Buy the Co. for 1 year CF. I am in @80p and may double to average down.

It is a top 30 worldwide steel producer and plenty of potential suitors. Consolidate markets outside Russia, cash balances and even with the problem child of Russia

Only concern is the reference to a fund raise in 2023 /24. This could be a challenge unless funded from FCF. This could be the divi ?

If so then what is your intuition telling you as models of limited value here. Great to watch as long as you can afford to take a hit.

I always remember the strap line if you cant afford to lose it don't use it - on this one.

Got in at just < 80p. Assuming div paid out end of March and future dividend at 50% of this FY, I will recover investment cost within 24 to 30 months and shares for free :-)

I have not been an active investor for a while, but while a short term risk the fundamentals even without Russia are so strong it has peaked my interest and back in the market. At some point the Geo piece has to settle and suspect reconstruction will increase demand. Biggest risk I see is it gets bought out for a song. Probably too hot to handle for PE