Member Info for Dingo1

I think he was probably put under pressure as he saw the Emperors new clothes. New hire will clear books and hope to either support better result for II or help secure better sale price / process. Either way CEO and other directors must be toast.

The accounting in Enron was expenses on balance sheet and scale. Suspect here in project revenue recognition ? Also a less material dividion. I suspect most recent CFO resigned as had been in less than a year and in reality saw the issue. They are now cleaning house. As I mentioned before key factor is around £6bn pipeline and expected margins. If solid then strong future. CEO toast whichever way you look at it Sin,PE or reboot

Agreed

The key factor remaining here for Sid is financing / refinancing. Not the £1bn incl. leases which are long term but c £700m. If it looks like Rothschilds making progress based on comfort of future cash flows then Sid will also have similar option and need to move to get strat benefit. If financing issue then different scenario.

If Sid bid i wonder what management W&I looks like :-)

I expect before Sid extension the Interim CFO with Rothschilds to announce via RNS update on refi. This will be supported by keen II to secure improved offer. Interim CFO will want to maintain his reputation. Also happy to draw line from historical issues to give clear runway if turn around scenario.

Can anyone confirm what the estimates of pension surplus was please ?. Combined with identified divisional sale what % is this of debt excluding leases ?. Surely both possible well within 18 months to significantly reduce raise ?.

Management gone, but if refi arranged in 18 months (plenty of time) from lenders comfortable on future cash flow then II will support otherwise their write off. Remember 80% + ? II. Sell out to PE if not Sid

If Sid dont follow through, why would PE not jump in at these values. This could be a huge value generation opportunity and plenty of options to restructure debt. If wait value on contracts and people destroyed.

I think if any CFO it was the one before the last as prior to recent interim, that CFO had short tenure. Any write offs or adjustments i suspect related prior.

Possible option, but major risk unlike Bohoo that your engineering people knowledge walks. With it huge expertise pool of qualified staff, networks...Very different sector.

If not aquired by Sid, this has take private PE play all over it. 1) Strong future revenues and loyal customer base 2) Improve Management and focus 3) Divest non core business units to pay down debt 4) Strip out costs associated with being public and any others 5) Obvious future buyers. 6) Current poor valuation relative to potential and under rated by market. 7) Mostly II so small major shareholder groups

Any DD is not on current share price. The review will be based on forward projections of ebitda, current performance plus any adjstments to balance sheet...+ upside to buyer on consol etc. The only reference to current share price will be attempt to negotiate doen, but i am sure II will not accept such an adjustment.

If refi at 3 to 3.5 x Ebitda why would SP be signficantly less. Therefore indicating 95p to 1.10p range. Forward earnings view would aligh beyond 2025 / noise / historic adjsustments ... There should be a significant % of Ebitda underwritten by £6bn of contracted revenue.

Not sure if II would sign off at this level of 70p. Why not push for change of Board and 2 year time frame would see stronger result. Also with changes of CEO plus refi (only needed by Oct 26) from experienced interim CFO would immediately see rerating and FTSE 250 return IMHO.

I am sure in LOE Deloitte would have a massive disclaimer for 3rd party reliance on findings. Therefore unless major insight with massive adjustments impacting future cash flows / performance I cannot see how this is so critical, apart from share price sentiment.

I like your logic. IMOHO of providers of debt work for long term contracting business are going to typically work off a min of 3.5 x Ebitda on any refi they why would a strategic buyer not work from this.

May also be change of control confirmation on £6bn of customer supply contracts ?.

Like others with experience, from completing 12 M&A of varying scales both Buy and Sell side there are many points in play.1) Financing - Needs to be locked down and impacted by many assumptions 2) Given their contracted revenue / projects including more recent wins buyer wants comfort

around pricing / margins and also any change of control clause 3) Valuation - If refinancing and turnaround with new board better prospect than offer in 2 to 3 years why would II take low ball. Changing CEO/ Old Board will probably improve share price alone for WG. Currently a sxxt sxxx. Does not mean fundamentals are not strong. 4) It is ultimately a strategic asset for the right buyer or a turnaround option e.g for PE. Either way current valuation hugely undervalues therefore if strategic buyer backs out ( imho I dont think they will unless new contracts / pipeline at really poor margin) then it is surely a PE play.

So that looks like C $800m profit FY22 v Market Cap $1.4bn. When the madness stops and eventually if this comes out the other end it will be a nice retirement present. Thinking 3 to 7 like a PE fund :-)