Member Info for difranco

A week tomorrow and we’ll be in Local Election mode. A Labour drubbing, or worse, a Green Party success, TW will be heading down to 50 or worse.

A small nibble at 61 then 59. Did the same with Vistry a few months back then it dropped another 30% on top of the initial drop.

US March CPI print due out early afternoon. That will dictate the direction of the US markets from 1430hrs and ours in due course. A high figure with consensus of a rate rise asap and the markets will drop. 6 weeks in and diesel is at 196p in my area. This isn’t going to be a quick fix as inflation for March, April and May will be on the climb around the world. IMHO, this is bigger than liberation day as can’t easily be reversed, however, Trumps WhatsApp group leaks have massaged the markets several times so far. You can’t massage CPI/RPI around the world so easily.

markets both sides of the atlantic will most likely sell off into the weekend. either way, on sunday or mondaytrump will say the talks in ****stan have gone very well. now where have we heard that one before ?

only one direction at the moment. be surprised a trump tweet will save the markets like last monday.

the full gravity of the pending **** show is definitely not priced in.

this will be the pivotal short trading week ahead of easter. with no positive news, there could be a major sell off ahead of the 4 day trading break.

It’s all getting beyond a joke. One social media post by Trump and WTI goes from $117 to $87. He will be doing a press conference later and will no doubt elaborate on the comments the war is near its end. One missile strike on a tanker in the coming days will see another spike. His comments and actions are more wishful thinking. If he thinks all of Iran will lay down arms and capitulate, he is deluded.

I don’t think the gravity of the situation has set in yet. Friday this week will be a pivot point for crude, although, emergency G7 meeting scrambled today to try and calm the markets. Good luck with that one.

I don’t think the gravity of the situation has set in yet. Friday this week will be a pivot point for crude, although, emergency G7 meeting scrambled today to try and calm the markets. Good luck with that one.

If you want to rant, go to another forum or message your MP. This board is descending into an AIM quality chat room.

Heard on CNBC this morning that most US carriers do not hedge their fuel. Fine for domestic operators but not for international on return flights.

Could happen this afternoon depending on how the US market reacts to the continued increase in crude prices since their close yesterday.

As of 1130hrs WTI Crude - $84.81 +3.80 +4.69% Brent Crude $88.15 +2.74 +3.21%.

If insurance and naval escort through the Strait of Hormuz are delayed further, crude futures will breach the $100.00 level over the weekend.

There again, even if you're insured, can you really afford to lose your vessel. Probably a 5 year lead in to building a replacement and some of these operators can cover their existing build within 2 years. Its a complex situation that was never going to be settled in a weekend whilst partying in Mar Lago.

Let Ukraine be a lesson on that one.

300 will tested next week if no significant negotiation is made this weekend. Just my personal thoughts.

Having cruised in that area many times, I can confirm most of the cruise ships operating in the Gulf are permanently stationed there serving the expats. All the six star cruise lines haven’t been there for over two years as need to avoid attacks when positioning to and from the med and tend to go the long way round travelling from India to the med via the Cape.

Fuel isn’t an issue as distances covered can be minimised by cutting out unnecessary ping ponging between ports. More overnighters will help.

Realism and negative are two very different traits.

Out with a small profit at 401. Wasn't expecting a small bounce back up to the 4's. There is no way this will stay here unless there is an end to this war today. That isn't going to happen and most likely this will continue until the end of the week or later. No airline in their right mind will fly even if there is a cease fire as one drone strike and its curtains for the company. This has ash cloud DNA all over it and that was mega costly. A steady drop to 300 is most likely based on previous hostilities in the area. Only my opinion, however, those who are whoop whooping that the worst is over are either inexperienced with share trading or downright deluded.

Back on point, come Monday and beyond this is going sub 400 and could test 300 by weeks end. As the only significantly profitable long haul airline in Europe, this is still the only logical airline trade. Iranian missiles heading for Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE as I type. Aviation in the whole Middle East will be grounded for days.

AML now a basket case in terms of shareholder value. Lawrence Stroll has his get out of jail card. Major bond holder and a casino number valuation of the F1 team, circa £3Billion. Obviously other financial partners along side, but never the less, F1 team valuation will save him. For us, bankruptcy.

He had his chance to take the entire entity but held off and is now paying the price. Oh dear, so are we.

£15.02 post results

8% increase for the week. Nothing seems to stop the momentum.

Based on an approx. 10-1 split £18.50 would equate to the IPO price. Possible with entry to FTSE100, however, far too many geo political traps effecting tourism and insurance to make it a reality. £10.00 is more realistic by early 2027.