Member Info for difranco

How can garden centres be classified as essential retail. Obviously they have a powerful lobby group or is it Boris’s best friend Dido Harding needs them to stay open so she can get the best pick of the Christmas trees.
Joking aside, they sell a phenomenal amount of cards. Nothing is growing in the garden so I cannot see the necessity. If they site mental health, that can be applied to all forms of retail browsing. Hopefully they can only open the open air areas so we have a fighting chance come December. Let’s hope the senior management have an advertising campaign for our online presence this month.

Well worth a punt sub 30 but if you are tempted spread your investment over 4 or 5 other stocks. Cannot believe how many investors put their full pot into one company on the advice of a handful of posters on random chat rooms. Do what you think is correct and always hold some funds in reserve for RI’s and massive dips. Never thought March lows would appear again with worse to come if a botched US election transpires.

Went past my local Card Factory store yesterday morning. I can confirm it was as busy as this time last year.
WHSmith was empty with the exception of the Post Office area.
The shopper limit is actually very high and I would be surprised if it's ever met. Mask wearing has been a dramatic positive as shoppers are happier to go from 2m to 1m+.
Share price is down to unrealistic levels compared to some companies who are still closed or resulting to rights issues.
Covid-19 tier 3 threats and pending US election result delays may drag the share price lower to 25-30 range, however, that could be a good opportunity to add.

20.83 at 12.02hrs

If you need a negative covid-19 test within 72 hours for entry to a certain country, it would be prudent to do it before leaving for the airport. Imagine dragging a family of 5 to the airport, parking the car and then finding one of you test positive at the airport. At home you would have potentially up to 72 hours to make alternative arrangements. Cannot understand why companies like SAGA or IAG can't include a fast test in Boots or similar along with insurance cover if the test is negative. At the airport is too late to find out and salvage the trip. Plenty of small labs seem to be popping up but the big players are waiting to be served rather than creating their own labs at a fraction of the cost. The fast test is quite similar to the antibody test slide used by Imperial College London.

Today’s low was 33% down from the offer price. Didn’t think sub £ was likely but now looking a distinct possibility before underwriters offload their full surplus.

Still only 15p in old money, so not too far from the realms of reality.

We are now in a worse situation covid-19 wise since April 2020. Negatives are SAGA is one of hundreds of companies in serious trouble laden with debt, infection cases are at all time highs in Europe at exactly the same time, death rate is increasing, USA second wave is about to commence and US election result will be contested by Trump leading to a 4-6 week delay in final declaration. The positives are, RI completed albeit a disaster, offer of 33p may resurface, DH is onboard in a big way, vaccine trials are much further forward, SAGA has 2 new shinny ships that can be sold/leased to a pure operator who has only rusty 30 year old fleets. In conclusion, January 2021 will most likely be the pivotal month. Kill or cure, as simple as that.

The infamous offer of 33p would now be 495, albeit with RI funds in place. But we are where we are and they would have probably walked before conclusion. Very challenging times ahead.

The RI at 12p to 9p and 6p now on the horizon. 180 to 135 and 90 in new money. In old money it looked unlikely to hit 6p but in new money 90p looks quite likely.

Not sure the theory of a higher share price will prevent the share price dropping.
Now down into the 9’s in old money.

The news today, albeit not yet confirmed by an RNS, is a pattern emerging with dozens of quality plc’s. Covid was supposed to have disappeared by now, or that was the story spun by our leaders at the outset. Alas, countries around the globe are seeing record levels of infections putting the brakes on any deluded idea of a quick recovery.
From RR, IAG, SAGA, LLOY to CINE, to name but a few, the alarm bells are ringing. No point in going cap in hand to Rishi or Boris because too many are in this predicament at the same time.
IMHO if all holders resisted the panic and held onto their holdings the drop would be less dramatic come Monday morning.
On a side note regarding rights issues, the lesson to be learnt is those Plc’s who instigated RI’s at the start of the pandemic have fared considerably better than those who are in the process since September. Rights for CINE now will end up like IAG, RR or SAGA.
For some investors if you haven’t got the funds on the sidelines for rights you need to bail with a loss and regroup. It is not inconceivable for a large portfolio to need £100,000 in cash to avoid dilution in multiple rights issues.

Very few cruise companies have a second string to their bow. Saga have an insurance portfolio to ride out the storm and a small liability of 2 cruise ships. The larger operators have cruise or leisure mixed port and nothing else. There will be casualties in the cruise sector but unlikely to be Saga. Capacity will evaporate with cruise line failures and Saga may be able to pick up the slack.
A quick profit on this share is unrealistic, however, in 18 months time those who sold their rights will rue the day. A bargain for de haan is a bargain for us.

The problem with buying any company shares during this pandemic is that you must have sufficient cash reserves for rights issues or you will be diluted towards massive losses.
This is exactly what happened in 2009 onwards and can happen more than once in a year. Those with experience of share dealing over the years will be more than aware, those who have only just joined the so called party maybe in for a rude awakening. By all means invest but keep sufficient cash reserves as the cap in hand brigade are out in force.

With the phenomenal rate of cash burn, some has to be going towards voluntary and involuntary redundancy. The question is, why are they paying out over and above statutory minimum. This rights issue should be to keep the airline alive, not paying out a penny over and above what they can get away with. Even the current negotiations with unions for changes in terms and conditions should be scrapped. As each month passes they need to be totally mercenary. I understand the emotions are high with past and current employees, however, we are now at an impasse where sentimentality alone will not help keep this airline flying. With no airline the pension fund will go into default.

Do we have clarity on what the 2200hrs time limit relates to.
Is it last orders, the bell or end of drinking up time.
If there isn't clarity which is likely in Boris world, then you will see multiple drinks purchased before the bell
and drinkers taking 1 hour plus to consume with the blessing of the landlord.
If its table service only you may as well forget the 2200hrs curfew.
The smart publicans will sell hard to 2130hrs then prep takeaway's for drinkers to continue the party at home.
Either way, it shouldn't be confusing but with a dissolved mainland and no borders, they will not sing from the same hymn sheet as we've seen over the last 6 months.
IMHO this company does have a good future as some business is better than no business at all. If it was an aviation company the share price would be down to 5p.

IMHO I think IAG have 3 months to firefight before the next big revenue stream arrives, namely, Christmas migration.
However, who will actually want to fly to destinations requiring negative Covid tests and compulsory quarantine on arrival. Maybe 30% of last years passengers.
Without a vaccine this year IAG and the worlds airlines may have to gravitate to the late 1970’s business model. Air travel for 10% of the developed world only. This will create a new scheduled system where 90% of existing airlines will fall back into the charter model. In 1979 a return economy flight to Helsinki was approx. £350, £1500 in today’s money.
Another option is to break up IAG and spin off BA with the view to merging it with Qatar Airways.
Doing nothing and burning cash with Bob Hope at the helm is not an option.

No mention of the hidden pension debt liabilities of one of the closed final salary pension schemes going forward. BA NAPS (British Airways New Airways Pension Scheme) has ongoing pension liabilities until they are cleared. The scheme currently has insufficient assets to cover the liabilities. This is reviewed every 3 years.
2015 the funding level was approx. 82.7% ( £2.78 Billion deficit), 2018 the funding level was approx. 87.6% (£2.39 Billion deficit)
Since the last pension review in 2018 BA has made additional one-off payments of £250 million in December 2019 and monthly contributions of £25 million. This was increased to £37.5 million since April 2020.
The deficit was expected to clear by 2025/2026. However, with the existing financial climate uncertainty and the damage to investment returns in all asset classes, the pension review in 2021 will most likely reveal an increased deficit and a much longer time frame to pay this off.
This is only BA, what about Iberia, Iberia Express, Vueling, Air Lingus, Level etc.

If rights are sold on or ignored will the Qataris mop up significantly more than their circa 25% holding ?
Will IAG be moved back to the UK and the Qataris allowed to become majority shareholders.
The UK government will not want to bail out any companies like the banks in 2008/2009.
Rights issues in this environment are a disaster. A similar situation is playing out with SAGA. Rights issue and consolidation at the same time, plus a falling share price. They have De Haan circling like a vulture. Will the Qataris be doing the same ?

Nice to see Goldman continuing to add to their holding. Up from 7.29% to 7.46%. If they continue onto the 10%-15% range, this could be interesting. Hopefully positively interesting.