Member Info for difranco

Somebody had to be first, why not me. Today CHSS have floated and the outlook is promising. Time will tell how the share price performs but this sector is in a growth phase.
Will be interesting to see if holders are chess players or investors or both.
Play nice poeple !

Apologies £80K holding

I’m amazed how you could have built up an £80K holding without having a clue what has been going on with this company since 2020. By all means ask for explanations regarding RI permutations and options, however, any decision on what to do and how to or not to invest lays in your corner. Some advice going forward, research, research, research, then make a balanced decision with a maximum 5% of your portfolio invested in any one company and 10% held in cash for RI’s etc.

This RI as with any RI, demonstrates a need to have at least 10% in cash for these events. So many pension and fund managers see it as dead money with at famous quote of “you must make your money work for you”. All very well until RI season arrives like 2020. Having no cash and having to sell part of your portfolio to finance it is counter productive. I try to keep a minimum of 10% in cash but my pension manager keeps only 1.5%. I think this RI will be well short of anticipated take up given the current financial climate and being timed for April which sees the largest squeeze on personal finances on record in the UK with everything from mobiles, council tax, utilities, SKY etc going up from 5-17%. Germany may fare better as a lot of their increases took place on 1st Jan.

Another example of a take over bid praising the high premium on offer. Delve deeper and the offer is far from a premium. This share was 750 this time last year and a fair price now would be in the region of 650-700. The board have no doubt been offered sweetners to put this 3rd bid forward. Phoenix aren’t the only large holders so there may be some pushback which may result in a more reasonable +600 offer. Also, if other cash laden SPACS see the door is half open there may be a competing bid.

In old money this touched 6.86p this morning. Frightening figures similar to Aston Martin’s current price. Looks good for new entrants but scratch the surface and a litany of consolidation and RI. Good time top up but maybe smaller amounts every 20p drop.

Royal Caribbean Group purchased the final holding of Silversea from Manfredi Lefebvre d’Ovidio in 2019 just before covid lockdown. Carnival are looking to offload Seabourn. Neither are in the market to make an acquisition.
However, Manfredi Lefebvre d’Ovidio is looking at the carcase of Crystal and may even be a prospective candidate to make a punt for SAGA's ships. After all, SAGA has a very young fleet.
Its all about timing. 5 months later and Manfredi Lefebvre d’Ovidio would have been picking olives for a living rather than sitting on a massive cash pile in a Swiss Bank twiddling his thumbs.

CDC yesterday announced covid protocol is now resting with cruise lines not the US Government. This resulted in a spike in cruise shares stateside. I have a European cruise booked in Europe with Azamara (November) and received an email from them yesterday stating as of 25 July 2022, pierside pre-cruise testing will no longer be a requirement. They advise testing before travel but this is advice only. The only requirement is a full programme of vaccination including booster.
IMHO the only obstacle going forward may be the definition of booster. Some countries now require less than 9 months from last booster to return date. My booster (3rd Vaccination) was in December 2021 and I will require another by at least September. The UK under 75 roll out may not be until the autumn which may be too late for some travellers.
This may help with future bookings but vaccination and the autumn/winter season may be problematic as may some countries own entry requirements. The cruise outlook is looking better today than this time yesterday.

Typo

This is a similar play to the Fevertree trading statement last week. That dropped by a substantial amount and had a retracement the following days, albeit, still well down for the week.
Hopefully HOTC will be back up to 170/180 on Friday's close.

A 25 year career in aviation gives me a good insight into the transition to private jets.
The main problem with the sector worldwide was not putting legacy staff onto furlough but to lay them off with redundancies at statutory minimum or using early retirement for those old enough.
The cheaper staff have now found jobs not requiring 0300-0500hr starts and weekend working. Some are now on higher wages. They wont go back and the legacy staff will never be offered enough.
This all started in the mid nineties with mixed contracts from the ground to aircrew. The unions let it happen as long as the legacy contracts were protected. Covid was the golden goose that kept on giving to aviation management.
There is one solution which even TUI can adopt, go back to the seventies aviation model of lower capacity and considerably higher fares. The masses need to adapt to one trip a year not 5 or 6. Then they can make very good money, especially with more efficient aircraft.

Is this another TCG moment ?
Share price pattern seems to be following that trend. I remember one of their last dividends was a fraction under the share price when paid. Seems to be an underlying force trying to reduce aviation to a shadow of its former self. Doesn't help when richer members of society use fractional ownership business jets from smaller airports. They couldn't care less if commercial capacity is cut to the bone and fares are jacked up.
The Russian - Ukrainian weekend war that has turned into a political band wagon is now entering its 5th calendar month with no sign of abating. Every wildly optimistic limit buy I have place on other stocks has been hit and we're still dropping.
Sentiment is changing with the realisation we are entering WW3 without the ground battles. This time played out in the political and financial fields. IMHO I have no idea how the next 6 months will play out but one thing for sure, keep some spare cash for rights issues or you will be diluted.

Why do the media think Ukrainian’s will roll over without a fight. If it was the UK most of us would take arms and fight to the end or result to gorilla warfare. Therefore, this conflict will most likely be lengthy and the impact on this share could be volatile. However, there are many capitalist communists in Russia who will not want to relinquish their western lifestyles. Hence, Putin’s days maybe numbered and this share will recover. Let’s hope it’s the latter.

Is Morocco the domino effect on further countries banned from the sunnier countries. Germany and Netherlands were also chopped as well as the UK.
Share price under extreme pressure with sub £2.00 a likely resting place for the weekend.

Any holders on ii platform received an invitation email yet, or will it be early next week ?

Uber Eats and Just Eat define the delivery they are associated to. Deliveroo can associate to anything. Today takeaways, tomorrow screwfix materials, even using a bike for small items. It is after all a platform with a myriad of opportunities. Look to get in sub100 and the future may pay off handsomely. After all the British public are becoming lazier than ever requiring the simplest of items to be delivered.

Can’t see pubs opening until Q3 if the breaking news of the Kent covid-19 strain starting to mutate beyond the capabilities of current vaccines is backed up by senior scientists later today.
Maybe 105 is the real deal.
Plenty of news to play out during this week with this latest press release and the South African variant starting to show its hand in the UK. Will be interesting to see how Sturgeon handles her press conference this afternoon as she was due to announce if Scotland’s lockdown is to be extended into March.

We all seem to be running away with ourselves with the no vaccine no cruise statement. In November 2020 the vaccine was promoted as the golden ticket. In the last few weeks there is a realisation the vaccine isn't a cure but will help you fight off the worst effects of the virus. In fact, you can still transmit or contract covid-19 once you have received the two doses. This information is slowly being dripped into the media as the lockdown is most likely to go on and on. Unfortunately a large proportion of those already vaccinated are not aware of the limitations going forward. We will most likely still need negative tests when travelling and quarantine on return from travel. We are rolling out the vaccine at warp speed but the countries we are wanting to travel to are well behind the curve. They will not be wanting the UK mutation coming in until their nationals are vaccinated.
IMHO the industry will most likely resume in September 2021. Just my personal stance. We are lucky SAGA have other irons in the fire.

If TUI board have their head screwed on the right way they will revert to the 1970/80's holiday model. Reduce capacity and increase prices. During those decades holidays were the domain of the middle/upper wealth sectors. It worked and the profits were considerable. From the 90's every Tom, Dick and Harriet joined the party with multiple cheap trips each year.
Keep the fares high and squeeze the profit out of a minority, that's how business works.
This is how the aviation industry will slowly get back to profit, low capacity, fewer aircraft, quieter destinations. The green's will love it and the shareholders will profit from it.
With inflation built in a return flight to Rome in 1970 cost £1600,00 not £300.00 charged today.

Great news released today. Moonpig confirms listing plans reportedly targeting a valuation above £1bn ($1.4bn) for the London listing. With Card Factory gradually increasing their online presence, this can only be positive for the sector.
The main area they need to concentrate on is aggressive marketing, however, they need a robust website before inviting a heavy flow of traffic.
Will be interesting to see if Card's share price is dragged up in the coming months.
After all, Moonpig can only lose market share and Card can only gain.