Member Info for dickupham

Chapter 2

Seismic data is gathered by passing sound waves through rock and other formations thousands of feet below the seabed. It has been used extensively to good effect in the oil & gas industry for decades and technical advances have resulted in it being far more accurate today than it has ever been. But it is still far from perfect at pinpointing exactly where oil is present and there will always be anomalies.

It might not be the right analogy but ultrasound is also used extensively in medicine (usually in diagnosis). I have a good deal of experience in the subject which is why I raise it. Ultrasound gives a good indication of what might be going on an inch or so below a patient’s skin, but more precise diagnosis is usually provided by a follow-up CT or MRI scan and sometimes an endoscopy, so that what is there can actually be seen. The point is that if ultrasound can’t be relied on to show accurately what’s an inch or so below someone’s skin, how can it be relied on it to map out precise sand and rock formations and whether they contain oil,12.000 ft below the seabed? Other information – presumably much gained through experience - is generally factored in and the precise interpretation of all the data must play a big part. It is a hugely complex subject made to sound like a walk in the park by some posters on here who, to me, are being grossly unfair.

What now seems clear is that JOG’s directors should have put more caveats in place to lower shareholders’ expectations about the appraisal drill, but I doubt their – or more importantly Equinor’s - technical evaluations in advance were deficient. I regarded the drill as a penalty kick, which was a mistake. I therefore wouldn’t disagree with anyone who felt let down by the degree of confidence exhibited by JOG in advance of the drill.

So, taking the emotion out of it, what has changed apart from the share price (which suggests JOG is now worth nothing except its cash – which is ignoring the facts). The share price is of course driven by the “don’t knows”, multiplied by Schroders and divided by the Welsh ex sheep farmer of questionable moral integrity, certainly when he was with Evolution Group. He’s the last thing JOG needs imv, if he intends to be ‘active’. He won’t get far if he starts trying to push his weight around like Guillenhammar did in TRAP.

I have added to my JOG holding, The crucial news went above the empty heads of the NKOTB without them even noticing – Equinor remains fully committed to Licence P2170. Without that news JOG would have been seriously challenged. As it is, things are in an orderly state and normal business can continue, even if there is ground to make up.

tbc

Chapter 1

There has been nonsense of Olympic proportions spouted on here of late by the NKOTB (and some of the old ones too). Most seem to have been missing when the brain cells were handed out (GB, you’ve got company at last - didn’t think there was another like you in the civilised world; turns out there are quite a few). All of a sudden there’s been a deluge of utter c**p posted and it’s got out of control. Having had a break, I feel I should post something sensible for balanced consideration by the more lucid out there. For the record, I’ll be surprised if the illiterates respond with anything except insults. These will be welcome, because I'd be worried if the relevant people agreed with me on anything at all.

Unquantifiable “blame” is being laid on JOG’s directors – the level of vitriol is alarming: “the BoD needs a good shake up: make them work for nothing; compulsorily sell their shares and put the money into the company”. What utter tripe. What is it that you lot do for a living that you’ve got to the age you have, don’t understand the first thing about anything, yet mouth off at about 200 decibels what is completely and utterly wrong?

JOG owns 18% of Licence P2170 (that’s the licence the Verbier field is part of in case you don’t know). Equinor is the operator and the way the partnership (Eq 70%; CIECO 12%; JOG 18%) works is that a simple majority decides what should happen and when. Don’t know why, but I reckon Equinor calls the shots and it’s unlikely, on a technical issue at least, the 2 junior partners would seriously challenge Equinor's decision on where, for instance, an appraisal well should be drilled. Equinor owns 70% and paid the full cost of the first drill ffs, subject to the modest sidetrack costs being shared 70:18:12.

Why “blame” JOG’s team for the appraisal well failing to find more oil? Why blame anyone? The well was drilled where the partnership thought it best to drill it. We don’t know the facts and even if we did we aren't petroleum geologists (or whatever the term is). I note no-one has suggested Equinor’s directors should be fined or sacked. It’s oil and **** sometimes happens. No-one was expecting it, but it did. Oil exploration and development is a notoriously risky business to invest in. The rewards can be high but it is pathetic to hit out irrationally at people who don’t deserve it because you won’t be getting rich after all. The best way to become a millionaire is to start as a billionaire and invest in oil & gas explorers.

tbc

............until it's decided a well will be drilled.

If a well is (or wells are) to be drilled, which will depend on Shell deciding in conjunction with CLNR that the technicals support this course of action, the first well to be drilled would be in the area covered by Licence P2437. When I was in contact with the Company recently, the well I refer to (in P2437) was described by the individual I was speaking with as an appraisal well. Indications on CLNR's website are that such a well would be drilled within 12 months as I read the data.

Funds to cover CLNR's share of the well costs should easily be obtained by farming down a small percentage of the 50% of P2437 it is envisaged CLNR will retain, should Shell decide to take up the option granted by CLNR. This is due to be decided before the end of this month although there is always the possibility of a short delay should Shell ask for more time to evaluate all the data. CLNR would receive the balance of the total option fee of $600k as a contribution towards its costs of P2437 incurred to date.

It isn't necessary to look beyond P2437 at this stage. If Shell decides to take up the option it is the real deal. P2252 will follow later. There is a saying: "let tomorrow take care of itself" and imo this applies here in spades.

There are always risks in oil & gas exploration. It is the risk/reward ratios that attract investors in the sector. CLNR's is badly skewed at present, which is in favour of those sensible enough to see through the cr*p spouted by the nay-sayers who seem to be on a mission. I am not totally certain who is sponsoring this mission but it gets likelier by the day (as the same patterns continue to emerge) that they will in the end be identified.

In the meantime their antics provide those who accept the identified risks (there are no others) with an unusual opportunity to invest at well below par value then sit back and wait for the multiple rewards on offer in the slightly longer term

GLAL

jmo/dyor

final final comment to graybird:

re: "really mr dick up ham"

,,,,,,,if I was as thick and illiterate as you are, I'd hide in a corner and hope no-one spotted me, not confirm time after time the facts. If you do have a rich father and he gained his wealth honestly and fairly, he would be ashamed of what he's produced in you.

A glorified: 'bouncer cum investment specialist' -on your own admission you use your fists first, "Bizarre" isn't the word to describe you.

Happily I'll never have to mix with the likes of you again in my life........I pity others in this regard

Bet you don't get much beyond JOG's front door the next time you're pig-ignorant enough to walk through it without an appointment..............

You didn't even give me the chance to finish - perhaps it's you who should take a pill.

Your statement: "End of the day you were sitting on a 10 fold profit and didn’t take it" is utter bo**ocks. I explained why in the post you didn't bother waiting to read. Typing fast is not one of my skills and is made more difficult by trying to present information in an understandable form.............some others might try a bit harder in this regard.

I feel a bit sorry for your wife missing out on a new Range Rover, poor thing.

adieu all. I don't need you and you won't miss me. Getting the blame from so many for a failed appraisal drill was too much even from me. I hand the "reigns" over to workover, the odious wolfson and graybird - you can't go wrong listening to these experts............

GL all genuine holders

Roger and out (who is this Roger btw?)

You would do well to consider a bit more carefully to whom you should pay heed and to apply a bit more logic before you decide to write nonsense on this board. If you want some facts why not ask me directly - unless the information is personal I'm always happy to provide an opinion. I could opine that we have workover, for instance, who suddenly turns up saying he's investing in a company in which he says management heads must roll and he's going to ask some very silly questions at the AGM to bring them to account - eg why is the company worth 45x more today than when you took the helm - is this not disgusting? I see he turned for help last night to that recognised industry expert graybird: I quote:

"Do you not think they’ll go down the farm in route ? With some of their other licences?

How much moolah do you think they’ll need ?

Can they get some loans to mix debt and equity? Probably not a good idea knowing the company’s history ....

I can’t see them raising shares sub £1... that’ll wipe us all out ! Even £10 million dilutes us by 50%!!!

Lots of things to ponder ! Appreciate your feedback ... you seem to know your stuff ..."..........

I thought I was dreaming when I read it.

I chose not to respond to GB telling me what I should and shouldn't do with my investments, based on where we are likely to sit respectively in the playing field of life. I can tell you, however, that I did indeed reduce my investment cost in JOG to below zero in the frenzy of discovery in 2017 that sent the share price to close to £4 (when there were about 10m shares in issue). I didn't sell many. What I invested elsewhere using the proceeds has also done well (I boight quite a lot of Serica Energy at an average of about 22p - I've also sold some of those so that they too owe me nothing.

Is the above all ok with you, Chaebol? Or should I have sold the shares I bought at 8p (for instance) when they reached 16p, 24p, 36p - give me a figure please. And the ones I bought in the placing at the outset at 22p? And all the others at prices between 10p and 35p? And in the placing at 100p. And the placing and offer at £2? What should I have done with the 1% of TRAP I owned that got me about 22k shares in JOG when it reversed in?

You don't get anywhere in life being scared of losing. Work out the risk, if you accept it, then take it and expect to win. If not, stfu and don't tell others what they should do. Least of all me.

dyofr

Chaebol: you say:

"When DU informed the board at 250p that he hasn’t cashed out of a 10 fold 1000% profit was in my opinion absolutely ridiculous. No former investment professional would not de-risk their position cost it to zero at that kind of profit, so I find his misfortune in the loss of his paper profits negligible as he had the ability to make a substantial profit and didn’t. AIM market 10 fold profits we would all say thankyou very much especially with the risks in the O&G game".............

........what I find "absolutely ridiculous' is people like you making unsubstantiated statements they are incapable of justifying in any way are true.

I don't talk about the number of shares I hold although it should be reasonably clear I have a holding that is significant in most people's terms. How can you or anyone else judge what is 'absolutely ridiculous' when you know nothing about my financial position, how I view the portion of my overall wealth I have committed to the markets, my overall investment strategy, my approach to risk generally or anything else about me? I doubt I live my life under the same constraints as you do, for instance, mainly because I'm not you and possibly also because I decided to hang up my "professional" boots before I hit 50 after reaching the conclusion people spend a long time dead.

I'm not a ramper - clearly you and others don't get a lot of what I regard as banter but sometimes with a serious angle to it. I am still confident in JOG - why wouldn't I be? Price is what you pay, value is what you get. I invested in the people. How about you? Are they dead yet?

I don't post on the very few boards I do for personal gain. I don't learn anything from people like you (no offence intended - genuinely) but I do like engaging with oil industry pros from whom I can learn something about the technicals. I spent a long time valuing companies and what distinguishes good ones from bad (almost invariably the people who run them although for "super-gain" in an industry like O&G E&D, you also need luck).

I am presently invested in 3 E&D companies. If any one of them goes to either production or is taken out along the way, I win. If not - tough shi& - maybe I'll jump off a cliff; maybe I won't. I certainly won't need to because of what I have done outside my immediate area of expertise (and outside of investing in markets) since I decided to live life differently a while ago now. I don't seem to be struggling based on what I see around me.

to be continued

workover - re:

"1) don’t force your opinion down people’s throats and name call them when you don’t agree with them ! There’s a sign of being 8 years old!

2) act with a degree of humility and respect towards others

3) Show some dignity............

........when I want your advice I'll rattle a bag of peanuts. Only kidding - I really value your advice and thank you for it. Like Boxer, I will work harder (to eradicate my many faults). Did I mention I'd had a difficult start in life - my parents ran away from home when I was 11.

Good luck with your complaints at the AGM. Votes taken on directors' remuneration at listed companies' AGMs are 'advisory' only and don't change anything. Very few people would vote with you anyway. Since JOG reversed into TRAP in Aug 2015 the company's market cap - even at today's much reduced value - has increased 45x. No doubt you would have done better. If you want to allocate blame for choosing the wrong drill location (one where the geology wasn't behaving itself properly) then why not direct it towards Equinor, which is the operator and ultimately makes the decisions?

The exec directors are paid about 150k each - in the bottom quartile across the range. The fact you regard this remuneration level as 'astronomical' says more about you than it does about JOG's directors. People get paid low salaries because they don't have the skills or maybe the intelligence (or in some cases don't make the required effort) to enable them to demand more. It's simple economics. Clearly you have opted for a 'salaried' life at a certain level that covers your needs. You don't show any signs of ever having run a serious business or of understanding much about what it takes to do so, otherwise you wouldn't make so many naive and aggressive comments about others who do or have done (myself included). These don't claim to be infallible - no-one is perfect.

Oil & gas exploration demands good fortune - or maybe the avoidance of the bad kind. It comes with the territory. One can't preface everything that is written down with about a thousand caveats. Your personal insults don't help anyone. For me to say I was 90% sure the appraisal drill would find oil didn't commit others to this number. I clearly stated I might be wrong, as I have been before. Unfortunately (mainly for myself) I was. I doubt anyone who's posted on the board today (yesterday now) copped a bigger packet than I did today, but life goes on. There should be further appraisal idc - there's thought to be too much oil in the immediate vicinity just to walk away. That's just as I understand things btw.

Telling GB it would be easier talking to an average 8 year old was not 'name calling'. I was being truthful. As a matter of fact LSE has been inundated with complaints from any number of angry 8 year olds saying they've been badly insulted :-)

Let me know of any other character flaws, annoying habits or anything else I should be ashamed of for the drill fai

workover - which bits of: "I've got 90%+ chance of mean estimate (69MMboe) or better plugged into my thinking. I might be wrong (wouldn't be the first time)" do you not understand.

I did not state there was a 90% COS - I said that's what I had plugged into my thinking. I also stated I might be wrong.

As for being bullied and intimidated by me (and my cheerleaders - who would these be I wonder?) grow up you big cissy. I only criticise what is either plain daft or demonstrates a complete lack of research on the part of the writer. I can't wait for all the wisdom flowing from your educational posts now that you are back with a vengeance. I'm already used to the idea and am loving it.

No more sulking now, diddums eh? You should be thanking me if I drove you away - must have saved you a fortune (and cost me one instead).

dyor

.........."well said, i aked him a simple question that you cant look up and copy and paste he did answer"...............

...........I can just about work out what you mean GB. Looks like our truce is over. To be honest, I couldn't understand your question (if it was the one about the Jurassic sands). All I know is that a drill location was chosen where it was confidently thought Jurassic sands would be encountered - and they weren't. How a drill goes in on itself is beyond me. I assume you meant I didn't answer (because I couldn't cut and paste one) not that I did answer (which is what you wrote). It would be easier conversing with an average 8 year old.

For you to have been treated so courteously by two of JOG's directors after you had just walked in off the street, uninvited into JOG's private offices - then to have slapped all over the board your facile take on what they told you, before then going on to make a number of statements calling their integrity into question is utterly repugnant behaviour.

You went too far this morning by presenting deliberately false information about a major institutional shareholder and what you stated without qualification it had tweeted to all its investors about JOG. You went on to say the fund manager had offered to refund his bonus. The institutional shareholder involved made no such statement on twitter or anywhere else.

Good luck

dyor

workover - you seem to have a problem with reading and understanding words written in English. The following is what I wrote - you are being deliberately selective:

"I've got 90%+ chance of mean estimate (69MMboe) or better plugged into my thinking. I might be wrong (wouldn't be the first time) but have great confidence in the technical skills and understanding of Ron Lansdell (in particular) who's spent a lifetime in the industry at the right level. Equinor are said to know what they're talking about too".

So, I was wrong to have 90%+ confidence. And so were a lot of other people wrong who are much higher up the food chain than I am. Am I not supposed to tell others on here the way I'm thinking and my reasons for it? What are these boards for otherwise?

I am generally reasonably polite to people but I have no tolerance for thick or dishonest (or both) people. If I ridiculed you I would have had good reason for doing so. I can't now recall which of my two red lines you breached (maybe both?).

What is your purpose in posting so much on here today, workover? Are you invested, hoping to make a quick buck out of others' misfortune, or having a cowardly poke at me with the benefit of hindsight?

dyor

............it is one appraisal drill that has failed. For some reason, the Jurassic sands didn't extend that far in the direction chosen.

I don't believe the imaged data from the extended seismic study has yet been received (it was said to be due late Q2). Maybe this will provide more clarity? It seems to me there is plenty left to go at here and I await with interest news of the award of new licences in the 31st Supplementary Round (I think these are due in the summer sometime??) which deals only with licences in the Greater Buchan Area.

Today's news is a set-back for many reasons but JOG still imv offers considerable upside potential. Difficult to get a fix on a fair price but the sell-off looks well overdone to me. I'm estimating JOG will still have cash in the range £12m-£14m at the end of the year - I guess appraisal costs will now be some way less than anticipated?

"The appraisal well results will be fully integrated with the final processed data from the 3D seismic survey acquired in 2018 in order to evaluate the upside potential for further Verbier appraisal activity. A large part of the mapped area of the Verbier discovery, located to the north west of the 20/05b-14 well location remains untested. Additional resource potential, which was not tested with this well or the discovery well, has also been identified in a deeper horizon beneath the Verbier discovery. This, along with the Cortina prospect, will be matured with the new seismic data and be considered for future drilling".

dyor

..........you seem a nice individual.

You told us recently: "I’m new to this forum and know of one serious investor who holds 425000 shares in Jog who has regularly been topping up since last year . This is a serious holding"...........

.......should that cockroach also go back into the dirty hole where he belongs because he was optimistic about JOG's chances too ? Or do I bear sole responsibility for those with probably a hundred combined years of geological experience in Equinor, JOG & Cieco choosing the wrong location to drill what should have been a straightforward appraisal well firming up numbers coming out of the original discovery?

I take it you no longer regard me as a legend and am hurt.

dyor

workover; do I detect you're not a fan? ("DICKUPHAM is an ignorant arrogant narcissistical egomaniac who knew it all! He mislead many less vocal investors! Very dangerous man!"). Why not tell us what you really think, Einstein?

What's with this: "knew it all"? I haven't forgotten anything.

You state: "He has cost a lot of people a lot of money! He has made that verbier was risk free! A lot of inexperienced investors who held their breath to his every word ! Dangerous dangerous man ! Should be barred from posting for life !!!"

Gatto (whose word you accept without question - god help you) is equally disingenuous.

This is what I actually wrote about the appraisal drill at Verbier:

".......One description: "Appraisal wells can be abandoned after drilling or kept as future production wells. An Appraisal Well generally has a chance of success greater than an Exploration Well, but less than a Development Well".

2km away (ie where the present well is being sunk) was described recently by the CEO as 'fairly conservative'. It suggests to me the P2170 Partnership is confident Verbier contains a lot more oil than the bottom of the range estimate of 25MMboe. 2km away could hardly be described as "in the immediate vicinity of the (2017) well-bore", where the 25MMboe was 'seen' in 2017. Maybe it's suddenly evaporated after 65m years?.

I was being flippant in saying there is 100% CoS with the appraisal drill. There is always a chance of not finding more oil, although the CEO's use of the term 'fairly conservative' doesn't suggest to me that Equinor and partners is expecting to drill a dry hole. I've got 90%+ chance of mean estimate (69MMboe) or better plugged into my thinking. I might be wrong (wouldn't be the first time) but have great confidence in the technical skills and understanding of Ron Lansdell (in particular) who's spent a lifetime in the industry at the right level. Equinor are said to know what they're talking about too".

Today's announcement doesn't spell the end - or anything like it. You appear not even to have read the announcement properly or engaged your super-small brain on anything other than trying to make a quick buck out of others' misfortune. Don't concern yourself on my account, I'll probably manage to get by despite recording a paper loss today that would probably see me on the podium being awarded a medal if losing money was a competition.

I accept that as a ceo I probably shouldn't be posting at all on these boards but I feel honour-bound to get the price up somehow.

In the meantime please feel free to keep abusing/blaming me for whatever you want. There was a time when I used to end my posts (not just on JOG) with imo/dyor but I guess I must have forgotten.

There's an implied understanding that oil & gas explorers carry risk. Can't say I'm happy for anyone with today's news but it's life. I remain optimistic for the longer term and am fully maintaining my holding.

I blame Theresa May.

dyor

What's ropey about anything JOG has done since it reversed into TRAP, robs12?

What would you have done differently?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenny_Alexander_(businessman)

"His hobbies include no-limit cash poker, and when he worked at Sportingbet, considered becoming a professional gambler, about which his wife was "horrified". He owns four racehorses, and bets every day, either on horses or football".............

jasahem - you state: "FYI I didn’t say the accounts would be released in September - I stated that they are required by law to file accounts by September"....

What you state is true for private companies but listed companies (inc companies listed on AIM) must publish and file accounts within 6 months of the year end. In SQZ's case the accounts for the year ended 31 December 2018 must be published and filed by 30 June 2019.

In practice, companies tend to report results at broadly the same time each year, so SQZ would normally be expected to publish them around the second week of April (same as last year). There's been a lot going on recently, however, so it's possible there will be some slippage this year- but not into June and certainly not September, which you mistakenly say is allowable.

I'm not having a go at you - just reporting the situation accurately (I think).

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/companies-and-advisors/aim/advisers/aim-notices/aim-rules-for-companies-july-2016.pdf

dyor

Why is everyone promoting the headline: "Crashing GAS prices" by conversing on the thread? You're doing Nickelbottom's selling for him...........

..........GB - it's a number of different licences within the Greater Buchan Area that are "up for grabs", not Buchan itself.

......."Buchan" first started producing about 38 years ago and was still doing so until recently - not sure what the situation is today or even who owns it. Licence P2170 is adjacent to Buchan on three sides (loosely speaking). Blocks 20/5b and 21/1d are in Licence P2170, which was allocated to JOG (formerly Trap Oil) in the 28th Licensing Round in 2014.

https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/media/5115/buchan-area.pdf

https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Corporate-Presentation-January-2019-Rev-21Jan19.pdf

Wolfson - my price predictions are all 'tongue in cheek'. I am much more interested in long term value. Periodic references to £43 are based on the price subscribers to TRAP's IPO in 2011 would need JOG to reach if they were to recover the money they invested when TRAP listed.

It is perfectly feasible the value of JOG's shares would increase to £10 or more if the Verbier appraisal well confirms oil at the high end of the estimated range 25MMboe to 130MMboe. This is not to say the price would reflect this, because lots of holders would jump off somewhere along the way on good news being released with the share price increasing as a result, simply on the basis "a profit is a profit". The share price settling at a significantly higher level would depend on sustained buying in decent volume by new LTHs.

GB (again) the Equinor rig costs you were talking about on Wednesday were quoted in US$, not UK£.
https://www.equinor.com/en/news/19feb-west-phoenix.html

dyor

How much did you make on your shrewd investment in Debenhams, Nicklebottom??

All the companies you're an expert on hardly fit on LSE's pie chart (click on his name). You must spend all your time just keeping up with prices.

Energy prices are volatile and depend on all kinds of events that sometimes cause short term imbalance. Over the longer term these get ironed out. For companies with sound finances short term price weakness doesn't cause problems and SQZ is one such company - it is cash-rich, as its accounts will show when they're published shortly.

SQZ is in it for the long run and is an exceptionally well run company. Most contributors to this board are LTHs. People like you who play only prices and know nothing of the underlying fundamentals don't affect anything regardless of their transparent attempts to undermine confidence. You're wasting your time.

Day traders are a sad breed and you have my sympathy. Have you considered the horses?