Member Info for dickupham

Hi Mike - don't despair. Everyone feels the same way and most see the Shell farm in as transformational. It's being made to appear the opposite. You just can't predict how shareholders at the bottom of the register (in particular) are going to behave at any given time - they look for negative signs I certainly don't see. It looks as if there might have been a significant seller - they will just have been cashing in shares bought in a recent placing at sub 2p and banking the profits. Any overhang will clear. You have to have patience and give the fundamentals a chance to come through - which they will do in the end. They always do. There has to be a good chance the Company is on a bigger one's radar, but any sale won't be based on the current SP - that's for sure. The industry understands value even if a lot of PIs and day traders don't. aim1 doesn't appear to.

There's always high risk in oil & gas explorers but the risk of CLNR not getting to find out if there are significant volumes of gas in at least two of its licences just decreased a hell of a lot. We're not there yet but Shell know what they're doing and wouldn't have farmed in to P2252 and taken an option on P2437 if they didn't t hink there was a serious chance of discovering gas in commercial volumes.

Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Price is what you pay - value is what you get.

Patience

dyor

Gosh, what a noxious smell.

Just for info, GVC is registered in the IoM and therefore not subject to regulation/sanctions by the FRC. The former CFO laughed at me when he said they were also not subject to the provisions of the UK Cos Act. Feldman was chairman of the remuneration committee that approved a scheme a few years back that paid the equivalent of dividends on directors' share options. He benefited to the tune of close to £1m - the CEO and the CFO (then 'Roco' Cooper) were off the scale.

Feldman's a non-exec FFS. Since when did non-execs get £1m bonuses? It's your money (or rather it WAS your money). Gravy trains don't come into it. I did ok out of the shares (rec in Investors' Chronicle - I should have known) but couldn't bear to stick around once I found out enough to tell me what kind of people these are. And I don't go short in case you're wondering.

One thing that decades of investing has taught me is always to follow the money. Are people seriously trying to convince themselves this is a great buying opportunity, when two people who know more than anyone else, who have issued themselves share options like confetti and are telling people it's a great company to invest in, have now cashed most of them in in spades?? Wake up and smell the coffee. If they think it's so great, why sell? It's not as if they need the money thanks to their exceptional generosity towards themselves in the past.

Have a close look at the balance sheet (£2bn of intangibles and £2bn of debt) and cash flow (net cash generated - does it cover dividends? How about anything else?).

Then RUN.

all imo / dyor

.........shute!! I'm outta here fast...........

I wanna live

I hope for your sake Abatt's not a bloke, GB. Being "absolutely loved" by a bloke might not suit you. It would be bad enough if it was a woman - it would certainly kill me anyway. "Absolutely loved" - crikey. It's a frightening thought; these boards are scary enough as it is.

Can't recall saying anything about having a plaque made, Madman (takes one to know one) although I vaguely recall saying a few other things I now regret (only when provoked of course). It's buried. I can't promise to absolutely love you, though. That said, it's probably best for both of us.

We're all loved up here today (esp, GB - you hunk you). I've gone all goose-pimply. I can't feel much love personally but it doesn't mean there's no-one out there sending me love. That's what I keep telling myself anyway.

What does stfu stand for, by the way. I know what dyofr and 'imfo' mean but not 'stfu'. Best if I just stfu then, I suppose.

GL - the drill is turning..............

"Dick.......Fine by me 1 weeks holiday and that will include the calor gas bottle".........

........crikey, ajax - I wasn't expecting that level of generosity........calor gas isn't cheap, least of all in Skeggie where it's always in demand. I thought I was going over the top with the bus fares.......

Thanks, bud :-)

1. Is CLNR a 'blue chip'?

2. If not, is it a junior, AIM-listed exploration company in the oil & gas sector?

3. If it is, does its present market cap (£12m) factor in any upside at all if gas is discovered in any of its 7 licences?

4. If not, what could it increase to - say, based only on two licences one of the world's 'super-majors' has more than just shown interest in?

5. Do the other licences have significant value?

5. Are there risks involved?

Answers:
1. No

2. Yes

3. No

4. Min £100m (one discovery); £200m (two discoveries)

5. Yes

6. Don't be daft

dyor

Urraca - you're preaching to the converted. It was intended to be an utterly useless comment! It's impossible to predict the shopping habits of wildebeest (aka 'the herd')

As the man said: "price is what you pay, value is what you get".

How embarrassing - I say there's no humour here anymore then when I next look, there's a page of light-hearted banter which is perfect when not much is happening. Just as it should be. I started my last post about 9am then got distracted and forgot about it until I next logged in. That's my excuse anyway :-)

How about a bit of speculation to test present confidence levels? What volume range will the Verbier appraisal drill confirm? Let's say Equinor narrows it to 10MMboe either way. I'll kick, off optimistically as usual - only because it's hard not to have gleaned a certain level of excitement/anticipation from AB's recent presentations/interviews.

I'll go for 125MMboe - 145MMboe on the grounds appraisals usually refine estimates upwards (I just made that up but it sounds reasonable to me). Mid-point therefore 135MMboe.

I can offer a prize of a week in Ajax's super-luxury home-on-blocks in Skeggie whenever he buys it (hope this is OK Ajax?) to whoever gets closest to the actual number. I'll pay the bus fares (from Skeggie railway station) FOR TWO to get there.

As a reminder, 25-130MMboe is the present estimate.

noix, ferotty etc - relax - I don't intend to exchange insults with characters like sotb. I've put all that in the past. I do have a weakness in that I have great difficulty tolerating fools. I've always been the same, but I've come to realise that where these boards are concerned, it's best just to use the filter. This would be ok if it didn't result in a sea of red facing me every time I log in :-)

sotb essentially said I was a fraud. Would you have just allowed it to pass?

One of these days I'll finally decide to hang up my boots (not yet though - bad luck). Not that many are interested in reasoned opinions and there doesn't seem to be room for humour any more. I guess the money is just too important to most. Basically posting on blogs is a waste of time except that it helps maintain writing skills and focuses the mind on certain aspects of human (I think) behaviour.

I think the price will either go up or down. If it doesn't, it will stay the same.

LA - the reason the price has fallen since the Shell deal was announced is because there have been more shares sold than shares bought. It is called supply and demand. There have been no notifications filed that anyone who holds 3% or more of the shares (it's on the website) has reduced their holding.

a1m1 appears more than just keen that people should continue to sell. At no stage has he stated there is anything positive about recent events. My personal view is that for someone who does not own shares in the Company to spend so long every day from early morning to last thing at night talking down the company must have another financial incentive for the share price to fall.

I am not sure CLNR can be 'shorted' via spread betting - or in a more conventional way by borrowing stock (who would be lending unless internet brokers are now lending PIs nominee holdings - nothing would surprise me anymore; the City is bent). The lower the share price, the more money to be made on closing a short position.

If CLNR can't be shorted in a conventional sense, then the only explanation I can think of is that one or more of those who make a market in CLNR's shares is trading (short) for their own account, which would be illegal. Of course, since the vast majority of market makers are owned by investment banks, scrupulous honest is assured. Market makers are permitted by the mythical regulators to hold a short position in a stock stocks they cover "if it is a normal part of their market making activity".

Someone please define: "normal".

a1m1 is a stooge. Use the filter. The fez bloke is more conventionally educationally sub-normal. ditto

One thing is certain - the selling isn't justified to the extent we've seen, or anywhere near it. The SP is now lower that before we even knew CLNR was in talks with anyone about its licences. P2248 has been way over-hyped, as Exploration has clearly explained.

I genuinely believe that not that far down the line people will be scratching their heads and saying: "did we really pass up the opportunity to buy shares at 2.3p? It meant the Company was only valued at £12m and it was obvious that if Shell came up trumps on just one of the licences, hundreds of millions would be the prize. Doh......................... ".

aimho
dyor

"don't worry, the recent accounts were great and you're safe to stay in - it's just that we've sold 2/3rds of our shares because we've got so many" ..................

..........."oh and by the way, I'm still willing to have more options awarded to me which I'll only cash in when I go in 3 years time, assuming it doesn't all crash and burn before then because the accounts aren't all they seem"........

.........all mythical of course - I just have a vivid imagination.

That aptly sums you up sotb. The word "spineless" comes to mind.

Make as many ill thought out remarks as you like - I've applied the filter. You're not worth bothering with.

sotb - what silly accusations. Not sure what kind of people make these - silly ones I guess?

I posted for a long time under the moniker eagle51 on another site which was quite interactive for investors before it went down the pan, which is why I post here, where I don't learn much - least of all from posters like you. I don't have any other identities.

How about an apology?

...........in case people can't be bothered to read the whole few sentences - here's the nub of it (as I see it anyway):

" in other words a drill or drop commitment might have extended the 2248 licence, but rapid monetization of a success depends on Pegasus and Andromeda as export routes over which CNRL has no control. Money spent on even a successful well could be stuck in the ground for years with no prospect/control of a return".........

dyor.

............can I remind people again of how Exploration explained the relinquishment of P2248? Too many people who don't understand the first thing about the complexities of running an oil business make facile statements without any substance to them about this or that and what should have happened. If people don't know, or at least have a reasonable grasp of what's likely to the reason behind any specific event happening (or not), then it's probably best to stfu and leave it to others who do understand to explain.

Then listen.

"Sure, P2248 expires soon and, as we say in the trade, “no lease, no grease”. But there is more to it because of the churn of acreage.

When acreage becomes ‘open’ it may be available in the next licencing round. But, it’s not just CNRL caught in the churn of licences. For example, P1724, which includes Pegasus West in 43/13 reaches the end of its Second Term end-October 2019. Our immediate neighbour in 43/12 with the Andromeda prospect in P2128 expires soon too. One reason the 2248 farm-out failed to attract an investor was ‘cycle time’ – in other words a drill or drop commitment might have extended the 2248 licence, but rapid monetization of a success depends on Pegasus and Andromeda as export routes over which CNRL has no control. Money spent on even a successful well could be stuck in the ground for years with no prospect/control of a return.

Competitors’ strategies change too. For example, Centrica’s grip on Q43 was weakened when it hived off its E&P activities as Spirit Energy, but retained a 69% stake + instruction to concentrate on production and forget exploration. Spirit's only option to retain its exploration acreage is to find a partner.

To put it another way, CNRL can afford to let 2248 expire, go back to the drawing board and develop a powerful case to apply for the ‘old’ 2248 incorporating, say, a much larger area as a single unit. Impossible to accomplish alone, but could be done under a joint bidding agreement with a bigger company with, say, CNRL having a 25% (carried) interest.

Competitors are all in same position, with maps on the office wall showing expiring licences and constantly assessing the next options"

dyor.

Just seen your post, GB. Was around first thing but went back to bed and just re-emerged. Life's like that when you pass 100.

How can I help? Got a few people coming round for lunch so if it isn't a quick one (so to speak) it might be tonight or early tomorrow for an answer (if I can help)

By the way (it occurs to me a lot of people trading this share won't know where to look) everyone on the list except a1m1 and Jizz has a significant (long term) investment in CLNR.

"Price is what you pay; value is what you get"

Who do people think are the more likely failures among the following?

Algy Cluff
His fellow directors
Michael Spencer
Lloyd Dorfman
Clients of Fiske
Guinness Asset Management
Barclays Wealth Management
a1m1
Jizz the Tizz

Answers on a postcard.

A small early stage North Sea energy exploration company with an exciting future has just signed a farm out and an option agreement with one of the world's super-majors and within a year or two could have a market value of many multiples of what it is now. It's called Cluff Natural Resources. The risks are clear, everything about it is in order - except the bottom end of its share register, which is populated by people who know very little and understand even less. They know price, but they don't know (risked) value. They listen to people whose job is to write duplicitous posts - from 6am until midnight, 7 days a week - designed to trash the value of other people's investments made out of their hard-earned savings. Nice job, a1m1 - must be a source of great pride to you. I see you do the same on ADVFN. Anywhere else?

It's exploration - there is risk. Concentrate on the potential rewards. There is a good chance P2248 will be re-licensed to Cluff in an improved form in the 32nd Round. It will then be held by the usual types not to have any value because.......................P2437 and P2252 could be big winners. There is visibility on cash flow.

Somehow Cluff is now held by the market to be worth about £11m. Better sell some quick :-)

I'm not suggesting a1m1 and jizz the tizz are unsuccessful people, by the way. They just look a bit out of place in the list above.

Losers will do almost anything for money.

dyor

"Does anyone have knowledge of when the results from the spud should be expected?"..............

.............mid Q2 (May sometime) according to JOG........

.........that Equinor doesn't come up with the news Verbier is at the upper end of the 25-130MMboe estimated range. And that - if it's bidding for any - JOG doesn't get awarded any new licences............

..........the shares could hit 10p. Makes sense.

Although some LTHs might think the short term price doesn't matter, this isn't always true. If a company is looking to buy assets, for instance, and its paper is undervalued, it can't get the right value out of the assets it wants to buy if it is using its paper as a means of funding the purchase/s. Many smaller companies are tight on cash and to fund asset purchases they need to issue more shares to raise the money. If existing shares are undervalued, existing shareholders get diluted because, when true value does eventually emerge, there are a lot more shares (issued at less than fair value) to share the correction with.

In simple terms, it's a 'labourers in the vineyard' analogy - the ones who have only worked for the last hour get paid the same as the ones who've been working all day.

"Sell on the spud"- yeah, that's really clever, particularly when it's an appraisal well that's being drilled and it can't fail to improve on what's only just built into the price. Supply and demand win the day - even if only a small fraction of the shares in issue are being traded

What a shite day - pi55ing down with rain and Adam Boulton on TV asking Chuka Umunna serious questions - has Britain really come to this? How can I short him?

dyor