Member Info for dickupham

Before I address the various points you make, FD, could you please explain what you mean by:

"had Richard Griffiths not shown up the BOD may have faced some difficulties in raising further Funds from some institutions".........

A driver Is stuck in a traffic jam in London.

Nothing Is moving. Suddenly, a man knocks on the car window.

The driver rolls down the window and asks, "What's going on?"

"Terrorists are holding hundreds of MPs hostage in the House of Commons and they're demanding a £100 million ransom or they’re going to douse them with petrol and set them alight. We’re going from car to car collecting donations.

"How much is everyone giving on average?" the driver asks.

"About a gallon" the man replies………………………….

Richard Griffiths is a Welshman, not a Jerseyman (aka a 'bean').

Where he is resident is less relevant than where his controlled undertakings are based (Jersey). I, on the other hand AM a Jerseyman, so I know these things. There is no reason I can think of as to why the fact RG may or may not be resident in Jersey, or does or doesn’t know JOG’s directors has anything to do with him buying 6.87% of JOG (via Blake Holdings). A 6.87% holding certainly wouldn’t buy him a seat on the Board (if he wanted one in the first place, which I very much doubt). It’s pretty clear he likes making money and he might simply see JOG as undervalued and therefore a good longer term investment (or even a shorter term one).

I probably lost more (on paper) as a result of the duster than most others who post on here. But I didn’t lose as much as JOG's directors, who I don’t sense are people to whom their shares don't matter. Quite the opposite in fact.

Give them a break. My guess is that they’ll surprise on the upside sooner than you think. If I were a director of JOG (which I’m not) I’d be looking hard (and quickly) for opportunities to spread the risks more widely. My view remains that the ones making the decisions are cut from the right cloth and won’t let us down. There are no guarantees in this business, however and no junior explorer is ever right for those of a nervous disposition or who can’t afford the potential losses. But the rewards can be very high and they’re what I am looking for.

The above all personal views and opinions only. DYOR. If they’re wrong It will cost me more than most others. Good. It won't keep me awake at night (or day for that matter).

Just for you, Ajax (or was it you MadCrann?): price is what you pay; value is what you get. I should add, however, that where junior oil & gas explorers are concerned, you need average or better luck with the drill tip on top. I wouldn’t be writing off that static in Skeggy just yet if I were you. I really hope you manage to get it – you deserve to (not that this ever has anything to do with anything)

What are you planning for the £1 party, anyone in Jersey? I’ll fly over and join you if I can borrow the money for the flight..........

dyor

FD - I'm a bit confused.

A BoD is answerable to its members but In what way/s has JOG's breached its duties in this regard recently? The fact is that they probably don't yet know why the appraisal drill failed. They might be able to guess (or better) but it would be irresponsible to put something into the public they could not be certain was true – or indeed that the operator, Equinor- had not agreed should be released. There's a good deal more seismic data still to be received and the data from the failed drill still has to be fully analysed and married in with the wireline log data or whatever it's called before any firm conclusions can be drawn. No doubt when all the information has been carefully considered and action moving forward has been agreed between the partners in P2170, shareholders will be informed accordingly. This would be regarded by most as the right way to proceed. No doubt JOG has sought advice from its NOMAD in this regard

With hindsight it would probably have been better to wait until all the new seismic data had been received and fully considered before deciding where to sink the appraisal well. But can you imagine the abuse JOG's BoD would have received from the same people who are now calling for instant explanations and saying there should have been a Plan B?

JOG’s directors are undoubtedly acutely aware of how shareholders are feeling and feel bad about the well result. But they were not in a position to say more than they did when it first became clear the well was a duster. Everyone had known for a long time that all JOG’s eggs were in one basket – it’s just as things turned out and wasn’t planned this way. Enough explanations have been given as to why, so I’m not going there again

You say people are angry, but they would have been similarly angry had AB said to Malcy in a video that JOG wasn't that happy with the location of the appraisal well because they'd have preferred to be bolder and drilled a well (say) 5 km to the north-east of the discovery well, not 2km away in whatever direction was chosen. 5km away to the NE might be next for all we know (the above is a hypothetical situation only btw).

It seems to me that whilst Equinor was keen to be associated with the successful side-track drill in Verbier in October 2017, it was less keen to admit to being party to choosing what turned out, for whatever reason, to be the wrong location to drill an appraisal well, P2170 then strangely became 'immaterial' to Equinor’s “bigger picture” and it wasn't keen to do any explaining. What would you have done had you been a director of JOG in the above circumstances?

tbc

mjga786, with respect, I disagree. Why do JOG's directors need shaking up? What have they done that is wrong? Even if (unfairly) one would want to hold directors of exploration companies to blame for not finding oil (or gas) where it was expected to be found, we don't know JOG's were responsible for choosing the location of the appraisal well.

By "come on then" I think poortiming means: "you can start the discussions about JOG you want to see".

I would appreciate some guidance on why you find UKOG a company that's worth investing in as I see you're a supporter.
rgds
DU

.............if news of Shell farming into P2437 arrives soon.

Interesting that CLNR is getting on with the next series of farm-outs - inc Dewar in Licence 2352 (there's a coincidence):

"Estimated resource on Dewar oil prospect on Licence P2352 significantly enhanced - now estimated by the Company to contain up to 270 million barrels of oil in place with P50 Prospective Resources of 39.5 million barrels. Farm-out process planned to commence towards end of H1 2019"

All looking very promising although everyone knows it's exploration and is therefore high risk territory. There are many different opportunities, which reduces overall risk. CLNR probably only needs one to succeed to justify a price that's in multiples of today's.

Might be a much lower multiple of next week's price though (if Shell sign up).

I will never enter into debate with you, a1m1. I have stated my position and I stand by everything I said.

I have not insulted you. I have told you I pity you, which I do. I would pity anyone who spends most of his time trying to influence others to take the wrong action so that he can personally gain financially. You come across as someone who lacks honesty and integrity - this is just an opinion. You are free to challenge this by stating honestly why you have spent so much time writing so many posts that contain nothing except negativity - and this has been going on every day for months now. I haven't read many of your posts of late so please correct me if I am wrong in saying that you have never once acknowledged that you might be wrong and that Cluff might end up being a very successful North Sea player.

What do you hope to achieve? This is a chance for you to be honest - please grab it. It might even make you feel a bit better about yourself and start you on the road to moral recovery.

:-)

People who invest serious sums in oil & gas explorers understand the risks in drilling prospects and appraising discoveries. Or at least they should do. I owned just short of 1% of TRAP, which got me 20k JOG shares and I bought multiples of that number in the placing at 22p in Aug 2015. I bought a few times more again as the price fell to a low of just under 8p in Jan 2016 (when the oil price was at its lowest) valuing the whole company at less than the value of my house. I sold enough shares in 2017 (at more than £3 a share) to buy a good holding in SQZ and top-sliced to repay myself the full cost of the TRAP and JOG shares I'd used cash to buy. I still have a lot left. JOG doesn't owe me a penny. I have recently added at 66p.

The price didn't crash 80% and you're looking at the situation one-dimensionally. Equinor remain fully committed to Licence P2170 and further appraisal activity can be expected within a year, after the new seismic data is married in with the information gained during the failed recent drill. At the current price, JOG is imo seriously under-valued - time will tell. An exploration well at Cortina should be drilled with 12 to 18 months. Further cash might be needed but JOG has good brokers (BMO Capital Markets) and the price would recover on any announcement of JOG acquiring a producing asset. JOG is at a 'point in time' - as is CLNR. There are no guarantees. But if people want to make top returns it's no good buying after the news. The ones who make the highest returns are the ones who judge correctly that the risks are worth taking. And they aren't put off by people like you, a1m1.

As I said earlier, I feel sorry for you.

I see all posts relating to RG residential status have been removed. eg I asked FD if RG lived in Jersey and FD replied: "yes". Hardly controversial - unless he doesn't live in Jersey and complained about the thread?

Any thoughts?

I had a look at what the resident harbinger of doom has most recently been making up, after applying the filter a couple of months back. I see he is still making things up. I am not generally known for making price predictions because to attempt to do so is akin to predicting the behaviour of lunatics in an asylum. I am interested only in value, which generally plays out in the longer term. The reason I have recently (for instance) 'targeted' 10p (before the farm in) and 5-7p now is to try to establish a positive thread header which naysayers find irritating. I am fed up with seeing negative headers followed by posts in response to a1m1's deliberately negative and sometimes made up stories which repeat the negative message simply by replying on the same thread. Those doing so give his negativity leverage.

I pointed out in a recent post what I see as the compelling value in CLNR and Exploration (in particular) and a couple of others reinforce the position far better than I could ever hope to.

I did not make a price prediction of £43 for JOG. I jokingly suggested it would be a good price for the shares to get to because that was the price (adjusted for the 1 for 100 consolidation in 2015) which original subscribers to Trap Oil's (TRAP's) IPO in 2011 would need JOG to reach just to recoup their original investment.

Has it occurred to you what a sad individual you come across as, a1m1? You have been pumping out the same negative messages for months now. This discussion board appears to dominate your life. You must be making (or trying to make) money for doing so but is it really worth it? You come across as someone without integrity - someone who will do anything for money.

I have plenty but it has never dominated my life - there are many other things that are infinitely more important.

I find your situation sad and I pity you.

Shell is due to inform the Company by 30 April if it intends to farm in to Licence 2437 on the terms set out in the RNS of 8th February:

"P2437

The Company has granted Shell the Option to acquire a 50 per cent. working interest by 30 April 2019. If the option is exercised the Company will retain a 50 per cent. working interest and operatorship until a well investment decision is made with Shell paying the costs to date. The consideration receivable by the Company is a total of USD$600,000 which is comprised of an initial payment and a further payment upon completion.

If a decision is taken to drill an exploration well on P2437, Shell will pay a share in the proportion of 1.5:1 of the cost of an exploration well and the well test subject to an aggregate cap of USD$25,000,000. Shell would therefore pay 75% of costs up to a total of USD$25,000,000. Any cost over-runs associated with the well above this level are to be satisfied by each party in proportion to their working interest.

If the Option is exercised completion will be conditional upon agreeing a Joint Operating Agreement and receiving consent from the Oil & Gas Authority.

P2437 contains the Selene prospect which is estimated to contain unaudited mean GIIP of 509 BCF (equivalent to approximately 90 mmboe) and is located adjacent to Shell operated infrastructure associated with the Barque gas field"

https://www.investegate.co.uk/cluff-natural-res--clnr-/rns/farm-out-of-licences-to-shell-u-k--limited/201902080700024367P/

The only certainties in life are death and taxes but we haven't heard Shell has walked away and there's only a week to go. Shell will have been working on the licence since well before 8 Feb.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/cluff-natural-res--clnr-/rns/farm-out-of-licences-to-shell-u-k--limited/201902080700024367P/

The message is that if Shell do farm in, what is described as an appraisal well will be drilled inside a year. Plenty of scope and time to get together the funds needed for drilling via a modest farm-down of CLNR's 50% and the $600k would be added to existing cash for working capital moving forward. If 10% was farmed down this would leave CLNR with 40% of P2437 and a discovery would make it the owner of 36MMboe if estimates are proved up. At $10pb I make this $360m - say £275m, or 45p a share fully diluted. Even if only half the gas were to be proved, it would still be a game changer

Then there's P2252 and the other licences. Who said oil & gas wasn't an exciting place to invest money it won't kill you to lose if things go wrong?

There are significant risks at every stage and nothing is ever certain until the gas (or oil) is flowing, or the prospect (or the Company) is sold and the money is in the bank.

DYOR

..........you're too polite, Shredders.

It's almost as if GB has replicated.

Dillusion??

Does mrfedup mean dilution, delusion or dissolution?

The logic is certainly delusional.

A connected broker commented when the share price was 186p in late 2018 that at that price the market was only factoring in the min 25MMboe it was known Verbier held (and was therefore valuing the rest of the Company's assets, except cash, at nothing).

What does this say about the present SP at more than £1 less?

Why not pick up the phone and ask them?

But you and others only seem to view things in one-dimensional terms - cash - so you won't get an answer that suits you, even if they were inclined to answer pointless questions. What about all the time they weren't paid anything whilst establishing a vehicle fit to reverse into TRAP, with the technical and other resources to take the combined enterprises forward? How do you value the risks they - and families and friends - took along the way?

What existed in the original JOG was rolled into TRAP in exchange for 27% of the shares in a new enterprise incorporating the remnants of TRAP, which via a name change became the new JOG. Existing holders of TRAP shares also got 27% and the balance of shares (46%) went to subscribers to a placing that raised about £800,000 for working capital needs as they progressed their initial strategy. At the same time there was a 1 for 100 share consolidation, reducing the 843,600,000 shares then in issue to 8.436m shares in the new enterprise.

From a personal perspective I always look for commitment from executive directors both in financial terms and in 'devotion to duty'. As far as I am concerned, this has always been evident in spades in JOG's principal execs' case.

fwiw I stopped posting because I got fed up with being blamed for events going on 12,000 feet below the seabed and being drawn into discussions with people whose lack of knowledge and understanding makes rational debate impossible.

When Wolfson is reminded he can't justify damaging comments intended to present JOG's directors in a bad light (whilst claiming to own a significant number of shares) he responds: "Crooks like you are no better than con man Malcy, perhaps you are related , you probably look like him too!. FYI I own much more shares than you and people like you should be banned on these forums as you post as GB put it dribble (I think you mean 'drivel' wolf, but who's counting, eh?) and a lot of crap...............So far you have not delivered , it makes me cringe that you still have the nerve to show your face on this board. Your name speaks for itself , it is a reflection of who you are, full off crap..........Dick did hide after the duster as he was obviously too embarassed to show his face. Then again people like him have no morals, ethics or dignity"............

......amazing conclusions to reach based on what I've written on here. Not quite sure how he knows how many shares I own as I have never disclosed the number (except to the Company, as a matter of courtesy as I hold them in nominee accounts). I suppose, based on all the other information he has knowledgeably provided, we have to believe him.

:-)

Wolf, it doesn't work like that. I haven't become anything. You have made a number of statements recently, presenting information as if it were fact. I have asked you to corroborate those statements, which you won't (because they are untrue - 'lies' would be another way of describing them). Statements that are designed to mislead or to create a false impression cause others damage and infringe the law. I assume you are now retracting them.

It is also not for me to prove that the BOD have invested more than £100k in shares in JOG. You made the statement, not me. For you now to claim you were justified to because "I've heard it is around 100k sterling" (you heard it from GB) and I have to prove it's higher is puzzling. Are you on something?

Working in the City doesn't seem to have given you much of a clue about how companies should be valued. Standards (including honesty and integrity) are much lower now than at any time in the past so this is perhaps no surprise. I do know that at one time it was expected that those employed in the Square Mile were expected to be able to spell and write properly and (for instance) know the difference between 'their' and 'there'.

To tell the truth I don't give a rat's ar5e what you decide to do with your holding. I dislike having people like you owning shares in a company I'm invested in because your presence on boards like these can only cause damage. You would do well to stfu because as far as I can tell you haven't got any useful knowledge to offer on anything reated to investing.

jmofwiw

Wolfson: you say: "FYI Bod don't have too much of their own money invested"............

.............you're now giving me more information I'm supposed to believe because you have said it. Please tell us how much AB & RL invested in the company they owned (the original JOG) which reversed into Trap Oil (which was renamed JOG) in 2015. I'll expect your reply (with the numbers) shortly. You seem to have taken your lead from GB. Not a good start.

The original JOG was set up before TRAP came up for grabs and JOG's owners rolled their JOG into the listed TRAP (they took 27% of the new enterprise). They also acquired shares in the first and subsequent placings and have also bought in the market. They must have felt the shares represented good value even if it has turned out otherwise so far, but value hasn't played out yet. The Company is at 'a point in time' and its true value has yet to be determined. I am not aware the directors have sold any of their shares.

Can I remind you that, despite me asking you on a number of occasions, you still haven't provided anything to corroborate the information you provided about Longreach Oil & Gas, which was designed to paint Andrew Benitz and others in JOG in a bad light. As a matter of fact the situation you presented was a false one. The circumstances causing AB and his father (and Ron Lansdell for that matter) to leave Longreach (which subsequently performed progressively poorly after new management took the company in different directions to those favoured by the departees) need understanding, as most boardroom coups do. So I'm still awaiting your explanation for the false statements you made in presenting the situation.

You now say sarcastically: "(The) Bod have obviously been remarkable which is reflected in the current share price"............

You make the classic mistake of thinking price automatically reflects value. It doesn't - in the short to medium term at least. It reflects the current popularity of the stock ('stock' is another name for 'share' in case you don't know). It isn't rocket science if you understand how markets work. It's called 'supply and demand' and this sets prices. I valued shares for a living so I understand the various relationships and what constitutes 'fair value' in a given set of circumstances. Valuing shares in a company is more of an art than a science but everything in the end is based on measurable investment return. You weren't clever enough to invest in JOG at lower prices, which is no surprise. Those who, for instance, bought a significant holding in the Company at between 25p and 8p in 2015/16 probably feel differently to you about their investment, particularly if they top-sliced at above £3 a share. Some of them might not even have particularly needed the money their investment went on to become worth. It's unwise to tar everyone with one's own cheap brush, wolf.

Congratulations on being in New York btw.

FD - apart from discovering there was no oil-bearing sand when the recent appraisal well was drilled (the same with the discovery drill in 2017, although the decision to drill a sidetrack negated this) what would you have done that was different to what JOG's directors have done since the original JOG reversed into the basket case known as Trap Oil in 2015, when the combined enterprise had a market value of less than £1m?

Their performance to date, given the restraints placed on them by a shortage of cash throughout, has imv been remarkable and shareholders have a great deal to thank them for. I agree it would have been preferable to have had a wider base of assets to spread the risks going into the various drills, but that would have been in an ideal world.

JOG's BOD have definitely tried throughout to identify producing interests meeting criteria set by, inter alia, providers of the RBL funds that would be needed to make the right sort of acquisition. In at least one case an appropriate target was identified and JOG was the preferred bidder, but a competitor with ready cash won the day. JOG can't afford to overpay. People make it sound easy - find a winner but pay **** all. Go do it.

I wouldn't have AB's and RL's jobs for the money they're paid - and I doubt they would either if they didn't have so much of their own money tied up in the company. Living in rented accommodation in a place they probably wouldn't choose to live in, spending half their lives on planes to London, Aberdeen or wherever, operating out of pokey offices to save money - I'd hardly call it a glamorous life. As for being overpaid, I wouldn't have got out of bed for what they get today - and I'm talking the same currency when I was last working in a conventional sense nearly 20 years ago now.

In 2015 JOG intended to be a non-operating, production focused oilco generating cash for shareholders until the company was bought by a bigger player for a few hundred million a few years down the line. 10kbpd and 20MMboe of reserves was planned for 2 years in. What changed was JOG's directors discovering TRAP was sitting on in an exciting licence (P2170) it had done nothing with because a 'value investor' (a bit like RG but he owned 27%) had pushed his weight around, sacking people to save money, to the extent that by 2015 TRAP was a basket case about to go bust..

Go back to TRAP's 2015 AGM and you'll see what happened - and who was involved in making sure certain people didn't get to just walk away with money while shareholders got screwed. Griffiths might see value in JOG, but his types do nothing for me and I believe I am qualified to judge.

I now have more invested in JOG. I back people I believe are winners, I don't buy shares or other assets. Nothing has fundamentally changed. An appraisal well failed. It is a setback. Overcoming it is the challenge.

What would RG bring to the party? What do you know about him that others don't?

Gosh, you're up with the lark, wolf. Hope my last post didn't keep you awake puzzling over all that Dunning-Kruger nonsense. I didn't really mean it as you're up there with the best when it comes to incisive interpretation of how businesses should be run if they're to reward their investors fairly (sorry about all those 'theres', 'they'res' and 'theirs' - I'm not trying to confuse you).

Don't forget to post the further information I asked for about Longreach Oil& Gas, will you?

Your cruel comments about Hush Puppies were hurtful - not just to me but probably to a lot of other people up and down the country who count them as favourites as well. Have you tried them? You should - I'm sure you'd like them. They're very comfortable - fashionable too.

And on the subject of hobbies, what's wrong with train spotting (although I have to say I do prefer water-skiiing, when the weather's good)? You didn't mention 'twitching,' which is another of my hobbies. It's very interesting at this time of year. As an example, I'll probably go out later in search of a shag. Shags used to be quite common around these parts (I live next to the sea) but have become much less so these past few years. It can be tiring looking for one but worth it if successful.

What are your hobbies. wolf? I'd be interested to know how savvy investors like you spend their time when they're not making a fortune using their business and other skills and understanding.

Just as a reminder, don't forget to post that info about Longreach Oil & Gas being bought by the Moroccan Government, will you.

Strikes me you might be an archetypal victim of a cruel affliction, wolfson:

"In 2011 David Dunning wrote about his observations that people with substantial, measurable deficits in their knowledge or expertise lack the ability to recognize those deficits and therefore, despite making error after error, tend to think they are performing competently when they are not: In short, those who are incompetent, for lack of a better term, have little insight into their incompetence—an assertion that has come to be known as the Dunning–Kruger effect. In 2014 Dunning and Helzer described how the Dunning–Kruger effect "suggests that poor performers are not in a position to recognize the shortcomings in their performance because they are incapable of doing so".

You clearly also fail to recognise the same incompetence in others. Anyone finding a single one of GB's unintelligible offerings the remotest bit helpful (you quote him as an authority) needs to have his head examined.

The general point about the failure of some to be able to spell relatively simple words in common use in their native language, or to express themselves in ways others are able: a) to understand and b) recognise there is a link to business reality in what they state, is that their claimed understanding of what has happened and what should happen henceforth is unlikely to be founded on reality. I am not in any way suggesting you are no good at things like 'Lego', 'snakes and ladders' and "Snap" (for instance).

I'm still waiting for a link to the corroborative information supporting your unconditional assertion that Longreach Oil & Gas was bought by the Morrocan Government. Further detailed explanation from you about what happened will suffice if you can't now find the relevant data.

Many thanks in advance.

BD

PS I placed my £5 ew bet with William Hill. The fact you failed to understand it was a figure of speech says a lot about your general intelligence

Chapter 3

The oil hasn’t gone away. Nor has the vision for JOG’s future outlined by its directors, who imv are people of considerable ability and unquestioned commitment and integrity. The story about Longreach which you disgracefully posted yesterday is utter nonsense btw, Woolfson – a minority is not always wrong – try doing a bit of research into the facts before shouting your mouth off. Please provide a link about the company now being owned by the Moroccan government No, I didn’t think you would.

JOG’s directors’ ambition and commitment remain undiminished despite the blow they and we as fellow shareholders have suffered. They are not infallible. Nor are they likely to be full of money to buy gazillions of shares. It is possible that what has happened recently to JOG will strengthen both JOG’s directors and its shareholders in the longer term; strange things can happen.. We all learn something new every day and should strive to benefit from it. I, for instance, have leaned humility and consideration for others, particularly if they’re dopey beyond measure (take a bow, wolf, Herron, Banjo etc). Since when did a 6% holding get a seat on the Board, whoever said it, btw??

It seems likely to me that more oil will be found idc (maybe to the north and east of the first drill location and/or deeper) which will add to whatever Verbier can now safely be estimated to hold (more than 25MMboe but we don’t know how much more). We aren’t likely to find out either, for the time being at least. Why would JOG put info into the public domain what other oilcos interested in the 31st Supplementary Round Licences (Greater Buchan) might use to their advantage and JOG’s disadvantage?

I won't talk about Cortina and whatever else the new data shows when it’s received in June.

Not much is likely to happen (drill-wise, although there will probably be plenty of news) in the next 12 months, so why not put that cash to good use in the meantime? The share price needs a boost and more stability is needed - that much is now abundantly clear. It’s looking increasingly likely that more cash will be needed next year to fund future drills if the final seismic data supports it when it has been fully studied and married in with data from the appraisal drill. RBL funding is probably available so something worthwhile looks to be affordable if properly structured, assuming buying profitable production is still on the agenda and there are suitable opportunities.

I’ve put £5 ew on JOG buying a producing asset before the end of the year. Start the clock…………

Warning; make all your own decisions; carry out all your own research. none of what I write should EVER be taken as investment advice. anything stated as a fact is only ever an opinion. only invest what you can afford to lose. I haven’t got x-ray eyes; wrap up warm when there’s a northerly wind. Have I missed anything?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=cp7_u0kcQRo