Member Info for dickupham

I don't post here much now. 2 or 3 posters have ruined it for everyone. They're sad people who must get something for trashing other people's investments. Their messages are always of certain failure and there constant presence has probably caused enough uncertainty in the minds of some to prevent them buying into this exciting and well-managed company. Others will have sold because of the ever-present negativity.

I've applied the filter - why not do the same?

No-one can change the fact that a holding in any junior explorer is a high risk investment. In most, though, there's some sort of correlation between the degree of risk and the potential upside.

In CLNR this doesn't apply. The scales are way out of balance.

CLNR holds 7 UKCS Licences - it expects to be awarded more in future Licensing Rounds. In particular it holds 30% of UKCS Licence P2252 and 50% of Licence P2437.

Shell has farmed into both. In regard to the latter "Shell has indicated its intention to commit to drill an exploration well on the Selene Prospect at the soonest possible opportunity. Under the Option Agreement, Shell will pay 75% of the cost of an exploration well, including testing, subject to an aggregate cap of USD$25,000,000".

" Licence P2437...... contains the 291 BCF Selene prospect (P50 Gross Prospective Resources)".

"The prospect is imaged by high quality 3D seismic data and is highly analogous with a number of nearby fields including the Shell operated Barque gas field".

"The Selene prospect is estimated to contain unaudited mean GIIP of 509 BCF (equivalent to approximately 90 mmboe) in a four-way dip closed structure in the Leman Sandstone. P50 Prospective Resources associated with the Selene Prospect are estimated at 291 BCF (or approximately 50 mmboe)".

"The Selene prospect is considered low risk with an estimated Chance of Success of 39%"

https://www.investegate.co.uk/cluff-natural-res--clnr-/rns/shell-u-k--limited-exercises-option-on-p2437/201904301008185510X/

CLNR has said it will farm down a % of P2437 to fund its 25% share of a P2437 exploration well. What % would be enough? A fair estimate might be 15% of the licence (leaving CLNR with 35% - or 17.5MMboe) which would probably produce enough to fund its share of the well and also make a contribution to working capital.

On a discovery at P50 level, CLNR's 17.5MMboe @ $7pb - rock bottom ppb for discovered gas? - CLNR's interest in Selene would be worth $122m or £94m.

15p a share on P2437 alone. CoS 39%.

Exploration - you know a lot more than I do about everything (except what experienced accountants are supposed to know that others might not) - can you comment on the $7pb I use above (ppboe - discovered gas in the ground)? Can you put forward some similarly constructed numbers for P2252?

None of the above is a prediction.

dyor

bullson - the 'map' you linked is the same as the one linked in this morning's RNS (in the CEO's statement I think?).

Reads positively to me

No surprise there's not much of a price recovery despite the positive update. Short term traders (who largely set the share price on the "supply vs demand" principle) don't do value, they do 'price'. News that attracts new longer term investors in decent volumes will imv be needed before we see a return to something approaching fair value.

I get to a value of something like £2 a share (JOG's 18% of 25MMboe in Verbier - say £1 a share + cash + cash value of tax losses) without ascribing any value to JOG's other assets, or including anything for future potential. Much depends, in forming a view on fair value, on attitude to risk and assessment of the impact of likely future events. Reads to me as if there's a real prospect of some income-generating production coming our way soon but I've been over-optimistic before on this. Fingers crossed. I'm also optimistic about the potential award of more licences in the Greater Buchan Area.

"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"............"Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago" (Warren Buffett)

GLAL
dyor

GB - if you're going to quote people, you should do so accurately. As an aside, I find it a bit sad that you should spend so much time looking back through my posts (36 pages of them) trying to find something you can use to present me in a bad light. Why not use your time more productively by reading Shakespeare or The Bible, for instance?

In the 2 posts you refer to, in one I pointed out to someone who had twice publicly labelled me "a serial wife-beater" that people who make libelous statements on a public forum can't hide behind their chat-room anonymity and in the other I gave an opinion on the worth of your contributions (which I am perfectly entitled to do) and how I found you at the time.

I must have been more charitable back then :-)

re: "RG hasn't "rattled my cage" - you have, GB".............apologies - I meant FD.

You haven't rattled any cages at all GB

MC: I don't have a definitive answer. Below are the official updates I can recall seeing. I don't say there hasn't been a more recent update - I just can't recall one. What's below is from a RNS of 28 June last year and from the CEO's report on the interim results announced on 20 Sept:

28 June RNS........."the 3D seismic survey over the P.2170 (Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d) ("P.2170") licence area and certain offset acreage conducted as part of a wider GeoStreamer MultiClient 3D seismic survey by Petroleum Geo-Services ASA ("PGS") in the Moray Firth area has now been completed on time..............Delivery of the final imaged data by PGS from the survey continues to be expected in late Q1 2019. This data will be integrated with the results from the Verbier appraisal well, scheduled for drilling late Q3/early Q4 this year, which, in a success case, will be an important step for strategic planning as the Verbier project progresses into a potential future development phase.
Andrew Benitz, CEO of Jersey Oil & Gas, commented:
"We look forward to achieving a comprehensive update of our geological and geophysical understanding of the greater P.2170 licence area, integrating the results of the forthcoming Verbier appraisal well with the PGS newly acquired, high quality 3D dataset. The information to be derived from the appraisal well, together with the new 3D data, will be an important step towards the potential future development of the Verbier discovery and will facilitate our evaluation of other drillable prospects in the P.2170 licence area."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/completion-of-3d-seismic-survey/201806280700098314S/

CEO's report 20 Sept 2018: "Post the reporting period end, the co-venturers have approved the delivery of a fast track processed dataset volume from the PGS survey that overlays Verbier and Cortina which is scheduled for delivery in December 2018. The fully processed dataset we expect to be delivered during Q2 2019.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/interim-results/201809200700133326B/

I'll be surprised and disappointed (to use a topical phrase) if we aren't given a comprehensive update when the annual statements are released - otherwise why delay them?

I doubt anyone in JOG is twiddling their thumbs. They'll have taken the disappointment on the chin and doubled their resolve.

jmofwiw
dyor

T...... oo little detail
W......here's your forecast?
A.......always negative
T........his is an understatement

"Equinor are not answerable to it's Partner's Shareholders".............

...........not sure about Equinor not being accountable to its shareholders - if it isn't accountable to its shareholders who is it accountable to?

Equinor is,definitely accountable to its P2170 partners, even if it does have all the financial muscle and its preferences (in practice) are never going to be ignored. The partnership between Equinor, JOG & CIECO provides that at least two of the three partners have to be in agreement for an action to take place. Where UKCS licences are concerned, my understanding is that the 'cut off' comes at 72% ownership, which gives sole discretion to a holder of this percentage or above. Equinor holds 70% of P2170.

Yes bullson, a balanced post as usual. It was a welcome change from the contributions of a few others on here recently, calling for immediate and radical change, people to be punished, employee numbers to be reduced, overheads to be slashed, new people who know precious little about oil to be appointed to the BoD (which needs shaking up for not choosing the right location). And the BoD must clarify past statements and in future report every last detail of what's going to people who wouldn't be likely to understand it anyway.

We've all known for a a long time that JOG has become an explorer - which is not what it set out to be - but the results of this until recently have been positive. I wasn't expecting the appraisal drill to come up with a negative result and the financial effects for me were punishing. If you invest in junior E&Ps you have to accept the risks for buying into potential rewards that can be high. When things don't go as anticipated it is wrong to make false accusations about directors and their motives - and to criticise others for 'inducing' you to invest because they were optimistic.

The failed appraisal drill might only be a temporary setback, not a game-changer. For people with no real expertise to make a series of posts advocating any number of naively constructed quick-fixes is not imv an intelligent way to approach the situation. People were free at all stages to remove their money when the price was a lot higher but chose not - that is their affair. The term: "bad losers" comes to mind. Their outspoken criticism of people who have given every ounce of their expertise and enthusiasm for what it has to be said is modest financial reward for directors of a listed company is imv totally misplaced.

I don't say any of the above is right or wrong - I'm simply expressing a few opinions not directed at anyone in particular. Apologies if this is unreasonable to the many experts out there

dyor

No probs, MC - I thought someone I have on filter might have threatened violence, having said he knows who I am (he doesn't but it wouldn't bother me if he did). It's very kind of you to love me - I've missed this in my life ever since my parents ran away from home when I was 11.

It isn't the directors' job to 'manufacture' news with a view to supporting or inflating their company's share price. Supply and demand fixes share prices. When there are more buyers than sellers the price increases - and vice versa, I doubt you'd find there have been many long term holders of significant quantities selling since the bad news on the drill (with the exception of Schroders & RG). Short term traders move in and feed off weak holders who sell on news and move on to their next short term target. With <22m shares in issue, JOG's shares are tightly held, so when news is positive, share price escalation can be rapid. My guess is that the annual results announcement has been delayed so that a meaningful chairman's and CEO's update on progress can be given. There might even be a bigger announcement. I'm just speculating.

Glass house, FD? You'll never accept anything you say isn't correct in every respect. Much what you say is flawed, particularly in relation to how complex businesses should be run. There are a number of posters on here whose contributions are valuable. These will know who they are. I wish I had more of their temperament and was able just to let things go over my head but I find it very difficult because I hate people being misled by others whose understanding is limited (or worse).

Am I right in thinking that, in your book, directors of Oil E&P companies that drill a dry hole should be punished?

That would make sense. I don't think I need say any more

:-)

MadCrann - to be honest I'm fed up with this. I get persistently attacked for giving views that are built on sense. Were I to have spent my career at the top end of the oil & gas industry, how many people would challenge views I know to be valid? I'll leave you to answer that one; I reckon I know.

Yet when it comes to interpretation of complex circumstances, knowledge of business generally, the practical difficulties involved in juggling limited resources to produce the best results whilst still keeping as many other options open as possible, judgments on the capability and integrity of directors I have met on a number of occasions - I could go on - it seems to many that their views are better than mine. Am I to be blamed for becoming a bit impatient when people who can't even spell or write, or it's clear have run the equivalent of a sweet shop and think they know it all insist their views are better than mine? The views of people without little or no relevant experience, given without thought or real understanding, aren't much use to anyone.

I was a commercially-focused partner running a regional office for one of the big accounting firms until I decided to do other things with my life when I was 50; I worked in 4 different offices for my Firm (inc London) over the years and dealt with countless listed companies. In the latter part of my career my interest lay in advising owners of decent- sized SME's how to grow and become more profitable. I also specialised in company/share valuations, mainly in connection with disputes resolution and I frequently gave expert evidence in this connection.

If there's anything to criticise JOG's directors for it's that they were too optimistic and didn't warn shareholders of the risks attaching to the appraisal drill (kindred spirits to RG perhaps?). I was certainly foxed but genuinely don't believe it was deliberate. It shouldn't have happened but it did. It's oil exploration and it's always high risk. How high is high? I'll be just as optimistic next time.

As it turned out the shares weren't overvalued when JOG thought they were, so maybe they should have tried harder to buy a producing interest. Maybe they'll try harder now?

Re the cash to buy an asset, you'd have to look back through the info to where AB said he didn't mind borrowing on a RBL basis (I think it was in one of the Malcy videos) because the income would service the debt. He said early on that a major bank was lined up to lend against the right asset/s. I wouldn't be surprised if JOG lost one deal at least where it was the preferred bidder but a competitor had ready cash. No doubt JOG would use some of its cash too.

I don't have friends in the company. I have met AB & RL a few times and respect for them as individuals and as businessmen. I believe the respect is mutual. I expect JOG to succeed despite the recent set-back. So do they.

I'll keep my views to myself in future.

plse explain: "You won't touch me"???

MadCrann - I'm not sure there's much for me to have misunderstood. There have been some very naive suggestions made about how JOG should immediately make significant changes and the directors are said to need "shaking up" - all because an appraisal drill went wrong, when there's no certainty JOG had that much of a say in the drill location because Equinor is the operator and pays the lion's share of the costs.

The day after JOG announced the dry hole at Verbier, Serica Energy (SQZ), in which I have a few hundred k invested, also announced a dry hole in Rowallan. There were differences in that SQZ had a free carry from ENI and SQZ already has a decent level of production and is generating an alarming amount of cash, but not a single criticism was made of anyone in either ENI or SQZ (which is as it should be) because the share doesn't seem to have attracted anywhere near the same number of clueless followers. The seeming desire of some people here to hit out indiscriminately because they're sore at seeing the value of their shares dive is pitiful. If you aren't prepared to accept the risks, you shouldn't invest in oil & gas juniors, least of all ones that are so dependent on a single asset.

Risk sits alongside reward - you cant have one without the other.

As for: "are they really trying hard to buy that asset? With cash in the bank how hard exactly is it to purchase something?"

They have never had enough cash. RBL is likely to be needed to pay for the right asset/s. They have tried hard, particularly before the Verbier discovery (the potential value of which has never been reflected in the share price). Up to a hundred UKCS that were said to be for sale actually weren't for sale at all. It had to do with impairment write-downs and getting as much overhead off later years' P&L accounts as possible whilst the low oil price and poor trading conditions in the UKCS could be blamed for big losses (made bigger by the impairment charges). Auditors had to be convinced and what better way of doing this than putting the impaired assets up for sale? They just asked silly prices.

If you're not with me, it was all to do with directors salaries and bonuses, particularly in the majors. Big losses they couldn't be blamed for followed by profits in later years with the oil price back to normal with no asset depreciation to deduct. The said directors would't of course then claim the big profits were the result of their sheer talent. Nah.

A judgment call then had to be made by JOG because, with a low share price ahead of what was expected to be a fruitful appraisal drill, the money needed to buy a worthwhile asset would have required a further share issue, which would have diluted existing holders to the extent the shares being issued to raise the money were undervalued. This will no doubt be hailed as another failure on the part of JOG's directors. They have never had their eyes off the ball

tbc

The link to the JEP didn't work, btw (not that it matters).

I'll bet you a tenner that if RG was asked how he regarded himself he'd say: "I'm a Welshman living in Jersey".

Is it more likely a person born and brought up in Scotland, who was living in Cornwall, would say: "I'm Cornish" or "I'm a Scotsman and I'd love to spend a week in the sack with Nicola Sturgeon in the buff". OK, that's a close one.

I would say: "I'm a Jerseyman living in the UK".

Sting would say: "I'm an Englishman in New York".

No offence intended. It doesn't matter anyway, because things don't happen in Jersey the way some people state they do. My 'lecture' on directors and their responsibilities was intended for anyone who wasn't familiar with what I took the trouble to explain.

Hopefully the RG story can now be put to bed. I hope he makes a fortune on his investment. I'll sell mine if he's made a director. When I invested in JOG, I invested in the people behind it. RG isn't someone I'd want to invest in, regardless of his financial success in the past. I doubt he'd want to become a director anyway.

imo/dyor

https://gvc-plc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/GVC_Annual-Report-2018-Final.pdf

Page 2

https://gb.wallmine.com/lse/gvc/officer/997782/lee-feldman

Not bad for a non-exec :-)

Don't forget to add on the millions from sales of converted options. Anyone recall the period when they were paying themselves the equivalent of dividends on countless millions of options before they were converted? Guess who chaired the committee that approved that neat move. Yeah - you got it. Did he benefit personally? Got it in two.

Fear not - the ONLY reason these people sold all those shares - most recently at 666p (is someone taking the P?) - was because they preferred the money sitting in their bank accounts. "I won't be selling any more - honest".

Not until the next time, that is.

Never mind the also-rans buying a token few out of petty cash after the event. ALWAYS follow the money.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=smell+of+rotting+meat&newwindow=1&rlz=1C2CHBD_en-GBGB765GB765&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjF35TJsZLiAhWxThUIHchBAawQ_AUIDygC&biw=1231&bih=577#imgrc=JbQd4upFOOjr-M:

all imo/dyor

Dontcha just love your chairman's pic? He's just so...........so.............so.............COOL.

Yeah.

I think you've got a screw loose, GB.

What's your problem with what I wrote in any of those posts? My comments were put into context. If you can't understand my use of basic arithmetic it's your problem, not mine.

Dana Petroleum (Tom Cross's creation) started as a tiddler and sold for about £1.8bn a few years later. SQZ had a share price of 3p about 4 years ago (m/c £8m); today it's 120p (m/c £320). Other juniors have been acquired by bigger players at very significant values, so why not JOG in a few years' time if things go its way? Anyone with intelligence knows there are no certainties in the oil and gas exploration business. imv JOG has a better chance than most of succeeding. It's just my view - no-one is forcing anyone to share it. At least I understand what constitutes value, even if that value doesn't end up being realised in full - or indeed at all.

People don't buy shares in junior explorers for a safe return. They usually invest in a few and hope at least one hits big because the multiples of SP achieved on a winner pay for the losses on others and a lot more on top. The skill lies in picking the ultimate winners before others see the potential, then buckling down for the ride.

The SQZ comment was a joke - no-one's ever going to make an offer of more than 6 times the current price. There would be no need to offer anything remotely close. There are no hard and fast rules but acquiring companies rarely pay more than a 50% premium on the SP immediately before a bid.

I was being kind in describing you as thick. You're worse.

Keep wasting your time by all means - you won't prove anything except that you're a idiot.

.........."there haven't been failures along the way"..........???

......yes there have.........take XEL for instance..........

......don't forget to tell us how you get on when you call into Howard House to see the people you say are conning us.

Suggestion: wear protective clothing and a mouth-guard.

No - I've never said Schroders know what they're doing
No - I have never targeted a price, although I have on many occasions referred to potential value
No - I have never said JOG is a 'no-brainer'.............

..........you are, though.

"Drivel" is the word you're looking for, GB. "Dribble" is what footballers do and probably you when you're eating.

Just kidding.

The point about illiteracy is that it generally stems from a failure of the relevant individual to have paid attention when lessons were being given about how to express oneself properly in one's native language. The evidence is that such individuals also fail to perform in subjects across the board when compared with others. Some leave school only with the ability to become a bouncer. Basically, they're regarded as thick - and rightly so in most normal people's view.

I'm not saying you're thick, GB - just strongly implying it. My age and experience enables me to do so accurately.

Even I, as a relatively well-educated type can't successfully predict in which cases an exploratory drill will be successful. I'm still learning different things - every day. It doesn't make AB and RL bad people for not having x-ray vision either. I can assure you they'd both have given up their salaries for a couple of years or more and had a different drill result. No-one is conning anyone - they're giving it their best and there is no call for insulting them in the unintelligent and cowardly way you have done with monotonous regularity.

Reference me being a dick for not selling my entire holding in JOG when the price peaked at 399p, that's with hindsight. I hold shares for the longer term, based on what I judge (sometimes correctly, other times not) each company is capable of achieving. I tend not to trade because prices are generally set by short termers concentrating on making a quick buck by jumping in and out on short term price movement, such individuals having no interest in or understanding of longer term fundamental potential or actual value. You seem to be saying that what I would have made had I sold at 399p was enough? How can you judge what is enough for someone else? One definition of 'enough' is 'more'. I tend to subscribe to this..

Fundamentals generally win in the end and we haven't reached the end yet so it is illogical to label me a dick for following a strategy that has served me well over a long period (there haven't been failures along the way but since adopting my strategy it has rewarded me well). People win in the end. Those with talents they apply diligently rarely fail in life.

You're likely to fail imho, GB - you're already a long way down that path. What does one aspire to after being a bouncer

dyor

........."I cannot be bothered to drive down to Brighton with my telescope to see if i can spot your orange car, id be gutted if i did and you lived other side of island"............

.......wouldn't the Cherbourg Peninsula get in the way a bit, MadCrann :-)

I have never made the comments graybird states I have. The lies continue. The tongue-in-cheek references I have occasionally made to £43 a share were to reflect the fact that any TRAP shareholder subscribing to the IPO in 2011 would require JOG's SP to reach this level in order to recover original investment cost.

We are where we are. It's oil & gas and it's unpredictable. It shows a woeful misunderstanding of the sector to blame JOG for the P2170 partnership, led by Equinor, as operator, choosing the wrong drill location. If there is any criticism to make it is that too much confidence was shown ahead of the event by JOG's people. I still put this down to genuine excitement and anticipation. Like many others I was encouraged to view the appraisal drill as no more than a penalty kick, which turned out to be a mistake. Lesson learnt in spades. No doubt others have learned something valuable too.

There's much still to look forward to in JOG as I view the situation. It might all go wrong but that's the risk one takes investing in oil & gas juniors. I still view the shares I bought at between 8p and 25p positively, as I do my investments in SQZ and CLNR, which were largely bought with the proceeds of sale of enough shares in JOG soon after the Verbier discovery to give me a free ride on the rest. I retained plenty and added recently at 66p. It has to be said that I preferred my holding when the price was what it was before the recent bad news :-)

We're all mighty impressed with your trading skills, GB. Did you say you had as many as 9,000 shares at one point? Wow. Just WOW.

Tip: take some English lessons. Ask someone from another country to help you. You could help them become a bouncer.

dyor

CLNR has already said it will look to farm down part of its 50% of the Licence to fund a drill. It wouldn't need to part with much on any reasonable cost estimates and an anticipated CoS of 38%

dyor

If anyone is suggesting I am the same poster as Tommy393 - I'm not. I don't get off on what people on an anonymous board think of me. I post views I hope are balanced, based on knowledge I gained over many years in a relevant professional context and my interpretation of information available in the public domain.

I don't think anyone cares what you think graybird - your take on just about everything would embarrass an average 6 year old. And I'd steer clear of JOG's offices if I were you after the lies you posted about what a major shareholder in JOG wrote to its clients on Twitter. That one went down like a lead balloon in Howard House.