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People who are in a frenzy looking only at price - or perhaps unable to the bigger picture here - are all giving us the benefit of their infinite wisdom, which has kept them poor so far in their lives.

Look at it this way. JOG's shares were trading at about 240p (most thought they were undervalued) when news of the failed Verbier appraisal well was announced. The top estimate being targeted in Verbier was 130MMboe of which JOG's 18% share would have been 23.4MMboe. Had the appraisal drill confirmed this top estimate, JOG's SP would probably have advanced beyond £5 a share (I was expecting £6-£8).

On Friday the OGA "gifted" JOG about 100MMboe of proven resources in Buchan and J2 - that's 4x the best possible result Verbier might have produced (from JOG's perspective). Shows the high regard JOG must be held in by the OGA who were no doubt grateful to JOG for acting so swiftly, decisively, capably and intelligently in farming out 70% of P2170 to Equinor within 12 months of picking up the basket case known as Trap Oil and then discovering oil another 12 months after that. All from a market cap of about £1m and precious little cash at the outset.

There's no doubt a shrewd reason why (effectively) Equinor have been given the option they have (my guess is that what's been awarded might have otherwise been seen to be too big for a junior like JOG. Besides, the P2170 discovery (with probably more to come) will undoubtedly be tied in with Buchan and J2 when it comes to pumping the oil (which is of top quality) so it's best to serve common interests and JOG might decide to farm down another (say) 20% to cover the undersea pipeline work. I'm only speculating - it's not the purpose of this post.

Discovered oil in the NS changes hands at somewhere in the range $7-$12pb as I understand things (anyone's welcome to challenge this but evidence please). JOG has 110MMboe of the stuff.
Use 50MMboe if you like (to allow for Equinor's option and roundings) and take the minimum of $7pb.

You still get to $350m of proven value in JOG. I make that £280m ignoring P2170, the cash and the exceptional people who run JOG and have their own money committed but ren't greedy (so far at least)

There are c21.8m shares in issue. That's near enough £13 a share.

Read the words and buy a calculator. Nothing needs to be discovered. JOG is fully underpinned and a lot more on top.

dyofr

a1m1 - I meant to add that, contrary to what you say (do as dick does, buy high and sell low!) I didn't buy particularly high - my average is just above 2p. My investment decisions are always based on what I see as fundamental value - and in the case of oil & gas co's always taking into account the considerable risks involved in the sector. Fundamentals usually win in the end but, in this case, way too much of what I saw as a fundamental undervaluation of the company has been permanently locked in by directors anxious to safeguard their own positions for the next 3 years at least.

The directors have expressed great confidence in the first drill (Selene) coming up trumps, so why not put our money where their mouths are and take the chance of a discovery in P2437 - which would have been bound to increase the SP significantly - and raise the money for the next drill at that stage. This would have limited the dilution. There has always been the on-going opportunity to make a cash input a part of any farm-in deal. The problem with the latter (judging by the virtually cashless outcome of the Shell farm-outs) is that GS appears to have learned his negotiating skills at the same school Theresa May went to.

GS certainly fooled me by intimating (more than) that the cash for CLNR's share of the two Shell drills would come from a farm-down of CLNR's remaining interest (50%) in P2437. Seems to me that was plain deceit in an effort to support the share price pending the planned 850m share dump at a big discount, to selected insiders and some new sizable holders. Not sure what line of B/S he spun the newbys but it didn't have much impact on CLNR's m/c - the cash raised was simply added in and the whole shooting match divided by 1.4bn instead of 550m. It is closer to 1.5bn (as a matter of fact) when the director's soft options are factored in.

I respect Fairdealer's views on CLNR being taken private on any material discovery/ies but see things slightly differently. MS and a small number of others acting together could probably form a blocking minority. I see MS as a greater risk. His integrity has come under scrutiny before and his presence here has always puzzled me - I had assumed he was a rich contact of Algy (LD too) on the senior charity circuit in effect doing him a favour. I'm not aware of any interest MS has previously shown in oil & gas juniors. The money's de minimis to him. But Algy's sale of his option shares (all 10m) to MS at 3p a throw changed my thinking. Now he's bought a whole lot more to take his holding to c.17%. MS and 'latter day' institutions acting in concert is imv more a more likely combination but the effect would be the same: the risk takers denied their fair rewards by greedy unprincipled types in whose company a1m1 would probably flourish.

The money doesn't matter much to me so I've kept a toe in the water for the reasons outlined in an earlier post - naturally I hope for a positive outcome.

all imo/dyor

I'm not really interested in what you think, a1m1. It's reasonably clear you don't know the first thing about long term value creation/destruction and are fixated only on short term price.

My dissatisfaction is around the fact the people Algy Cluff left in charge have behaved deplorably by seeing themselves alright, after swamping the market with more than double the existing number of shares in issue - at 10% of the value attributed to them by the Company's own NOMAD and broker (Allenbys) a month beforehand.

P2437 is described by some as an 'appraisal' drill (given gas has already been discovered) although it is an exploration drill with a CoS put at 39%. In these circumstances would it not have been preferable to raise only enough (when it must have been clear to anyone with half a brain that the share price was being played) to provide the minimum working capital needed to sustain the Company for, say, another 18 months, plus enough to pay P2437 drill costs? Not if you want to guarantee your excessive packages for 3 years

There are other licences to farm out - cash could easily feature in the farm in cost to interested parties. GS was ceo throughout the discussions with Shell - how come other oil and gas juniors manage to get free carries on drill costs, but not CLNR, when it's farming out licences to a major that knows its prospective partner has very little cash?

Why (as someone with a background in finance) did GS not take action, knowing what was likely to be happening with one or more of the licences, to move CLNR's shares out of penny traders' favourite range - a 1 for 10 consolidation would have served the purpose and benefited longer term holders. 55m shares wouldn't have caused liquidity problems; the move would have created interest and provided meaningful uplifts when positive news was announced.

Locking in so much of an under-valuation by more than doubling the number of shares in issue has severely restricted the upside potential for existing investors who saw CLNR as a long term value play. Short term price rarely interests me, but it does when the wrong value is locked in permanently by people who are not only not very good at what they do, but take steps that further disadvantage long term shareholders who paid for their shares and shown willing to accept the risks involved - when the directors have not. The issue of a further 20m share options each to the two executive directors at a soft exercise price (to add to the bucket-loads they already hold) is imv deplorable. It shows exactly where their priorities lie, which is in looking after themselves first.

I only back companies where I trust the calibre and the integrity of the people running the show. I was never confident in GS's abilities either as an accountant or as a business leader. I didn't expected Algy to remain involved to provide guidance and advice when needed. He didn't. Tough

No point saying more - we all apply different standards

dyor

a1m1 - my toys (in the form of CLNR shares - or at least the lion's share of them) were thrown out of my pram as soon as I read about the hugely value-destructive placing and realised what was going on. Seeing the directors not risking any of their own money to speak of in the placing made it obvious that options had been selected to ensure the directors didn't get diluted. Algy permanently quitting the scene after selling all his option shares at 3p was the starting point - it wouldn't surprise me if he'd sold the rest since quitting the scene.

If Swindells had been talented, he'd have made partner in one of the three accounting firms he worked for, with a spell at a minor investment house thrown in somewhere, before joining the mighty CLNR as financial controller. Very average accountants who think they can become kings of the oil & gas industry have worried me ever since I lost a packet in XEL, where Rupert Cole FCA similarly regarded himself as talented and a NS king. Inept, cowardly, deceitful and some might say dishonest would have described him a lot more accurately. The main difference seems to be that Cole didn't have nearly as many options.

As I wouldn't trust anyone with such a small lawn (artificial too) further than I could throw them - and with the share register now set up as it is - I see it as a real possibility the Company could be taken private if a lot of gas is discovered, with the share price being controlled so that shareholders who've taken all the risks are forced to accept a paltry offer. It happened to me in Parseq a few years back. An ex KPMG consultant who owned about 35% was behind that wheeze. Two or three institutional holders who might have prevented it just caved in.

Seems to me Spencer's calling the tune now - it's anyone's guess if he's connected to the other big holders, or what he's otherwise looking to achieve.

I've kept a c.2m holding for posterity and so that I can cause a fuss at general meetings if I feel like it. Otherwise I've notionally written off an investment for which I at one stage had great hopes. My conviction (which was wrong) was that someone with Algy's record and reputation wouldn't want to bow out with a whimper. Live and learn, eh?

all imo/dyor

............this morning's news that Swindells & Nunn had generously awarded themselves (sorry - been awarded) another 40m options exercisable at f*** all after swamping the market with shares at 10% of the value Allenby's (CLNR's brokers) had attributed to them a month or so before, was always a racing certainty. The "swamping" was imv to make sure the company had enough in its coffers to keep paying them their inflated packages for the next 3 years at least, whatever the result of Shell's drilling activity - always assuming there is some.

If the prospects in P2437are so good, why not raise the necessary cash piecemeal at prices that reflected better times? Answer? Because "I'm all right Jack". Some might recall that when it came to those invited to participate in the monsoon placing, the contribution of people inside CLNR was a paltry £50k between them. Next important thing on their agenda will be big salary increases and matching bonuses for being so great at what they've managed to do. Reminder: there's no gas yet - only hope.

Given CLNR's weak cash position, had Swndells's negotiating skills not been right up there with Theresa May's, a free carry on the drills would have been a fundamental to expect when agreeing the terms of the two farm-out deals with Shell. Men against boys though, I suspect - the Shell boys must have laughed themselves silly when they managed to farm in to 2 decent licences without laying out anything significant in cash and leaving themselves all kinds of 'get out' clauses along the way. Proven industry pro's against a failed accountant and his back-room mate. Guess who wins?

I could go on. I sold the bulk of my holding as soon as news was announced of the placing that instantly removed the bulk of the upside. There might well be some kind of discovery coming shareholders' way, but split 1.4bn ways it probably won't be worth a lot. The shares should have been taken out of the penny share traders' range of interest a long time back - maybe then they wouldn't have been trashed so badly for so long. But someone in CLNR on the financial side seems to be wet behind the ears because this doesn't seem to have occurred to him. As it is, the Company seems to be in a rush to catch up with UKOG, which has an admirable 6bn shares in issue - one for every other person on the planet.

The super-cynical might take a closer look at the composition of the share register now:
Spencer and Dorfman have 20% between them. Cannacord (Vancouver): 17% for "discretionary clients". James Caird (Grand Cayman) 3.37% and Lombard Odier 8.13%, also for "discretionary clients". Add in directors options and you get to 50%+ in very few hands (all unconnected of course). Work it out - it's happened before.

The link sums him up nicely I reckon: pitiful is the word that comes to mind:
https://phoenixlawns.co.uk/project/graham-swindells/

Greedy is another.
Algy had no business leaving CLNR in these hands

all imo/dyor

Hi Ajax - there seems to have been a seller on the premises since at least Monday last week, steadily unloading in round number parcels (5k, 10k, 25k, 50k & 100k). Can't be sure it's the same holder but seems likely to me. They upped the pace today - maybe they want to get out fully before Thursday's AGM, The timing of this isn't great, given the final imaged 3D data that was expected some time in June might not have been fully analysed, the OGA won't be making any announcements about the award of 31st Supplementary Round Licences for some time.

I dare say we'll get some kind of presentation at the AGM (possibly posted on the website at the same time or maybe there'll be a 7am RNS?) but whether the market will buy whatever's stated is another matter. Hard news is what's required and it's hard to see where it's likely to come from on Thursday.

It's a classic case of supply and demand setting prices, irrespective of actual or perceived underlying value. There's masses of supply with a big seller in evidence but few are willing to invest until they see more certainty.

At 55p a share, JOG is valued at £11.7m. This is about £3m less than it presently has in the bank. There was similar despondency back in late 2015 - early 2016 when the shares followed the oil price down to 8p. Some believed the eventual outcome would be positive and took the risks involved in investing more. JOG had less than £500k in the bank back then but an ambitious plan had already started to develop around P2170 (not that shareholders knew at the time - they trusted the directors to deliver based on statements made in advance of the 2015 placing).

I don't like the uncertainty any more than the next person but retain my belief that JOG's directors are in it to win - and eventually will do so. Outcomes of drilling initiatives are impossible to predict but careful advance research and understanding can reduce the risks considerably. But an element of luck is always required. Sadly the Company has so far failed to compete the acquisition of income producing assets, which is something I hope can be rectified in the short term.

I have been steadily increasing my holding of late, but this is not to say others should follow suit. We all have different approaches to risk. Experience tells me the highest rewards are to be gained by buying when others are selling. It also tells me one can lose the lot. The skill comes in backing more winners than losers - and in selling and putting your money somewhere else if you believe other companies offer better prospects of share price growth.

I'm signing off until the AGM's done. I'm now going to watch England continue to struggle to get anywhere near the score posted by the Aussies. It's currently worse than watching JOG's SP go down

GLA

dyor

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