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I suspected from Missy's post that the troll was telling more lies and I wasn't wrong.

I didn't lose anything when an appraisal well came up dry for JOG in April. JOG's price doesn't make any sense either, because the whole company is valued at about £15m when it has more than that in cash, no debt and 4.5m confirmed barrels at Verbier that will tie back easily into existing infrastructure - the NPV10 value of the resources is ~£30m There are also other assets and £30m of b/fwd tax losses that are worth £10 in cash when they get used. The price of the stock fell from 228p and it's about 72p today - I make that a decline of 68%, not 80%. He shows his ignorance by making judgments based on his own limited financial means.

I bought virtually my entire holding at prices between 8p and about 30p abd top-sliced enough when they hit nearly £4 to give me a free ride on the rest. I haven't sold any since and don't intend to. The dry appraisal well was a setback but that's all. There are plenty of other locations still to test and the likelihood is a much higher volume than the present confirmed minimum of 25MMboe will be certified.

Hope this clarifies the situation for the clowns who think short term price is the only thing to focus on because they haven't got two ha'pence to rub together and have to sell one big hope (based on thin air) to buy their next big winner that's "gonna make me rich".

I'd hate to be poor but I'd hate to be thick a lot more. Above all I'd hate to be dishonest.

If the cap fits..............

gfy

CLNR has said more than once it will look to farm down a % of P2437 to fund its share of the drill cost. There's a lot of scope with a 50% interest and only about £3-4m needed CLNR might also raise some cash on the farm out of one or more of its other licences.

Selene is prospectively a 90MMboe field (P50) with a 39% CoS. CLNR's 50% would be worth ~£300m (~50p a share) on a discovery.

Details of the P2252 Licence.

Shell wouldn't be involved if it didn't believe the licences will prove winners. The skills CLNR has demonstrated in gaining a set of UKCS licences of the calibre it has - and farming out two to Shell are a lot more than just impressive. It took determination to succeed and professional competence that would be rare in any gasco, let alone one of its size. CLNR is a well focused company which Algy felt he could safely leave in capable hands to allow him to pursue his other objectives as he approaches the twilight of his successful life to date.

Michael Spencer and Lloyd Dorfman (both of whom were no doubt well-known to Algy on the senior Charity circuit - Algy was awarded an OBE for his services to the oil & gas industry and to charity about 2 years ago) invested in what Algy must have been able to convince them was a company that offered considerable scope for capital growth. Some might say that what they invested was pocket money to them, but the one thing successful people hate is being associated with failure. So the actual sums they invested will be secondary to their main objective, which has to be to make money. They have proved they are reasonably good at this to date, with Spencer's wealth being recently recorded at £1.2bn and Dorfman's at £0.75bn. Who wouldn't want them as fellow shareholders?

People like a1m1 spend countless hours every day composing worthless posts designed to damage the value of the investments their paymasters select for damaging. They can safely be counted among life's failures. It is as plain as it could be to anyone with a modicum of intelligence and a broad understanding of how business works that the sensible and experienced people at CLNR's helm intend to go about the process of realising significant value from the UKCS licences the Company holds. How long it will take for real value to accrue to patient holders cannot be accurately forecast, but CLNR's "portfolio based" approach to the accumulation of licences seems likely to be highly productive for shareholders over time.

Does it matter what paid blogsite trolls lamely insist will go wrong at every stage where CLNR is concerned? Just ignore whatever the clowns have to say about things they don't understand and never will. Serious people who invest in companies like CLNR understand all the risks and fully accept them. The reason they have money to invest in the fist place is because they make more right calls than wrong ones.

Fundamentals win in the end. Patience is the key.

GLAL

dyor

LW - JOG stated on 20 May:

"Strong Cash Position: Ended 2018 with £19.8 million of which approximately £4-5 million will be utilised through H1 2019, principally to settle our share of the Verbier appraisal well costs"

Assume £15.25m of the £19.8m still remains (mid-point assumption on the ££4m-5m Verbier appraisal costs o/s) and add yesterday's £0.75m and you get to £16m. There are 21.83m shares in issue.

Cash therefore represents 73.3p of the present share price,which was a shade less than this at the close last night.

It makes no sense valuing a company like JOG on its cash balances alone - the one thing that's clear is that it won't be paid out to shareholders whatever happens. The market is in effect saying it doesn't have a clue what JOG is worth. No surprise there. We know some of the people who make it up.

AB stated in the March i/v with Malcy that JOG's share (4.5MMboe) of the minimum confirmed oil at Verbier of 25MMboe is worth £30m on a NPV10 basis (ie the cash it will yield in the future to JOG, net of all related expenditure including infrastructure costs, then discounted back to today's value). Infrastructure costs would reduce on any hub development in the GBA.

It is relevant that 25MMboe is the MINIMUM confirmed volume at Verbier. It therefore contains AT LEAST 25MMboe. - not ONLY 25MMboe. Statements made since the appraisal drill have been that estimates have been revised from the upper case of 69-130MMboe towards the lower end (25-68MMboe). As usual everyone shouts 25MMboe. It might only be this volume - but seems to me it's likely to be more. It's far from over at Verbier:

"A dry well drilled to appraise Equinor’s Verbier oil discovery in the Moray Firth off Scotland lowers resource potential to the lower end of the initially estimated range, a partner reported earlier this month (OGJ Online, Oct. 9, 2017).
Jersey Oil & Gas, which holds an 18% interest in the P2170 license, said the 20/05b-14 appraisal well went to 3,784 m TD without encountering expected Upper Jurassic sands.
The initial resource estimate was 25-130 million boe of oil and gas.
Jersey said a large part of the mapped area of the Verbier discovery northwest of the appraisal well and deeper-pool potential remain untested".
https://www.ogj.com/articles/2019/04/appraisal-results-lower-verbier-potential.html

No credit is given for Cortina. Or for the further potential in the wider P2170 Licence Area likely to be revealed by the extended seismic study currently under examination.

There is also the small matter of JOG's tax losses of c.£30m, the cash value of which is £10m in anyone's book.

The Market? Seems to me "the market" is saying JOG will have to pay someone quite a lot to take its assets off its hands. Totally daft.

Risk can never be eliminated and has to be factored in. There's no upside at all, however, in JOG's present share price, which assumes only doom.

dyor

Exploration - thanks for the update.

Can you add to what I raised yesterday (see below), in particular the "discovered gas in the ground" price of $7pboe, (min 15p a share on a discovery on P2437 alone). Can we add a similar number for P2252?

I haven't put a value on CLNR's other licences.

Someone yesterday described CLNR at today's price as "the opportunity of a lifetime". There are no guarantees in this industry but who is to disagree? In this sector it's no good waiting for confirmatory news of whatever people are waiting for and then buying, in the expectation of returns in multiples of investment cost. You have to buy before the news and embrace the risk, which in this case is quantifiable. That's just as I see things anyway. News of progress on P2437 could come soon.

*********************************************************************************************************

CLNR holds 7 UKCS Licences - it expects to be awarded more in future Licensing Rounds. In particular it holds 30% of UKCS Licence P2252 and 50% of Licence P2437.

Shell has farmed into both. In regard to the latter "Shell has indicated its intention to commit to drill an exploration well on the Selene Prospect at the soonest possible opportunity. Under the Option Agreement, Shell will pay 75% of the cost of an exploration well, including testing, subject to an aggregate cap of USD$25,000,000".

" Licence P2437...... contains the 291 BCF Selene prospect (P50 Gross Prospective Resources)".

"The prospect is imaged by high quality 3D seismic data and is highly analogous with a number of nearby fields including the Shell operated Barque gas field".

"The Selene prospect is estimated to contain unaudited mean GIIP of 509 BCF (equivalent to approximately 90 mmboe) in a four-way dip closed structure in the Leman Sandstone. P50 Prospective Resources associated with the Selene Prospect are estimated at 291 BCF (or approximately 50 mmboe)".

"The Selene prospect is considered low risk with an estimated Chance of Success of 39%"

https://www.investegate.co.uk/cluff-natural-res--clnr-/rns/shell-u-k--limited-exercises-option-on-p2437/201904301008185510X/

CLNR has said it will farm down a % of P2437 to fund its 25% share of a P2437 exploration well. What % would be enough? A fair estimate might be 15% of the licence (leaving CLNR with 35% - or 17.5MMboe) which would probably produce enough to fund its share of the well and also make a contribution to working capital.

On a discovery at P50 level, CLNR's 17.5MMboe @ $7pb - rock bottom ppb for discovered gas? - CLNR's interest in Selene would be worth $122m or £94m.

15p a share on P2437 alone. CoS 39%.

Exploration - you know a lot more than I do about everything (except what experienced accountants are supposed to know that others might not) - can you comment on the $7pb I use above (ppboe - discovered gas in the ground)? Can you put forward some similarly constructed numbers for P2252?

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