Member Info for dickupham

https://www.malcysblog.com/2019/02/the-bucket-list-update/

"With Faroe leaving it will be replaced by Serica which I consider to be better value than most of its peers and having met with Mitch Flegg last week I am sure that there is plenty of upside for such a well financed and strong UK company".

Extracts:

"Cluff retains the option to farm down its 30% interest (in P2252) to offset exposure to drilling costs".................................

"(Cluff has) 1974 km2 (gross) under licence & 3rd largest position in SNS Carboniferous fairway".........

Seems to give clarity on plans to fund the drills. Shorter term cash ok - plus decent chance of $600k coming in from Shell (can it afford it??) if it takes up the P2437 option.

This isn't looking good, is it, aim1 & Jizz..........oh dear..........

Good spot, philpb

dyor

"Cluff retains the option to farm down its 30%
interest to offset exposure to drilling costs

........see earlier post

.........make that 5.............

desperate stuff............

..sorry - 4 filtered messages.

I think it tells you what's going on..............

hey, foxes - I see 3 filtered messages followed my 6-8p target one. I was being conservative too.

Guess someone didn't like it.

I meant to ask you, who are these Shell people? Do they know what they're doing?

:-)

............next 6 months - lots of news still to come. Would value CLNR at £33m-£44m. Allenby says £86m as we stand.

Upside case: Shell drills P2252 & P2437 and meets estimates: c.75MMboe net 2P to CLNR
Farm-outs of other licences
Regains P2248 in 32nd Round
More licences next round.

Valuing certified 2P of 75MMboe @ $8pb would give CLNR a value of $600m (£450m) ignoring other assets. Assume shares in issue double to raise cash (unlikely to be this dilutive) would give a value of c.40p a share.

If the doom-mongers want to repeatedly concentrate on the (vastly over-exaggerated) downside, then it's fair enough to calmly consider the potential 2 to 3 year upside - assuming a bigger player doesn't come calling in the meantime with its cheque-book open ..............

The present price is a farce

dyor

...........do you have to practise being as thick as you come across, scooby?

I always DMOR, SensibleGuy - possibly more than some others.

Refining estimates at Verbier is only the starting point. I'm hoping more licences and more farm-outs (or prior partnerships with bigger players) will follow, plus whatever else the directors decide will add value and provide more balance in the future.

If (and I say 'if') the Verbier appraisal confirms oil volume towards the top end of estimates the value that would imply might well be £10 a share. Whether this would be reflected in a share price that was subject to the vagaries of a hoard of demented day traders who jump on and off the bandwagon without knowing anything other than the price at the time they did it, is another matter entirely. Safest to be in for the long ride imv.

I'm staying put until my jet gets delivered. £40 would easily suffice but I'd need a couple of pilots - and petrol and parking probably aren't cheap. Make it £43.

Might take a few years. Full value usually emerges on a takeover.

wdik? As long as it gets to at least £39.75 a share whilst I can still walk, talk and am not in nappies and I'll be happy

I'm not giving you any more oxygen. Read the broker's note re the downgrade - it is to reflect what is now known but was previously estimated, inc 2248 probably being relinquished. A broker that heads its update: "An Outstanding Achievement" is hardly likely to be downgrading its overall assessment of the company it's covering.

You're a weasel, aim1. Hope you get what you deserve for deceiving people in an effort either to make you feel better about selling or (more likely) trying to do your bit to drive the price down to a level you think it's good to jump back in again. You don't know the first thing about valuing companies - or much else about anything except price, because that's what day traders like you are interested in - everything is short term. It won't take years for CLNR to do whatever it is going to do because the age of the person behind it doesn't allow for it to take years.

Value will out - it is simply a question of when.

dyor

Simple question as you're an experienced holder who made a tidy profit jumping off on the recent spike and then warning everyone they've been told:

Q What do you think CLNR is worth (assume P2248 is relinquished) if someone comes knocking and asks the directors to recommend a sale?

Allenby Capital says £86m. aim1 says maybe £5m. Please don't take too long responding as it's exciting. At 1.95p a share that puts you in aim1's camp - so that would make two of you at £5m and Allenby Capital the odd man out.

Someone should protect them by telling them they've got it wrong.

"Be under no illusion, "Dick", that CLNR will most probably relinquish Licence P2248"...........when have I ever said it wouldn't?

I thought you'd moved to pastures new, Jizz? Or are you just helping protect us too?

Signing up with Shell would have been best avoided - we all know that now. They're a bad company to be involved with as they don't know what they're doing.

You and aim1 do, however - and you're protecting us.

Phew

......"do you bench press ?like your name ?"............

..........GB - I don't mean to butt in, but I do.

Not like my name, however - I find it easier using my arms.

Just saying..........

..............."At this rate we could be up 50% from our lows of £1.5 before results come out"...............

...........shpunken - we already are (225p). Not sure it will stick, however. The Company needs some new names on the register - LTHs buying in for bigger rewards later who aren't interested in jumping in and out to make a few quid. An even smaller free float would be ideal, then just sit tight for a sale in a few year's time at £1bn.

My glass is 3/4 full. Might tip a bit out later.

dyor

"You have effectively been schooled by A1M1investor"..................

........really? We'll see.

Now we know aim1 is in cloud cuckoo land.

He takes the opportunity to 'big up' the forthcoming relinquishment of Licence P2248 (we know it's coming - Exploration has explained). Note that aim1 doesn't mention that the CoS of the prospective resources in P2248 turning into discoveries are significantly less than apply in P2252.

aim1 then stuns us with this description of the rest of CLNR: "It's effectively just a load of licenses until drilling and testing takes place which may or may not prove this to have any commercial value at all and that is going to years down the line".........

.........what is (or was) P2248 then if not just another licence which may or may not have proved to have any commercial value at all - and it has (or had) an overall CoS way below that ascribed to P2252. 70% of the latter has been farmed out to Shell, but is worth next to nothing because "the terms are bad". I'm surprised it isn't a minus figure :-)

So, using the same information, we have conflicting views on how much CLNR is worth:

1. A well-known City Broker (which has valued a few companies in its time and probably has professionally qualified individuals assigned to the task) - Allenby Capital - says CLNR is worth £86m

2. aim1 says it's worth £5m.

aim1 doesn't say what he does (or did) for a living that qualifies him to value companies. Don't call us, Walt.

The word: "discredited" doesn't do it justice.

Re his latest, he says he's just realised CLNR has only retained 30% of P2252, but forgets to say that's easily the best they could have hoped for with P2248. How odd.

By way of comparison, Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) held only the one licence of any merit in 2016 (still does). 70% of Licence P2170 (two main fields - prospective P50 reserves c.200MMboe) was farmed out to Statoil (now called Equinor) with JOG retaining 18% and a partner, CIECO, retaining 12%. JOG was carried on the first exploration well to a max 18% of $25m (£3.5m) with a small up-front payment to JOG.

JOG's shares advanced as the farm out news sunk in and a couple of months later were trading at a level that valued the co at £10m+. An exploration well was drilled in late 2017 and oil was discovered in Verbier (est 25 - 130MMboe). An appraisal well is due to be drilled next month. JOG has a present market cap of about £52m which many believe is too low.. Time will tell. I bought most of my JOG between 8p and 25p when risk was at the top end.

CLNR has 7 licences exc P2248. JOG has one..

I don't think aim1 should be investing (if that is the right word) in junior explorers. He doesn't seem to understand risk and how it's dealt with. He says: "my valuation (is) £5m on loss of p2248 until drilling shows that any of the licences are economically viable"

I have news for you, aim1 - you don't make money when the gas has been discovered.

Utterly naive as well as factually and in every other way disproven.

Suggestion: use the filter

dyor

Simple question, aim1: how much is CLNR worth today in your estimation. I mean as an entity, not a short term trading opportunity on its shares. You have disputed Allenby's valuation so give us yours.

PP80 - no offence intended - I just get a bit frustrated at times.

It is reasonably clear to me that Michael Spencer and Algy Cluff had reached some kind of personal agreement as to what would happen with Algy's option shares when a 'milestone' agreement was reached - which it was when the farm-out with Shell that everyone except aim1 regarded as more than just positive.

If you think it through, why wouldn't he have been happy to pay 3.5p, assuming he saw CLNR as being worth more than £19.5m in the medium term at least. The Company's brokers, Allenby Capital, don't put their name to anything and despite aim1's false reservations because they don't tick all the useless FCA's boxes - so what? - they valued it at about £86m.

Had Michael Spencer gone into the market and tried to buy 10m+ shares at 3.5por less he'd have had no chance -MMs would have been sitting on demand which at very minimum would have matched supply at higher prices if there was/is a big seller causing an overhang. It is entirely possible imv that the MMs have been trading the shares for their own account, given the very poor quality of the trader base in CLNR's shares. It would be illegal to do so but when has this ever bothered the barrow boys who work for investment banks on the trading side?

What complicates everything is the disparity between short term price and long term value. Short term price reflects current circumstances and prices are (or would be if MMs were honest) the simple result of supply and demand. If a big seller has placed a limit order, MMs will work their books to fill it and never miss a trick to line their own pockets by however much they can get away with. They're supposed to make a fair market in the shares they deal in - you can judge if they do or not. I know what I think.

Longer term, fundamentals always win in the end, the ultimate one being how much a company is worth to a bigger company when the directors give up because the odds stacked against them are too great. My assessment is that Allenby's valuation isn't too far off the mark and in any event there's nothing better to go on. Allenby's say !5.7p a share. I have a few million reasons for saying I'd take 10p, maybe even a bit less as I'm not greedy.

What Michael Spencer was found innocent of 9 years ago is of absolutely no consequence to CLNR now or at any time. Wha he's put into CLNR is less than peanuts to him. He has no history of being interested in oil & gas so my guess is he helped out an old pal when money was needed in a recent placing. Of course he wants his money to work for him - everyone does. No point speculating - he owns what he does and I'm glad he does, Dorfman too.

dyor

Actually - MS probably paid 3.5p because he's stupid