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Why would now be a good time for a placing? Makes no sense to me with the SP where it is. That's not to say it won't happen because we're not privy to the facts and can only hypothesise on why the SP is where it is and what is most likely to happen.

Seems more likely to me the SP is the result of a big overhang that still hasn't cleared. To raise anything like enough in a placing to enable CLNR to meet its share of well costs (not expected to be incurred until 2021 at the earliest) at the current price or less, the 'placing' (which would also be expected to provide funds for everyday running costs until the well result/s were known) would involve doubling the shares currently in issue. That won't happen.

Algy's 79, has probably had enough and sees CLNR for what it is - a company with a farm out of 70% of P2252, an extremely promising licence (CLNR retaining a 30% WI) signed, subject only to regulatory clearance, with Shell, one of the world's biggest and most successful companies,. And with Shell showing enough interest in another of CLNR's licences, P2437, to have signed an option agreement giving it time to run the slide rule over it properly. On top of that, there are a further 5 valuable licences, ignoring P2248 which will almost certainly be relinquished with the aim of bidding for it in a later licensing round (when CLNR must stand a decent chance of recovering it having done all the work it has, perhaps in partnership with a bigger player with the funds available to get it drilled quickly.

One of CLNR's biggest problems? Its share register is full of day traders who are looking for a fast buck in an industry that demands patience and understanding. "The herd" causes huge price volatility. And CLNR struggles to make the progress it should because it has never been properly funded. One can't be certain why it's like this, but two years barking up the wrong tree and wasting all that effort and money on coal gas probably played a big part.

The fundamental (fully risked) value of the Company has been estimated by Allenby Capital (which understands these things) at 15.8p a share, after factoring in directors' options. There are always times when a company's SP is at odds with the fundamentals. You don't have to be Einstein to work out why - particularly in a situation such as the one CLNR finds itself in at present.

Fundamentals win in the end. There's still risk, but it's a lot less than it was a week ago, even if the SP says something different.

"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient" (WB)

Talking of which, I wish they'd get a move on and sell the bloody company to someone with some money. I'll take 12p.

GLAL
dyor

StuBhoy - apologies if my ribbing of Jezz offended you. He is a nasty piece of work who is determined to tell everyone how clever he is but is economical with the truth and seems determined to persuade others to do the wrong thing and sell at a time logic would suggest they should be buying. That's as I see it anyway.

I have tried for some time to promote reasoned discussion on here about CLNR's situation and had hoped it would be obvious from my posts that I have relevant experience of the subjects I have given my views on. I don't intend to prove what I did but it is relevant. It would certainly be clear to most people of average intelligence that I wouldn't have gained the knowledge I have as a school teacher - or indeed as a mole catcher, or a shelf-stacker at Morrisons ffs - did people really take this seriously?

I don't post on LSE's boards for self-promotional reasons - I have no desire or need to do so. I have plenty of time to do with as I please and I don't waste much of it. When it comes to contributing to this forum, I rarely post the first thing that comes into my mind when addressing any particular subject. I think about what I am going to write first, research any parts I am not certain of and then (usually) check what I have written before pressing the 'post' button. I found, to my surprise, soon after I started posting (on Interactive Investor, which I much preferred, many years ago - now worthless after an act of 'hari-kari) that my knowledge of my investments improved significantly just by doing this.

I should just ignore people whose motives are dishonorable, but some less experienced investors/traders can be influenced by false people. My intent was simply to show JtF as a joke (I'm being kind). Telling everyone how he'd been trapped in a dog of a share and what a relief he'd sold at 5p because nothing will change, when his shares had cost him nothing as a result of previous gains and Shell have just emerged on the scene was imo low behaviour.

Maybe I shouldn't have said what I did for a living. In the latter part of my career (in particular - one's ability to do it well increases with age and experience) I was involved in a lot of 'dispute resolution', which often involved valuing companies so that dissenting shareholders could gain fair value on one or more disposing of their holding.

I'm not bragging - just saying.

I dislike being referred to as a "pretentious jackanory merchant" and "pathetic middle aged man" and can do without the hassle. You can give occasional updates on CLNR's position and what might or might not happen, StuBuoy - no doubt they'll be extremely valuable.

Over and out

GLAL

Jez - you could have bought today 1.43 times the number of shares you sold on Friday (assuming you sold your entire holding at 5p and could have bought today at 3.5p). Did you not consider doing this? If you didn't, it seems to me you're saying you made a mistake investing in CLNR in the first place and you still don't think it's a good investment now at 3.5p.

I do - and so does Allenby Capital, who do this sort of thing for a living. I'm not saying they always get it right - no-one does - but they've got a reasonable track record and there's a fair margin for error with their conservative risked value of 15.8p per share.

All the shenanigans around the share price since Friday morning (and why it hasn't gone higher) has the hallmarks of a large overhang - ie MMs sitting on a big sell order. There have been two big placings (to raise £2.75m in total) since last April and 142m new shares were issued at 1.6p and 2.1p respectively. There will probably have been a limited number of participants contributing sums in denominations of £100k. What would be the effect of one or more of these deciding to do what you've done, Jez? All demand would have been sold into and until the seller/s had gone there would be limited scope for progress.

Exactly what's happened.

When you bought your original holding, was CLNR in a stronger position than it is today? Not many would think so. As you seem to be saying you made a mistake buying CLNR in the first place and you think it would be a mistake to buy shares even with its situation today, you seem to be talking about making money by trading the price short term? If so, you must have a very good crystal ball.

You say: "I am expecting a fair bit of equity raise as well as GS arranging some loans too".

Are you? This is interesting. Can you explain which lending institution is going to advance loans to finance exploration drilling? It's a new one on me. RBL maybe - but wildcat drilling?

Seems much more likely to me that CLNR will be taken over (maybe it would be presented as a merger?) than that it get to the stage of having to raise serious money to pay for its share of development costs post investment decision - on any well. And it won't be Shell buying 100% of the Licences - it doesn't work like that.

I'm not saying I'm right - there's no way of knowing. Just my feeling having had some experience on the subject.

I'm staying put.

dyor

Thank you for your 07.57 hrs response. Doesn't seem that unfair to me - money always does the talking - wouldn't work any other way.

Ref: "there are only 3 exploration/appraisal wells operating in the whole UKCS today", I only have 3 investments in total now (I find the markets too dishonest - I'm not even sure fundamentals win anymore). The other two are JOG and SQZ, each of which must feature in the 3 you mention. ENI is drilling Rowallan (SQZ 15%) and Equinor is currently drilling Bigfoot before the West Phoenix moves on to Pip, then Verbier (JOG 18%) to carry out an appraisal my money's on proving reserves towards the higher end of the estimated 25 -130 MMboe.

I'm in these 3 companies mostly because of who runs them - Tony Craven Walker (SQZ); Algy (CLNR) and Andrew Benitz & Ron Lansdell (JOG); imo they're as good as they come.

Given Algy's age and recent move to part-time non-exec chairman, I wouldn't be surprised to see CLNR become a take-over play - possibly sooner rather than later. This is based on the fact a CA was appointed CEO (I'm not that impressed so far); they must be fed up to the back teeth with the way the share price is constantly dicked around with, whatever the news (the price today is the same as it was on 28 Nov, when serious talks were first announced; they land Shell and it doesn't make any difference???); plus the fact resources would have to be increased significantly and probably £20m raised if both P2252 and P2437 were to go ahead. My guess is that they've got about £1.5m left in cash so where's the immediate money coming from? Another placing? Maybe that's what the SP is signaling??

Too many uncertainties. Why not realise fair value (a good result for all concerned) and leave it to a mid-cap with a complementary strategy, a full team in place and cash to spare?

Just my thoughts on the overall situation. Still looks a bit too risky and complicated to me despite the CEO's bold words. I'm AM now having a break.

Keep the posts coming in Islandgirl - don't be put off by thick bullies

dyor

Ramp - many things affect share prices, not least sentiment, which drives people to buy and sell. "Herd" behaviour comes into it - UKOG is an insane example of this; there are enough shares in circulation to give one to every person on the planet and some people actually think the price will go to £1. Sentiment affects supply and demand, which determines any company's share price so if the herd thinks a share is a good thing, the demand side is stimulated and MMs are forced to offer more to tempt existing holders to sell and the price rises. You'll probably know all this but some might not have thought it through.

What ultimately determines share price is real underlying value. Up to now CLNR has largely traded on hope and expectation. It still does, except the expectation just increased a shed-load!! This was a value-creation point because everyone learned the mighty Shell agrees CLNR has some potentially valuable assets. A platform (although not a concrete one) has been built and investors are safe to sit on it - for a while at least. The real value will flow when there's a gas discovery and extent of the value will be determined by the volume of gas.

Early (relatively high) prices were largely based on sentiment - hopes and expectations relating to the future. There were then a number of disappointments (not many could be blamed on CLNR - the duplicitous Scottish Fish Woman for instance) but sentiment was affected as the hopes faded. It shouldn't be forgotten that cash has been hand to mouth throughout and there have been a number of placings, so there are many more shares in issue (538m + 56m directors' options). It is market cap that's the relevant denominator.

How does one value the present "hope" (that Shell will go on to sign a farm-out agreement on P2437 and will make a discovery in the areas covered by the licences? I've had a go (based on how a couple of other small caps (which have been through he same sort of exercise) have been valued by the market. I get to a fair bit more than £21m - more like double. Were a drill on P2252 to make a discovery of - say - 50MMboe, you're talking a much bigger value again - but it's straying too far into the realms of the unknown because to find the cash for well costs (and for running the show, which would increase its overheads as it recruits more people) cash would have to be raised and this would temper share price increases.

I'm guessing but I get a fair value now of more like £30-£40m (5p to 7p a share) and at least double this if there's a discovery. But we're talking 2020/21 which won't suit everyone, so many will sell and restrict price increases. It's all hypothesis. There's untapped potential in the other licences and the value of the goodwill in CLNR's people for being able to strike what everyone agrees is a great deal is worth its weight although, this is seldom recognised.

Rugby now..........

apologies for any typos - I haven't checked

dyor

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