London South East | The UK's favourite investor portal.

I could probably make a sensible estimate of the numbers you've asked for, GB, but what would be the point? You wouldn't know what to do with it. My bet is that you want to use it to throw some more insults at the board for spending money you don't think was necessary because there hasn't been much substantive news to announce for some time.

This of course doesn't mean there hasn't been significant progress. It would be reasonably clear to someone with a normal- sized brain that there has been - it's just that it hasn't been announced because it's all connected with the upcoming Verbier appraisal and seismic mapping of an extended part of the wider P2170 licence area.

Sorry if the above goes over your head, GB. If I were you I'd stick to protecting people who think they need protecting and leave those who at least have some idea of the basics to comment on how decently-run companies like JOG go about their business in what is a complex field and in which progress is measured in years, not minutes.

dyor

"Prospective Resources
Prospective Resources are those quantities of petroleum** which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations".........

** by inference 'petroleum' includes 'gas'

https://www.spe.org/industry/petroleum-resources-classification-system-definitions.php

You'd have to check the history of each prospect in the areas covered by CLNR's licences to establish how the estimates came about I don't have a background in the industry (mine's in finance) but guess it's a mixture of 2D & 3D seismic data, past drills on (some of) the licences, evidence of gas/oil in nearby fields, etc.

Standards are applied that are aimed at achieving a level of consistency across the industry.

I don't know if you'll find the linked article below helpful. The general order as I understand it is that a particular play moves from being a lead, to a prospect then (hopefully) a discovery. A few discoveries by CLNR's partners, when they emerge, wouldn't do us any harm. That said, it isn't only discoveries that can add value. Having a clear strategy and executing it effectively can lead to big rewards. Serica Energy (SQZ) had a market cap of about £8m in 2015 whilst today, without having raised additional funds, it sits at £366m (this follows a series of a number of inspired and smartly executed deals). JOG was valued by the market in Jan 2016 at about £650k; today it is £44m and imv still has a long way to go (as does SQZ, so most seem to believe and I don't disagree).

Whilst success with the drill tip is a must for explorers, it is people who create the opportunities to enjoy the success. Algy Cluff is an icon of the industry, as is SQZ's Tony Craven Walker. Andrew Benitz of JOG belongs to the next generation but is extremely talented and hard-working. He has alongside him a very experienced and capable fellow director who has oil flowing through his veins. All we need now is oil running through Verbier, into Cortina and beyond and I'll die happy.

We should know more about Graham Swindells' capabilities by next Friday. I'm hopeful but not over-confident of a successful outcome. If things go in our favour, subject to legal and regulatory completion CLNR will end next week with two new partners (or maybe one for the both licences).

GL

dyor

There's a lot of info about P2248 and P2252 in various RNSs from about Dec 2016 onwards.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=3&words=clnr

The award to CLNR of 6 new licences in the 30th Round, when added to P2248 and P2252, took CLNR's total prospective resource base to 4.3 TCF; see "notes to editors" at the foot of the RNS:

https://www.investegate.co.uk/cluff-natural-res--clnr-/rns/licence-update-on-p2252---2248/201809271534122200C/

Total UK annual natural gas consumption is around 3 TCF. CLNR will of course have to farm out a big % of its interests to bigger players to get the prospects drilled and the process will take time, but my gut feel is that CLNR should be able to retain somewhere between 15-20% of the various prospects - it's only a guess - in return for free carries and cash sweeteners.

The bottom line is that it seems a bit daft to me for the whole company to have such a low value attached to it by the market - which is said always to be right. Trust me it isn't, otherwise I wouldn't have been able to pick up a whole pile of JOG at silly prices in 2015/16 and even more SQZ at about 1/6th of today's price in 2017/18. It's an ill wind and all that. Will it be three in a row and a bonus point? I'm not counting any chickens - we'll have the first clue next week in all probability. Farm out is only the first step. The big returns will come on later discoveries.

At Friday's close, CLNR was valued by the market at £14m. Sometimes it's best to ignore share prices that are slavishly talked about and followed by the "don't knows", who are after a few bob by trading short term. In overview the numbers look silly. CLNR prospectively owns enough gas to power the whole of the UK for a year and a half and the market says that's worth £14m. Good for the market. One farm-out alone and a subsequently discovery would make a mockery of that. And CLNR has 8 licences.

All the above said, there are only 2 certainties in life: death and taxes. There's always risk in O&G.

An alternative way of looking at things is that we haven't heard that the exclusive (or any other) talks have broken down - and they've had since 28 Nov....................

GLAL

dyor

Max - re "I think we can definitely get to that price again.and jog have come along way since then with funding".............

.........the purpose of the funding wasn't to get the share price back to 399p. That price (which gave JOG a market value of about £40m) was achieved on the basis the Verbier discovery (of at least 25MMboe and up to 130MMboe) made JOG worth that sort of money. In reality, it was 'worth' more, had a lot of people been able to concentrate on something other than price. Then, for some reason everyone became fixated on 25MMboe and not some bigger number.

JOG's share of Verbier's bottom estimate of 25MMboe (4.5MMboe) when added to the rest of its assets (including Cortina, which prospectively contains more oil than Verbier, Meribel, whatever may be recoverable in the rest of the area covered by Licence P2170 and the rest of JOG's assets including its people, their knowledge and their knowhow) was worth more than the £40m implied by the top SP of 399p. JOG's SP post discovery was driven by a whole set of factors that came into play when the price gained 500% (nearer 1000% for those who bought at the very bottom) in a single day, after everyone jumped on the bandwagon. Most short term speculators ignore things like 'fundamental value' (what's that?) and look only at price. Gains were sensational and the 'sell' button was quickly pressed as short-term traders then jumped off, along with some longer-term holders taking profits. The shares were quickly traded down to 250p or less.

JOG needed to raise cash (was a target acquisition planned around that time? Clearly, if so, it didn't come off). A placing (and offer) price that, with hindsight, was probably too low - £2 a share - was set, which was below what the shares were trading at by that time - the SP quickly followed. JOG couldn't risk not raising the funds because it also needed enough for its share of Verbier's appraisal costs (£11m). The money raised also provided enough for JOG's share (£6m) of an exploratory drill of Cortina, loosely timed for mid to late 2019. It was - and still is - reasonably clear to me the P2170 partners must think there's a lot more oil in Verbier than the 25MMboe that was 'seen' in the immediate vicinity of the well bore - otherwise why would things be happening so fast?

So, where does this fundamentally leave us? The present price (of twice as many shares at half the top price achieved) still gives JOG a 'value' of just over £40m. That's (imv) based on Verbier holding 25MMboe.

What happens if it's holding 130MMboe and what would this do to a SP of 200p ?

Ignoring everything else (the market does) I make it 130/25 x 200p = 1040p. Mid-case (69MMboe) gives 550p. This ignores the cash JOG will have left after the Verbier appraisal - plus the other assets listed earlier.

OK - people don't like risk and the oil might have evaporated.

dyor

.........not sure what you're trying to say, draft. I gave a number entirely plausible reasons (based on experience I gained over decades) as to why it's no surprise the proposed farm-out with an oil major (and others) is taking time to put to bed. You now respond by saying (I think) "c'mon you should know it's all a con".

I am under no illusions as to the extent of dishonesty there is in the markets, particularly on AIM. If it were possible to go back far enough on LSE's peer: 'interactive investor' you would see that in about 2011/12 I persistently flagged the fact Globo was likely to be a 'con'. I posted on the discussion forum the lies the Greek ceo had peddled to me in emails we had exchanged. On a different note, I have been working closely with the SFO and the ICAEW on a fraud I uncovered in an AIM company more than 3 years years ago - sadly both have been hopeless in that most of what I have submitted goes way above their heads and they have not made it their business to bring the perpetrators to justice in a timely way - I suspect this is endemic).

I don't happen to believe CLNR is a con, nor do I happen to believe that Messrs Cluff, Swindells (note correct spelling) and Nunn are conducting themselves and CLNR's affairs in ways that are anything other than entirely competent, honest and appropriate.

I seem to recall you saying a while back you were going to apply the filter to my posts because they are too long. What happened? You have strongly hinted you are a chartered accountant who qualified with one of the so-called Big 4 firms and now say you used to "audit the banks yourself". I'm not sure what this has to do with anything and it's certainly not something I would be inclined to boast about. The performance of the Big 4 accounting firms in regard to their audits of banks around 2006 to 2008 (and perhaps before and after) was abject. Had they all not failed to discharge their duties competently, the would have faced oblivion. To have brought them all down through legal action would have brought too much instability to an already fragile economic world so the blame was diverted elsewhere. All these firms had signed 'clean' audit reports on any number of banks which, a few months later, either had difficulty continuing to operate or went out of business altogether (eg Lehman, Bear Stearns etc).

Returning to CLNR, which bits of my post, which set set out what happens in the real world where complex corporate agreements are being negotiated, do you say are wrong, draft? Please be specific.

CLNR has pointed out there are no guarantees the present discussions will result in successful farm-outs and investors should always keep this at the forefront of their minds. The fact we haven't heard the discussions have ended, with a week to go to deadline date, seems to me to be a positive - if people are looking for things to cheer them up whilst waiting :-)

dyor

Why would anyone be surprised that discussions of the kind we know CLNR has been engaged in with an O&G major should go to the wire? A farm-out is hardly a simple transaction to complete. Discussions will have involved brinkmanship, there are any number of different issues to address and the OGA is likely to have been involved. We all know how difficult it can be to get timely information and decisions from public sector bodies; it's almost impossible to get anyone to be accountable or to recognise priorities (even if it's the OGA imposing the deadlines).

Not sure how many corporate deals you've been involved in, draft, but in the course of my career I was involved in dozens and I can't recall any that completed ahead of the deadline, with in most cases the parties and their lawyers still making last minute tweaks and arguing over tax warranties and the like well into the night. I'm not saying that is what is going to happen here, just that I'm not in the least surprised we haven't had any news yet. If we're lucky we might learn something later this week but next week is still favourite in my book.

I found I had a small amount of cash in one of my SIPPs this morning so added 35k at 2.445p a bit earlier. My reading of the situation in regard to Licence P2252 is that CLNR would not have entered into an exclusivity agreement with the unnamed major if the bones of an agreement (outline terms) were not already in place. Why else exclude all other parties from the discussions and close the data room? Pulling all the strands of a complex agreement together is never easy.

I have a few million reasons for wanting these farm-outs (with a lot more to follow) to go ahead, but fully accept there are no guarantees - oil and gas is a notoriously risky sector to be involved in. You don't get the rewards if you're not prepared to take the risks. The fact these licences look so promising and that there has been increased interest evident in the data rooms in recent months is in CLNR's favour. The fact a major has moved to an exclusivity agreement adds considerably to the prospect of a positive outcome as far as I'm concerned.

OK - I'm just a hopeless romantic who might well be a lot worse some time next week. But it won't kill me if I am and what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. There will still be 6 licences to farm out in the future (in addition to P2248 and P2252, although these would pose practical problems if they falter this time) so it won't be curtains even if the share price tanks (which it would if the news is negative).

Does anyone think Messrs Spencer & Dorfman have been recent sellers? I have yet to meet any successful person who enjoys being seen to have failed. I acknowledge this doesn't prove anything and that they might only know the same as the rest of us, but...............

GL

dyor

"NORTH SEA PLANS
The table shows operators’ resource estimates for pending North Sea wells. In the Central North Sea, three wells will target individual resources greater than 100 MMboe.

Rowallan, on Block 22/19c, is an HPHT prospect with condensate targets in the Triassic Skagerrak and Mid-Jurassic Pentland formations. Block operator Eni UK has contracted the jack up Ensco 121 to drill the well, with partner Serica Energy fully carried on all associated costs.

Pre-drill resources are about 133 MMBoe. Rowallan’s drilling was scheduled to start in December 2018.

Neptune Energy Group recently acquired Apache Corp.’s interest in the Triassic Isabella well on Block 30/12d in the Central Graben. Isabella targets an HPHT reservoir. Pre-drill estimated resources are about 143 MMboe.

UKCS License P 2170 (Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d) contains the Verbier oil discovery. Equinor is license operator with 70% interest. Jersey Oil & Gas has 18% interest and CIECO V&C (UK) Ltd. has 12% interest. Verbier appraisal drilling is planned for early 2019. Equinor’s 21/1d Cortina exploration well, on the same license as Verbier, is expected to be drilled in 2019. Jersey Oil & Gas, Equinor’s license partner, estimates Corina has resources of 124 million bbl. Corina targets an Upper Jurassic stratigraphic trap.

Southern North Sea prospects have combined potential of more than 1 tcf: the Carboniferous Aurora prospect, operated by Spirit Energy, and the Carboniferous Darach prospect and the Permian reef Ossian prospect, operated by Orange-Nassau Energy BV. Successful development would extend the plays north of Breagh gas field.

Several wells, with pre-drill estimated resources in the range of 51-100 MMboe, are testing either new or revised play concepts. These include Equinor’s Triassic 9/22a Bigfoot and Upper Jurassic 15/15 Pip prospects.

Bigfoot is on License P2314 near Mariner field. Equinor and BP Exploration Co. each hold 50% interest.

Pip is on License P2318, with Equinor and BP as equal partners. Pip is an underdeveloped area on the East Shetland platform. Equinor also plans to drill the Lifjellet exploration well in the Jaeren High area next year"...........

I'm not sure there's a hatchet to bury, noix. If your post is directed at me, I'll stop teasing the gifted GB when he stops calling me "dickuphim" and making ageist comments directed at me. Generally, it irks me that he kills useful discussion on this board with his daft and illiterate posts, many of which appear to me to be made up. As an example, it isn't possible to short JOG shares because there's no-one lending them. The spread betting firms won't open short positions for clients either - I tried it in advance of the fist drill result to hedge my position, but couldn't do it.

Changing the subject, I have now managed to establish the identity of the person who visited JOG's corporate HQ in Jersey on Friday. Turns out it was an existing holder with a sizable number of shares who visits JOG in Jersey from time to time, mainly for posterity. I'm told he didn't come away from the meeting (which mostly took place over lunch) with any information that's not available to others, but his confidence in his money being in the right place and looked after by thoroughly decent and extremely capable people (who are very ambitious for the Company's future) was renewed and refreshed.

So it wasn't an arab after all. My confidence is renewed and refreshed.

It is important to remember that AB's and RL's future also depends on JOG being successful, because they each have a considerable sum invested in JOG (paid for using their own money) going back to the pre-Trap days, when they set up JOG and got it into a position to reverse in, in 2015. Although many listed company directors talk of their interests being aligned with those of shareholders generally, very few have actually risked their own money when acquiring their holdings. This cannot be said to be the case here. And the chairman buying 10k shares on Friday was further tangible evidence of the confidence of the directors in JOG's future.

I see the West Phoenix is now east and south of the Shetlands, so it has almost reached its destination if it's heading for Bigfoot (as is stated). Bigfoot is very near Equinor's Mariner Field.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:458810/mmsi:370506000/imo:8768294/vessel:WEST_PHOENIX

dyor

Latest Share Chat

Member Info for dickupham

Followers

Following

Posts (Last 30 Days)

Posts (All Time)

Last Post

Member Since

Share Chat Post Distribution (Last 30 Days)

Activity Log (Last 30 Days)