Member Info for dickupham

Share prices are the simple result of supply and demand. Market makers (as the name suggests) simply 'make a market' for (or in) the shares. What share trade for isn't necessarily (ever in JOG's case?) what they're really 'worth'

If there are more people who want to buy than sell, the price goes up. If there are more who want to sell than buy, the price goes down. It isn't rocket science.

The bottom value of any share is what the shares would fetch in a liquidation. The top value (in an oil & gas company) is what they would change hands at if prospects turned into discoveries that had a sales value. Presently JOG owns discovered reserves of at least 4.5MMboe in Verbier alone. You can value these at whatever you like (somewhere around $10pb might be thought by some to be reasonable)? but someone would have to buy out JOG's 18% interest to own them and this would involve getting the partners' consent (which would be unlikely to be unreasonably withheld) and whoever was buying would have to pay JOG for the prospects as well as the discovered oil.

Nothing will happen before P2170 is fully appraised, whenever that might be. That's where the upside lies. $10pb for the oil discovered so far would give an underpinning value (Verbier so far) of about $45m - or £35m - which equates to about 160p a share. You then have to add the cash in JOG's bank: ie whatever is left after spending more on appraisal and an estimated £6m on drilling Cortina (JOG's share) - say £5m - or 23p per share.

Add up the above and you get an underpinned value of 183p a share against a trade price today of 150p.

As they say: "go figure"

dyor

............"just want the Brexit stuff finally sorted, which it will be end of Q1"............

.......crikey, you're an optimist, Loz :-)

There's been a fair amount of activity around the West Phoenix over the past few days (tugs and supply vessels coming and going etc). Am I right in thinking the rig arrived at Ragnfried on 3 Oct? If so, that would be 78 days ago. Wasn't the drill (in the event of a discovery) expected to last 81 days? Equinor hasn't said anything about progress - guess it's too small to worry about and they don't think we deserve to know. I hate being treated as if I don't matter.

Anyway, when WP's work is finished in Norwegian waters, unless Equinor decides otherwise for reasons it decides not to explain (or indeed decides it will explain) it's then due to drill Pip & Bigfoot on the UKCS (in whichever order). Both are shallow-water exploration drills so shouldn't take that long. Then it's Verbier - or at least it should be.

Assuming the WP's time at Ragnfrid Nord is now all but complete, late Q1 seems plausible for the Verbier appraisal to be done. Not sure how long this will take or when Equinor will decide to release the results of the appraisal and the wider 3D seismic assessment of the area covered by P2170. Wake me up in early 2020. That's how it feels anyway.

For whatever reason (I doubt it's down to JOG which has to defer to the operator) communication has been hopeless ever since last March. I'm off and running if it looks as if JOG intends to take P2170 all the way to first oil because being tied to the boot-laces of someone like Equinor (however technically impressive it might be) holds no attractions whatsoever for me. Equinor has already shown in spades that it doesn't care what happens to JOG when it changes its plans (with no explanations of the underlying reasons for the changes). Seems entirely possible to me that 2025 or 2030 might become better target dates if conditions and circumstances in the industry warrant a re-ordering of Equinor's priorities. Sod anyone else.

Sadly, JOG seems to have inadvertently become something in the nature of a 'one-trick pony' with shackles on. Some ponies do admittedly manage to throw off shackles and grow healthily to maturity.

I definitely wouldn't be hanging around if Verbier was in Shetland.

GL

dyor

Exploration - I wasn't suggesting the PRC seeks to exert control or that in any way their influence (more than 25% but less than 50%) is negative - I posted what I did to show the kind of financial muscle Neptune has behind it.

Wasn't Laidlaw chosen to head the Carlyle $5bn fund looking for a home in bombed-out UK O&G cos when the oil price slid down then fell off the cliff between late 2014 and early 2016? The oil price was given more than a helping hand by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan (who control the two main indices: ICE & NYMEX - GS was screaming: "this is going to $10 and pdq" at the top of its voice after its traders had no doubt already opened as many short positions as they possibly could and put all their favourite clients into as well). They (and a number of other investment banks) are imo criminally dishonest as a matter of course - all that ever happens is that they get fined billions, the regulators trouser the money and the whole stinking game resumes as if nothing has happened. I won't even talk about hedge funds - how many operators and manager were there in the Times 1000??

I digress. Did I mention I don't have much respect for investment banks - and one or two in particular? Ormost hedge funds (not all are without principles). The UK Government loves them all - they turn pensioners savings and investors' money they think is safe in tax wraps into cash for the Treasury. It's called stock lending.

Make what you can from badly misunderstood stocks with big potential, pray things go your way, then get out and put the money where criminals can't steal it off you, would be my advice. UK markets are the wild west.

jmofwiw - dyor

Neptune appears to be controlled by The State Council Of The People's Republic Of China and is therefore probably not struggling for money...............

Haven't worked out how the group fits together yet - might do so if it becomes more relevant.

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10647707/persons-with-significant-control

Thanks, Exploration - you're a mine of valuable information. Spirit has been my personal favourite since the announcement was made although I don't know any more than others.

I assume that, like me, you see very significant potential in these licences - and to CLNR's ascribed market value in general, particularly when adding the considerable potential in the recently awarded 6 new licences. The whole thing could result in CLNR idc becoming a significant player on the UKCS - and perhaps a target for one of the bigger players looking to build its future reserves

Given all this potential, the present share price (giving the whole operation a value of £11m) looks badly skewed to me - the risk/reward metrics looks way out of line, although there are never any certainties and the deal (or deals) might still fall down. The longer discussions go on, the better the chances they won't, as far as I'm concerned.

It's possible to understand why CLNR might be so sparsely valued. There was a false start with coal gas that changed Algy's plans entirely and set him on the back foot (from which I hasten to add there has imv been a full recovery). It is a positive that no reliance has to be placed on the Scottish fish woman. Then, when interests in licences were acquired, one or two weren't as anticipated and this caused disappointment. Then there was too much anticipation (and too many assumptions were made) about early success in farming out the licences awarded in the 28th Round, possibly fueled by bullish statements made by the Company when more caution might have been urged. As far as the market is concerned, I sense the perception that the boy might have cried 'wolf' too often. This is slightly unfair imv because one could hardly say CLNR has been UKOG or Sound-esque in its pronouncements. It's all water under the bridge now - we are where we are.

I like where we are because it has allowed me to build a sizeable holding at relatively modest cost. Then again I like risk when I can understand what it is and I have learned to become philosophical about losses. I recognise the possibility of these but there's a backstop in the licences as I see things, even if the price were to get hammered in the interim.

Others are welcome to their views - I don't say mine are right

GLAL

dyor

I doubt we'll hear anything this side of the NY. A lot of people switch off over the (so-called) festive period and the impact of news would be lost. As the parties have until end of Feb to tidy up the legals and get all the consents in place - and they must surely have shaken hands on the broad outline of a deal (otherwise why go exclusive?) I'm hoping we'll hear sometime in Jan - preferably well before 31st

jmo - dyor

I'm not interested in entering into any form of discussion with you, graybird. Your posts speak for themselves.

..........seems to be telling us that the 4.5mMMboe of discovered oil in Verbier is worth £10m ($12.7m). I make that $2.82pb.

The value it says the following are worth?

Cortina? Nothing
Meribel? Nothing
The remainder of P2170? Nothing
The cumulative knowledge and understanding of the oil & gas industry the directors have gained over decades, so enabling them to build a platform from which JOG might potentially grow a value measured in the hundreds of millions? Nothing
More specifically, the directors' and employees' knowledge of the UKCS and the opportunities it offers for acquiring producing assets when it makes sense to do so? Nothing

The only conclusion one can draw is that the market thinks JOG is wasting its remaining cash on developing its asset base, which would mean Equinor doesn't know what it's doing either. And that tiny Japanese outfit (CIECO) is clueless too.

I simply can't believe the directors are still drawing salaries for all this. If you're reading this, please stop immediately. The rest of us have got Christmas to think of and it looks as if mine is going to spent in and around the local food bank, which is a six mile round trip on my battery assisted bike. AND it's likely to be pi**ing down with rain and blowing a gale the whole bloody time.

It's alright for some...............

dyofr

........the bigger problem is that IQE reports its returns in "adjusted EBITDA" when the rest of the world would prefer to know how much they're making in net earnings that turn into cash . The answer is: not enough imv to justify a market cap of £500m, even at today's supposed bargain basement price of 64p a share.

Assume a p/e of 20 might be reasonable, then check if net earnings (post tax) hit £25m (check how much 'purchased intangibles' - ie R&D spend capitalised - amounts to as well) . Don't be fooled by adjusted EBITDA - every so often a whole chunk of intangibles gets written off - and they're added back to earnings too.

Dr Nelson has done very well out of IQE so far - he's made multi-millions from sales of nil or low-cost options whilst shareholders have had to rely on capital gains made from trading on the various spikes over the years. 20 years in and still no dividend? I know, it's all about growth and tomorrow. The problem seems to be that IQE is dependent on a very limited number of big customers on which it relies a lot more for its growth than they rely on IQE. Big players like Apple don't like big profits being made out of them by suppliers further down the food chain - that's not how it works.

I'm not short of the stock - just someone who was fooled by the B/S for a while. I'm pleased I got out because it taught me a lesson - don't invest in companies that talk a great game but don't deliver much except to the talkers and friends.
The money I freed up has done much better elsewhere and I'm a lot happier with the better homes I chose for it.

The fact the directors (Dr Nelson was the frontman and most of the shares were his) got involved in selling their IQE shares when they claimed to be buying (a la Rob Terry) - with the same organisation too ("Indianapolis-based pioneer in stock loans: Equities First Holdings") - hardly inspires confidence. Nothing seems to faze T Rowe Associates however (what exactly is their involvement as they appear to be ready lenders). The tricky dealings were all set out in RNSs from 2014 onwards but didn't quite add up.

Caution is recommended - things might not be all they seem. Not saying it won't turn out well for LTHs in the end but Dr Nelson doesn't have a very good record of "telling it as it is".

The next accounts should be interesting with a new CFO on board who isn't an ex auditor

GL

jmofwiw - dyor

Mike - I'm up to date with what's happening and the possibilities. I always keep up to date with my investments. I've been on the website before but only to access financial info and didn't pay much attention to anything else, given what's been available in the public domain via RNSs, presentations and in the 'oil press'. I first put a toe in Cluff's water in Dec 2016 and have added on many occasions since then (most recently on Friday - the last 2 trades of 25k shares - I found a small amount of cash in a SIPP and an ISA and decided it was a waste leaving it there).

My investment style is to establish a small initial position then slowly build. This always causes me increase my knowledge of whatever my investment is as time progresses, but one at all times to keep an open mind (it's not always easy). In most cases I find I don't like what I find when I start digging and I don't pursue the investment (ie I get out). Fortune has favoured me in recent times (last 3 or 4 years) because the significant holdings I now have are in JOG and SQZ, where I bought at very much lower prices than they're trading at today. I don't have as much invested in Cluff but I might have if things go as the Company plans them to. Skill and luck are always needed in equal measure.

I only hold these 3 investments now and will exit the markets permanently when they have played out. There's way too much dishonesty everywhere I look and it isn't only on AIM. My belief is that the people at the helm of the three AIM companies I have money in are from the old school: ie they're honest and competent. The companies they control also happen to have great assets - at least potentially.

Luck is always required in any investment one makes and where it's oil and gas is concerned this can be multiplied by 10 or more. I am under no illusions about the riskiness of my strategy, but we're all different and what is acceptable to one person won't be to another. I don't fear financial set-back because it won't kill me. I just know from experience that it's unrealistic to expect significant gain without taking significant risk.

Reference the website, as I stated, every company's website is its 'window to the world' and imv should be kept right up to date at all times. Have a look at JOG's and Serica's and compare theirs with CLNR's. It isn't about money - it's about understanding.

GL

dyor

Good idea, Mike. If you have a word with Graham and I mention it to Algy when I next see him at the Club it should do the trick :-)

..........not for those who are buying more, mike.

Everything's riding on the farm-out/s - the short-term price doesn't really matter. Max 6 weeks until we know who was right; the sellers or the buyers. The jury's out.

On another note, I was very surprised when I looked at CLNR's website last night (to check if anything was being said I might have missed) to find that it hasn't been updated since well before the 6 new licences were issued by the OGA in the summer and there is therefore no information about these highly promising assets.

If you're reading this, Mr Swindells I know you're busy but please get a grip. A company's website is its 'window to the world' so get someone onto it pdq.

dyor

.........."With no dividend being offered, it is probably time for the company to deliver some results".............

...........I think you're being a bit unfair, TLW. The company has delivered incredible results............to Dr Nelson, a few close associates and family.

You're next.........how long is it until the twelfth of never? :-)

..........that's assuming they know there's a deal (or deals) going on in the first place...........

I doubt very much the shares are being sold by anyone in the know (max sale less than £6k - there are 640k showing on the sell side in total vs 250k on the buy side, according to the share trades page on LSE). Why read anything into the situation except that the MMs need to keep their books more or less in balance? There's a decent chance people will be kicking themselves in two months time for not having had the courage of their convictions and loading up at what with hindsight they'll see was obvious. Or at least I hope so - my belief (on the balance of probability) is that it is (obvious).

What was that about being greedy when others are fearful etc?

My experience is that serious companies don't sign up to exclusive discussions unless they expect a deal to follow. Broad terms will already have been agreed - it tends to be the legal and regulatory side that takes the time.

jmofwiw - dyor

.....let's hope their apparent confidence spreads to a few more people, bullson. The market says JOG is worth about £14m excluding cash. JOG is spending £11m of the cash finding out if it's right.

............."can't have a thought process. I'm doing 1 of the largest group consolidations right now of a ftse 100 plc"..............

..........careful when you're crossing the road then, draft....... :-)

draft - not sure how the ITV link (re Buchan) is relevant to CLNR, except that the Buchan field was Algy's big discovery in his first company about 40 years ago and was a prolific producer until very recently.

I've been invested in JOG (to which it could be very relevant) since the outset, so I do appreciate the link provided - I'm not being critical. I'm just a bit puzzled by your thought process.

Mike - ref CLNR's present share price, markets aren't always right. Supply and demand drives prices - nothing else. My take is that most of those who believe that what is currently going on behind the scenes is of great significance have already taken their seats at the table (as a reminder for some others: licence extensions have been granted on P2248 and P2252, a major has progressed to exclusive discussions on P2252 and (if I read it correctly) could also be the preferred bidder on P2148; efforts to monetise some of the recently-awarded licences have already started).

Supporters (or should it be 'believers') can't just carry on buying ad infinitum, not least because money to enable them to increase their holdings further doesn't grow on trees. Issues like: "portfolio balance" and risk management also come into it. We don't know who's selling but it doesn't appear to be any of the significant holders - volumes and lots are generally small. The 'sells' outnumber the 'buys' and the MMs have to balance their books, so they drop the price to encourage activity on the buy side. Maybe the sellers need the money to buy mince pies and think they can buy back in at lower prices still in January? Who knows? Its a strange world we live in sometimes.

People who score heavily in investing usually do so because they properly assess risk/reward and they make more right calls than the reverse. They act with conviction (having done their research) and they're not spooked by the behaviour of others or the risk of loss. No-one can tell what will happen in the future but 'balance of probability' sometimes gives a clue as to likely future outcome. That's if you believe what's being told to you.

So what if it hasn't been easy to organise a farm out these past 2 years? Is CLNR alone in having had difficulties? Which peer companies is it lagging?

If the current discussions don't get over the line, I'll have a few million reasons to rue the day I started buying into Algy's intended swansong - but the story still wouldn't be over - it would just be perceived to be by people who are looking for short term reward. So there is a safety net of sorts in the longer term. That's as I see it anyway.

I bet you'd get an interesting answer if you asked Algy what he thought of a market cap of less than £12m for his company, which owns the (prospective) keys to 2 years supply of UKCS-sourced natural gas for the whole country.

I make no recommendations - all I can do is record my thoughts. Others evidently feel differently. Opinions are free.

GLAL

I found this interesting............the link was provided on another board (where it isn't really relevant) but it seems to me it could be here (assuming it's true of course - can't see why it wouldn't be).

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-12-12/oil-firms-urged-to-join-forces-to-revitalise-exploration-in-north-sea/

For those unfamiliar with the area, Buchan is bang next door to JOG's property (Block 21/1d - Cortina is 2 or 3km away; Verbier (Block 20/5b) is about 10km away). Buchan was Algy Cluff's first discovery, getting on for 40 years ago and was a significant producer until last year when, as far as I can tell, production ceased (there's a lot of info about Buchan online - there's said to be a lot of oil still recoverable, but there seem to be technical issues - don't ask me; I've only just escaped from one of those boats towing accountants out to sea).

Expect JOG to be active in the next licensing round. Could all come together nicely, given our leader's seeming aptitude in farming out promising prospects to bigger companies. Has anyone met him does anyone know? Is it true he wears yellow ties and red braces and can often be seen with a bus timetable in hand after falling off his bike?

Below is a link to JOG's latest presentation in London on 6 December:

https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/JOG-Proactive-Investors-December-2018-Read-Only.pdf

......."price is what you pay; value is what you get".............

..........they're not my words........

DYOR

"That would mean the market disbelieving that any gas has been found"..........

........it hasn't, longwait! Freudian slip - I imagine it's difficult to take your mind off Sound and gas. Commiserations (genuine - you're not the only one who was caught, but there's still a chance you'll recover your outlay if future events go your way. I had a small punt on the last drill result but didn't realise someone's mates had already been told TE9 was a duster before the market was officially told. Disgraceful. James P will do ok whatever - £1m a year for achieving exactly what? When do loyal golden ticket holders - sorry: shareholders - get the payout he got them so excited about? What do they say is a fitting way to describe loading 1000 accountants onto a boat, towing it 12 miles out to sea and scuttling it? Wasn't it "a good start"?

I'm waist-deep in CLNR (where my glass is half full - could be an "ouch" coming) and SQZ has served me and a lot of others very well, so gas is topical. But JOG has so far been about oil. Potentially a lot of it too, but we won't definitively know for a while yet. One assumes the West Phoenix will eventually arrive at Verbier - preferably before one dies. Not sure Equinor remember they've hired it. Hopefully someone remembered to put down a marker buoy so they can find where they drilled last time.

Fundamentals (good or bad) play out in the end. The rest is make-up.

dyor