Member Info for dickupham

CFO (not CFO's)

https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/directorate-changes/201811140700042565H/

AB - 19 Sept 2018: "The objective of the well programme is to determine whether the Verbier oil volumes are within the low case of 25mmboe, the mean case of 69mmboe or greater. JOG has provided internal management estimates of the value potential for the estimated recoverable oil volume ranges, together with an opinion that all outcomes are potentially commercially viable. The potential low case net present value ("NPV"), net to JOG is in excess of £30m whereas the high case is in the order of £200m (source: Management's estimates using a 10% discount rate, the October 2017 Brent strip curve and indicative JOG development and production cost estimates). Neither of these scenarios take account of the additional upside potential of the Cortina prospect, located on our licensed acreage, which is estimated to hold mean Prospective Resources of 124mmboe (source: ERC Equipoise Limited Competent Person's Report released in March 2017), or further prospectivity across the licence area"..........

https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/interim-results/201809200700133326B/

Recent analysts' report/s target much higher prices based on a mid-case Verbier appraisal early next year.

£200m into 21.8m shares = £9.17

(excluding Cortina, Meribel and whatever the extended 3D seismic study shows might be worthwhile).

Has the new top-dog CFO's joined a sinking ship one wonders?

I've bought more.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?rlz=1C2CHBD_en-GBGB765GB765&newwindow=1&source=hp&ei=haQPXPycIJqX1fAPmdm3mA8&q=catch+a+falling+star&btnK=Google+Search&oq=catch+a+falling+star&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0l10.1432.7029..12018...0.0..0.110.1619.20j1......0....1..gws-wiz.....0..0i131j0i131i10j0i3.z6nGk5q-4t0

"knife", more like. The market always knows best, apparently. We'll see. Who cares anyway?

dyor

".............then?? why they next on our hotlist?"

We don't know for certain they are but, if so, the reason might be that 191BCF of Selene's 253 BCF of P50 prospective reserves is classed as P90 - and Dewar is described as a low risk prospect in the Forties Sandstone (not sure about prospective reserves or CoS). So prima facie they're among the more attractive of the prospects included in the licences recently awarded. As a reminder: "P90 resource reflects a volume estimate that, assuming the accumulation is developed, there is a 90% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. This is therefore a low estimate of resource".

Selene has a GCoS of 38% according to the relevant RNS:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/cluff-natural-res--clnr-/rns/provisional-award-of-ukcs-licences/201805230916030103P/

Can anyone explain how prospective reserves can have a 90%+ chance of being recovered when there's only a 38% GCoS of discovering them?

I don't have any problem with what you or anyone else thinks, levi - everyone's entitled to their own opinion and you've clearly formed views based on your own experience of the Company. I've built up my holding over the past 18 months based on my views of Algy as an individual and the prospects offered originally by P2248 and P2252. My confidence increased markedly when the 6 new licences were awarded - the fact the OGA must have been happy enough with how CLNR was conducting itself was more than encouraging.

My take is simply that the outcome of the current discussions is vitally important to the medium to long-term prospects and (rightly or wrongly) I assess the chances of farming out at least one of the licences as 'high'. A failure to sign up a farm-out partner this time could mean losing about half of CLNR's prospective reserves so I'm under no illusions about the risks involved, although there'll still be 6 licences to work with, albeit probably increasingly from a diluted position and with what will feel like a sub-zero SP!!

My glass is half full. There are no certainties in life except death and taxes.

GL, whatever your strategy

dyor

Can't see why it would warrant a RNS personally, What are they likely to be saying to an unscreened audience at #PROSPEX2018 that hasn't already been said since the licences were first (provisionally) awarded?

It's only my view, but CLNR seems to be on the radar of a lot of penny traders who have no idea of what underlies the share price at any given time. They (and LTHS) have experienced a few false dawns before, because the way the Company has gone about its business since being forced to concentrate on 'conventional' NS gas has been a bit 'hand to mouth' insofar as keeping the Company going from a cash perspective has been concerned. This has caused spikes in the share price as increasing levels of anticipation (mostly about hikes in the share price) have become deflated when nothing much has happened within the anticipated timeframe.

Algy seems to have had supreme confidence he could raise funds whenever they were needed to get to the next stage, without being excessively dilutive to current holders. I believe this has been misunderstood by most. Rightly or wrongly I see Michael Spencer's and Lloyd Dorfman's entries onto the scene as positive; a vote of confidence. Clearly they must have been impressed by whatever Algy told them and I'd be surprised if they're either naive or stupid. Neither has a history of investing in oil & gas although they both have a good deal of experience in making a fortune.

In summary, Algy's spent a lifetime in the industry, has any number of contacts (some very rich) and doesn't seem to have been fazed by the prospect of issuing shares, when needed, to get to the next stage. He's hardly done it on a David Lenigas or UKOG scale. Things haven't gone entirely according to plan time-wise (do they ever in O&G?) and this hasn't helped.

According to Algy, the Scottish fish woman scuppered CLNR's original coal gas plans - he stated she'd double-crossed him (no surprise there - god, she's ugly; I think I'm going to be sick) and he sold his 4000 acre estate in Scotland in response; can't say I blame him. What's happened since then has imo been remarkable - and with a limited budget to work with on top.

That people haven't made money on the shares so far has to do with the past, not with the future. Proverbially speaking, people seem to think CLNR has cried "wolf" too many times before. Now that there's more than just one in sight, no-one seems to believe it, so they've done what they've done before and sold on the spike, causing doubt and uncertainty the MMs have built on.

Interesting comment on Thursday, levi (not being critical - just trying to put things in perspective):
"Isn't it all too familiar, a quick spike in to the 3's and then profit taking all the way back down to sub 2p? It's makes it hard to believe any deal is going to happen"...........

.......why would you think the actions of penny traders affect anything real? If MS, LD or AC start selling, run.

You know the risks - dyor

I think Peter May was one of England's better cricket captains - I wouldn't have called him a dictator.

As for Judd Trump, he's never quite made it on the snooker circuit but he hasn't done too badly, all things considered. Got knocked out in the second round of the UK championship earlier in the week, which must have been disappointing for him. Not sure which way he swings, not that it's particularly relevant these days.

I make no predictions, Exploration. I don't know enough about the industry, the specifics of the two licences or the level of interest (and therefore the extent of competition) CLNR generated.

I am reasonably confident, however, that whoever is conducting the negotiations on behalf of CLNR will have a great deal more skill in the subject than (for instance) Theresa May.

It would be encouraging to think they won't be taking this to the wire (end of Jan) and will be able to surprise us in a positive way much sooner, but I've always been a hopeless dreamer..............

Notwithstanding this, for those who might have CLNR on their shopping list but are waiting for a more favourable entry price, not sure it's wise to expect a company with CLNR's kind of potential to be valued any lower than it is today (watch it dive!!). I can recall being amused by a poster on JOG's BB (might have been ii?) when the shares were stuck in the teens, who referred to it as "a loaded catapult". Turned out he was right!

http://stormhighway.com/lightning_never_strikes_the_same_place_twice_myth.php

DYOR

Not sure there's an 'industry norm' as such, abatt.

The % split agreed is likely to depend more on the prospects the licence offers, the extent of interest generated, the cost of the drill/s, the circumstances of the existing licensee and a host of other things on top. Seems there might have been a decent level of interest generated by CLNR in both licences, so (in theory at least) CLNR should be able to negotiate something sensible. One assumes that as the interest in P2252 has been narrowed to an exclusive preferred bidder, there's a common understanding of the expected ownership split of that licence.

We'll find out soon enough (I hope)

DYOR

Before Statoil came calling, Licence P2170 was "owned" 60:40 (JOG: CIECO). Statoil took 70% leaving JOG with 18% and CIECO with 12%.

I'd be surprised if CLNR retained as much as 30% of P2248 & P2252

DYOR

Mike - I was peed off too in Jan 2016 when the market told me JOG (reversed into what was left of Trap Oil in late 2015) was only worth 8p a share, when I knew there were only 8.4m shares in issue and I had a good few of them (even after the 1 for 100 consolidation) by virtue of having "averaged down" at as low as 0.22p a share in Trap. I was 95% down on my investment when JOG came knocking. I had subscribed to the placing to raise cash for working capital, met the JOG directors and visited their pretty humble offices in Jersey (opposite the bus station - they don't waste a penny) and was mighty impressed - 9 people, all decent types, totally focused and with a mission.

When I worked out the market said the whole shooting match was worth about £700k it didn't make sense to me, so I did a silly thing and bought more. And I carried on buying up to about 35p. Wish I'd bought more. In Aug 2016 JOG announced a farm-out of their biggest licence (P2170) to Statoil (now called Equinor) and the market missed that too - the shares didn't move from 35p when the provisional agreement was signed but more than doubled 2 months later when it completed. Daft, but who cares? The shares hit £4 when oil was discovered a year later. The market now says the shares are worth less than they were before the discovery, because there's been a bit of a delay with the appraisal drill which is expected to result in a considerable reserves upgrade. That's daft too. Again, who cares?

CLNR's present situation reminds me to an extent of JOG's a couple of years ago, except that CLNR has a lot more licences and a lot more prospective reserves. I can't say it's worth less than my house because there are many more shares in issue and another 50m options on top. Beats paying the directors in cash I suppose and most are 'out of the money' which makes them more acceptable. If the directors win, so do we.

It's impossible to avoid risk in oil & gas. If people are risk averse they should avoid the sector. I don't mind taking it when I understand what it is. But I have to respect the people who are looking after my money and the potential rewards must make the risks worth taking. It's no good following a herd focused only on making a few bob by trading the shares. They have no idea about the fundamentals of the targets they alight on. They look only at price; I look only at value. They look short term; I look long.

Both short and long term holders have equal rights in the markets, which could not exist without them. The same people LTHs are cursing now for "driving down" the SP (they're not - they're just selling on sentiment or they've hit their targets) but they could be thanking them in a few months when the SP's a few times higher than it is today. Then, they'll be jumping in on sentiment and revised targets, thereby giving LTHs the opportunity to sell (should they wish to).

Patience is what's needed. And luck to go with it.

Next year, Rodney

GL

dyor

Mike - it's how you're supposed to feel.

Illegitimi non carborundum...........

"be greedy when others are fearful"...........
"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get"........
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the inpatient to the patient"

They're not my words..............

Thanks, Exploration. I found your post very informative - thank you. I assume you have a background in the industry?? My background is in finance. I'm surprised there's been no further discussion about the numbers.

As I understand it there are approximately 5,800 ccf to 1 boe. Using this conversion rate on the prospective P50 reserves in P2248, P2252 and the new licences awarded in the 30th Round (4.3 TCF in total) we get to 740MMboe (P50 case). There is a range (P90-P10) of 1.2 to 11 TCF.

It's impossible to know at this stage how much of the equity in the licences will be surrendered on farm-out - my guess would be 70%+, but it would still leave CLNR with a lot of prospective reserves - and a drilling plan in place that will hopefully result in one or more discoveries, maybe as early as next summer/autumn if all goes according to plan. The licences are in a proven basin so there's definitely a bit more than just hope, particularly following last weeks RNS about farm-out talks with a major.

Get your calculators out and do the numbers. Work on 50 cents a barrel if you like - it still makes the market's assessment of CLNR's value (< £13m) look daft.

It's still early days but what is the potential worth? Guess it all depends on your approach to risk - and your trust in Algy and his team to deliver.

dyor

Thanks for popping in and telling us baron is amazing, rocker. This is no surprise to me as I find it amazing he's telling so many people ALM is a great company. Maybe it is, but its accounts don't tend to suggest it is at present.

Regal Petroleum appears to operate exclusively in The Ukraine and there is a majority of Ukraine nationals on the board (inc the CEO). This time last year it had just managed to have a seizure order on its assets in favour of the Ukraine Tax Authorities lifted. In August a 23% shareholder company registered in Gibraltar dumped its 23% holding. It has a current market cap at today's price of around £160m.

Much depends on one's approach to risk. I'm sure the price will do well if baron says it will.

GL

I agree 100%, sasa.

I didn't mean the fundamentals aren't there already. They are - it's just that they haven't shown up yet in a form that's readily understood by most. Even the doubters should soon see that SQZ's become a cash machine............

Wasn't there an 80s (?) hit: "things can only get better"? TCW should make it the Company's anthem.

dyor

Still off-topic

Zedy - dunno where the bit about government grants came from - apologies. I got ALM mixed up with the company promoted by the strange fellow on this board yesterday - the one that's gonna put all the UK gas cos out of business by mixing hydrogen with natural gas in the NS pipe network. And when it's rolled out across the country it's curtains for the likes SQZ ...blah, blah. After reading my post, I pictured him approaching a tree outside his house and it giving him a tender hug in sympathy. The reality is he was plugging a company he thinks (or thought) is great. He chose the wrong board.

ALM doesn't get any grants that I can see, so its revenue is even less. Price doesn't always equal value though, so there might be money to be made around sentiment, but I'd keep a wary eye on things if I were you. It could work longer term but how many shares will be in issue by then and how much will the directors have paid themselves in the meantime? There's no regulation on AIM - no point in pretending otherwise. That's why so many Chinese 'scamsters' (with unquestioning UK NEDs always willing to lend their names for the right amount of money) have been allowed to part the inexperienced or naive from their money. A certain Mr Lenigas was king dog where oil and gas and lining of directors' and friends' pockets was concerned and his legacy/ies live on. Hope no-one on here is caught up in any of them. No - oil won't be extracted through a horizontal well underneath Gatwick's Runway 3..........and "Ventor" doesn't have the same ring about it as 'Dallas'.

jmofwiw dyor

http://www.cityam.com/264826/pwc-faces-guernsey-probe-over-audit-failed-claims-funder

copy and paste it into your browser if the link still doesn't come up...........

http://www.cityam.com/264826/pwc-faces-guernsey-probe-over-audit-failed-claims-funder

Some might recall a performance fee of $14.5m was paid to JCML (JIL's appointed investment manager) in 2015 - allegedly based on the increase in net assets as shown in the 2014 accounts (adjusted or otherwise there was no such increase). The manager (JCML) was controlled to the extent of 45% by Richard Fields, which trousered $5m a year for its skilful management of JIL's shareholders funds. Fields, who could count on JIL's 15% to give him full control of JCML, took most of the $5m a year. Neat. There were a host of other expenses charged to JIL by JCML over many years that can't be justified - countless millions of $.

RF got divorced for the 5th time in 2015 and a US insider noted to me he wanted $10m to settle it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3111027/Russian-former-beauty-queen-wins-3-3million-share-lawyer-ex-husband-s-6million-fortune-judge-tells-ll-cut-800-000-year-spending.html.

It didn't help his cause that a big case (8008L) had been kicked out at the highest federal level in the US in 2013 (it was the so-called LCD case - look it up). Shareholders were told otherwise and the $30m loss wasn't recognised until the $14.5m fee had been paid.

A liberal interpretation of the startlingly simple agreement relating to payment of the performance fee was required in 2014 for the payment to be made and guess what............it was flagged through, as had been the transfer of the management contract from JCML to JAML the previous year, which was 100% owned by Fields (Mrs Fields V owned 22.5% of JCML you see). Cue? Kiss goodbye to your 36% investment in JCML, which TLBQC had found warranted a payment of $4.75m of your funds to buy out RF's former partner, a certain Mr Scrantom, who would no doubt otherwise have expressed concern because he too owned 22.5% or thereabouts of JCML. Ignore TLBQC's: "buying this interest entitles us to a share of a performance fee that gonna be paid next year" - it was never due. $7m of your money written off at a stroke. Mrs Field V denied her share of the management fees. Job done. Oh what a tangled web we weave.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/juridica-inv-ltd--jil-/rns/significant-new-investment--/200811140700181581I/

It's worth working out who stood to gain from the money JIL handed over to Fields's US law firm from Nov 2008. You were providing unsecured money to RF - all a bit different to what appeared in the admission document in Dec 2007.

The Lord Brennan QC (TLBQC - chairman), Richard Batty (serial Guernsey-based NED) and Kermit Birchfield (US contact of RF) were non-execs throughout, waving everything through for more than $4m between them to the end of 2016.

Bernie Madoff eat your heart out..........

The meeting's in Guernsey on 20 Dec. Try booking a return flight. Good time to put it to bed and slip out the back door. Disgusting.

all imho - DYOR

No zedy. I bought at 14p, 18p, 22p and 26p. I don't begrudge anyone a profit - shareholders can do whatever they like as far as I'm concerned, as long as it's honest and they don't try to influence others by promoting false information.

I am relaxed about my holding in SQZ (and JOG & CLNR for that matter - recognising the different risks in both) which, barring unforeseen adverse events, imo might have a long way to go. Short term weakness in SP is of little concern to me as I'm in for the duration.

Good luck with Allied Minds - I have a feeling shareholders are going to need more than an average amount of it. wdik except that the directors look as if they'll be ok whatever. It's supposed be called aligning their interests with shareholders' but ALM's look as if they might have misheard and are (a)lining their pockets instead - using money from government grants and the proceeds of equity dilution to pay themselves royally as losses increase. I know - it's all about unlimited future potential................silly me

DYOR

Off topic so stop reading if you're going to moan.

chinch - baronday's clearly a bit strange because he sees ALM (Allied Minds) as a screaming buy. Has anyone looked at the accounts and how much the directors are taking out for burning cash like it's going out of fashion? Worse still, Neil Woodford and Invesco (his alma mater) think its a great buy too.

Takes all sorts I suppose. Woodford's done very well for himself since setting up his own show. Shame the same can't be said for the pensioners whose money he's been investing (that's a good word). His guaranteed take out of the funds he's set up is mind-boggling.

Mr Woodford apparently liked Juridica Investments so much that (when he was with Invesco) he invested more in it than any of the other sloppy fund managers who didn't do their homework and fell for the story that eventually cost the people who had entrusted them with their savings and other shareholders dear. Whilst Burford Capital made shareholders up to 20x their investment - JIL's failed even to recover the money they put into the IPO and subsequent placing (and that's after counting dividends paid to them out of non-existent profits). It's being quietly wound up at a general meeting organised to take place in Guernsey on 20th Dec - effectively the last working day before Christmas. Try getting a flight.

It deserves a book. The plot's more intricate than any John Grisham has ever written about. I might write it - haven't decided yet. Sadly, the Lord Brennan QC (JIL's chairman) doesn't like me so is unlikely to help. Can't think why.

It ain't over yet, m'lud..............

all IMO - DYOR

Very droll, Farmertally.

Judging by the incisive posts you frequently make on other boards, in which you only ever focus on price and not value, I'd stick to farming if I were you :-)