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Abbatt - the idea behind what you call my "puzzles" is to challenge the minds of readers, so that they're naturally encouraged to think of something other than the companies they've invested in after reading my nonsense. It's a philanthropic act - think of me in a pastoral context as I clearly know very little about oil or much else. The embarrassing bit is that I always have difficulty remembering what I meant by the letters about 5 minutes after writing them down - fwiw, I do know that.some would break LSE's rules about the content of messages.

I can recall what I was meant by the letters at the end of some recent posts, however, to put you out of your misery:

jmofwiw - gdoiydli
jmofwiw means "just my opinion for what it's worth" (which is usually "nothing" although at times I have been known vehemently to defend what I don't know)
gdo tells you what you might consider iydli ("if you don't like it") - eg in the case at point: "go do one"

btimamuyofm
btim means "best to ignore me" and muyofm means "make up your own mind". I have no idea why there's an f in there.

dyorasiuya

You must surely know what 'dyor means ("do your own research")?
...........asiuya is a suggestion as to what you might do with it when you've done it. In the case you're puzzled about the last word is "arse".

I'm disappointed with recent events around JOG and intend instead (for a while at least) more closely to follow the fortunes of my other two racing certainties, SQZ and CLNR, both of which provide sport of a kind. I also have other more serious matters to attend to and need to stop being distracted by things that don't really matter in the greater scheme of things.

We'll eventually be told if there's a pot of gold in P2170, or not. It's just a question of when. If there is, the skill thereafter will be in not becoming a Rockhopper - or an X****e Energy, which was always promising its lack of meaningful cash wasn't a problem. I'm still reasonably confident about the eventual outcome here because JOG has a strong team which (I believe - hope at least) has the required level of technical expertise, commercial focus and the patience and experience to deliver a good result to shareholders within a finite timescale - even if recent indications haven't been that positive for ordinary shareholders.

iotsap

I seem to be talking to the wall.

Sotb - you posted an article written on 24 Aug in which it was stated that Equinor had (presumably very recently) been issued a permit to drill a well at Ragnfrid Nord. You seem to be insisting Ragnfrid Nord has always been next on WP's schedule to be drilled (ie after the Hibiscus engagement completes - which it has done as far as we know) followed by Pipand Bigfoot (in whichever order) then Verbier, as the last of the four planned drills. What would WP have done had the permit (which related only to Ragnfrid Nord) been delayed for whatever reason?

It seems possible that the Ragnfried Nord drill has, in fact, been switched to the last of the four scheduled drills. We have only been told JOG is now the last of the UKCS drills - Ragnfried hasn't been mentioned since 1 March by JOG or Equinor - insofar as drill timing is concerned - as far as I am aware anyway. Therefore, how can anyone know if it's being drilled first or last?

If it's been switched to last of the four drills, then JOG's anticipated timing for the Verbier drill stacks up, Say, up to 3 months for Pip and Bigfoot (both exploratory drills and therefore likely to be relatively quickly completed) then onto Verbier by early Dec at the latest. That's assuming the WP sets off from Guillemot sooner rather than later.

If Ragnfrid Nord was always going to be drilled first, then Equinor owes JOG an explanation, because I don't believe it would ever have been JOG's intention that the market should be misled as to timing of the Verbier appraisal drill. JOG will surely have been told by now precisely where the WP is heading next and when - they are, after all, paying 18% of the costs incurred on the Verbier appraisal. As I commented earlier, the information as to timing is price sensitive. All listed companies are obliged to disclose price sensitive information as soon as it becomes known to them.

I am not saying what will happen and what will not. Just outlining what seems most likely to me, based on formal announcements made to date by the interested parties.

It's said patience is a virtue so I'm hoping we don't find out what's happening until at least 2020 (mid to late Q2).

dyorasiuya

Fairdealer - I'm working on the last 'official' news we had (on 24 July) which made it clear when it was likely the appraisal well would be drilled at Verbier (mid to late Q4 - one assumes based on what JOG had been most recently told by Equinor, which is the operator and ultimately make all the operational decisions; it is also the operator of Ragnfrid Nord).

Sonofthebull says delays are likely due to weather. Then he posts what was stated by Equinor on 1 Mar (JOG issued a RNS on the same date: https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/rig-contract-signed/201803011008493668G/

We all know the WP schedule set out on 1 March has changed. Playing devil's advocate, why would the timing of the Ragnfrid drill not have changed too? I have no idea if it has or not - I'm just saying it's impossible for the WP to do the NCS drill and arrive at Verbier by Q4. Equinor/JOG will have known this for a while. The event is price sensitive so JOG couldn't just sit on news of further delay.

I have no idea why no reference was made in the 1 March release to the Hibiscus (Guillemot) sidetrack drill and how long this would take, but does this really matter now? The drill is done and it's surely only a matter of days before the WP heads off to wherever it's heading next.

Sotb posts another link to an "Offshore Energy Today.com" article of 24 Aug stating that Equinor had at that time just been granted a permit to carry out a drill at Ragnfrid Nord. Would it be normal to expect a rig like WP to begin drilling within 2 or 3 weeks of the necessary consent being granted? I'm just asking the question. Assuming (which I don't, although it's possible) Ragnfrid Nord has always been next on WP's schedule, what was the WP going to do if the permit hadn't come through on time. All that planning and so much rearranging

It's all about as clear as mud, but we'll definitely know by this time next year (assuming the weather's not too bad).

The overriding point is that there's no reason to regard any of it in a particularly negative way. There might be a further delay before the results of the appraisal drill are known. So what?

imo/dyor

Can I ask what point you are trying to make, Sonofthebull?

Another supply vessel has already come and gone in the past week or so. I was simply drawing attention to the apparent presence of the two vessels I linked (whether they're supply vessels or tugs) for general interest. We know the sidetrack drill for Hibiscus has now finished, so it's only a matter of time before the West Phoenix heads off to its next destination, wherever that may be.

The latest information provided by JOG (which JOG presumably received from Equinor) was that the appraisal well at Verbier would now be drilled in mid to late Q4 and that it would be the last drill of 3 on the UKCS, the other two being at Bigfoot and Pip, which are both exploratory drills and should be completed (as I understand the situation) in about 35-40 days each. If the information with which we have been provided is correct, then it seems likely the next drill on WP's schedule will be Bigfoot or Pip, with the other one then following before the WP then heads for Verbier. Assuming 40 days for each of Bigfoot and Pip and allowing for travel between drill sites, prima facie the Verbier drill would start sometime in the first half of December (ie mid to late Q4). This assumes WP doesn't hang around too long at Guillemot having Hobnobs loaded.

Back in March it was stated that an Equinor field (Ragnfrid) on the Norwegian Continental Shelf would be drilled before the UKCS prospects. The Ragnfrid drill was estimated to take about 3 months. We haven't been told when this is now planned to happen but it clearly can't be next on WP's schedule if the rig is planning to be at Verbier in December, after having drilled exploration wells at Bigfoot and Pip on the way. Do you think it is possible the Ragnified drill has been rescheduled to start when the WP has finished its work at Verbier, or is this out of the question in your view?

You seem convinced the Ragnfrid drill is still next on WP's schedule (your post of 21 Aug: "Roy Scot::: How long is a piece of string...... February son earliest !").

Can I ask where you got the information that enabled you to reach this conclusion? It wouldn't make much difference to anything if the appraisal drill WAS in February or even later. It will definitely happen - it's just a matter of when. But we all know that markets have a habit of thinking short term and news of further delays might put off people who were thinking of jumping on for the ride, or who don't count patience as one of their attributes

As a matter of interest are you invested in JOG, Sonofthebull, or are you just a caring observer who's here to help us understand?

bullson - I don't know any more than anyone else but since Pip & Bigfoot are exploration drills (and should therefore be completed reasonably quickly and have a finite result) it might now be thought it makes sense to get these drills completed before the the appraisal well at Verbier, so allowing more time to be spent there - particularly if the drill results look positive. EG: is a sidetrack possible? I'm probably sowing my ignorance.

We don't know exactly what the recent 3D survey covered in Verbier - all we know is what the Company stated on 24 April:
"This pre-funding commitment has enabled Statoil (U.K.) Limited ("Statoil"), as operator of P.2170 and on behalf of the co-venturers, to have input into PGS' survey design and the acquisition and processing parameters in order to ensure the delivery of a high quality dataset, specifically optimised to advance the interpretation of the Verbier discovery and assessment of other exploration opportunities within the P.2170 licence area.

The anticipated timing for delivery of the final imaged data from PGS will facilitate integration with the results from the Verbier appraisal well, scheduled for drilling this summer, which, in a success case, will be an important step for strategic planning as the project progresses into a potential future development phase"
https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/3d-seismic-survey/201804240700068537L/"

It's probably already been decided where the appraisal well will be drilled but could this change if the fast-track date provided better info? Surely the more time Eqinor has to analyse and interpret the data before drilling the better? The main point to me is that it would be easier to devote the time necessary to the Verbier appraisal if the Pip and Bigfoot drills were out of the way. "Get them drilled and then concentrate on the main chance" kind of thinking

If Equinor has been 'straight' in telling JOG (which has since told us) the Verbier appraisal will be done in mid to late Q4, then it seems impossible for the 81 day Norwegian drill (Ragnfrid) to be next on WP's schedule (then followed by Pip & Bigfoot) when it finally leaves Guillemot, or wherever it's currently moored. WP is supposed to able to drill in any conditions so maybe the Ragnfrid drill has been relegated from first to last on WP's schedule. wdik?

There's no reason (that I can see anyway) to infer from anything that's been said that anyone is less enthusiastic about Verbier, or about it being a really exciting prospect. It seems to me valid to reach the conclusion Equinor is doing all it can to ensure that when the appraisal well is finally drilled, Verbier is fully and properly assessed, using all the data available at the time.

All the above is speculation - for discussion purposes only. It's oil - patience is required.

dyor

Re: "Current management estimates for gross recoverable resources attributable to JOG across all of the P.2170 Licence prospects (Verbier, Cortina and Meribel) range from 70 MMboe in the low case to 273 MMboe in the upside case, which correspond to management estimates for net asset value to JOG of approximately £83.7 million in the low case (which assumes a subsea tie-back operation) to £400.5 million in the upside case (on a standalone production platform basis)"...............

............I should have said that, based on the current number of shares in issue (c.21.8m), the low estimate of £83.7m would result in a NAV per share (P2170 only) of £3.83 - and on the upper estimate: £18.37.

Doesn't mean the SP will follow in tandem but I guess the estimates are based on NPV10 projections so there should be a fairly direct correlation.

Some might say acquiring one or more producing interests to provide cash flow and profits would change the perception of the Company significantly and who's to disagree? It is disappointing there is nothing tangible to show (so far) for all the effort the directors have made to meet or exceed the objectives they set in this direction 3 years ago when they took over. It has to be borne in mind that for the first two years the Company was operating with very little cash and it took time and focused effort to put JOG on the map. There's still time and the directors have made it clear that acquiring assets of the type indicated remains a priority. I remain hopeful.

Things could change markedly for the better here in the next 6-12 months but there are no guarantees. At least the potential upside justifies the risk to one's capital imv, but it is never wise to invest more than one can afford to lose without it significantly affecting one's lifestyle.

Someone else might have written all that cautious nonsense immediately above. Being able to afford less food and drink would be good for me so I decided ages ago to go for it, as is probably obvious to a few on here. I've always been a bit thick but I do get the occasional winner - law of averages and all that.

It might not be that easy for people waiting to take advantage of the lowest possible price to buy shares when the car starts. Who'll be selling in volume? Blink and it could have disappeared into the distance......................hope so at least

GLAH

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