Member Info for dickupham

.........sad way to spend one's holidays............

Congratulations on your considerable financial success, workover.

Q. If you've got such an important job, how come you spend so much of your time posting on here?

The reason I took you off filter is that I hardly got to read any posts because you were/are involved in every thread. Believe me when I say no-one has anything useful to learn from you. I didn't say you were naive about investing - I said you were naive about business and I stand by my comments. You take on matters is facile.

You could apply the risk factors you identify to all AIM oilcos and a lot of companies in other sectors too. We know the downsides but most are in the for the upside which I see as take out by a bigger player when P2170 is proved up. Price depends on volume of reserves. I doubt JOG will manage to pull off an acquisition which is disappointing and I might not stay 'til the end as a result.

If I do decide to sell would you advise me to put down a deposit on an investment property or pay off my mortgage?

Abatt - Statoil (as it was then called - it's now called Equinor) farmed into Licence P2170, which includes the Verbier and Cortina prospects and the Meribel lead. What is different moving forward is that whereas Equinor met the first $25m of (exploratory) drilling costs of Verbier, the same cannot be said of Cortina and any future drills. As for what the different types of drill cost, we have to be guided by the Company on this.

I don't know why Equinor changed the West Phoenix UKCS drilling schedule but I doubt very much it was for sinister reasons. Nothing except timing has changed from JOG's perspective as far as I can tell

workover - it isn't possible to have a reasonable discussion with you because you seem a bit naive about how business works, whether it's oil or some other sector. This is unsurprising because, although you evidently work in the oil industry, it isn't in an area that involves financial management. I dare say you're quite good at the more technical aspects but this doesn't enable you to comment intelligently about matters that are beyond your training and experience level. I acknowledge this should not prevent you from having opinions, but don't expect me to pay any attention to them - except to inasmuch as it enables me to tell others you're spouting nonsense.

No-one knows what kind of opportunities might arise for JOG on the acquisitions front but it's hard to argue against the fact it's a lot easier to get deals across the line in a competitive situation if there's money immediately available to close the deal. Cash is always king. The resolution that wasn't put to shareholders in the end was initially put forward by the directors to give themselves more flexibility. Certain shareholders didn't want them to have it so the resolution was withdrawn. I was personally supportive of the directors.

I said an exploratory drill of Cortina would cost £6m because that is what the Company told us it would cost. There might be further appraisal costs further down the road but by then a lot more will be known about Verbier and Cortina and other circumstances might well be different. The Company is well funded for the foreseeable future. You seem to be determined to paint a picture of a company struggling to make ends meet, which is a long way from being true.

You're determination to do the Company down continues with your sarcastic reference to Andrew Benitz as "our beloved leader". In what way do you believe he could have served shareholders better other than complete the acquisition of a producing interest - I dare say he's done his utmost but the task has been impossible.

So far.

workover - there is a gaping chasm between the directors saying they want the flexibility to raise money by issuing up to 20% of the shares currently in issue (on identical terms) and them saying "cash is an issue". As you well know (or should at any rate).

By inference, the resolution was included because the directors wanted to have the ability to raise money at short notice to complete a potential deal without the need to observe all the niceties of a more formal placing, which takes time and the outcome of which is usually uncertain, particularly if the placing isn't underwritten. Then there's all the nonsense to contend with about the price being pegged to the placing price for eons, even if it makes no sense at all.

Keeping things below radar level by approaching a few of the larger holders and asking them to increase their stakes - or perhaps inviting an institution waiting for an entry point to subscribe - made sense to me. It would seem the likes of Schroders and L&G didn't agree, however, so the resolution was dropped. I think 75% would have been required so these two shareholders effectively had a blocking vote (it's votes cast at AGMs that count)

If you were the vendor of a NS field (or an interest in one) - or maybe a small to medium sized NS-focused oil company with some interesting plays - and two parties were interested in buying what was for sale, which party would you be more inclined to sell to? The one with money in the bank or the one that said: "we'll have to raise money in a placing, but rest assured if it comes off we'll get straight back to you".

It would not surprise me at all if one or more potential deals had not already been lost (particularly before the Oct 2017 placing and offer) because of a perceived weakness in JOG's cash situation and the need to rely on RBL funding from a retail bank we're told is waiting in the wings to lend against the right opportunities. How long does it take for banks to tick all their boxes in the modern world of individuals not being empowered to make decisions and credit committees sitting on applications forever?

As I see things JOG is well funded for the foreseeable future. JOG's share of the projected Cortina drill (assuming the read across from Verbier's appraisal and the recent seismic study make it worthwhile) is put at at £6m. Add that to the £11.5m Verbier appraisal and P2170 seismic exercise, plus overheads running at less than £2m pa and planned costs are well covered by present £24m or so in the bank (might be a bit more, might be a bit less). JOG has no borrowings and no significant other debt. Potential acquisitions of producing assets can be funded by modest cash inputs, with the rest funded by RBL, Assets acquired would be expected to cover debt cost and make a positive cash contribution on top.

So the way I read it, workover, is that JOG didn't say there will be cash issues in 2019. The simple reason is there won't be. You made up a story.

.........."Cash is only an issue next year as the company has stated in recent RNS"...........

..............when did the company say cash would be an issue next year? Can you link the RNS you refer to please?

Thank you, Cebo. The information you have provided is very helpful and makes my investment decision a lot easier. Water companies are very safe investments and most pay good dividends. I think my auntie will be very pleased when I tell her what I am doing with the money. She's a worrier even though she runs a Post Office

Your reassurance that the water UKOG has had some success in finding to date is uncontaminated by oil is important. Pure water is very hard to source.

Further reassurance comes from the fact I've found out David Lenigas was behind the set-up originally and he's very trustworthy, as are Chapman & Co, who seem to audit all the companies he's ever been involved with. They're chartered accountants, which is good news because JOG has two on its board. As an aside this practically guarantees success. Yet another consideration is that directors' pay (wait for it!!!!) DECREASED to less than £1m in 2017 and (wait for it again!!!!) Mr Sanderson took quite a bit less in 2017 than the the £607k he took the year before. UKOG has to be doing very well to afford these sums. If I understood accounts I'd be able to tell if it is or not.

Given UKOG is a company so many shrewd investors put their money into, it surprises me there are only 5 billion shares in issue.

You sound as if you might have quite a lot of investment properties Cebo. Purely out of interest do you own any in Houston?

fairdealer - an elderly aunt who lives in Paignton has unexpectedly sent me a postal order and has suggested I either invest the money in shares or put it towards a deposit on an investment property. UKOG sounds a great share to buy. Do you happen to know what the Company does - someone told me they dig holes near Gatwick but I don't really know why.

Sorry if I come across as insecure.

Just been trolling through some of the filtered posts I’ve been missing. OK ……… but in my defence I’ve sort of lost the thread because there are loads more posts I don’t see since workover pitched up (and I consigned him to the bin) than I do.

Graybird mate, despite you saying a few rude things about me, I’m really happy you’ve found a buddy who understands you at last. Astrophysics can be a lonely business so it must be good to have cerebral company (so to speak).

Mate, like workover, I was going to attend the last AGM but couldn’t. Coincidentally, I too was in Houston, although only briefly. I was catching a rocket to the moon, where I was viewing another investment property (just to remind you, I’ve made very large six figure gains in recent times as a result of being a very savvy investor). The investment property on the moon was a pub but I didn’t buy it in the end because there was no atmosphere.

Anyway mate, I’m definitely going to attend next year, moon or no moon!!!!!

Turning to directors’ remuneration, I couldn’t believe Frank Moxon’s remuneration went from (wait for it!!!) £13k in 2016 to £27k in 2017. And why did the exec directors get a bonus for successfully farming out Licence P2170 to Statoil which then discovered oil in Verbier? “Greedy and avaricious” doesn’t begin to describe it. Eeuckhh – makes me shudder. One of them is now on an annual salary of nearly £100k and the other two aren’t far behind. FFS !!! !!! I’d have preferred it if they’d carried on taking pay cuts. I think they might have done had a bloke from Statoil not spotted them queuing up at a soup kitchen outside Le Geyt flats and asked if everything was ok. I’m told by my auntie who lives there they pretended they were doing some kind of seismic survey but she’s not sure he believed them, so they must have decided they should pay themselves enough to buy some food as well as pay the rent……………….

Anyway, like workover I’ll probably look to build my holding after I definitely know there’s a lot of oil in P2170 (after 2P - preferably 1P - reserves have been certified in a CPR). I might even wait until production starts, just to see how many bpd (that’s ‘barrels per day’ – I’m in the industry) are being produced. You don’t get to be a savvy investor taking risks. I can’t hope to get to 20k shares - I don’t deal big like workover but we all have to start somewhere.

Bye for now mate

https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/placing-to-raise--20m-by-accelerated-bookbuild/201710200700031694U/

........"Current management estimates for gross recoverable resources attributable to JOG across all of the P.2170 Licence prospects (Verbier, Cortina and Meribel) range from 70 MMboe in the low case to 273 MMboe in the upside case, which correspond to management estimates for net asset value to JOG of approximately £83.7 million in the low case (which assumes a subsea tie-back operation) to £400.5 million in the upside case (on a standalone production platform basis).

In addition to confirming the presence of oil in the Verbier prospect, this discovery provides valuable information to help better understand the prospectivity of the P.2170 Licence area, which includes the Cortina prospect and the Meribel lead.


The Company has also continued with its other focus of seeking to acquire value-enhancing North Sea production assets. The Directors believe that if the Company has a stronger balance sheet, it will provide vendors with greater confidence in the Company's ability to execute acquisitions. The Company will also benefit from having the necessary resources to undertake its own studies and continuing to fund the ongoing evaluation of numerous North Sea oil production and development prospects. The Company hopes to be able to transact in the near future on a strong pipeline of asset opportunities which the Company is currently evaluating.

The Directors believe therefore that it is an appropriate time to improve the financial position of the Company since the Directors expect that there will be further financing requirements for the Company relating to its working interest in the P.2170 Licence, as Statoil confirms any proposed work programme"..............

Abbatt1 - it's difficult (and a bit pointless imv) to look at the low case estimate of Veerbier alone and reach any sort of conclusion about what it would make the Company worth. I don't think anyone seriously believes there's only 25MMboe (4.5MMboe JOG).in Veebier - that's only what existed in the immediate vicinity of the well-bore when the sidetrack well was drilled last year.

Nor is it really ap[propriate to value the cash held by the Company because (up to) £11.5m will be spent on JOG's share of appraising Verbier and another £6m or so has been earmarked for JOG's share of drilling Cortina, assuming the read across from the Verbier appraisal makes it worth doing according to Equinor.

JOG's management has had a good first three years in that JOG owns some oilin the ground that might turn out to be a big play, but the real test is how they do from now on. At present JOG is entirely reliant on one licence (P2170) which is controlled by someone else (Equinor). Equinor presently seems keen to proceed to production asap but this alone begs a big question of JOG - eg how is it going to raise the money for its share of the infrastructure costs?

I would feel more content about my holding if JOG's management was able to make one or two acquisitions of producing interests of the kind identified at the outset but suitable assets appear to have been elusive so far. I have not given up hope they will be able to achieve their objective but the price of such assets is bound to have increased so nothing is certain. JOG seems to have a talent in farming out assets (based on what was achieved with the P2170 licence) so maybe it could join forces with a smaller player that was awarded licences in the last Round? I'm just speculating.

The primary objective is to get Verbier's reserves - however large these turn out to be - proved up and move on from there. I'm certain the sole focus of the directors is on adding value for shareholders and there is more than one way it seems to me they can do this. Whichever way they chose - and circumstances allow - is ok by me as they know what they are doing and I trust them (two of them anyway).

You could do worse than read what was written about the Company when the placing was done last October, Abbat1:
I'll put the link and the text of the key section in a following post

GLALTH - dyor

.............for the sake of others I've now applied the filter - you can converse with GrayBird in the bin. You might fall in love :-)

No, workover - I was responding to Popeye, referring to myself. Hyperbole probably best describes it.

It would have been reasonably obvious to a person of average intelligence I'd have thought.

Not you though..............

.........."The company that ................wrote off the only good assets that it had and handed them over to Leni???"...........

..........which assets would those be, workover?

As ever your facts are wrong.

You have no idea what investments I hold or what my position is in any of them. Who would ever claim to have got every investment decision right?

I see you aspire to owning 20k JOG shares..............

Thanks for keeping us amused.............you're a hoot

...........It seems to me, however, that whatever has caused it is UNlikely to have negative connotations for JOG or its partners.....

......big freudian slip................

Unlikey..............wdik? We're doomed (according to some - are they really invested??)

contd..........

P2170 is in an historically productive part of the NS and is surrounded by some prolific producers (Buchan and Twedsmuir South for a start) so there’s no reason not to be hopeful. We all know there are no guarantees in Oil and that the only compensation for the high level of risk that’s invariably involved is a potential winner returning multiples of investment cost.

I am no cheerleader - I have been caught more than once before by directors who haven't told it how it is and it has cost me. I don't see these traits in JOG's senior team, which I regard as their two key directors - I pass no comment on the rest of the board. I make the point again, the interests of these two directors are firmly aligned with those of ordinary shareholders. Their packages are realistic and their level of commitment is high. These are good signs to me.

Workover asks what ability JOG has to determine Equinor’s actions.. Equinor is the operator and as such makes all the decisions. In order to work out what might happen with the appraisal drill it is necessary to understand the facts. Re the West Phoenix rig, Equinor undertook to carry out one drill on the Norwegian Continental Shelf before carrying out three drills on the UKCS and then heading off to the Arctic on a drilling programme involving other Equinor interests unconnected to JOG. JOG also has no interest in the ‘pre-Arctic’ UKCS drills earlier referred to, other than Verbier. If I understand the situation correctly it is Equinor’s prerogative to change the order of the pre-Arctic drills, but if it wanted to defer Verbier’s appraisal (to next spring for instance) the agreement of at least one of the other partners (JOG or CIECO) would be needed.

The Guiilimot drill seems to have gone on much longer than anticipated at the outset and the West Phoenix is still moored there according to marine reports. The other two drills in the pre-Arctic programme are exploratory drills (Pip and Bigfoot) which would not be expected to take as long as an appraisal well drill with possible sidetrack. Equinor has advised JOG (and presumably CIECO) it now intends to drill the two exploratory wells before the Verbier appraisal well. The timing shift is said to be late Q3/early Q4 to mid/late Q4, which implies the exploratory drills should be relatively short exercises.

I can’t say (nor do I believe can JOG) whether this new schedule will be adhered to, nor do I know why the new order has been chosen. It seems to me, however, that whatever has caused it is likely to have negative connotations for JOG or its partners. It is known that the West Phoenix is designed for drilling in harsh climatic environments so prima facie there is no reason the mid to late Q4 timing should pose an unmanageable challenge. I suppose there might be a tsnami.

Hope the above helps some understand some of the issues better but it is just my take on things. People should make up their own minds.

I'll ignore the various takes on my 'nom de plume' - cheap and vulgar. I set up the identity originally when I was intent on winding up a few people on the discussion board of LGO (one of Lenigas's companies) where hordes of 'know nothing, understand even less' (bit like some on here) hysterical day traders were screaming that LGO was going to destroy (in court) a company I was invested in at the time (MOG - Mediterranean Oil & Gas). I told it as it was and it didn't (I attended throughout the hearing). Not having previously posted on LSE, I found I couldn't change my name later, otherwise I might have become: 'Roger Allways".

Quick question, Popeye? Who's 'Anne' ("How on earth Anne puts up with you?") You've lost me.

Response to workover. The first line of my last post was a quote from Popeye's - hence the double apostrophes at either end of the sentence. You should have paid a bit more attention during English lessons at school. Also, if you check my posts, you won't find I have been abusive. Maybe I have been a bit sarcastic at times, but its difficult not to be when someone boasting: "over the past 15 years I have made a very large 6 figure profit by investing in O&G and mining shares and know where to invest" and knows how to value an oil company's shares because he's in the industry ("The market only understands 2P reserves ! ............. you CAN NOT TAKE PROSPECTIVE RESOURCE TO THE BANK!!!! If you don’t know the difference between 2P RESERVES and PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES, I suggest you google it") before then going on to demonstrate he doesn't even know the difference between NAV and NPV (which he explains as being 5 typos??).

As for arrogance, maybe it comes across as such but I have strong opinions based on first-hand experience and careful research carried out over a long period of ownership of shares in Trap Oil, then JOG. I don't have much patience for people who come up with daft or vexatious theories which it seems to them it's a good idea to spew it out on boards like these. One or two posters on here know what went on towards the end of TRAP's life and why the renamed Company is so different. Also of my involvement along the way.

Anyway, enough of all that. The fact of the matter is that whether Verbier, Cortina (8km away) and Meribel are leads, prospects or presently booked reserves isn't really the point. JOG hasn't reached the point of having 2P reserves and no-one here is invested for the 25MMboe known to exist in the immediate vicinity of the sidetrack well-bore at Verbier. It's about how much oil lies beyond the range of the last (sidetrack) drill. Judging by the actions of one of the world's majors (Equinor - ex Statoil) and JOG's experienced team, their level of confidence "it's 'a lot" is high. I make no comment, but am hopeful they're right.

TBC

workover - re: "NAV was a typo ... i noticed it later but couldn’t be bothered responding"......

.........you made the same typo 5 times in your post.

I'm not an uptight wound up little anything - I just know what I'm talking about and am prepared to explain why, whereas you are different. I am not angry about anything, nor am I in love with any of the shares I hold. I am, however, contemptuous of anyone who pitches up on a board like this claiming expertise he doesn't possess and never will and then goes on to tell everyone what the situation is. There are various ways to deal with such individuals one of which is to show them for what they are, which in your case is utterly clueless about everything you've given advice on..

Other than as above you're probably quite a good bloke and someone probably likes you.

Have a nice day.

workover - it's NPV I'm talking about, not NAV. Any investment held for commercial return can only be worth the present value of all the cash the investment will generate over its lifetime. I assume, being in the business, that you are familiar with this DCF based method of valuation, which is widely used throughout the industry.

NAV is entirely different. Only companies like unit trusts (made up of lots of shares in different companies) and property investment companies are valued on a NAV basis. It's hardly surprising you haven't found many oil companies that are as it wouldn't make much sense unless their assets were about to be liquidated.

Thanks for the steer about not being cool because in your view I made a politically incorrect quip about medication. How do you know I wasn't stating a fact? 'Get a life' is a term that comes to mind.

If I were you I'd mug up on some of the basis before you pitch up on a board like this giving people the benefit of your highly questionable wisdom about how to value shares in a company, workover. Some people on here did it successfully for a living for decades, so you're fa*ting against thunder with your facile attempts to talk down the SP here. The fact the appraisal drill will be a bit delayed doesn't make any substantive difference to anything - the risks haven't increased or declined. It is well-known by all (or should be) that any early stage oil company is a risky proposition. The skill comes in picking the winners and JOG has every chance of doing this based on the evidence so far.

People don't generally need luck with their investments, although it of course helps. They need to understand and they need to carry out informed research and form valid opinions. Plus they need to ensure their money isn't likely to be unfairly grabbed by people commonly referred to as 'directors' of certain AIM-listed companies. I am of the firm opinion that JOG's principal directors are people of ability and integrity who understand the business they are in. They have a lot of their own money invested so their interests are aligned with those of other shareholders.

If it's not politically incorrect to say so, I'm now going to get on with the hoovering.

dyorfwiw

Thanks, workover. I've always struggled with numbers and the concept of risk/reward so your post was most helpful. I tend to rely on NPV10 numbers supported by DCF projections which I expect you will regard as a big mistake on my part. What might not be (a big mistake on my part) is factoring in the clear enthusiasm shown by one of the world's most respected oil companies (Equinor) to farm in to Licence P2170 in 2015, the speed with with the transaction was completed in what were/are difficult times for the North Sea and the industry in general, plus the resources committed to getting an exploratory drill (which was successful on the sidetrack) completed within 12 months.

I don't own any UKOG either. Not sure there will be that much enthusiasm for drilling Gatwick Airport given all the hoo-ha about Heathrow etc. The Isle of Wight could well be improved by the fracking, however, so there are swings and roundabouts.

I'm off my medications at present so you should take anything I say with a pinch of salt. I don't really see the point of someone repeatedly saying they see a company (JOG in this case) as poor value for money when looking at everything on the downside. There are surely more productive ways to spend one's time? I've decided I'm going to do some hoovering today for instance,

My personal hope/belief is that P2170 is full of oil and that Verbier is just the start. It would be beneficial for the company and give shareholders more security if JOG's board (in which I share JerseyCrew's confidence) was able to make selective acquisitions of income-producing non-operated interests of the kind identified at the outset. Sensible gearing is to be encouraged and I believe it is still the case that RBL is an option for the Company with a supportive mainstream bank waiting in the wings. Suitable opportunities seem to have eluded JOG so far but I doubt it is off the agenda.

GL