RE: Sleeping Giant9 May 2018 04:31
caesar - share price isn't always related to value, particularly in the short term. Share prices are driven by supply and demand, the role of the market makers being to set the level at which the two meet. Most short term traders are more interested in price than in what underpins it by way of what might be termed fundamentals, so it's a mug's game trying to predict what a company's share price might be in a given set of circumstances and even though I'm a mug I never try. In JOG's case a lot of holders seem to be relying on the SP eventually finding a level at which it is supported by normal investment return measurements. These haven't arrived yet but the indicators look promising.
These investors are in for the long ride and they won't be selling their shares at prices below levels they regard as fair, taking into account their assessment of future prospects. The difficulty they might have if they changed their timeframes and were tempted to 'take a few off the table' on the basis there's no such thing as a bad profit, is that they might have difficulty buying back in again at sensible prices. They'd be in danger of missing out on the bigger long term prize, so they sit tight. I see the bigger prize as takeover when reserves are proved up,, JOG owns a number of profitable producing interests and has an overflowing bank account. Some hope eh?
Because JOG's shares are tightly held (ie have the characteristics described above) what we do know is that, when good news is released, imarket makers are quickly forced to increase the share price (to satisfy demand) to levels that tempt longer term holders to sell. There are relatively few shares in issue and reletively few large holders who are likely to be tempted, so the share price tends to be squeezed higher quite quickly. I am a large holder, particularly arounf the girth area.
The answer to your question is �5.Don't ask me why - I've even started boring myself. Gawd isn't he boring Doris - yawn - is that the time; put the kettle on would you I'm just off to look for a cliff to jump off..........blah blah
I have no idea if the price will reach this level because I can't predict the workings of irrational minds, mine included. It doesn't seem a bad guess to me.
I'm looking for �43 a share in the end because that's the level Trap Oil's IPO shares were priced at in 2011. Whether adjustment should be made for placings and Trap holders only got 27% of the new JOG beats me, I'm not bloody Einstein and who's counting anyway? Just get on with it - discover and prove up oceansful of reserves and sell out to a bigger oilco - one of those that tells its investors they're going to get rich, which of course they never do because they die first.
I'm off my medication at present.
imo/wtfdikaa
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