Member Info for dickupham

.................Re: "Only explanation I can think of is they are really short on shares. But this should not be the case as Im sure they have taken a bag full from placement shareholders selling for 10% profit"............... ...........why would investors who took up the placing shares sell for a 10% profit? They're not penniless day traders.

thanks wacjac - we just have to hope the directors can take the company to where they want it to be. I believe they have the capability - everyone needs the breaks. GL

Apologies - should have made part of my last post clearer: "The trouble with companies like JOG is that the shares being traded on a daily basis are those belonging to short term traders who understand little of the overall picture and care even less. Share prices are the simple result of supply vs demand. Where demand exceeds supply, the price rises and vice versa. It isn't rocket science. Share prices have nothing to do with a company after they have been issued and admitted to trading. Thereafter they are just like any other goods that are traded - they change hands at prices buyers are prepared to pay sellers in order to gain ownership. Market Makers run the stalls they are bought and sold from".

Alibro - why not consider what JOG might be worth as an investment by using information provided by the company, not only to MG-W but to all shareholders. Jog has stated that it intends to acquire late life producing interests enabling it to achieve daily production of 10k barrels. Its aim is to be able, because of its low overheads base, to get the oil to market at around $30pb. Today's Brent Crude price is around $65pb and is generally thought to be likely to remain above $60pb for the foreseeable future. This is not a given because of the way oil futures are traded, but it's probably realistic. Allowing for well down-time in acquired interests of 10% (v conservative) 10k bpd of production would generate annual income for JOG (at $60pd) of just under $200m and at $30 extraction cost would produce annual profit of around $100m (c.�75m @ 1.35/1). In SQZ (Serica Energy) we saw recently what kind of deals are available to junior oil companies that can boast capable management with the right negotiating skills. JOG has covered a lot of ground and its management will have gained valuable experience over the past 28 months since they took the helm. They have until recently been constrained by a shortage of cash which has been managed extremely effectively and we are all beneficiaries of the incredible farm-out of Licence P2170 to Statoil. I believe there is a very good chance of JOG achieving its target daily production of 10K barrels in a timely way which, using reasonable assumptions, could easily result in annual net income of close to twice per annum what the whole company is valued at by the market today. And this is without even considering how much JOG's 18% interest in Verbier might be worth. The trouble with companies like JOG is that the shares being traded on a daily basis are those temporarily belonging to short term traders who understand little of the overall picture and care even less. They trade only on momentum provided by sentiment and newsflow. The larger holders, all of whom will have done the required level of research to support their investment won't generally move, except maybe to take advantage of opportunities to add to their existing holdings when they see the shares trading at insanely low levels, such as the one everyone seems to have been getting so excited about following the Oil Man's blog. Unless something fails badly to go according to plan, the fundamentals (which in this case include the assumption the directors will produce what they say they will) to me support a share price that's above MG-W's target by some way. Then again, I'm biased. DYOR

ferrotty - not being picky but Hargreaves Lansdown are not institutional holders; they're internet brokers who hold the declared shares as nominees for internet clients. They hold shares as my nominee, for instance. Ditto AJ Bell. Following the Oil Man's update, hopefully the train has now left the station, bound for a location that's about as high above sea level as Verbier. MG-W didn't seem to be too worried about JOG's share of the oil in Verbier or JOG's future prospects, but confirmation of the significance of the Verbier find and news of the addition of a producing interest - maybe more than one - should put the shares on a different level. Decisions about further Verbier appraisal and exploratory drilling of Cortina can be made later. 114p of today's share price is backed by cash in the bank so not much value is being placed by the market on Licence P2170. My personal view is that this will be shown to have been a serious mistake and that investors will have missed a remarkable opportunity. At �2 a share, JOG has a market value of less than �44m. It seems to be consistently forgotten there are fewer than 22m shares in issue and they're tightly held, making for a highly geared share price when sentiment is evident. When it runs, it should just keep running..................... ........hope so anyway. IMO/DYOR

He's being conservative, tejero :-) From 12 mins 40secs in the video.......... Good spot - thanks for posting the link

apologies - i failed to finish an important sentence: ........."JOG's oil and other assets (particularly the intangible value of all the ability and knowledge its people have gained that's focused on taking JOG to its target status as a small to mid cap with a value in the hundreds of millions) is valued by the market at about �17m". So, JOG says its oil is worth �83.7m minimum and short term traders say less than �17m. We'll eventually find out who's right I suppose.............

................arrrgh.it said I had 26 characters left. It lied. 2) "we've agreed to buy for buttons a company with promising licences we can sex up and farm out a la P2170, plus we've done a deal with a major that's not a million miles away from the one done recently by SQZ with BP. Then watch the sparks fly.............

Sorry Cebo - the background is important but providing it (again) used up too much space - and time I had other things to do. I'll now finish what I was going to say. If I'd told everyone since 2015 that JOG wasn't an explorer I'd be looking to sell my 18% of P2170 asap and leave it to others to take it to production. Many long term investors will have relied on JOG's 'production only' strategy when investing significant sums in JOG. Some of these (me, for instance) will have lost a lot on TRAP - on paper at least - and maybe other explorers in the past, which came up with dry holes when hopes had been so high. Besides, how can JOG function properly (or at all) if it is tied to Statoil's boot laces for at least the next 5 years, always dependent on Statoil's priorities and obliged to find 18% of whatever spend is needed to take the prospects in P2170 forward, whenever Statoil decides it wants to (or not) ? Why did JOG decide to do its own data analysis following the successful sidetrack drill? Did it want better estimates of Verbier oil and Cortina's prospects in a faster timescale, maybe to show potential acquirers of JOG's 18% interest? The first well was a no-brainer - JOG was fully carried (and more) by Statoil & CIECO for its share of the cost - but those arrangements no longer apply and JOG is on the ticket for the full 18% of spend from now on. My take is it had to have the money in the bank so it was clear it could pay its share of the Verbier appraisal well and the Cortina exploratory drill. It's negotiating position without this would have been lousy. In the RNS explaining the recent placing, JOG stated that the estimated max value of the oil in Verbier, Cortina and Meribel was �408m and the min �83.7m. Add �25m in cash to the latter and divide the sum by 22m shares and you get to �5 per share. Some might call it 'asset backing'. Cash alone is worth �1.14 per share. JOG's oil and its other assets (particularly the intangible value of all the ability and knowledge its people have that's ocused on taking JOG to its target status as a small to mid cap with a value in the hundreds of millions. Can they achieve it? Who knows?. What I do know is that everything JOG now spends on Verbier. Cortina or Meribel counts as 'exploration'. To me anyway. Make two announcements: (1) "we've sold our 18% to Cieco (or anyone) at $6pb. Don't ask me what the right price is pb for whatever the CPR eventually says is in Verbier and might be in Cortina and Meribel. First oil from Vebier, assuming it gets that far, isn't expected before 2022 and there's nothing I can find that's similar that's changed hands recently. The directors must have got their �83.7m min from somewhere....... (2) "we've agreed to buy for buttons a company with promising licences we can sex up and farm out a la P2170, plus we've done a deal with a major that's not a million miles away from the one done recen

Good to see you back here, grewber. Transocean (NYSE:RIG) has seen an 80% decline in its SP over the last 5 years. It is still a giant (M/C $4.6bn) but is no doubt always keen to announce good news to shareholders and the market, on this occasion that Statoil has signed a $286m contract for one of its rigs (Transocean Spitzbergen). It goes without saying, although I will say it, that Statoil wouldn't agree to the release of information by a supplier that was potentially price sensitive to its own share price or that of any of its partners, without considering the position fully in advance and obtaining the consent of its partners to the release of the potentially sensitive information. There are many rigs that could be made available at relatively short notice to drill an appraisal well of the kind envisaged at Verbier, so there is no reason imv to suppose today's news is of any significance to JOG.. Do we know (if Spitzbergen is a favoured rig - it wasn't that lucky for Statoil last time, with three duds before the sidetrack well came up trumps) if it's booked out for other work for the whole of 2018? I wasn't going to raise on this forum how I see events in JOG progressing from here (in my preferred scenario) given the assurances given over a long period by JOG's directors that JOG is a production focused oilco and not an explorer, but as the conversation is drifting that way I'll put in my three ha'pence worth for discussion purposes. Licence P2170 (Verbier, Cortina and Meribel) wasn't even mentioned when JOG backed into what was left of Trap Oil in mid 2015. There was talk of Romeo and other licences, but not P2170 (later referred to as "Cortina" - but not until about 6 mths after JOG had taken over and put the co back on an even keel). I don't think anyone knew anything about P2170 because about 6 wks after it had been awarded in the 28th Licensing Round, Trap's two oil directors had effectively been kicked out by a Swedish clown whose actions as a dominant minority shareholder (all imo only of course) had taken Trap Oil to the very brink of liquidation. I won't go into what happened in the lead-up to TRAP's 2015 AGM, at the meeting itself and after as it's history now. JOG arrived (formally) on the scene two months later. I don't think JOG's directors could believe what they'd found (P2170) when they got around to examining in detail what was in TRAP's cupboard that was otherwise full of cr*p. JOG had wanted TRAP's losses and AIM listing, having already agreed in principle funding from a major bank to pursue a production led acquisition strategy, the objective being to acquire non-operated, late life producing interests in UKCS fields with good tie-back arrangements in place. Future projections were based on the long term Brent Crude price averaging $70pb, with an overheads set-up that supported a delivered oil cost of $30pb. I'll carry on later.

'Speaking of employees, how many does JOG have in Jersey / UK. Does anyone know?'................ ................nine, I believe, nttg2. And when last seen all were focused wholly on the work they were carrying out in modestly presented shared offices on the second floor of Howard House. Optimism, confidence and a sense of purpose would be the words I'd choose to describe the prevailing mood. It might be relevant to ask how many of these nine people have invested their own money in JOG. Most commentators on here have no idea of what it takes to drive through a strategy in a junior oil company that up to now has been very thin on cash, but has scaled a mountain in spite of this. Very few on here have the slightest notion of what it takes to run any company, let alone one in the complex fields of oil & gas. A mammoth effort was required, first to 'prove up' and present Licence P2170 (containing Verbier, Cortina and Meribel) to the extent required to interest what I understand were many oil companies with market caps in excess of �1bn. By all accounts the data room JOG set up was as professional and well prepared as they come. Statoil were the keenest and best placed to farm in to the licence and you know the rest. It takes time to analyse all the well data following the successful sidetrack drill. Had there been indications the discovery might not be commercial, my strong feeling is that we'd have heard by now. JOG has a number of options to consider moving forward. I'm not going to list them (as I read the situation) on here, because I don't believe it would be helpful to do so and it would largely be a waste of time anyway. I know what I think is happening and that's enough for me. I possibly have a larger holding than most on here. It took Serica Energy (a company in which I also have a significant (to me) investment, most of last year to put together the transformational production deal it did with BP that was announced a ew weeks ago. Other similar deals are probably available to do. Let the directors here get on with what they're good at. If you don't have faith in them, then go away. Why does anyone pay any attention to a bumbling illiterate who has proved he's not only as uneducated as they come, but is a liar to boot? Put him and similar types in the filter bin. No-one who hasa modicum of sense is saying JOG is a nailed on certainty - no early stage oil & gas company can be. Butit has a better chance than most others of pulling off something special. Q1 has always been earmarked as the timescale for announcements of substance. If we haven't heard anything by the end of March then we can all start to doubt management's capabilities. We haven't reached that point yet.

Apologies, nttg2 - my post was confusing. My brother in law lives in Jersey and uses RB (an office they have in Kent) as his main broker. Good decision re use of the filter.

I applied the filter a while back (after good advice from another poster - thank you; I saw sense) but note the worthless individual is still being given oxygen, on which he thrives. Remember, he declared publicly not long ago that Redmayne Bentley had allowed him to go short of JOG. My brother-in-law, an established client of RM in Jersey asked the senior person there he deals with if this was true and he was unequivocally told it was not. The RM broker asked how they would be able to do this and why they would do it anyway, before asking for further details, which were provided. The liar's alias was given and the LSE JOG discussion forum was named as the source. It is rare for an individual to be pursued by the regulatory authorities for making untrue statements publicly about a company, its directors or its advisors on a forum such as this, but it is not without precedent, particularly if the directors who are being libelled are the ones who make the complaint. It might make sense for a few on here who feel strongly about graybird's constant baseless bashing, which has again crossed the line of acceptability, to alert JOG's directors to what he is stating about them and their company and has persistently done to date. Organisations like LSE are obliged by law to provide whatever details they hold about individual posters, including an email address (which links to an IP address that is easily traceable).

apologies - forgot the link: http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/185281/jersey-oil-and-gas-soars-after-statoil-discovery-but-wh-ireland-still-sees-the-share-going-much-higher-185281.html

....from 9 October 2017 (less than 3 months ago). Although there were fewer shares in issue then, there is now £24m more in the bank and it is logical to expect news of the next phase of JOG's remarkable journey sooner rather than later. My hunch is that the news, when it comes, might contain more than most are expecting............... jmofwiw - dyor

Patience has never been my strongpoint, cyan. I am not a virtuous person it would seem. One quick look at UKOG and seeing the presence of David Lenigas there for a while as a director told me all that was necessary. Sanderson takes a very high annual remuneration out of UKOG, whilst owning a significant part of HHD, which is private. UKOG has nothing to speak of in the bank, precious few barrels of confirmed reserves, 3.7bn shares in issue and they're still issuing them like confetti to the SEDA lenders. The latter appear to be able to dump the shares whenever there's another sensational RNS telling everyone of a glittering future and what a great company UKOG is. More mugs jump in, the price spikes and so on. Today is just another example. Rinse and repeat. Your level of research of UKOG is much greater than mine. I haven't done much. I would never touch anything with which Lenigas, Ritson and a few others have been involved with a barge pole. I agree about the fracking - and probably with about 100 more problems you see with the whole set-up around the companies involved in the Weald Basin. You possibly restrict your concerns more to the technical and dimensional aspects - I look at the financial arrangements and what I see and smell is noxious. Changing the subject, Pop-eye - forgive me. You're probably a good bloke and I was grumpy. I'm not that old and certainly not senile. My 'dice theory' comments referred to a book I read when I was a young man. I say 'young man' because I was one (ie young AND a man). You had to be precise in those days - now it might be: "when I was a young gender-non-specific". We weren't allowed to wear frocks in the pub or whilst playing rugby either. The book was called "The Dice Man", by Luke Rhinehart. It tells the story of a bloke (I forget his name now) whose direction each day is decided by the roll of a dice. At the risk of boring you, I re-read the book when I was in my forties and was thinking about it one Sunday (whilst enjoying a 'hare of the dog'). I don't know if it was fate or not, but a group of young ladies whose hockey match had just been cancelled because the pitch was unfit walked into the pub. Conversation ensued and they warmed to dice theory. Anything unlawful was ruled out but otherwise it was decided the rules would strictly be followed. I can truthfully say I ended up in places I could never have imagined and met people I could never possibly have met. It was a truly memorable day (and part of the following night) - one that will never be forgotten. I never did it again. Nothing unwholesome happened but my wife wasn't best pleased. Why not give it a go? I wouldn't buy and sell shares on the back of it though. Stay put here would be my advice, not that I'm giving any. Seasons greetings to all - hope 2018 will prove fruitful. DYOR.

"Dice theory - I thought it was very 1950! The year Dick was born"............ .......wrong I'm afraid, popeye. Have you got a problem with people of a certain age? Are you suggesting there's something wrong with my brain? God help you if there is because even if it was badly damaged I'd have a lot more to offer than you'll ever manage. I didn't expect those like you to understand my reference to dice theory - we read books in those days.......... How's it going with your other winners?? You never know - you might have accidently stumbled onto a winner here. Who did you copy? :-)

With (genuine) respect for followers of charts and trend theory, I'd question whether JOG is a good candidate to practise it on presently. The recent price downtrend (exacerbated by a low placing price - I guess for safety; the price ensured the necessary cash was raised without difficulty) is more likely to have been the result of the lack of newsflow, and impatience resulting in a failure by some to understand the (potential) fundamentals that underpin JOG - some moved their funds to other winners like UKOG, VAST and FRR :-) There is still risk here until it is officially confirmed Statoil regard Verbier as 'commercial', although I would have expected to have heard by now if it wasn't. Light the blue touch paper if it is. Any news, either good or bad would blow the present price out of the water and make a mockery of chart trends (as has been the case already). Maybe I have misunerstood the use of charts, in which case I apologise. I mainly apply dice theory. jmo/dyor GL

"Well done Dicky. You’ve definitely earned your fee for today"........... ......what fee would that be, Tony? If you check (I also post on iii as eagle51) you'll see that I've been involved since halfway through Trap Oil's existence (before JOG got involved). There's some interesting history in my posts there if you're interested. I post to promote clarity, sometimes (in the past) not just on JOG sadly. I'm presently having counselling and it's working so far; the counsellor suggested I just be nice to everyone so that's what I'm being. Hope everyone's Christmas shopping is going well and that everyone's really happy. PS: btw when I predicted £43 by Christmas I didn't realise it had to be this year. Apologies.

The gobbledegook you set out seems to have come from the same source to which I posted the link in an earlier post (the Oil Capital Conference in Sept 2016). The £78m refers only to the estimated value of JOG's 18% interest in a 'proved up' Verbier of 117MMboe. This 117MMboe was subsequently increased to 162MMboe in March 2017 https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/p-2170--20-5b---21-1d---competent-person-s-report/201703270700085422A/ In addition to the £78m, JOG had other assets that took the value to the £92.6m stated in the presentation I linked. No reference of any kind was made by anyone at JOG to JOG's share price at any time. Present estimates of what Verbier is likely to hold, now that the presence of oil has been confirmed, are 25MMboe - 130MMboe. The lower figure (25MMboe) is just the oil present in the immediate vicinity of the wellbore (the way someone big on oil knowledge might describe this - with clinical precision - is: "we saw 25MMboe just in the area the drill 'poked its head' into the oil bearing sands. We couldn't look any further because the elastic the drill bit was glued to was at full stretch"). This is where the planned appraisal drill comes in. It will (hopefully) 'hit the sweet spot' and allow much more accurate estimates of reserves present to be made from a more central location. It remains to be seen whether JOG will still own its 18% of P2170 by the time this happens. You need to do your research more thoroughly, graybird - not just pick out random bits of information and present them in ways designed to damage JOG and the investments of hundreds if not thousands of people. dyor