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silverknight - I wasn't being rude. You stated that JOG's SP would never reach TRAP's IPO price. I disagreed and said why. TRAP and JOG are the same company. JOG reversed in (Aug 2015) and TRAP was renamed JOG. The original JOG became a wholly-owned subsidiary. TRAP's IPO price in 2011 was 43p (from memory - it might have been a penny or so higher but I don't think any lower). On admission it had a pile of cash and what turned out to be poor management. They signed up with CGGVeritas, which had an uncanny knack of finding dry holes; TRAP blew £60m (£50m in cash) on Reach Oil and Athena. There were others too.

£913m would be required to support a SP of £43 - which is actually a bit less than the NPV10 value Rockwell Resources has come up with in its independently prepared Oct 2019 CPR (just over £1bn). Is this unachievable? RR are experts and respected in the industry.

Working on the assumption that, when there's more certainty, value and price will be closer to a match, it all comes down to arithmetic, RR's fundamental assumptions and the market interpretation of the overall situation. God help us. I always point out that the O&G E&P sector is fraught with risk, much of it outside any company's control. The risk is usually mostly about oil discovery and Brent prices. RR uses $62.5 pb for the latter in getting to their number of >£1bn. The 'discovery' risk isn't really a factor based on what JOG presently owns. Buchan had already produced close to 150MMstb when the rig failed. As I understand it, 80MMstb were independently certified to remain as of Aug 2017, when production stopped on H&S grounds. Buchan wasn't "abandoned". Repsol and Sinopec fell out over what should happen next and went into dispute. It's still going on. The terms of the licence agreement were breached and the licence was surrendered to the OGA. After working on the potential opportunity for more than 2 years, JOG was chosen by the OGA, out of those who applied, as the company best placed to deliver MER. So at least someone (the OGA) evidently believes JOG will succeed with its ambitious but achievable plans. TSD and Robsadope (if they've heard of it) will say: "wtf are the OGA"?

I didn't say JOG's SP WILL reach £43. I set out how it might be justified. There's always risk - but it should be seen in context. There's also plenty of upside - eg more licences; one or more successful drills; Cortina and Verbier North spring to mind.

It's one patient step at a time. Lock in one or more bigger partners, underpin cash and (if more exploration drills are planned) arrange free carries. Get FDP approval, then see what happens...

In reality those who stay the course will get what's negotiated after a suitable approach. You're probably right it won't be £43 because a bidder won't offer that much and most holders will settle for less.

I'd be more annoying than one of those asian hornets with so many big ones in the bank..........even at £20 a pop. C'mon JOG.....

dyor

Why is it a shame, gell? It's one person's opinion only and this can only be based on the writer's belief that JOG's directors will be unable to achieve the farm-out (or farm-outs) they have publicly stated they believe they will be able to later this year. I disagree. There's a great deal of work being done by the talented team JOG has put together for the purpose, including advisers of international standing to ensure that, when the button is pressed, there should be considerable interest in farming-in to a project that will be the largest new development in CNS since Golden Eagle. Anyone who's interested in JOG longer term (6 months+) should study the latest material JOG has put into the public domain (less than a month ago). Specifically in relation to what I state above, see pages 2 & 5, although the whole presentation is fundamentally relevant imv. https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Oil-Capital-Presentation_120220vFinal.pdf. Don't be lazy.

JOG is doing everything as it should be done. No short cuts are being taken. That much is clear - to me at least. The directors won't like what's happened to JOG's SP, which is plain daft, but they aren't concerned with the very short term. They have enough of their own wealth tied in to JOG's longer term success - and are not exactly lavishly rewarded for their unstinting efforts on behalf of everyone - to ensure that JOG goes on to achieve the ambitious targets they have set. Less than 5 years ago, JOG had only the cash raised in the initial placing (post Trap Oil acquisition - presented as a RTO to maintain the tax losses) which amounted to c.£800k, a couple of licences no-one knew much about from Trap Oil's past (inc P2170) and £25m of tax losses.

Where is JOG now? Cash of c£10m, the tax losses intact and 142m barrels of top quality discovered oil (80m barrels flowed and only called 2C - not 2P - because of development risk) in the CNS. And the market says this is worth nothing? So cash and tax losses are worth more than JOG's market cap? Give me a break - there's stupidity and there's stupidity. This one takes the biscuit. Even if JOG weren't to attract serious farm-out interest and the directors then gave up (just not worth it - the world's too dim) and offered the lot for $1 per barrel? $142m (£110m) with 21.8m shares in issue? £5 a share to divi out? Maybe the OGA would say 'no' to the transfer but, under MER, why would it as long as a buyer was kosher?

Someone told me here last week that TRAP's IPO price (43p - or £43 post the 1 for 100 consol in 2015) will never happen. Why not? If JOG retained 40% post farm-out, with the farminee picking up most of the infrastructure spend, how much pb would 40% of 142MMstb fetch? $15pb (conservative) would produce £650m. Add the 200MMstb of prospects........ 21.8m shares in issue. Do the maths.

I'm not saying it WILL happen, just showing how it might. There seems v limited downside risk. Don't miss the bus.
dyor

Contrary opinions are welcome where some degree of research underpins those opinions. These can stimulate debate and extend and improve everyone's understanding of the subject company.

TSD makes only unqualified (always negative) forecasts about JOG's short term share price. This is about as useful as tits on a bull. So is he.

There's a share overhang which will eventually clear. The world's markets are in disarray. There's a media frenzy. Governments are over-reacting and causing widespread panic, when the situation should be put into context. For the present at least COVID-2019 is no worse than an average flu virus. Rational action should be taken to address the situation.

The vast majority of companies around the world are unlikely to suffer any more than short term profit interruption, so to wipe c.10% off the total value of all the world's listed companies is a violent over-reaction. I have no doubt at all that the usual suspects (hedge funds and investment banks) are significantly exacerbating the problems by shorting anything they're able to lay their greedy hands on. Where do they find the shares to sell short? They're yours and other investors' - lent by pension funds and internet brokers in return for fees the lenders keep for themselves. Your (and investors' in other companies) shares are being used as weapons against you. And the Government approves of this because it makes money for the treasury (I can explain more if anyone's interested). Immoral? Fraudulent more like.

A further problem is the present unpopularity of the carbon energy sector. Again, the situation is misunderstood by most. The world will continue to consume as much oil as can be lifted from the ground until the world's resources in this type of energy run out (currently forecast to be in about 2050). More than 6000 products in use every day around the globe depend on oil for their production. 'Cosmetics' is a $300bn a year global market. It's just one example. Try telling the average woman (even the Swedish freak) they have to give up wearing make-up and see how far you get.

Annual demand for oil comfortably exceeds supply each year and (as above) this is expected to continue for decades to come. Alternative energy sources HAVE to be found - it's not a voluntary exercise. Whatever politicians might tell us about saving the planet, the real issue is finding new energy sources to replace the carbon kind when it runs out. Most of the world's biggest oil fields are past peak production and the race is on to replace these reserves. There is an increasingly limited number of areas to explore for this purpose. The OGA's MER strategy reflects all this and JOG is v well-placed to gain from it.

Many factors can affect a company's short term SP. But it only has one set of (sometimes variable) fundamentals. 21.8m shares are in issue - tightly held too. When good news comes, the lid will blow. Patience........

imo/dyor
gfytsd

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