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..........anyone would think I'm a GOM..........morning to you too, PC01 :-)

Did someone not say we're likely to get an update in Q4 on the consortium's (ie Equinor's) current plans for drilling P2170?? My personal view is that further Verbier appraisal/Cortina exploration is unlikely before 2021, but wdik?

My guess is that there's a great deal of analysis activity going on behind the scenes. JOG will be acutely aware the market is looking for more certainty over funding of Buchan/J2 to get to first oil some way down the line. The OGA won't approve an FDP until it's certain the applicant (and whoever it's in bed with at the time) has access to the funds needed to ensure the whole project can run effectively from start to finish. That's as I understand the situation anyway.

So, work on analysis the mountain of new data provided by the PGS survey/s to continue until JOG has a full understanding of what it has to offer to a party interested in farming in - and hence what sort of % and what terms need to be offered for JOG to make the investment case to the OGA. The usual way to do this would be for JOG to open a data room (maybe 6 months down the line?) to attract interest from the right sort of oilcos. It is not impossible to think one or more might want to buy JOG, particularly if it saw good value in the share price. Any farm out by JOG would be for value (ie at a ppb) because what JOG has to offer are certified P1 reserves. I have referred a few times recently to what discovered reserves in the NS (pre-development spend) change hands for and it isn't peanuts.

In the meantime, it is not inconceivable an announcement will be made of the acquisition of a cash generative interest in a producing field. JOG has never dropped it from the agenda and there are currently a few opportunities around. The terms would have to be just right, though.

JOG (to me) is a bit like an iceberg. You don't see the 7/8ths that's going on below the surface.

Not sure where you get JOG's market cap of $65m, PC. I make it more like $50m. It was assessed by the same market in April 2017 to be worth $40m, when it had precious little cash and no oil. It's said the way to make significant gains is to buy shares in companies the market has failed to understand are inherently worth more. Something along the lines: "price is what you pay - value is what you get".

What also seems to be true in that: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." (Warren Buffett)

dyofr/imfoo

silverlight - I always make a point of researching the companies (and perhaps more importantly the people) I invest in. I generally invest for the longer term and rely on the fundamentals to come through in the share price if and when the relevant companies achieve their objectives. This can take years. I'm not so sure about the "old school investor" bit. I'm pretty sure most would say it good practice to know what you're investing in.

Price is only of tangible importance at the time one either buys or sells, craig. Both short and long term holders have a place in the markets because neither could survive and hopefully prosper without the other - there simply wouldn't be a market in the shares. You might be missing the point that JOG's share price is subject to more than the usual degree of volatility, because there are so few shares in issue and those that are are quite tightly held (ie they are in the hands of investors who are in for the full ride and won't be tempted to sell at what they might regard as the a share price that doesn't reflect JOG's true circumstances and potential).

Considering only price when making decisions on when to buy and when to sell is akin to gambling imv. It's betting on how others are going to react in a given set of circumstances. There might be a skill to it - as there is in horse racing (which I enjoy). Well-informed and researched longer term holders are gambling too - but their bets are made from a position in which they believe in their judgment that, longer term, their investments will provide good or better returns. This belief may or may not be right, because events can and do occur that cause mayhem, with either positive or negative effects on share prices. But there's more chance of making the right choices if the proper amount of research has been done and well informed decisions, based on understanding, have been made.

My post wasn't intended to be aggressive - I don't give a FF when others buy, sell - or indeed do anything else with their shares. I did, however, find it a bit odd that someone should be saying a company that has provided him with a 400% return inside 2 years somehow wasn't worth discussing because its shares are trading at less than they were two years ago. I put it to you that it's a failure of the market to understand that's the problem, craig. A great deal has happened that is positive since Oct 2017, including a set-back the Company has put behind it. Try getting the market to understand this. And there is probably a lot more to come. Hours, days and weeks might be long periods for short term traders, but they are a 'flick of a finger' to a long-sighted oil and gas company. Are you sure you're suited to the sector, craig?

Silverknight: ref: "shame about some of the vacuous comments though"..............
"vacuous - adjective: having or showing a lack of thought or intelligence; mindless".

Whose comments did you have in mind??

GLAL
dyor

...........do you not think JOG is in a better position now than it was at the time of the placing and offer, craig? you might give us your views on this? There's lots more to talk about too - eg what holders think might be going on behind the scenes? You might also start a conversation by giving us your thoughts on some of what's happened recently? Or, over a longer period, what shareholders might regard as fair value for JOG's shares, based on everything that's happened since Oct 2017 (the month of the offer you refer to)?

Your interest in JOG, however, seems only to be about the price the shares are trading at, which can never produce any meaningful discussion, because share price is only ever about supply and demand, with a few shenanigans thrown in by market makers to trick gullible people out of a shilling or two. Forecasting prices is about forecasting the behaviour of a lot of people who buy and sell on a whim with very little understanding of how price relates to value.

You wrote on 24 August, when JOG's share price was 146p: "I have a holding in jersey oil and gas , from 2 years ago , overall im up as a 3 bagger if I sold now , but they are so frustrating , up to £2.50 down to £1.70 sideways , down, up , etc etc would you say premier oil is a better share for the short term play , to get a 25% return , ive noticed the stock goes up to around £1.20 ish then down to 55-75 p on a decline , is it a better bet trying to buy in to premier oil at say 65p and waiting for the £1 then selling and repeating the process".

So your frustration appears to be with having invested in a company whose shares have increased in price by more than the 4x in 2 years, craig. Have you considered UKOG? It could soon be producing 500 boe per day and there are only 7 billion shares in issue. Pity FRR isn't available anymore. That was a good one too.

I was looking back through posts made on another forum in JOG's early days and came across the following post (June 2016)which might say something about patience. It was made by poster who seemed to me at the time to lack - how shall I put it - 'cerebral alacrity' (this was only my opinion). It highlights the dangers of investing based only on price: JOG's shares at the time were trading at 22p: "Thanks Eagle. I’ll look into what you posted in more detail soon. That said I just sold a third of my holding - at 25p - and put it into FRR (averaging down there after some massive dilution news mullered it this morning)".

Have you considered betting on horses, craig? Back a 10/1 winner in a 5 furlong sprint and you can ten-bag in about a minute................

GL

.........haven't heard "loaded catapult" yet............

.......£43 soon........

All tongue in cheek of course, but the £43 is vaguely relevant. Trap Oil's IPO price in 2011 was 43p. If anyone here today bought shares in TRAP in the 2011 IPO, their equivalent price today (after a 1 for 100 share consolidation when JOG reversed in in 2015) would be £43.

So, if anyone in Jersey is reading this, you know what some people might be looking for. Don't let them down! I am not among them btw - my TRAP holding (which got me my first 20k JOG shares) was worth 5% of what I had paid for it (average 4.4p per share) when JOG reversed in in 2015.

After forming the view the NKOTB were intelligent, experienced and committed people whose integrity was beyond question, I then applied my sophisticated investment strategy (sh*t or bust) and the rest, as they say, is history........which is ongoing. JOG is only really at the starting line.
There are many challenges to overcome before the JOG Board can say it has met or exceeded its objectives, but I'm as confident as I can be they're up to the challenges ahead and that, barring unforeseen events (some outside JOG's control) the real rewards are still to come. Never forget that JOG's directors' futures also depend on them succeeding in their limitless efforts to add real value to JOG. That the market doesn't appear to understand (or place much value on) what has been achieved to date is an anomaly - sadly not that unusual these days in an investment/trading world that concentrates mainly on short term prices and is largely unable to distinguish one company from another. Laziness is part of the problem - many people simply don't bother to do the research that's fundamental to understanding one's investments properly. I can't be accused of that, but it doesn't mean I'm right in my conclusions. I always try to take a balanced view of any given set of circumstances, but I've missed things in the past. No-one can predict the future - but experience has taught me the risks of getting things wrong can be substantially reduced through research and understanding. JOG's circumstances - and the opportunities open to it - imv, are almost unique.

Since the first day of dealing in the new JOG shares (Aug 2015), the JOG team has increased shareholder value (per share; ie regardless of placings etc) from 22p to whatever it is today (200p?). There's a great deal of upside, as no-one should need telling. Nothing is guaranteed, but imv there's an excellent chance of JOG going on to achieve what it (and its first rate advisers) believe it can.

....just thought some might appreciate a potted history.........

Loaded catapult? Who knows?

all imo/dyor

Benjis - I don't see JOG going it alone. Why would they risk so much? They're a small-cap and they're talking big numbers with the GBA project. £800m of up-front development spend to get to first oil (is this the right number?) would be too big an ask for JOG on its own, on top of potential contributions to two or more drills in P2170 whenever Equinor decides to press the button.

JOG's founder directors are 'feet on the ground' people who are focused on building shareholder value through smart thinking and actions that follow, built on the back of decades of experience gained all over the world in positions at the top end of organisations they worked in before they decided to paddle their own canoe.

They're not going to rush into a farm out of Buchan and J2 to prove to a doubting market that the funds needed to get to first oil (and beyond) can be found. Barring a catastrophe, JOG's certain they will be - why wouldn't they be? The OGA agrees otherwise JOG wouldn't have been awarded the licences. There's a mountain of data to work through (new seismics and enhanced imaging) and to fully understand. JOG isn't about to potentially give away too big a share of the action by immediately opening a data room and rushing into a farm out just to please the doubters.

They also won't want to run it to the wire. FDP submission is targeted about 2 years from now so, if they're to meet this target, a data room will have to be opened 6 months or more beforehand. Everyone submitting a FDP must demonstrate that funding is in place not only to get to production, but to meet the OGA's well defined objective - MER; maximise economic recovery (ie pour as much tax as possible into the Treasury's empty oil coffers because Brown's (60%) and Osborne's (62%) stupid and greedy tax rates drove everyone away when the oil price fell)and decommissioning on top. Give Sir Ian a knighthood.........hang on a minute, he's already got one.

Apologies for my flippancy - I've been shouting at the TV and have got all het up (again - why do I torture myself?). The Fiona Bruce show - sorry, Question Time - to be more precise. Effing British Brainwashing Corporation - I hate hypocrisy and the constant lauding of failure.

Anyway, I reckon JOG will open a data room when they're ready to do so without giving too much away. My earnest hope is that what they farm out (for value - there's enough recent evidence around of what proven reserves go for) will cover JOG's share of development spend. Then I hope they sell.

A sale could come earlier - if a buyer emerges and the offer is enough. Many things are possible - most would be be good for LTHs as I read things. I refer again to the risks - they can't be ignored - it's oil & gas and risk is endemic.

Give us some cash flow first please (a smart BKR type acquisition) and that will do for me.

dyor

PS should I feel sorry for those who bailed at 165p on Tuesday?

........"if" being the operative word. One of these days there might be an announcement and the price will just keep going until something more like fair value is achieved. 180p might then just become a distant memory. Here's hoping!

Examples?

1. Announcement of a deal to acquire a working interest (WI) in a producing field generating significant cash. SQZ (Serica) showed last year what can be done by pulling off the BKR deal (BP were sellers). SQZ's market cap has risen from about £7m to c.£350m inside 4 years and the SP has gone up 5x since the BKR deal was announced. It's now generating free cash approaching $100m pa - and imv could soon announce another deal. I still make it fundamentally undervalued although much depends on the US OFAC's annual renewal of SQZ's exemption from Trump's new sanctions against Iran (the Iranian National Oil Co owns a 50% WI in the Rhum Field which provides c. 5% of Britain's annual gas consumption).

Given that more than one of the big O&G cos is exiting the UKCS - particularly where their interests are in later life fields (their overhead set-ups make it uneconomic to extract increasingly lower flow-rate oil or gas). More deals of the BKR type could well become available. This isn't a plug for SQZ btw - it's relevant to JOG, which is also a low G&A cost operation. SQZ has also significantly increased production in BK&R by focusing on maximising output in the B,K&R fields it is now operating. It is extracting significantly more gas than BP managed to do when it was operator. It's what it's good at and is its 'raison d'etre'. The big players aren't either keen or well equipped (even if they were inclined to do so) to "fiddle around" in small volumes when there are bigger prizes available around the globe. In their eyes it is inefficient use of its substantial resources. SQZ has its extraction costs per boe down to $14 and at this level it is very profitable and cash generative. Volumes are big to SQZ, which is a much smaller entity (than BP).

So I haven't ruled out JOG finally doing what it has repeatedly said it is aiming to since the outset - strive to acquire assets with the right profile if the right deal can be done. RBL might be the right way to provide the funds.

2. JOG hasn't so far provided much detail about the new seismics and enhanced imaging. Rockflow and Petrofac are new members of the team. When the time is right and the data has been fully digested, there might be announcements of new leads and prospects that add to JOG's already well-stocked cupboard.

3 JOG might at any time come onto an international player's radar as a potential acquisition at a value that leaves a lot for the acquiror. What the market thinks JOG is worth at the time won't matter.

Risk can never be eliminated when owning O&G juniors . Many of the risks are 'macro' in nature and are outside any one co's control. There are also others.

I'm bullish because of the facts and JOG's great team.

dyor

MadCrann - I'd wager JOG is more than happy Equinor didn't take up the option. They offered it because they felt they should in the spirit of partnership and because there is great chemistry between the two companies. I don't detect any concerns whatsoever about JOG's ability to farm out - for value - what many other companies engaged in seeking out oil reserves in the North Sea are highly likely (as opposed to highlyunlikely) to want to bid to own a share of.

But JOG won't be looking for a partner (or partners) until it fully understands what it will be offering (for value, which is likely to include a free carry through to first oil) someone a key to. This won't be possible until the new seismic data has been and properly studied and fully understood. This doesn't happen in two minutes, which is about the average time many on here and another forum who think they're clever shout about how long it should all take. There's a word to describe these types but I'm too polite to use it (hint: it's the opposite of thin).

There is no bogeyman here - just a whole lot of people who are focused (as usual) on problems that don't exist and short term prices that don't really matter because JOG won't be using its paper to raise more funds anytime soon. Why? Because they don't need to. I am not saying that at some time in the future more funds won't be needed, but when and if this happens it will be for different reasons and you can bet your bottom dollar those reasons will be sound and will result in a significant increase in shareholder value.

In the meantime keep selling and spreading false rumours (in no particular order). Hopefully this panic "sell-off" based on thin air will lead to more of JOG's shares being held by people advantageously born with a fully functioning cerebrum and discussions about JOG's extremely bright future can then become more meaningful.

Just a suggestion, ajax, never mind a super de luxe 4 bedder at Skeggers - how about setting your sights on a whole park :-)

jmofwiw - dyofr

.........ajax - form is temporary, class is permanent..........

The timescales have now been laid out for shareholders. 2 years to FDP. To submit a FDP requires whoever is submitting it to demonstrate beyond reasonable doubt that the funding is there to take the project all the way through to decommissioning at the back end. Ergo, well before FDP submission date JOG must anticipate having a partner on board to provide the lion's share of the development funding.

I still don't rule out JOG making an acquisition of an income producing producing interest to help fund its ambitious plans.

I also don't see any particular reason to conclude Equinor has lost (or might lose) interest in Licence P2170, aka Verbier. Maybe there won't be any drilling activity on the licence until 2021, but so what? In oil & gas timescales the new seismic data has only been in the P2170 licence partners' hands for 5 minutes. There must be an enormous amount of detailed work to be done to interpret new data on existing discoveries, prospects and leads - also on assessing new leads brought to light by the enhanced imaging. Both JOG & Equinor have plenty to get on with -without losing momentum - before deciding when and where the next drilling activity should be undertaken.

It is inconceivable to think the 100m+ boe owned by JOG in Buchan & J2 will do anything other than attract strong interest from oilcos of different sizes and natures. JOG will be determined to get any partnering arrangements right and not undersell such a valuable asset by opening a data room before it and its advisers have a full understanding of the whole of the whole of the GBA.

It might take 12-18 months for the market finally to 'get' what JOG is all about - but get there it will. Thereafter, when people start trying to buy into what I still firmly believe will be a story of great success for JOG and its patient longer term holders, they might not be able to persuade existing holders to part with shares they have always known the value of and have had the good sense to hold onto when others have lost their nerve, or have seen what they believe are better opportunities elsewhere. Good luck to them.

The above are only my personal views (aspirations?) and should not be taken in any other way. The way I look at the situation is: "it isn't rocket science".

"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffett.

dyor

..........that one had me in stitches, Sotb. Cross made his fortune on Dana. PMG is about adding to it. Shareholders are useful because they buy his B/S. What value has he delivered for the fortune he pays himself each year as PMG's value stagnates? The last acquisition stank to high heaven.

all imo of course.

Herron - contact me off-board if you want some thoughts from where I sit. I remain (and intend to remain) fully invested. I'm fed up with no-one responding to my posts, which appear to interest very few. I accept I am intolerant of the idiotic ramblings of people who appear to be verging on the educationally sub-normal. Frankly, I don't care what people think of me as a person and I'm not after popularity awards. I always tell it as I see it - life's too short.

I will summarise though. I have an unconventional approach to risk which (to me) can be significantly reduced if the right conditions are met. Right up there at the top of my list of "must haves" is committed management who are exceptionally capable and are (realistically) ambitious for success that is fairly split between themselves and fellow shareholders. Above all directors must be people of integrity. JOG ticks all my boxes. July's stunning news of the award of 120m boe of already discovered resources (now reserves) in one of the best parts of the NS so fully underpinned everything that JOG has been trying to achieve as to make the current valuation of of the Company absurd.

More visibility is needed on funding, but the situation JOG finds itself in is akin to the mythical "elephant in the fridge". There is hard evidence of the ppboe (with and without development funding in place) that discovered resources change hands for on the UKCS. JOG is sitting on hundreds of millions of £/$ worth of resources the market (made up in part by any number of clueless individuals who post on here) either can't or stubbornly won't recognise anything like the true value of.

I was there (and investing) as recently as January 2016, when the market was saying JOG was worth less than my home (the SP was around 8p at the time and there were 8.4m shares in issue giving JOG a value of less than £700k). "The market" was fixated on the wrong things, all set in the present. 9 talented people in JOG were working flat out for their and other shareholders' futures. JOG had specific objectives that were made easier to achieve as the oil price fell. JOG's failure (sofar) to acquire producing interests hasn't been for lack of trying. The opportunities offered haven't ticked all JOG's boxes. For all we know JOG might have been a preferred bidder but another bidding entity might have had cash immediately available whereas JOG would have had to refer to shareholders to raise the funds. Who knows?

Don't take any notice of me - dyor and reach your own conclusions. The evidence is staring you in the face

all imo

...........comfortably tucked up in a decent B&B (£12.75 a night inc breakfast - remarkable value even with no running water. Other things to do in the SE tomorrow so earliest is Thursday.

PC01 just about has it covered. I was impressed with his height. I missed the first 40 mins thanks to "Extinction Rebellion" (which cost the UK tens if not hundreds of millions of pounds - all of whom will have travelled to central London using modes of transport tha increase the carbon footprint - I'd make ER extinct).

Why not consider the info JOG put on its website and use it as a basis for discussion. I endorse PCs comment about JOG being content Equinor didn't bite. JOG only offered them the stake because they like and respect them and felt it was the right thing to do as their partner in P2170. The operator's tag wasn't up for grabs and this put control with JOG, which evidently didn't suit Equinor. I doubt very much Eq had much impact on JOG's 31st SLR applications on which JOG had been working for two and a half years. Talk about visionary.............

I need to think more about JOG becoming a producer. It's entirely possible I won't be around to see first oil and I'd like to move to ethereal pastures with a bit more in the Post Office. Plus, although I'm not saying the circumstances are the same, when I look at companies like HUR, which now has a m/c of about £800m, I'm struggling to see what shareholders have gained out of all the worry before it got to become a producer. The infection is called AIM where the laws of astrophysics as they relate to value are shoved up the rear ends of (surprised and increasingly disappointed) advocates of the "price is what yo pay value is what you get". It's all very well if you've got decades................

In the meantime, Tonto - disguised as a door - had his knob shot off in earlier market skirmishes.
Tip for JOG: engage David Lenigas and one or two of his lieutenants to write your RNSs..........

https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/CMD-Presentation-8-October-2019-vFINAL.pdf

dyofr

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