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In all the time I've been posting on here I cannot recall reading an assessment of JOG that is as far from the truth as your pitiful effort, Robsroom. If it's the result of your careful research, you must go through life in a haze.......

GL nonetheless.

Master RSI - no-one can say with certainty who is (apparently) providing the MMs with more than just a plentiful supply of stock. What I posted was factual information about a particular situation that had arisen in the period 25 June to 30 Sept 2019. It would seem to me to make sense for the Company to ask its registrars (Equiniti) to provide up to date information regarding significant holdings and publish this on its website.

Sadly, imv the volatility of JOG's share price acts to discourage a significant number of potential investors in JOG. At the current SP level, the market apparently regards the 100MMstb of discovered oil in the GBA - of which JOG owns 100% - as a liability. Is this realistic? My own view is that it's daft. Funding for the development phase will be needed but it's difficult to see why this prove insurmountable, given JOG owns 100% of the 2C resources . Pretences seem to me to be being made in this regard.

PR might be part of the overall issue. Endless numbers of people to whom JOG has "preached the gospel" appear to be heathens so, when a seller emerges (it seems likely the one third drop in SP over the past less than 3 months reflects a share overhang) the price goes only one way. Whilst my holding remains fully intact, I - and people like me - can't be expected to just keep on buying, regardless of our conviction the fundamentals support a much higher price. New 'longer term' blood is needed and it is very slow to emerge, which is no real surprise given it's AIM we're talking about and the "Wild West" was subject to a lot better regulation. Whenever the next piece of news is announced (assuming it isn't immediately interpreted as negative, thereby driving the SP lower still) the SP will do well to recover to close to where it was before the selling began - the MMs will see to that without much effort. I call it "busy fool syndrome".

I can't wait to get out of the markets altogether but will remain patient until my last two stories play out. Only JOG and SQZ to go and I'll be off and running, never to return. I don't judge 'now' to be the right time to sell any of either of my holdings,even assuming I could.

Everyone's finances/needs/ambitions are different. GL whatever you decide to do - any action would be understandable in the absence of clarification of what's really responsible for the long SP drift . More clarity on significant holdings is needed imv.

GLA

dyor

MasterRSI: the answer to why there appears to be a supply of shares that constantly extinguishes any demand as it arises, causing the price drift over the past few weeks, might be found in the information set out below. I make no comment, but know what I think. I do not believe the price drift has anything at all to do with JOG's own circumstances or prospects.
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/1.html
"A person must notify the issuer of the percentage of its voting rights he holds as shareholder or holds or is deemed to hold through his direct or indirect holding of financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1R (1) (or a combination of such holdings) if the percentage of those voting rights:

(1) reaches, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% (or in the case of a non-UK issuer on the basis of thresholds at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50% and 75%) as a result of an acquisition or disposal of shares or financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1 R".

*********************************************************************************************
The RNS linked immediately below was the last one issued by JOG (which must rely on the information submitted by the relevant holder) relating to holdings in the name of Richard Griffiths and controlled undertakings. JOG was notified on 27 June 2019 about RG's holding on 25 June, when you will note that RG's holding was stated to have risen to 9.4% of JOG's shares in issue.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/holding-s--in-company/201906271727427288D/

JOG produces a quarterly update of significant shareholders (based on the shareholdings advised by the Registrars (Equiniti)) and publishes the same on its website. Immediately below is what is shown on JOG's website, relating to significant holdings at 30 September 2019:
https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/investors/shareholder-information/

You will note that Richard Griffiths is recorded as holding 8.66% of JOG's shares at 30 September 2019. When was JOG (and thence the Market) notified that Mr Griffiths' holding had crossed the 9% threshold?? As far as I can tell, it wasn't. So, between 27 June and 30 September Mr Griffiths would appear to have sold c.161,500 shares without informing the Company and the Market he had done so.

With that principle established, it is interesting that a significant number of JOG shares appear to have been sold in the market since 30 September, yet no disclosures from significant holders have been made via RNS.

I am not sure if the following is relevant:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/11/05/former-rugby-star-among-biggest-losers-mothercare-collapse/

Mr Griffiths would appear to have acquired his JOG holding when the shares were trading in the range 55-70p.

dyor

I'm not having a go at you, Investoroilgas. but WB's actual quote is commonly held to have been: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."

Of more relevance is that it is doubtful, when he made the quote, that he had in mind that it should apply to investments in O&G 'mid-caps' with a limited number of producing assets.

Given the segment of the overall sector SQZ operates in, and the evident acceptance of risk by fans of SQZ that is endemic in it, perhaps some of WB's other quotes might be more 'fitting': eg: (i) "price is what you pay; value is what you get" or perhaps: "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

I am one such committed fan, btw, holding what I regard as a sizable number of shares. But I recognise the risks involved - both of the micro and the macro variety. I don't mind risk at all - as long as I understand and can make sensible judgments about how given events might pan out. In fact I'm only interested in companies where risks are apparent - otherwise where would the excitement and satisfaction of discovering gems like SQZ come from? JOG is another example in my book. I could go on about "never invest more than you can afford to lose" blah, blah, blah etc, until the cows come home. But the reality is that disappointments have to be taken on the chin and the spirit should never be extinguished. Otherwise become a mouse. OK - I don't take a conventional approach.

Anyway, the risks outside the Company's control? Without really thinking too hard: (a) political factors, inc an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran: (b) more general political instability - in the ME in particular; (c) a Labour Government an unpredictable number of voters (who don't understand this would bring Britain to its knees, and would target the O&G industry in particular for destruction in the name of climate change) might put in office. Labour is presently a dangerously left wing outfit which appears to regard the US as "the enemy", when for 100 years+ it has been our stoutest and most loyal ally. Without US support, two world wars could never have been won - never mind the future opportunities it offers the UK today ; (d) volatile O&G prices caused, inter alia by the fact that the two main markets in O&G (ICE and Nymex) are held by many to be the playthings of two giants (imo not very honest ones) in the investment banking world (GS & JPM). According to a reputable article I read not that long ago (the FT I think?) only about 1 in every 20 forward contracts entered into actually results in the delivery or uptake of oil or gas. This is partly because a large number of contracts are entered into for hedging purposes, but the GM/JPM antics can't be ignored. It's all made possible because any or all forward contracts can ultimately to be settled for 'cash'.

Apologies if I've bored you all.

jmofwiw/dyor

RR - re: "(I) largely sold down at 180 and plan to buy again at sub 100"............ if you believe what you write, why not go the whole hog and sell the rest at 185p? This is surely what an expert would do to make money?

Gell - reference the companies I named as providing better value in my last post: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2weDBlOTgmoforgive me for not being entirely serious, . My sarky turn of phrase is not one of better attributes. I get a bit fed up sometimes when what I see as the blindingly obvious seems to escape many people. It is only my opinion but what can anyone see in the companies I mentioned - particularly UKOG, which has very little oil and 7bn shares in issue. Its directors take out enough each year to see they'll be ok though. FRR was a con - as I pointed out on many occasions.

I suppose I take too much for granted the decades of experience I gained doing share valuations for a living (individual holdings, whole enterprises - for a whole range of purposes). Multiple different issues have to be taken into account, all fundamentally involving a full assessment of risk (of all kinds, particularly involving the ability of company management to deliver results ). The overriding objective of most companies is to achieve profits - and ultimately to pay dividends - both of which (through p/e and dividend yield respectively) enable the value of an investment to be bench-marked against other investments after factoring in all kinds of risk. In summary, the greater the risk, the greater the expected rate of return.

How does all the above affect early stage E&P oil juniors like JOG, many will no doubt ask. As the risks diminish, so the price of a company's stock should increase, because each forward move should take the company closer to producing a predictable return. In the case of oil juniors with good assets but perhaps limited cash, this can come in the form of merger or takeover.

Each step JOG takes from now on will be designed to take the Company closer to production - and therefore to generating income and net profit. There's no saying they'll get there because JOG might get taken out much sooner. But the price offered would have to reflect the future opportunities. I'll be looking for strong interest from outside parties when the FDP is in place.

'People' make the difference between companies that succeed and those that don't. JOG has an experienced, committed and extremely competent team, to which it is still adding. We place our trust in them and I doubt they will let us down.

The only other AIM oilco I am now interested in is SQZ, which has over the past 3 or 4 years grown from a market cap in the low millions to today's c.£350m, without adding to its shares in issue. It now generates significant income and talks of paying a dividend next year.

JOG should improve with age. Some people/things do. Relax:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=St6jyEFe5WM

dyor

Are you suggesting Arden Partners don't know what they're talking about, gell? The way to make significant gains on investments is to invest in companies that are undervalued by the market for whatever reason, then hold until either the company's circumstances change, or the price rises to a level that is close enough to fair value to justify a sale. People of course have other needs for cash so longer term investors don't always hold forever - cash might be needed to put into other investments that offer better prospects, like Ascent Resources or Mosman Oil and Gas for instance. UKOG is another good one - and so was FRR until it disappeared. This of course assumes the person making the investment has a basic understanding of how companies are valued, or has enough sense to accept the reasoned explanations put forward by others (including house brokers like Arden Partners, who are paid for their expertise) who do have such understanding. That said, there is no such thing as a racing certainty, least of all when investing in O&G juniors, even when they're as well managed and have as many booked reserves as JOG.

Back to Arden Partners. Their considered opinion is that JOG has:
"Total Risked NAV (p/share) 729
Total Unrisked NAV (p/share) 1,631.......................
.........in our view, the market is yet to fully appreciate JOG’s new asset position; we maintain our Buy recommendation and 600p target".

How do you judge Arden's £6 target as too big, but that JOG is worth £3 all day long, micgill? I'm not having a go at you - I'm just interested in your reasoning.

Gell - do you know what NAV means, or how it might relate to a company's share price? Are you aware of how many shares JOG has in circulation and how the price of these is determined - in the short term at least? What effect on the share price do you think a limited number of investors wanting to buy - say 200,000 shares each - would have on JOG's share price?

50p looked big to me when I was buying at prices below 25p in late 2015/early 2016, micgill. JOG looks just as good value to me now as at any time to date. The notion that Equinor declining to accept JOG's offer to relinquish 50% of Buchan's and J2's reserves (but not the title: "operator"), simply for a share of JOG's licence application costs, means JOG will have difficulty in raising the funds needed for the infrastructure, is a flawed one. The oil is known to exist and has a ppb value to a company farming in. When JOG has fully assessed what the GBA is actually likely to hold, after thoroughly evaluating the mass of data the GPS survey/s provided, it seems certain to me a data room will be opened for the express purpose of farming out as low a % of the relevant licences as is necessary to fund JOG's share of the development spend.

When funding falls out of the equation there will be every reason for people to invest and the resulting demand should fuel significant SP growth.
all imo - dyor

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