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...........usual valuable insights from people who couldn't run a sweet shop successfully.

Is SQZ expecting to start eating into its increasing cash pile as a result of recent events? Or maybe it's already doing so and is teetering on the edge of insolvency?

Were the much-vaunted dividend to be postponed or cancelled, the share price would bomb. Is it the directors' intention that this should happen?

dyor

My sympathies go out to you, Ajax. Let's hope the world returns to something like normal faster than expected.

Let's also hope some lessons have been learned as a result of all this. It seems to me that leaders of the civilised countries that trade with uncivilised ones (certainly in relation to how they treat their citizens and animals) have it in their power to bring China (and other SE Asian countries) into line. OK - that's a pipe-dream - it won't win enough votes.

It will soon be too late, because flooding the West with all its cheap goods for so long, has resulted in a steady transfer of money from West to East, to the stage most countries in the West are hopelessly in debt and effectively dependent on China for the situation to continue, because people in the West demand the cheap goods China produces under barbaric conditions . China hasn't been slow to use its wealth to make it probably the world's most powerful country. China's economy might not be the size of the US but it has had a vast trading surplus with most Western countries for a few decades now. It has used the money to acquire large numbers of strategic investments in overseas countries (eg US banks and real estate) inc the UK and has established a position of control over a good deal of the world's mineral wealth naturally found in many central African countries. It doesn't seem to have difficulty cosying up to violent dictators when there is a call for it.

The strength of its military position is what would concern me most - it continues to pour huge amounts into its "defence" sector, which the US and Britain started cutting back decades ago, to the extent we might find ourselves at the mercy of people who don't like us that much. China and Russia come to mind. The US would adopt the ring-fence' approach. Luckily we've got 27 ex EU buddies we were even closer to when they controlled us. Phew.

Is it a coincidence that C19 came from Wuhan, which is the home of China's only Grade 4 chemical weapons research facility (equivalent Porton Down)?
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-hit-wuhan-has-two-laboratories-linked-chines/

If we see China moving to increase its ownership interests in strategic companies and industries in the West, at rock bottom prices as a result of C19, what are we to think?

I'll be ok about it if CNOC comes knocking and buys JOG (with its nearly 400MMboe of discovered oil and prospects in the CNS) for £600m, which might have been more, but for the fall off in oil demand. That said, they might not have to bother - they've probably been forward buying as much as possible as a result of the dispute about whose d.ick is bigger that's been going on to catastrophic effect between KSA, Russia and the US.

I still reckon you'll get that luxury A1+ three bed static in Savile Row, Skegness you've been hankering for, Ajax. And very well deserved it will be too.

Do you intend telling the missus?

GL

dyor

EV: A UK North Sea oil and gas discovery is showing “significant promise”, a project partner said today.
Neptune Energy said it was “encouraged” by the discovery at the Isabella exploration well in the central North Sea.
The company said the well results would be analysed further to firm up plans for appraisal activity and recoverable resource estimates, which were not disclosed today.
Neptune did say the well encountered 210 ft of net pay of lean gas and condensate and high-quality light oil.
Isabella was drilled by the Noble Sam Hartley jack-up rig and is now being plugged and abandoned.
In October, Delek Group, whose Ithaca Energy subsidiary has a stake in the licence containing Isabella, said two prospects were being targeted.
They were thought to have combined resources of 63.4 million barrels of oil and 499.2 billion cubic feet of gas, at best.
The licence is operated by French energy giant Total, which has a 30% working interest, while Ithaca has 10% and Euroil Exploration has 10%.
Neptune agreed to buy its 50% stake from Apache in 2018.
Jim House, Neptune chief executive, said: “The discovery of hydrocarbons in three separate formations is positive news for Neptune and our partners.
“While analysis of the results is ongoing, the initial findings show significant promise".
“Having acquired our interest in the exciting HPHT Isabella prospect in 2018, the result further strengthens our growing UK portfolio and demonstrates the significant remaining hydrocarbon potential in the region.”
Kevin McLachlan, senior vice president of exploration at Total, said: “The initial results at Isabella are encouraging. This demonstrates that our exploration strategy in the North Sea to explore for value adding prospects nearby to our infrastructure is working.”

************************************************************************************
SH
OIL giant Total has made a discovery in the North Sea which has generated excitement following the recent slump in the crude price.
The French company made a gas find it described as encouraging around 100 miles east of Aberdeen continuing a run of success that has shown there is still lots to go for in the North Sea.
The find with the Isabella well was the third that Total has made in the North Sea in recent months.
Oil and gas consultancy Wood Mackenzie said Isabella extended a period of ‘exploration triumph’ in the UK for Total.
The company’s success will provide a badly-needed boost for firms in the North Sea amid the market turmoil triggered by the coronavirus and the start of a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.............
................... "The success Total has enjoyed with its recent exploration activity could encourage firms to look again at mature areas in the NS".
https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/18313475.promising-north-sea-find-boosts-oil-gas-industry-amid-crude-price-slump/

dyor

https://www.ft.com/content/bfb22e3e-6921-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

Firstly, I thought the Bank of England was supposed to operate independently of Govt??
"Andrew Bailey, the new Bank of England governor, said on Wednesday that the UK central bank was willing to pump unlimited quantities of money into the economy via its new commercial paper facility to help fight the effects of the coronavirus — and would go further if requested to by the government";
Second: printing money is No 1 on the list of catastrophic actions taken by third world country dictators. OK, £330bn isn't that much in the grand scheme of things (ie measured against the overall volume of money in circulation) but guess who gets to gain from it? Yep......the good old Govt again. The pound in the small people's people's pockets buys less - and the Govt uses the notes (figuratively speaking) it's printed for nothing to lend or (as I understand things having only briefly read a few different interpretations of what's actually intended) at whatever rates it claims is "attractive" to companies above a certain size, against whatever security is deemed appropriate. Or in the case of listed companies, takes redeemable (or convertible) bonds at whatever coupon is demanded, as security instead. If all the debt is repaid, will the result not be that the Govt has printed £330bn of new notes it gets to keep?

Please, someone, help me to understand. I shouldn't be having these doubts about the honesty and integrity of Britain's MPs and other gang leaders. I'm getting really anxious about things and I might in other circumstances suffer sleep loss as a result (were it not for the fact I have to get up about 3 or 4 times a night for a pee anyway, as a result of old man's prostate (BPH)). Too much information - but I'm only 112. The next thing someone's gonna tell me is that I'm at risk. What from ffs? It's reasonably plain my brain is riddled with something disturbingly spongy already - what else is left to go wrong?

............."47 further pages of drivel deleted here" - Ed

...........and another thing too whilst we're on the subject................

byeee.........apologies everyone - Ed. We've banned the cretin for good...........you're safe now.
Please take care. By the way, all this nonsense about brokers lending people's shares without their express permission, to earn themselves lending fees is beyond belief. Heaven forbid.............32 pages deleted here - Richard Head - gotcha back...........

dyofr
imowo

PTLP: re "they now have to give at least £330Bn to the people that are suffering"...........

..........as I understand it the Govt is LENDING up to £330bn to businesses re C19 etc. They're not 'giving' anything, because the proposal is to charge "attractive rates of interest". Anytime soon the forces are also coming after the ultra-conservative types who think it's smart to have cash in the bank. It won't be smart at all when they start getting charged for banks holding their money-ie: "negative interest". Money buys votes because the money can be spent on the poor, who are largely made up of people who've spent everything that's ever come through their hands on themselves, with no thought given about setting aside something to supplement the very modest OAP that becomes payable at the relevant age. Incidentally, more is available but only to those who report that they have in fact spent everything that's ever come into their position on booze, fags, gambling, holidays, cars, season tickets to watch their favourite football clubs, SkySports & BT subscriptions, giant-sized LED TVs - need I carry on? OK - not everyone is like this but an indecently large number do fit the description. We're supposed to live in a decent society and protect those in need, so they can lives with dignity - and I'm 100% behind this as a concept. But taking from those who aren't well off but have provided for lean times by making sacrifices others wouldn't is seriously taking the P. Most people in Britain don't come from a privileged background and have not shied from hard work; nor have most sat on substantial ar5es and demanded that the mountain come to them, rather than the other way around.

back on topic, regulation has been cancelled. Try contacting AIM Investigations (one of the two offshoots of the old, ineffectual and morally vacuous FSA ) to report manipulation (one of its core responsibilities). It won't talk to you unless you're a pro broker. As for the other off-shoot (the FCA - give the man who ran it a knighthood and make him governor of the Bank of England - you couldn't make it up) let's not go there.

Money is what it's all about. Money buys votes. Votes mean money and power. Sod the small people who don't think wealth tax is alive and kicking. In a word: politicians.

My views won't find favour with many (or even any) and I don't claim that what I write is true. It's just what I believe is happening. More and more people are permanently exiting the markets because they see a game they simply can't win if they try to keep a balanced portfolio. Cumulatively less money chases the same number of cos - top-ups are made annually by fund managers and so it continues. What should be 10 dwindles over time to 5 or less ...etc, etc.

My strategy? Sh*t or bust - pick a couple of future winners, wait, sell at 10x plus and run for the hills. If they don't win? Tough - I tried. No-one will have died.

Being timid never wins prizes.

dyor

contd........

Shorters will say it's healthy for the markets because it flushes out weak companies........yeah......a bit like you going to your GP with a headache and he/she euthanising you

If investors generally were selling down in the quantities causing the dramatic falls is index values, they would be putting their money into traditional safe havens like gold. But the price of gold hasn't shifted, which tells us it's repeated shorting that's mainly responsible for the recent catastrophic fall in stock market values across the globe. Rinse and repeat almost daily- the greed is phenomenal.

There are more than 25,000 hedge funds around the globe. Not all are bad - some are 'long' only and have decent working practices and objective. Hedge funds are accumulations of money 'invested' (usually in minimum amounts of £250k) by already rich individuals for people like the offensive morality-free types who manage them to put to good use for high returns for the rich investors. The hedge fund managers aren't shy about taking vast amounts for themselves out of their "winnings". Something like 140 people named in the Times Rich List (1000 richest people in the UK) last year were hedge fund owners/managers.

And the UK Government loves it. I can tell you this because I wrote to Gordon Brown back in the day (thinking he would fundamentally object to the practice when it was explained to him). Not a bit of it. I had a letter back from some senior bod in the Treasury telling me shorting was a very good thing and justifying it by giving me all the baloney I outlined in my last post.

I have explained before (but will do so again - some mud is bound to stick in the end) that the UK Govt (more specifically HMRC can't touch private investors' and pension savers' money when it's held in portfolios controlled by them, or in managed funds looked after on their behalf by the scumbag pension fund industry. Let hedge funds with UK ops and investment banks strip out your money and it's a huge tax bonanza - corporation tax and higher rate income tax.

Always follow the money.........

imo/ dyor

Morning PTLP - I'm not aware of any proposal to ban short selling in the UK, although I know a ban has been imposed on short selling key stocks in other parts of Europe and elsewhere around the world. But so far I haven't read of such proposals being made in respect of UK and US listed stocks.

Many (myself included) would say the practice should be banned completely. Period. The way it's done is fundamentally dishonest. The simple reason is that the beneficial owners of the vast majority of the shares lent by their (supposed) custodians aren't aware their shares are being used for this purpose and would certainly never grant their permission for them to be if they knew. They are not made aware of the fees pocketed by the lenders for lending their shares, nor are the results of stock lending reported by the pension funds in their quarterly, half-yearly and annual performance reviews. None, if asked (I have done so across the board), will admit they do it. A general "**** and bull" story is put about by lenders generally that it doesn't matter if the shares are returned worth less because they invest for the long term; and the fees that are "earned" enable them to charge lower management fees. Utter bollo*ks.

A story is put about (inc by the Treasury) that shorting is healthy because it provides liquidity. Give me a single instance of a company that's shorted not already having enough liquidity (which for the uninitiated means there are sufficient volumes traded to allow investors and traders to freely buy and sell shares when they want). Shorter don't target illiquid companies because they're cowards. There's no guarantee they will be able to buy back the shares to return to the lender - and punitive additional fees then become payable.

The term "shorting" is another way of saying "selling". It is implicit in using the term, however,,that the aim of the seller (or "shorter") is to buy back the same number of shares at some future time at a lower price, thereby making a profit on the deal.

Where the shorting perpetrated by investment banks and hedge funds differs from the above is that the shares that are sold don't belong to the seller and the action of selling is often intended to crash the price of the target company by causing panic. It's called 'herd behaviour' - think lions and wildebeest - and such behaviour is largely exhibited by those who don't understand. On seeing the SP drop suddenly, nervous (sometimes called 'weak') holders sell down their own holdings, fearful of the price dropping further. This then allows the original seller (the hedge fund or investment bank) to close their position by buying back the shares sold they sold originally - at a lower price. They then return the shares to the lender (typically a pension fund supposedly looking after the interests of those who invested their retirement savings with the scumbags) who tucks it back into his (ie your) portfolio worth a lot less..... tbc

..........."Scott Robertson, Director of Operations at the OGA said :

"I am delighted with this collaboration agreement in the Greater Buchan Area, particularly given collaboration was a key component of the OGA's vision for the Greater Buchan Area through the 31st Supplementary Licensing Round award in 2019. Oil and gas will remain an important part of the UK's energy mix for the foreseeable future as we transition to net zero. The OGA is encouraged by the collaborative and energy efficient example Jersey Oil & Gas is setting."...........

............doesn't really seem to suggest JOG is likely to go "tits up" any time soon.........

JOG, the OGA and others with sense will know that any number of industry players looking to add to discovered resources will want a slice of what JOG owns in the GBA. A farmout deal will be negotiated around how much cash JOG wants on signing up a farm-in partner/s; the development costs that/those partner/s are willing to bear;........ which will determine the % of the action JOG retains in the licences. There is no particular reason why JOG should look for a free carry on the whole development spend. The calibre of the oil cos likely to farm in is such that one or more might well be willing to bear JOG's share of the spend needed to get to first oil (second in the case of Buchan) with payback coming out of production in the early years from the new (or resumed) fields.

There are any number of formulations that might apply. It will be down to the parties to negotiate terms that are mutually satisfactory, taking into account the circumstances of each party. What JOG has to offer sometime later this year - or conceivably a bit later, given present world conditions - won't suit all companies in the industry. JOG has to seriously interest only one or two. Hopefully there will be more, because competition would improve any deal.

What's currently happening to oil prices can't last long. The major oil-producing countries are killing themselves. Arrogance and vanity have no place in international economics. In macro terms, whatever might be written or said about oil being a dying industry, the world is running out of carbon energy reserves faster than the infrastructures that would need to be put in place for alternative energy forms to provide anywhere near enough clean energy to meet global needs can be put in place. Every last barrel of oil that can be economically extracted, will be.

That's as I read the situation anyway, having done as much as I can to understand the economics underpinning the industry I have my money invested in. We don't fully know JOG's speed of progress with its ambitious plans, but I am as certain as I can be that the second half of this year will bring much greater clarity to the overall financial picture.

Dyor, but there's no basis for the market to value JOG as it is doing. I'm not sure how easy it will be to jump onboard when the train turns around.........

SP is now lower than it was before JOG acquired 142M barrels of discovered oil in the CNS ........makes sense.

Someone dumping another 10k shares this morning into a market that doesn't want to buy anything hasn't helped. It's getting boring.

We see only a retail view, as expressed in the SP. The industry will be looking at JOG in entirely different ways - much more long-term in nature. I personally don't see a floor here in the short term, because all sense has gone. If no-one is willing to buy and there's a constant supply from a persistent seller, there is only one way the price can go.

Settle down in your bunkers and look again in a few months' time. Across the markets people aren't selling in large volume. The traditional 'run-to' commodity is gold and the price of this hasn't changed much as markets have fallen by a third. QED more people aren't buying than selling. This tells us what's really happening in the markets - shorting in huge volume (using shares the owners don't know are being lent). This has to be behind the dramatic falls and huge intra-day volatility. The least the FCA should have done is put a temporary ban on shorting until some stability returned to the markets. Nah - the utra-compliant and utterly incompetent Bailey got promoted for not achieving anything whilst he was ceo of the intentionally inept FCA - no better than its predecessor the wonder-organisation: the FSA of : "one prosecution for manipulation involving about £6m (157 people at the FSA worked on this case for more than 18 months) in its first 9 years and virtually none thereafter" fame. Gordon Brown nationalised regulation for a reason and it wasn't to ensure pension savers' and PIs' portfolios would be protected. That doesn't make the Govt money. London based hedge funds and investment banks make profits - the more the better because that can be taxed - plus their indecently rewarded personnel at top personal rates. Work it out - you don't have to be Einstein. Let's have a go
The Govt can't tax pension savers' and private investors (who have a few trillion invested in the markets). But it can (and does) tax City-based profits of hedge funds and investment. Let the latter strip out the capital of the former and you're onto a winner. When I last checked, the City accounted for about 30% of total corporate and personal tax paid in the UK. Interfere with that at your peril, Mr Bailey. Is he a knight yet?

I hate dishonesty, particularly when it is so deviously practised.

imo/dyor

I've made it two, Abatt :-)

Not sure US shale is the main problem re JOG's SP. JOG's SP has been in freefall since a seller started dumping shares (without making the required statutory declarations) last summer. There's been a constant overhang ever since. JOG isn't traded in any volume except on news and recently people don't seem to have taken well to the various news releases JOG has made (the main one relating to Equinor and its position ref the GBA. I think it was great news that Eq didn't take up the option because it opened up all kinds of value routes that would otherwise have remained closed; JOG has 100% at its disposal, which gives it all kind of value options - eg give up, sell the lot for $1 a barrel and divi out £5 a share - but the directors' aims are a great deal higher).

There is a lack of clarity about the seller's present holding. Evidence suggests he can't be trusted to make the declarations he is obliged to under the UK Companies Act. If the past is anything to go by, JOG should update its website at the end of the first quarter. There was more dumping of 10k lots this morning, as soon as a bit of buying interest emerged. Plus ca change - it happens almost every day. Given there is not a great deal of liquidity in JOG shares, the effect of the constant dumping on JOG's SP has been crippling.

On the plus side, those who have been involved since JOG's early days will know that the ride up on positive news releases can be even more dramatic. It is difficult to feel much optimism in present times but (to me - it is only my personal view) now would be the wrong time to capitulate. I have oft quoted the words of Warren Buffett in regard to general investor sentiment: "Be fearful when others are brave and brave when others are fearful". I applied this myself in the dark (oil) days of late 2015 and early 2016, when no-one was interested in JOG and the price fell from the initial placing level (22p) to about 8p. I was backing JOG's management (where TRAP's had failed) so bought as many as I could at much lower levels even than today's. There were only 8.4m shares back then and at its nadir (SP-wise) the whole company was valued at about £650k.

Given the huge increase in JOG's assets since - and assuming you take the view that, whatever happens in regard to the intended farm-out, the 142m barrels of 2C in the GBA has a value that exceeds today's SP in multiples - what's on offer today represents even better value than the 8p that was on offer in Feb 2016, when Brent crude bottomed at $27pb. 18 months later the shares reached 395p - you know the rest.

Patience is needed - the Company is working flat-out to finalise the design concepts before opening a planned data room & moving towards farm-out, then FDP. There might be delays - who can tell? But the team is focused on only one thing, which is to continue to add value for shareholders.

Price is what you pay; value is what you get

imo/dyor

It's amazing what amazes some people, Herron!!

It's impossible to miss the carnage, as pension savers and PIs with their own portfolios having their money stolen from them so greedily. But ref JOG, nothing much has changed that I can see, apart from short-term headwinds that have sunk the short-term price. It seems unlikely to me the price of Brent crude will stay in the $30s or $40s for long. The Saudis found they didn't like oil in the $30-$50pb range last time they turned the taps up (2016). Low crude prices gave them a dose of what the UK's all about - an annual deficit of about the same as the UK had improved to (c.£70bn) by 2016/17, after Gordon Brown leaving as his legacy a structural annual deficit of about £180bn. Reducing this suicidal deficit (it's still too high) is apparently called 'austerity'. "A lot less irresponsible" would be a better definition: http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/.

That's only the National Debt. Add on the unfunded liability for public sector (index-linked of course) and old age pensions, plus the onerous leases that came with Gordon's favourite private sector companies like Carillion under PFI (all the extra schools and hospitals were built on tick) and, depending on what assumptions you use, the UK Govt's total debt is in the order of £5-7 trillion pounds. Way too big even to make a dent on.

An annual deficit running into a few tens of billions might seem peanuts to SA , which has enough foreign currency reserves to last 30 years at these sorts of levels without going into debt, but the new crown prince evidently didn't like chucking money off a bridge, so sensible agreement was reached and the price of oil headed back up. Saudi Arabia's finances were repaired and the Sauds were once again comfortably able to give all its citizens the big benefits they're used to, as long as they cheer whichever generation of the House of Saud that's in power. Dates are SA's other big export.

What will happen this time around and who will blink first is anyone's guess. But someone WILL blink - it's a question of when, not if.

Assuming Coronavirus doesn't kill everyone and a vaccine emerges in a timescale that stops everyone (particularly the BBC) panicking and weeing their pants, most should soon realise the interruption in affected countries' outputs is only temporary. And one day soon, certain people who are doing No 2s on JOG's SP as soon as any buying interest emerges, will be gone for good. Good riddance and baaaaa, I say.

I'd be interested in your (and others') views on the 142 million barrels of discovered oil JOG owns in the GBA. In saying you're amazed people are still invested in JOG (generally for the long term) are you saying you don't see any value in it? If so, why does anyone bother exploring?

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get" (according to WB). He probably didn't have oil companies specifically in mind when coining this expression, but the principle seems sound to me

im

.......is dressed in the finest silks...........

Its official - JOG is worth less than £13m. It would have to pay someone to take 142 million barrels of optimum grade (API low 30s?) of discovered oil in the Central North Sea off its hands. Hang out the flags - the market has finally got it. Hurrah.

Break-even is said to be $31.06/stb. One can only assume the price of Brent crude will stay where it is forever. I have news - if it does, it won't be worth looking for or producing any more oil, half the oilcos will go bust and the world will grind to a halt. Sorry - I forgot about the Swedish freak called Greta who's gonna save us. Sadly, she's going to have to cycle or walk everywhere to tell us how.

Supply naturally meets demand somewhere in the range $65-$80, but when you've got arabs slugging it out with Russians and the US acting exclusively in its own interests , what can anyone expect? The arabs better be careful because the Ruskies are fairly adept at flavouring people's favourite tipple with neat radiation. Mind you, Putin better be careful too or he might find himself chopped up and inside an unpleasant looking and tasting meat pie. Meanwhile the UK and others grant them state visits and lay on s****y dinners with the Queen as host(ess) for murderers and other who drive a coach and horses through anything that's decent and honest. Yes, of course you can own Park Lane and Mayfair. Which other parts would you like to infest?

Someone will blink - let's hope it's within the next 6 months so that it's worth JOG opening a data room and looking for farm-in partners. Better that all this should happen now rather than in a few months time I suppose. Hopefully some sort of normality will return but it's unlikely to be soon because investors' money is gone for good - banked offshore by the hedge funds after multiple short selling, closing, rinse and repeat - all for the benefit of already very rich people. Investment banks will have had their share too. The UK govt loves it. All those extra profits "earned" in the UK to be taxed. Yippee. Sod the small fry. Let them eat cake.

JOG's been hit by a triple whammy:
(i) Coronavirus
(ii) "my dick is bigger than yours" politics applied to the world of all
(iii) an unsavoury virus emanating from somewhere near Abergavenny, which seems desperate for cash. If viruses had a brain, this one wouldn't be too clever.

Patience is all that can realistically be applied unless you believe JOG is going to fail when it's £10m cash runs out next year. I see this has now raised its head. One assumes 142MMstb will continue to be worth a minus number. God only knows how much we should deduct for the 200MMstb of prospects.

Help.

Baaaaaaa......

dyofr

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