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silverknight - everyone's circumstances: age, experience investment criteria, attitude to risk etc, are different. It would be a dull life if we were all the same.

I wouldn't expect others to have only two shares in their investment "portfolio". But at my age and given my circumstances I'm not really interested in small gains. With a balanced portfolio comes modest overall potential gain. Whatever happens, I doubt I'll ever have to rely on a food bank so. I've never done things in half measures and I'm not about to change.

Experience has taught me many things and I'm still learning new things every day. Re investing, it took me a long time (mainly due to the steadily increasing level of greed, dishonesty and frequent incompetence of directors of listed companies) to realise that the way to boost your chance of making material gains (preferably 7 figure ones) is to pick companies that have the potential to multiple their SP times over and to do as much as you can to confirm the people running the show are not only highly competent at what they do, but their level of personal integrity, determination to add shareholder value and - as important as anything - their own financial commitment to the companies they run is plainly evident. 10/10 for JOG. Greed sends me running for the exit (N/A). It took investments in IQE and Xcite Energy (I took a real bath in the latter) to let myself invest in companies it turned out were/are run by greedy, incompetent and (imv) fundamentally dishonest directors.

It wouldn't be right for me to say how I have satisfied myself (100% in JOG's case) that the two companies I hold shares in are in sound hands and meet my investment critieria. Rightly or wrongly, I see JOG's share price as being underpinned several times over, regardless of whether it is able to raise the funds to take its valuable assets further, which .the doomsters tell us it won't be. I disagree but it's only my opinion.

It doesn't make any sense for 142MMstb of top quality oil - the majority already flowed - plus another 200MMstb of prospective resources (where they are situate) not to be of interest oilcos looking to add to reserves. Even if there were no such interest, JOG would still own the resources. What would E&P Oilcos pay for this volume of (mostly already discovered) oil in a prime part of the UK North Sea? An insanely low $1 per barrel (ignoring prospects) would fetch $142m (c.£109m). There are 21.8m shares in issue. For those who can't work it out, this would make £5 per share. Or are people trying to say that E&Ps would prefer to spend a fortune assessing the chances of finding commercial oil in other licences, take years getting to the point of an exploration well being planned, then spend another $25m+ on the drill, with the chance of commercial success about 1 in 20 overall?

.. "be greedy when others are fearful ..." etc

They're all working flat out in JOG..............

dyor

........."I think everyone is fed up waiting now"..............

Are they? It seems to me we've been kept fully informed about what JOG is aiming to achieve, what sort of timescale is likely to apply and what the rewards might potentially be for those who have a bit more patience. It could not have been laid out any more clearly than in the recent London presentation: https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Oil-Capital-Presentation_120220vFinal.pdf

Maybe not everyone reads what the Company takes great care to prepare? How can anyone claim to be a serious investor if they're not prepared to carry out even the most basic research into a company they've put their money into?

For the umpteenth time, price doesn't always (or even often) reflect true underlying value. People who get rich investing, do so by identifying companies whose longer term fundamentals show the market is valuing their shares incorrectly - and then investing in them and waiting for the fundamentals to play out.

Short term price is generally about sentiment and short term gain, not sense. Those who frequently trade shares usually do so in small volumes. The ones holding the vast majority of the shares in a company like JOG don't move. So the tail can wag the dog, which is unsustainable. There are bound to be those who take a view (gamble?) on the price continuing to decline and sell part or all of their holding thinking they'll be able to buy it back later for less. I don't adopt this strategy for reasons that make sense to me.

The fact there's been a seller consistently dropping JOG shares into a thin market for 6 months tells me he's: (i) not gone about the process in the most sensible way perhaps because (ii) he's short of cash. He won't have information I and others with holdings in the company aren't privy to.

The way I see things playing out over the next few months is for JOG to give a comprehensive update whenever the full year's (2019) results are announced. I am hoping applications for further (GBA) licences were made in the OGA's 32nd Licensing Round - awards are due to be announced in Q2 - and that JOG can add more licences to its already well-stocked cupboard. Thereafter, sometime in late summer or autumn, the data room "opening" and farm-out process should proceed apace.

JOG is targeting 2021 for field development plan ('FDP') approval. Before approval is granted, the applicant must demonstrate the project is fully funded through to completion (inc decommissioning) . When the FDP is approved, JOG can legitimately describe the oil in relevant field/s as "reserves". As the oil in Buchan (for instance) has already been flowed, why would 80MMstb not be labeled: 1P, with the untested remainder 2P?

The seller will soon be gone. He may have affected JOG's share price short term but he hasn't affected its prospects loner term, which is what I'm interested in. JOG's prospects appear remarkable. 'In play' 2021 onwards (post FDP)

I understand what you say, Longwait. Whilst I do address my responses to Mr Chicken, my aim is to get wider messages about JOG out there, because it's reasonably clear to me JOG is a misunderstood company. Well, I reckon it is anyway. After a few set-backs a while ago, I decided only to invest in companies where I fully trusted management who were themselves dependent on outcome for their financial success in life. The result? My portfolio consists today of only two shares (SQZ is the other). Yes - they're that hard to find.

My experience is that talented and hard-working people tend not to fail, although outside risk can never be eliminated. Debt is the enemy and so is the constant dilution caused by raising money at the wrong times and share prices. JOG doesn't have any debt and has been very careful with its cash resources. Two placings and an offer caused the number of shares in issue to grow from 8.36m to today's 21.8m but the cash had to come from somewhere and to borrow (assuming it would have been possible) would have been the wrong move. I don't believe we'll see any form of fund raising in the foreseeable future. Farm-out is imv the best mechanism to use forthe cash that will be needed to take things to the next platform.

SQZ generated net cash of c£60m in 2019 to add to the £40m it already had. It intends to declare its maiden dividend in April (I'm expecting a 4 or 5% yield) so things do occasionally go to plan. 5 or 6 years ago the whole company was valued at about £7m. Today, with NO additional shares issued, it has a market cap of close to £300m - and imv is still materially undervalued.

So it can and does happen, but patience and fortitude is required for the real rewards to vest. My investment strategy tends towards "sh*t or bust" which I accept is not covered in the manuals. We only come this way once................ "go for it" is a term I understand when I am comfortable with an investment that meets my criteria. There won't be any more after my two present holdings have played out. There is way too much dishonesty in the UK's markets and the PI can't expect to win with a portfolio with any balance to it. Regulation was killed years ago and imv is worse today than it has ever been.

I won't go on. I'm looking for an exit here at £43 (same price as at Trap Oil's IPO in 2011). OK - I might take a bit less............. :-)

dyor

You don't seem to understand what the game is about, either in JOG or in the markets generally, Trigger. Are you an outrider for those who live their lives in the herd. 'Herd people' people rarely make it beyond the bottom step in life because their thinking is too small. They fail to put any effort into understanding fundamentals applying to companies that people already way above them in the monetary food chain have worked diligently and intelligently to identify and act on.

You say: "I just can’t believe with a £42 price prediction by the baby on here, there is not a millionaire in the background who could make 42 times his Money and become a multi millionaire. !!!!!". I have news for you: there are at least 5 "millionaires" I know personally who invested in JOG at prices much lower even than today's. They're still holding, but is it reasonable to expect these people to buy more - portfolio balance has to come into - just because there's a short-term share overhang caused by one investor deciding to cash in his chips? Yes, you might say, but why then aren't institutions or other millionaires piling in, with JOG having (independently confirmed) net assets of £42 a share? Well - there's a conundrum for us to wrestle with.

Oil & AIM are both presently about as popular as a STD. Fund managers also exhibit herd behaviour - and most aren't very clever either (probably a bit brighter than you but we're splitting hairs).

Short term price doesn't really matter. Nor will it matter much if people pay 95p, 100p, 150p or even 200p - the lower the entry price the greater the eventual gain of course. The difficulty people are going to have when the tide turns is getting in at all. There are only 21.8m shares in issue and prices move quickly. We'll get news soon enough. My own assessment of JOG's situation is that, if things go broadly according to plan with farm-out(s) later this year and FDP approval in 2021, the Company will be put in play. Leave infrastructure and oil extraction to bigger fish. That would just be my personal preference - age, personal circumstances and risk tolerance might dictate differently to others.

RG will soon be gone. What he seems to have sold of late (if the 10k lots are his) has been mopped up by what looks to be someone who's accumulating. Maybe one of the institutions has woken up, or a fund manager has emerged whose main aim isn't just bonus protection? Who knows? It's clearly a funny world. When JOG only had an 18% share of an absolute top-whack estimated 130MMstb (ie 24MMstb) in an untested field in the GBA, the market said it was worth £50m. Now that it owns outright 142MMstb of discovered oil - most of it flowed - it's worth £22m. Makes sense.

The market has JOG as a binary bet - it's saying JOG won't raise the funds to move forward with the GBA discovered oil. I say it will but where's the downside? 142MMsb @ $1 pb anyone? £5 a share.

Silence

all imo/dyor

Everyone is free to express opinions, but some opinions are worth more than others. Those expressed by people who haven't done the slightest bit of research before posting negatively (or indeed positively) about events that are fundamental to a company's share price, aren't worth anything.

To address Alessandro's post:
"Is it matter of if or when, regarding the resume of production?" If you're suggesting a broken caisson on the Bruce platform might cause a permanent loss of production from the Bruce, Keith and Rhum fields, then I suggest you consult a psychiatrist.

"I envisage there might be a delay in dividend pay-out following this accident"
I would ask the question "why do you think this Alessandro?"

At 31 December 2019, SQZ held cash balances in excess of £100m. It has no debt. During 2019 SQZ generated c£60m of net cash. On 14 January 2020, its CEO stated: "Serica expects to announce its maiden dividend at the time of the 2019 Annual Results in April 2020".

We have not heard in the 3 weeks out of the 8 weeks anticipated production loss since the problem with the caisson was announced, that there are any circumstances that would cause the directors to believe the situation is to a material extent different to that disclosed. To cancel a dividend payment effectively promised to shareholders based solely on a temprary set-back would be an act of self-harm by the directors. They will know that were the market to regard such a dividend as sustainable, it would underpin the Company's share price based on a dividend yield measurement alone. There are of course many other factors that affect the share price in companies like SQZ, but to be able to rely on an annual income from a holding in the Company would prove attractive to a range of potential new investors, bringing added strength to the share price.

I don't expect you to understand what follows, but a dividend of (say) 5p (people will have different views about how much will be decided upon) would produce a dividend yield of close to 5% at SQZ's present SP. Such a dividend payment would cost SQZ about £14m - hardly stretching for a company generating so much cash, regardless of the unusually low gas prices and the temporary production loss from BKR.

I accept you say: there "might" be a delay in the dividend payment, but it is clear to me your intention is to sow the seed of doubt into holders of SQZ shares. You failed in my case. All you havedone is shown is that you haven't read what's been published and applied intelligent thought. The following might help:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/serica-energy-plc--sqz-/rns/corporate-update/202001140700056658Z/
https://www.investegate.co.uk/serica-energy-plc--sqz-/rns/bruce-platform/202001300700123619B/

GL with DGOC

dyor

Not sure how you define 'long wait', Longwait. I'm more optimistic and think there's a realistic chance of getting unexpected (positive ) news when we not expecting it.

I am probably one of a limited number of people who hope JOG applied for (and will be awarded) additional licences in the 32nd OGA Licensing Round, which closed on 19 Nov 2019. Results of applications will be announced in Q2 2020 (ie anytime after 31 March - just over a month from now). I hasten to add I have no idea if JOG did or didn't apply. If it did, it could only realistically have applied for licences in the GBA.

I struggled to find definitive information on the blocks made available by the OGA in this latest round and their precise locations (768 blocks or part-blocks were put on offer across the main producing areas of the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS)). However, if my interpretation of the geography is correct (or somewhere close) the following blocks available in the latest round are adjacent to one or more of JOG's present blocks under licence:
20/5 d&e; 20/9; 20/10; 21/6 c; 21/7.

Can someone else look at the info on the OGA website and give their opinion, as I'm not certain my interpretation is correct? There are links in the article to mapped areas and block numbers etc
https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/news-publications/news/2019/oga-launches-32nd-offshore-licensing-round-with-groundbreaking-supporting-datasets/
https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/our_assets/licence-map/

There is (potentially) guidance about how quickly JOG intends seriously to add tangible shareholder value (imv) in the wording used on P15 of the recent Oil Capital presentation (linked above):
(i) >140mmbbls 2C - 5 discovered oil fields
(ii) >200mmbbls PR - 8 High Value exploration prospects
(iii) Key contractors appointed; Concept Select phase underway
(iv) 2020 Farm-out(s): Maximise Economic Value from GBA
(v) FDP 2021

Adding more prospects and leads via additional licences in the GBA could surely only to add to JOG's appeal to an established player looking to add to existing resources/reserves. Farm-out(s) followed prospective sale (I'm allowed to hope - makes sense on the kind of numbers we'd be looking at)?

Some interesting comments from the OGA to throw back at those shouting: "oil is finished"
"Government forecasts show that oil and gas will remain an important part of our energy mix for the foreseeable future, therefore maximising economic recovery from the UKCS is vital to meet our energy demands and reduce reliance on imports".
.........and from a fully paid-up member of the green movement:
"Global fossil fuel consumption is on the rise, and new reserves are becoming harder to find. Those that are discovered are significantly smaller than the ones that have been found in the past. Oil reserves are a good example: 16 of the 20 largest oil fields in the world have reached peak level production – they’re simply too small to keep up with global demand".

dyor

LW - my guess is that he's got an open sell order placed via his broker. MMs won't take stock unless they can broadly balance their books on a daily basis, so they might be partially filling what is a big sell order as demand materialises from buyers. You might have experienced the "can't process your instructions at present - either phone us or place a limit order (and we'll see what we can do)" response from your internet broker from time to time, particularly when activity levels are high for whatever reason.

There is no certainty that anyone selling in anticipation of buying back at a lower price later will be able to do so when push comes to shove - particularly if unexpected positive news is announced to the market. Those who (like me and probably you) have definitive views on what JOG shares are fundamentally worth are unlikely to be tempted to sell at prices they regard as way too low - even though these prices might be double or triple today's SP.

Short term traders are a different kettle of fish, but how many shares are these types holding? Not that many I would wager. JOG's share are known to be tightly held by relatively few investors. Apart from the significant holders JOG lists, there are quite a few holders of 1%-3%,inc 2 or 3 institutions (the last time I checked) with holdings below the disclosure threshold. People I know personally account for more than 3%.

JOG's directors have been very careful not to flood the market with shares in the company, not least because the issue of new shares at the wrong price would significantly dilute existing holders. They've had 3 equity raises: (i) at the outset in Aug 2015 to raise about £800k (ii) a small placing at 110p in Nov 2016 to raise £1.6m and (iii) a placing and offer in Oct 2017 to raise about £24m.

It gives me confidence that JOG's principals have a lot of skin in the game. What's good for them is good for us - and vice versa. Not that common an occurrence these days............

Roll on late summer/early autumn................

imo/dyor

I was relieved to read your response, LW. I always enjoy reading your posts and find your views balanced and well constructed so was disappointed to read negative comments I thought were aimed at me. Thanks for sorting out my confusion.

Re HUR, I've had a cursory look at the overall situation. The directors must have decided to take the company "all the way", which was a high risk strategy for an oil junior with little in the way of funds to achieve the directors' lofty ambitions. In the event, turning HUR into a produced involved raising a very significant chunk of equity-based funding - I assume at a discount to prevailing market prices when the new equity was issued. This had the effect (as it always does) of diluting existing holders. Whilst the Company's market cap increased exponentially, the SP didn't because existing shareholders were progressively diluted. I'm sure you know all this as you were there at the time. I call it the law of diminishing returns - and fear the same thing in JOG if the directors don't have the good sense to sell the company to a much bigger fish when the FDP has been approved.

HUR's directors (Trice in particular) were always going to be ok (it's an ill wind..) and I see from the 2018 accounts that two directors shyly took remuneration of in excess of $400k and Trice 50% more than this (inc bonuses) well before first oil had been achieved. Trice is full of shares - 26m of them (did he pay for these?) - and it was still necessary to borrow to get to the starting line (from memory there was a convertible loan of about $250m in the 2018 accounts and further debt described as "derivatives liabilities" or something similar - I have no idea what this relates to and don't intend to spend time finding out).

Then there were a few glitches before getting to production and then the sector malaise kicked in with a vengeance. So I can sort of understand why not that many investors not already committed to the cause might find HUR unappealing, all things considered. Directors who see themselves as: "kings of the North Sea" are dangerous to shareholders - as I found out to my considerable cost with Rupert Cole and Xcite Energy. I sense delusions of grandeur, when what shareholders probably want is a decent short to medium return after waiting so long.

I've probably missed out important considerations that make HUR special, but until it starts to book profits that turn into cash, pays down the convertible debt and outline plans to return cash to shareholders (dividends) as reward for their loyalty and commitment, the shares will probably continue to struggle. My bet would be the directors look after their own interests first - whatever these might be. I probably sound cynical, which I am (about AIM directors in general).

I don't have the same reservations about JOG's senior people, who I think have their feet on the ground, with their interests aligned with other holders. Time will tell.

imo/dyor

LW - re: "Who cares what the market believes?"

..........what the market believes (and individual investors interested in buying or selling shares believe) is fundamental to everything about investing. "The market" is an amalgam of people currently trading shares, whose actions (buy or sell) determine individual companies' share prices. Those who are inactive (ie not buying or selling shares) have no influence on an individual company's share price. So you could have a situation where 90% of shareholders don't want to sell because they see value in their holding, but 10% do . It's up to MMs to make a market and we've recently seen how this can affect one company's SP at least when the 10% wants to sell. Existing holders can't be expected to keep buying to take up the seller's shares, so new investors (or short term traders smelling a gain on a quick 'in and out") have to be found to keep the MMs' books level. No point in setting out here what's been written over decades on the subject. It's not rocket science but is a subject all serious investors should understand if they're to prosper.

The real money is to be made by those who can work out when the market has badly misjudged a company's value and either buy or sell that company's shares accordingly. For more than a year after JOG's team took control of TRAP (TRAP changed its name to JOG in Aug 2015) 'the market' thought JOG was worth very little. Perhaps working on the principle: talented and committed people rarely fail, those who took an opposite view - assuming they held onto their shares - will have done very well out of the market's misjudgment.

I don't know a great deal about HUR, although I have watched its progress over the past 4 or 5 years, during the course of which its market cap has increased multiple times, giving it a market value of just over £300m at yesterday's closing SP. I haven't looked at the numbers' but you seem to be saying HUR is booking an annual post tax profit of £300m. If this is true then I agree it is seriously undervalued. Like JOG, it is AIM and oil and sentiment is against them both.

As for which recorded share trades are attributable to RG and which aren't, it's guesswork. Why would he not be behind the trades of 75k shares late on Friday, the 25k and 82.5k yesterday and many other (usually round number) sales? He isn't noted for his adherence to the disclosure rules so I hope JOG is keeping tabs on the situation via Equiniti and will tell us (more often than just quarterly) as he crosses the various thresholds.

As for me being a know-all, I don't claim to know everything but I do know more than some (and less than others). Regardless, I only ever express opinions and always suggest others do their own research. To the extent possible I express opinions that are based on facts, although judgment inevitably comes into the equation

GL

imo/dyor

Ajax - caution might get the better of me, so I might sell a few at around a tenner. I'll let you know (might not be until next year though).

Wonder if the clever chap on here who repeatedly told us that a certain person's arrival on the scene last April was v good news indeed (which the more sane among us disputed) and that the "Jerseyman" (for this read 'tax opportunist') was "entitled" to a seat on the board (poppy****) still thinks the same? I note this individual has since reduced his holding to nominal status only. Hope he doesn't miss out on the fun when the overhang (and the big investor - my a*se) has gone and positive news starts to emerge.

Too many people seem to be thinking about the very short term where JOG is concerned. It's soul-destroying watching paper value seep away, but it's important, if you're a LTH, always to think beyond short term price. The latter is always the result of short term supply and demand. Fundamentals determine longer term shareholder reward and there's no reason to think this will change in a hurry.

Whilst there can never be guarantees, the simple fact is that, with or without funding in place, JOG owns 142MMbstb of discovered resources in a prime spot in the CNS. Somehow or other this oil has been construed to be worth 20 cents a barrel.

The emperor is indeed wearing the finest silks (he's actually boll**k naked).

People should think for themselves rather than listening to others. JOG's fundamentals seem to me to be stronger than ever - as I see things anyway. I find it difficult to believe JOG's (expanded) team of experienced and committed professionals are doing anything other than continuing to create shareholder value. This is what they've done ever since taking the helm of TRAP in Aug 2015 - despite suffering a number of set-backs along the way.

The seller will soon have gone (or stopped selling if he has any sense at all). A steady newsflow will follow as events dictate. Until a farm-out is announced there is bound to be uncertainty, but we should learn more about funding plans before too long. Last year's results (and corporate update) were announced on 20 May but we'll possibly hear something substantive before then.

I remain optimistic. Things don't happen overnight in oil and patience is definitely a requirement here.
GLAL

all imo -dyor

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