Member Info for dickupham

PC01 - was there a need to be so rude and sarcastic to a former chart competition winner who is so modest as to tell us how often he doubles his money or more? OK - yes there was and well done for your commendable efforts on our behalf. Reading into your posts you come across as a philanthropist at heart (like me) who is sensitive to the plight of others - particularly those who are cerebrally challenged. This can often be recognised through an inability of the challenged party to express her/himself clearly in a language recognisable as English, or to apply logic to everyday occurrences.

What this particular challenged party fails to recognise is that nothing he writes relates to the fundamentals of the companies the future values of which he professes the ability to predict. His posts might be analogous to (and as useful as) those of someone alighting on this board advising us that we've just had a few weeks of unbroken sunshine so his chart says we're now due for a bit of rain. Yesterday he would have been right and had he bet on it in advance, he might have doubled his money. I guess we don't get to hear of the bets he's lost, because he surely wouldn't spend every day telling everyone how clever he is if he had as many 0s on his bank statement as Jeff Bezos.

This link was struck out the other day along with the rest of that particular thread:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
There is a lot to support the existence of the condition. The bit that particularly applies to the challenged individual is the following: .........."the cognitive bias of illusory superiority.... comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability".

I rest my case. What day is it? What's the share price? Please don't ask me which one. I reckon some will goup and some will go down. Some might even stay the same. It all depends.

dyor

.......it's like an annoying fly...........use the filter and life will improve. Yesterday's bullcaca is matched only by today's.

Those of us who are in for the long ride know that JOG's SP is news driven and that short term traders get bored when there's a lack of it. As they sell, the price drifts down. Rinse and repeat. They get left behind when the news is positive, because JOG is highly geared SP-wise and it really flies, with less than 22m shares in circulation, a lot of these held by LTHs who are in for the duration. They see the potential rewards on offer if JOG's directors achieve what they're working towards (they hold upwards of 10% along with family and friends).

Short term SP movement is about supply and demand. It's not rocket science. I'd prefer it is simpletons like the one who's spouting drivel every day would pick companies other than JOG to spout his drivel about.

A farm out might not take as long as many are expecting, given the volatility of world trading conditions and the price of oil. Companies in this industry tend to think beyond the short term, although weakness in oil prices is bound to affect the price at which deals are done. The risks are about farming out and finance. The oil is known to exist - and a great deal of it at that. If you don't like risk, you shouldn't be here. Risk and reward come in equal measure, generally speaking.

Just to clarify the £43 price tag people have always laughed at, it was chosen for illustration. When Trap Oil first listed in 2011 (it was renamed JOG in 2015) the shares were priced @ 43p. The offer was fully subscribed. TRAP listed with 220m shares and £86m in the bank. Over the next 3.5 years, It blew the lot and very nearly went bust.
There was a 1 for 100 consolidation when JOG was acquired in 2015, meaning that the TRAP IPO holders remaining when JOG rode in (it was a RTO but was presented as a T/O to maintain TRAP's substantial tax losses) had effectively paid £43 per share for their shares, not 43p.

A £43 price tag would return those holders the 43p they paid back in 2011.

TRAP did have a licence no-one there knew much about (because the CEO and COO had gone on the bidding of a certain "value shareholder"). Someone in JOG found it in the former cleaner's cupboard.
"Shall I bin it along with all the other rubbish" the finder asked
"What's it got written on it" the new CEO demanded
"P2170" said the finder
"Give it to Ron and ask him if it's worth keeping"..............

I suppose it would have been a wise move for former TRAP holders to assess the likely capabilities of the NKsOTB, swallow hard, then pile into new JOG shares at the incredibly low prices they were on offer at by Feb 2016, when the whole Company was said by the market to be worth less than a 3-bed semi in London..............

Maybe someone did?

dyor

£43.............

https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/AGM-2020-audio-presentation4-1.mp4

Your posts got taken down, as did my responses earlier today. Fwiw my responses still appear on my 'profile' page along with the rest (click my name). Here's what I wrote at 07.18hrs today:

" S36 - many views have been expressed about JOG by many different posters over a long period. I have made any number of posts going back years - and before that on another forum (interactive inv) going back to Trap Oil days. There is no substitute for doing one's one research and forming one's own views and you should never invest just on the basis of what you read about a potential investment on a forum like this. This is not to say that what you read shouldn't influence your thought patterns. From a personal perspective (I have a strong background in finance) I find the views expressed by those who have worked in the industry particularly valuable. Bullson's posts are interesting in this regard, although he tends to post infrequently - I can't immediately think of others. Longwait, PC01 (there others) always make well-informed and well-argued posts. You might consider scanning the last (say) 3 months' posts - you should be able to build your knowledge of what JOG is about and why so many on here see it as a likely winner.

Imv JOG is an exciting prospect. The reasons for me holding this view have been clearly set out in the many posts I have made to date. These are all available for anyone to read (or not, as they may choose). One of the reasons (entirely non-technical) is the SP gearing brought about by low number of shares in issue and the fact these are relatively tightly held. Many on here experienced a 10x increase in JOG's SP in a single day in October 2017, when the sidetrack at Verbier came up trumps. JOG has moved a long way on since then, yet its market value has declined significantly. I don't think it is a very well understood company. Time will tell if it does go on to scale the heights and make a few people here a lot richer than they are at present.

GL, whatever you decide.

Parge - I'd prefer not to say any more than I already have on the subject of directors' remuneration. If JOG signs up with a farm-in partner on decent terms within the timescale they envisage, their remuneration won't matter. I'd have done things differently (bonus terms and soft options) and I've made my views known to the Company. As ever, I received a civil and considered response but my views haven't changed. I reckon at least one shareholder will abstain on Resolutions 1 & 2 at JOG's AGM next week, although I expect he'll be voting in favour of Resolutions 3-6.

dyor

Your contributions are ever so valuable, MRSA. And I thank you from the heart of my bottom for your latest.

The purpose of what I wrote was not what you suggest. People other than just us minions read the blogs and it doesn't do any harm putting down a marker every so often. Bit too subtle for you I guess, with all your 'break-out' twaddle and the like.

I only sold 27 shares (@ 92.6p). I don't like behaviour that reminds me of Rupert Cole (or Kew, Smith and others). I don't expect the same result here but selling a few made me feel better. I bought a few (138) HUR at 6.5p 2 days ago. My plan is to double my money on HUR (the oil is still there; it will just come out more slowly) and buy even more JOG shares than I sold because I like a good gamble (as opposed to gambol, which is what sheep do - you can ask RG if you don't believe me).

I've still got 1k JOG shares left so I'll still be a winner if the exploration drill off the Pembrokeshire coast comes off.

imo/dyor

https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Jersey-Oil-and-Gas-AR-2019-Final-signed-6-May-2020.pdf...............

.......see page 33

Maybe today's activity was JOG's directors buying shares out of their bonuses because they're so undervalued................

Some hope or Bob Hope?

The timing might have been better - say when a farm in partner emerged and the Company's future was assured.

Share options for the non-execs? What's all this about the highest standards of corporate governance??

I sold a few and invested elsewhere. Shareholders have taken a battering and precious money's taken out and put in the bank? It hardly suggests confidence on their part. I (partly) exclude the chairman, who at least put his hand in his pocket and bought 20k.

The Happy Eater beckons.............

hasiba - don't give the morons oxygen. Why would there be a placing any time soon when the price is still so wrong? They've got enough cash to last them until the end of next year anyway. The key issue is what terms JOG will be able to negotiate a farm out on when the time comes later this year - maybe more than one.

If people would just apply a bit of logic they would see the light. Even at £1, JOG is still valued at less than £22m, which is peanuts compared with the assets they're holding.

dyor

".........Is it not inevitable that a placing will occur in the very near future? IMHO the answer is yes".

............the usual dimwits pitch up with thoughts an average 5 yr old would be embarrassed to express.............

..........when was any drilling activity - and the action that follows it - ever completed on time?

The schedule is under their control; SQZ is operator

jmofwiw

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

"Brent crude futures erased early losses to trade above $31 per barrel on Thursday, after dropping 4% on Wednesday, boosted by data showing a rise in China's oil imports during April" and a surprise increase in the country's exports".

I wonder who's in a better position to judge - JOG's chairman or you, Tc?

No conflicting statements have been made about cash that I can find. Can you be more specific?

Whilst you're sorry to say what you do (I wish you well with whatever you put your money into next) I'm pleased to say that not everyone the industry is behaving as you imply. M&A activity in the NS may well have declined, but there's a negotiable price for everything.

JOG has a lot of margin to play with. Oil is finite, bigger players constantly need to add to reserves and good opportunities relating to the future rarely get passed over.

Time will tell - it won't be long before we find out if you're right or not.

dyor

..........you're learning quickly, sotb.

There's hope yet................ :-)

......"5 years away to first oil......What's the wait for ?"...........

.........it's to give you time to catch up, sotb :-)

"....squibs however are not (damp)"............

.......they can be...........in which case they won't ignite.

Squid, on the other hand, can ignite. But only if you leave them too long in the frying pan and the oil catches fire.

Have you ever heard of a sick squid? It's about what JOG's SP should be today :-)

No real point in explaining everything again to people who post the nonsense they do. But I'll give it one more try:

If no-one is going to be interested in farming into already discovered and (mostly) proven to flow (at commercial rates) prime oil in a prolific part of the CNS, when JOG opens a data room later this year ('summer' is given as the likely date), then why are oil companies still committing countless millions to drilling exploration wells in the North Sea, when there's an average chance of commercial success of only about 5%?

Imagine the whoops of delight of shareholders in a company spending $25m or more on an exploration drill (plus the cost of the work leading up to it) on receiving the news that an exploration drill has discovered 142m barrels of prime oil in a prime location - and how that company's share price would rocket. Oil analysts would be all over it like a rash talking sky-high numbers, regardless of short term issues around global oil demand and prices.

JOG's SP increased 10x in a day (2017) when the Verbier discovery (JOG share 5-25m barrels) was announced. Yet when it's been awarded 3 licences by the OGA, has since been awarded another and JOG has since taken over Equinor's 70% interest in Verbier - so that it now owns all but 100% of 142m barrels of discovered contingent resources (they can't be described as 'reserves' until a FDP is approved) these 142m barrels are worth nothing?

Then of course there's the small matter of 230m barrels of prospective resources in the same NS postcode (GBA). Also worth nothing?

I doubt JOG will be the company extracting first oil from Buchan. If the industry is awake, a bigger player looking to add to its reserves will take JOG under its wing at a price that reflects industry value. That price is unlikely to be a single digit one.

That's as I see things anyway. Of course there's risk - no-one should be in oilcos if they won't accept this basic premise. The skill lies in understanding and evaluating it. Being timid is no good either. D'heads like some of those dropping in this morning are the worst of all. They pretend to give sage advice. They're losers - they don't understand and they won't take the risk, so they try to generate a price for entry (or exit) that favours them. Bin them. They know little and understand less.

Risk? If oil prices stay where they are indefinitely, it will be because the world has come to a standstill. Who cares what sectors and companies you're invested in if that happens? The strong likelihood is it won't and that oil prices will recover.

Someone mentioned CLRN earlier. I see the accountant CEO and his chum the COO shyly awarded themselves £230k and £200k packages after drowning holders in new shares - inc a £40k bonus each for CLNR losing 80% of its value since they took over.

I held 5m shs 'til Algy left GS i/c. Sold & added JOG and SQZ last May at abt the same prices as today. There's hope, but poor form by dirs so not for

.....former NED not MED: non-executive director.

From what I understand, he bought in around the 30p level, sat through the drop to 3p (when SQZ was valued at £7m) and is still there not having sold a single share. It's quite remarkable that SQZ went from a £7m m/c to c £360m (when the SP reached 140p) without increasing the shares in issue except for a modest number of LTIP shares for employees. He's an incredibly clever and experienced investor with an impressive CV. He only stepped down as a NED because he's a US citizen and the BKR acquisition might have left SQZ exposed.

When do people think would be the best time to put SQZ into play? Before or after 100% of the production income flows to SQZ?

What's written below is largely (although not entirely) 'off topic', but it's Friday and the markets are closed. Nothing I write is intended as advice - people should do their own research and reach their own conclusions.

I didn't think for a minute you were knocking JOG, Mommur. There's a long story attaching to my involvement, particularly towards the latter part of the Company's life as TRAP (JOG IS TRAP, which changed its name to JOG when JOG backed in. The transaction was presented as an acquisition of JOG by TRAP to preserve the tax losses). I owned about 1% of TRAP at that time. There was a lot more to it than met the eye (if you're interested it would have to be "off board" - altereagle51@gmail.com - it's entirely up to you. I was 95% down on my holding when JOG rode in. Thanks to adding 15x to my TRAP holding, mostly in 2015 and early 2016, it's ended up being by far the most productive investment I've ever held - even at recent deflated prices. And it's still only at the starting line. There are of course risks given all that's currently going on but I fully accept these and strongly believe they are worth taking. I was (still am) really taken by JOG's founders (I work on the premise talented and honest people rarely fail, which has served me well in life, not just investing). You'll know all this if you follow that BB. I believe JOG's price is materially wrong despite the perceived risks. I probably know more about the situation than most, as I've made it my business to find out and I'm not a shirker. I hold very few investments concentrate only on those where I am as sure as I can be about the quality and honesty of management, combined with a share price that doesn't imv reflect fair value. It's the "price is what you pay: value is what you get" principle and my investments are always chosen with the long term rewards firmly in mind. That's enough about me and JOG.

I failed to say that the "back of a fag packet" NPV of SQZ I've mugged up (making a number of assumptions that might not turn out to be right - future oil & gas prices and maintenance and downtime being the main ones) is well north of £2 a share - although this is only an indication of what the Company might realise on a trade sale. No buyer is ever going to pay full NPV, for obvious reasons, unless the vendors assumptions are clearly ultra cautious. Corporate sales invariably involve negotiation based on all kinds of circumstances that might be relevant at the time. I just hope ACW and MF (plus the former MED who holds about 17%) have a realistic timescale and target price in mind.

Lots of holders seem to have a very low average buying price (my own is around 20-22p - I bought in a few tranches from 14p to 27p) so to them anything above (say) 150p would probably be a good result.

I'm not entirely sure my crystal ball is working 100%. Could someone lend me their so I can check.

Enjoy the weekend, whatever that means in current times

Not sure there'll be another BKR-type deal, NK. That was extraordinary and it ended up being whatever the opposite of a perfect storm is called for SQZ, which was "the chosen one". Rhum (50% Iran owned) was too much of a political hot potato for BP, given relatively recent history; ie Macondo, when the p.o.s Obama called BP "British Petroleum" to concentrate US anger (and liability) on the super-major and less so on the US cos involved: BP had the deepest pockets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_explosion

The way I read it re BKR was that, being 50% Iran owned, Rhum was seen by the then current BP management as having the potential to cause BP serious problems, given its ongoing interests in the US. It struck me there was probably good karma between BP and TCW & MF. BP can't have thought badly of MF & TCW to offer the deal it did. Lucky us (and them). I guess the other BKR partners followed BP to avoid risk, with SQZ being an "inexperienced operator". Who knows or cares?

It might be a pointer as to the directors' future intentions that a CFO has not been appointed. The accounting personnel SQZ employs are clearly competent, but were SQZ to be contemplating a long term future as an independent, given the age profile of the Chairman and the CEO, it would normally be expected a CFO would be in place to at least guarantee continuity.

My guess is that SQZ will look for take-out at a value applied by the industry when the time is right. It is relevant (imo) that the Company has kept its NPV10 numbers quiet to date. I don't want to go into detail about why NPV resulting from DCF modelling is the best way to value a company because eyes would glaze over. It just is. Much simpler numbers, however, tend to dictate T/O value in the O&G industry, these usually being based around certified reserves, production p/d, age of key assets and - to an extent - future prospective resources. P/E is not a good measurement to use as a benchmark because peer comparisons are largely meaningless given O&G are finite resources and methodology is inconsistent.

I'd be surprised if the directors resort to buying shares in the market. Why risk personal money when you can have 'in the money' options. C'est la vie - it's just what happens. Very few SH will care if they deliver the right result. Skin in the game? What's that? Ask JOG's key people and they'll tell you. People seem to have missed the fact JOG owns 142MMstb of discovered oil in a prime NS postcode, plus 200MMstb of decent prospects in the same general location. They need to farm out. The market says the oil is worth nothing because it's still in the ground. Good for the market. We'll find out before too long............

I bought my holding in SQZ by selling a few thousand JOG shares (at 350-390p) I'd bought at between 8p and 25p, when they also had no value (apparently). I'm backing the JOG team, which is first rate in all respects - as is SQZ's.

dyor

........"our nuts are done in"..........

........commiserations, MC - sounds v painful.........