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Excellent find, alsoppc. Compelling stuff. The key to finding the podcast is to cut and paste the link provided into your browser. "This site can't be reached" will then appear on your screen. Delete the rubbish that appears in front of the ".co.uk/articles/amryt-pharma-record-fy-2020-results-jog-concept-select-update-russ-mould-on-the-bond-market-shock-fed3c09/" part of the web address and type in "**********" (obviously ignore the inverted commas I use that are intended to make things easier to follow).

Imv the best presentation yet from our esteemed leader (J Andrew B). He's a very impressive orator - a natural in front of the camera/microphone/whatever. He instills confidence in the listener that only needs to be followed up with the £39ps he refers to :-)

Maybe that sort of SP will be supported by the fundamentals a bit further down the line but, based on JOG's latest NPV (and taking into account the fact no buyer is ever going to pay a seller the full value of the whole project upfront to walk away with) a split of roughly 1/3rd to the seller and 2/3rds to the buyer (which is the party making all the future effort, putting up all the funds to get to first oil and of course taking all the future risks) might not be too far off the mark. In general, where M&As are concerned, it's all about the perceptions of the parties that are interested in the opportunity offered. If a potential opportunity is perceived as attractive it can lead to a "who wants it the most" type of situation. Competition inevitably drive prices up, so the more interest shown by the Industry in what JOG has to offer, the better. Maybe a 50/50 split (of NPV) would be closer to what's achievable than my 33/67; who knows? Anyway, I'll stick with the numbers I put forward last night (a SP of about £17 for all of us losers). Shame I'm not holding more but, looking on the bright side, one can only fly one helicopter at a time and more than one Princess 65 would be excessive :-)

I'm not making forecasts - I'm speculating. But what I'm putting forward doesn't seem that daft to me. It all really depends on how the O&G companies doing business (or wanting to do business) in the CNS view what's on offer. The declared intention is a farm out. But I'd much prefer (and I think it makes a lot more sense for shareholders) an outright acquisition of JOG, the prize being at least 170MMboe of 33°API oil in a highly attractive location, with development planning befitting of 21st century already carries out and paid for.

imo/dyor

I leave you with the following:
"The reality of life is that your perceptions — right or wrong — influence everything else you do. When you get a proper perspective of your perceptions, you may be surprised how many other things fall into place"
Roger Birkman

"Brent crude futures rallied 3% to trade around $68.8 a barrel on Friday, hitting their highest level since January 2020 and extending an over 4% gain in the previous session, as investors across the globe welcomed major oil producers' decision to keep crude output unchanged in April. In addition, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia said it would maintain its voluntary production cut of an additional 1 million bpd for another month. Further supporting sentiment, the US economy added more than expected jobs in February. Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent price forecast by $5 to $75 per barrel in the second quarter and $80 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, while UBS raised its forecast for Brent to $75 per barrel. Elsewhere, investors hoped that fuel demand would recover this year as economies re-open amid ongoing stimulus measures and signs of progress in COVID-19 vaccine rollouts"...............

...............https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil.

We might not get to the farm out stage. Is there any sense in the notion a bigger player looking to add to its NS reserves might be willing to pay north of $3pb for JOG's 2C resources (with due diligence on the technical front done in advance) plus (say) 50 cents pb for the drill-ready prospects?? That would yield c.$600m (£420m). Divide that into 25m shares (fully diluted) and the result is £16.80ps.

Rough check on the maths? The most recent NPV of JOG's assets is $1.7bn (now a bit higher following the recent rise in the BC oil price ). A deal at the indicative numbers would give JOG's present owners 1/3rd and leave 2/3rds to the buyer (who'd be doing all the work and taking all the risks).

OK, £16.80 is a few multiples of the present SP, but any sniff of interest would immediately bring JOG's "loaded catapult" type gearing (by virtue of there being so few shares in issue) into play.

The above is speculation only - I'm simply looking looking at one potential outcome. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that events could play out in this way. The ppbs I've used are hardly excessive given the ppb at which NS oil was changing hands pre-Covid. There has also been recent activity that's not directly comparable but has sent out positive vibes.

Not a particularly good time to be short of shares imv, but wdik? External factors over which neither JOG nor any other O&G co has any control always have to be taken into account. Recent events have benefited the sector as a whole and things can change. One question to ask is whether £20m or so would be enough to interest JOG's main men. Maybe they'd think $3pb is too low - who knows? Certainly not me.

I remain optimistic on more than one front but others should dtor and form their own views. The only certainties in life are death and taxes.

GLAL

The trouble is that what you state is not "the obvious", vk. The obvious is that the terms of the intended farm-out will include a cash contribution to JOG in addition to a significant carry on The Buchan infrastructure and GBA exploration drills. The cash would have be enough to provide JOG with a comfortable level of working capital for the foreseeable (but see below re some poss alternatives).

There are many ways JOG could part fund costs to first (second actually) oil from Buchan. RBL-type funds might be available (JOG has mentioned this before). Further shares might be issued at some stage - but not while the SP languishes so far below a value that's remotely reasonable given the circs. It's also possible another funding partner might join in with the fun at some point. VC funds are always looking for good homes in which their ill-gotten gains can grow.

All options are open because JOG has 100% of the action. It's also possible a bigger fish might not want the fuss of farming in (with JOG retaining the operator's title) and deciding a negotiated acquisition of the Company might be the simplest way to proceed. Wdik, except that It's always been reasonably clear to me and no doubt others that, when JOG is acquired by a bigger fish looking to increase its NS reserves, the price the deal is done at will be at an industry value, not one that is determined by a bunch of retail investors/traders most of whom are fixated only on short term price." 2P reserves status won't be achievable until the FDP is approved by the OGA sometime in 2022 - 2C contingent resources would be unlikely to produce the result I should think JOG's top men would settle for. Hostile bids are a rarity in the O&G sector and I doubt we'll see one here.

Names like Neptune Energy and Chrysoar (name changed to Harbour Energy) come to mind. Why would they not be interested in 180MMboe of 33°API discovered oil in such a prime location? There are many other NS-focused out there. I'd be surprised if the level of interest in what JOG potentially has to offer is not intense.

The usual caveats apply - as ever. There's always risk, but this is a lot less with the BC price in the mid-$60s. JOG's CPR featured a mid-case of $62.50pb over the life of the project. Rockflow Resources provided the numbers in Oct 2019. They came up with a NPV of $1.3bn when JOG only had about 2/3rds of the 2C resources it now claims. Make that $2bn? Let's put it this way: if the BC price holds at anywhere near present levels for the next few months, JOG can afford to be generous with whichever partner it wants to take on board.

All the above are just my personal thoughts and they might be completely up the creek. There are no guarantees in this game.

In the circumstances I reckon you should put your money in a company and industry you understand a bit better. Or perhaps try the Post Office? It offers a no risk 1%............. :-)

Thanks for all the the messages. Might post again later.

ahjh111 - the board took low remuneration in their first 4 years at the helm, during which time they steered JOG to a market cap of £40m in Oct 2017. They started with less than £1m in the bank and JOG's m/c then fell as low as £700k in early Feb 2016. There are stacks more assets now than in 2017.

I'm pretty sure they reckon they've delivered the value you're looking for - it just hasn't come through in the SP yet. Many of the options they hold are out of the money as things stand, anyway. It's not their fault the O&G sector has been out of favour for so long, that Covid19 came along to dampen demand to the extent it has, that the so-called "market" values the 172mboe of discovered oil JOG owns (and knows how to extract in a "carbon-friendly" way) at next to nothing, or that there was a share overhang going on for months at a time the shares should at least have held their own. You seem to think price = value. Supply and demand is what counts - nothing else.

Directors options are a way of life. The general idea is to align the interests of the directors with those of all other shareholders and I don't see them as being that far apart in JOG's case. Although the absolute level of options available is usually capped at 10% of total shares in issue, in JOG's case I think it's fair enough to make it 15% because they've done remarkably well to grow the company's assets and prospects to the extent they have without asking shareholders (existing and new) for any funds since Oct 2017. The gearing effect on the SP of "good news" delivery, associated with JOG having so few shares in issue, with a good percentage held by people who are in for the long ride, seems to be ignored by most posters. Perhaps this is because it has mainly worked against the company since late 2017.

I'm staying put. Hope you will take sometime to reflect and decide to retain at least part of your holding. JOG's apparently seen as something of a binary bet by those who trade the shares. I'm not sure it's that simple however - there's too much oil there for it to be ignored. I'm not usually a fan of ANALysts, but I was interested to read a comment Daniel Stewart of Arden Partners made in his recent report (target price increase from £6 to £8 per share, based on risked value per share of £11.33):
" The GBA project is, post this resource upgrade, of sufficient size to be material to any existing North Sea operator, in our view. This should make participation in the farm out process hard to avoid for all the companies in the region with the financial wherewithal to progress the development to FID, helping increase the number of participants in the process and, hopefully, the number of bids".

Changing the subject, thanks for your courtesy and good wishes, Jim. I won't be posting much over the next 3 or 4 months as a lot will be going on, but I'll do so if I'm feeling up to it and there's something to talk about. Good luck to you and yours

all imo
dyor

..........are you 'in' or 'out' at present, Herron?

I'd be very surprised if JOG was looking to raise funds when there's enough in the tank to comfortably see them through the rest of this year. Up to now the directors have been at pains not to dilute holders by issuing shares at the wrong price. It wouldn't make any sense to me for them to change that thinking now, but wdik? The plan will be to take a chunk of cash off whoever enters into partnership (as a sweetener) plus a free carry on a major part of the infrastructure in return for an interest in Buchan or the wider GBA that suits JOG. That's just as I see it playing out.

I think that what JOG is probably thinking is that the GBA project is the biggest one in the North Sea since Golden Eagle, back in the day. And that when they've finished assembling, analysing and quantifying all the data needed to enable them to present, in the optimum way, the considerable benefits that partnership with JOG would offer those energy companies given access to the data room (which is probably even now as I write being prepared for the purpose).

AB hinted yesterday about the level of interest JOG is expecting this very significant CNS project to generate. It wouldn't make sense at all to me for JOG to engage with certain parties ahead of others. The way I would approach the situation would be to get the data room up and running, generate as much noise about it as possible and trust the industry (which always thinks beyond the short term) to understand and want to be a part of a substantial, well thought out and well structured project. Putting some bread on the water, ahead of the data room being opened (assuming it does) makes sense to me. Hence I'm expecting a few more 7am announcements in the next few weeks aimed at generating interest as well as keeping shareholders informed.

I don't say I'm right about what will happen and within what timescale (who does?). But what I do know is that JOG's present share price simply doesn't make sense. For JOG, with the assets and prospects it has, to be valued at £33m is insane.

I prefer to look at the bigger picture. If projects like the GBA don't get off the ground, then why would oilcos bother with the North Sea at all?

But some big oilcos DO bother with the North Sea - particularly foreign ones. And companies looking to replace reserves that are constantly being depleted, regardless of the temporary reduction in demand caused this time principally by Covid19. My own view is that the macro situation in the carbon energy field is nowhere near as bad as presented. Oil (and gas) will still be needed in abundance, right up to the time supplies on the planet finally dry up, whether Greta T-F and her sort like it or not. The world can't suddenly change the way energy is created and dispensed - it doesn't work out like that.

I remain optimistic. Others should make up their own minds.

GL

I have very few observations on JOG’s present state of affairs that I haven’t made previously, or that haven’t been made by others on here recently (elsewhere as well, in the case of (i) Arden Partners and (ii) the man with several chins – inter alia). Yesterday's news was welcome, but was not imv 'game-changing'.

A company’s share price gives an indication of direction of travel only; in itself it is not a measure of intrinsic value, which is best provided by calculating NPV based on discounted cash flow projections over the life of the relevant company.

As a direct comparison with yesterday’s c.150p per share, reference was made by some to JOG’s share price being close to 400p in late 2017, when it only had a claim to an 18% share of the discovered and further potential oil in Verbier. The relevant comparison (in the context of the market’s failure to appreciate JOG’s intrinsic worth, then and now) should have been to JOG’s market capitalisation (m/c), which (at 350p a share – the highest price at which the shares ever closed, on 9 October 2017) gave JOG a m/c of c.£40m, because there were only 10m shares in issue at the time. Today, there are nearly 22m shares in issue so, at 150p per share, JOG has a m/c of £33m.

Ignoring (one can’t) factors that affect not only JOG’s share price/value, but that of other companies in the same sector and beyond (such factors include: Greta Twatface, who’d be doing other things were she not so facially challenged - unusual for a Scandinavian nymphette in my limited experience; it might help if she smiled occasionally – and things like the oil price, Covid19 and the particularly negative sentiment presently afflicting ‘non-green’ energy companies) what is JOG’s present real worth?

Is it worth, for instance, £4.3m less than Union Jack Oil (UJO), which has a staggering 19.5bn shares in issue after countless dilutive placings and offers. Its ultimate aim seems to be to power a few thousand gas cookers and central heating systems in Hull. There are other companies I could similarly describe that would amply show they are either overvalued, or JOG is undervalued. PC01 frequently makes the point that JOG’s gearing potential could make it the investment of the century - and who is to disagree? My “£43 soon” comments, made over a long period, might have been somewhat flippant in nature, but there has always been science behind the number. I am not forecasting a share price – merely making a comment about potential total value of JOG (more so its assets) vs TRAP when it listed in 2011. Read what’s in the most recent CPR prepared by Rockflow Resources if you want an expert view. It isn't far off.

Everything is contingent on funding, however, and there are other risks that can’t be ignored either. I’ve bagged my seat on the bus. Who’s going to measure the G-Force when/if it’s announced partnership terms have been agreed?

There'll be further announcements before the big one, I'd wager.

GLA
dyor

Abatt1 - fwiw I agree with the wise man . You're lucky to know one - can you ask him to write a few essays and post them on here for us to read, or is he too shy? We could do with some new contributions that make sense. imv he was right to scold you - I would have too, even though I'm not wise.

In relation to investing in sure fire uncertainties like junior oilcos with hope in abundance but next to nothing in the bank, there's a saying: "if you don't like the heat, get out of the kitchen". There's another saying, however: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful"........it was one of Warren Beatty's I think - amazing how someone who started off as an actor should become so rich. All very confusing if you ask me.

I've been greedy in the past when others have been fearful and it's usually cost me a fortune. A few instances of greed have paid off in spades however and I'm hopeful JOG will be another. I was relatively greedy when the SP was between about 8p and 25p in 2015/2016.

Given the fact "piecemeal" news of staged progress (concept select, discussions with potential 'hub' partners, ESG status etc) hasn't been forthcoming, the optimist in me is hoping for a 'slam dunk' announcement later this quarter that a binding deal has been done, subject only to legal niceties and OGA approval. Not that it will probably bother them but my respect for JOG's directors will be badly shaken if they don't deliver the value they talked of when taking significant increases in remuneration early last year.

None of the above is a prediction - merely a hope. Hope is not a valid investment strategy. It's encouraging to think Rockflow resources seemed to think JOG was worth £41 a share after discounting the NPV10 numbers by 30% to reflect the risk of the GBA project not going ahead. JOG's internal valuation was similar the last time I looked. Clearly this value will decline pro-rata to whatever is farmed out or otherwise "sold".

Sentiment has been - still is - against JOG: Covid19, Greta twatface and other "let's pretend the earth can get by without oil from now on, shall we?" freaks; loonies like Bernard Looney ("can anyone think of a good way to halve BP's SP? Hey - great idea - give up producing oil & gas and halve the dividend - it's a winner") and a host of other negative factors, but I'm backing it to win through in the end. If it doesn't then tough s**t. Now doesn't seem to me to be the right time to be caving in to nervousness.

Might I suggest that, for those who are exceptionally worried, the Samaritans might be able to offer support and counsel.

Make up your own minds, dyor. imvo etc etc.......yawn.

What year is it?

..........you're not looking at things realistically, dusterintroublemaker.

JOG has no debt, which makes it 100% different to Xcite Energy. You can spout all the nonsense you like to try to scare people away, but you can't scare away the facts.

Are you seriously suggesting there wouldn't be a long queue of oilcos more than keen to get their hands on JOG's discovered resources in a prime NS postcode, with a feasible plan to extract the maximum volume of oil in a practically carbon-neutral way from the GBA fields - if (should the need arise) JOG's directors felt they should cash in everyone's chips at the sort of prices I intimated in an earlier post (ie $1pb for the discovered resources (140mmboe) and 50 cents a barrel for the prospects)?

I think you're saying no-one's interested in the North Sea. The evidence is that this is ******.

I'm a bit concerned you might be suffering from a nasty case of the "Dunning Kruger effect". Just to remind you, it's a type of condition in which people believe they understand things a lot better than they actually do. Essentially, dimwits don't possess the skills needed to recognize their own dimwittedness. Put another way, people who are unable to understand things properly are incapable of understanding how little they understand. If one isn't careful, there's a risk of disappearing up one's own jacksy :-)

Just to correct one factual mistake you make in your most recent post. You say: "it's all over if nobody stumps up that's the harsh reality". Why wouldn't JOG be able to get away an admittedly diluting placing to raise - say - £10m (not that it's likely to come to this) which would comfortably keep things going for a further 2 or 3 years. A lot can happen in this sort of timescale. Regardless of the green revolution, the fact is that every last barrel of commercial oil will be extracted before Greta and the climate freaks get their way.

Don't fall for the con. The various governments' drives towards carbon-neutral energy is driven by the basic need to find new sources of energy that don't involve carbon. Oil is due to run out by 2050 anyway and new ways to power the planet have to be found before it does so, or we'll all end up back in caves again. The fact is that virtually all the carbon energy deposited (usually) thousands of feet below the earth's surface over tens, maybe hundreds of millions of years has been consumed by less than 3 generations of humans. 16 of the world's 20 biggest oil fields are in decline and there are very few new discoveries being made to replace consumed reserves. The easy pickings have all been exploited and fields the size and quality of those to be found in JOG's GBA licences are now the exception, not the rule. Ignoring the temporary blip caused by Covid 19, world demand continues to increase annually.

Try being logical. It can sometimes help.

dyor

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