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A damning indictment if ever there was one by Richard whatever his name is. The older bald bloke seemed embarrassed, given his late attempts at moderation, as Ricky got more and more animated. How many times did he tell us he'd sold. If his presentation hadn't contained so many basic errors, it might be worrying. I guess we'll know soon enough if we've been had, when we find out whether the forecast widespread industry interest in the GBA actually materialises .

Evidently Ricky Einstein, after consulting with his unidentified mate who's supposedly a FTSE 100 oilco expert, thinks he knows more than Schlumberger and Vysus - both of which one would be naturally inclined to believe know rather more about the mechanics of an industry in which they have the highest reputations. And JOG's people too. Why do some who have had no access to the data used by experts to formulate opinions they're prepared to risk their reputations on believe they know better? A smelly rat is detectable.

You can question whether all the judgments made by a small but experienced team of people in a small, under-capitalised entity,, have been 100% right to date, but I don't think you can question their choice of technical advisers. They have always sought to appoint the best; of that there can be no doubt. I am certainly in no position to make judgments on either the views of JOG's senior people, or those of its first rate industry advisers. I would never presume to do so because I have no relevant expertise.

I'm still optimistic. imv the present risk/reward ratio supports investment. I see a farm proving difficult, given the numbers involved. I've played around a bit with these and can't get to a scenario where JOG can make it work by farming out (say) 50-70% for a 75-90% carry on the £1bn Phase 1 costs. 50% for a 75% carry would imply a cost to the farminee of $9.39pb (80m barrels of 2C for £750m) - way too high. 70% for a 90% carry (112m barrels for $900k) - $8 pb - ditto. More to the point, in scenario 1 JOG would be left with 80m barrels but still have to find £200m. In scenario 2 JOG would be left with only 48mb. The market would make a meal of, either scenario, which would prevent an equity raise on terms acceptable to shareholders who would be diluted in spades if resorting to "bondholders" was to be avoided. These are usually hedge funds - the types who saw off HUR's pesky former owners and put XEL out of business.
Maybe a farminee who disagrees with Ricky Einstein by thinking there might be a few barrels of oil in the GBA might agree to fund JOG's share of Phase 1 costs. wdik? Phases 2 and 3 are of lesser significance because payment could (theoretically) be made out of production revenue.

Ans? get someone interested, flirt for a while, then proceed along the lines of:
"look, this is too difficult - how about we buy JOG @ $3 pb?"
"We wouldn't take any less than $4".
"$3.50 - final offer".
"Done"

OK - fantasyland.

Views anyone?

all i

Morning all. I'm trying to remain patient and look at the bigger picture - anyone else doing the same? We've been diluted, but JOG is stronger - as long as the ~£17m is used wisely, not - a la Swindells at DELT - to keep paying packages that aren't justifiable ad infinitum. I bear scars of the past in this regard. I wasn't that upset about the placing itself. Although dilutive, it provided funds that should be put to valuable use for some time to come. It was the c*ck-up with the leaked info that got to me. Ultimately the directors must take responsibility - it happened on their watch. They appointed the brokers and will have approved the terms. If they want absolution, then find the culprit/s, never mind asking the NOMAD to do it. It's far more likely to be part of the problem than find a solution to it; it's a City institution and almost all are rotten to the core.

The man from Delmonte............... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjB9Chw_6FE&ab_channel=ManFromDelMonteFan ..........deciding all those options should be issued to the chaps in the circs was astonishing. They're probably moving into a closed period, but there's usually a cost for co*k-ups. The bookbuild would probably have got away at 210p (?) so the leak cost 10m c.8m new shares instead of to raise £16.5m ; 25% extra dilution if my maths is correct. Don't talk to me about the options then dished out to the non-execs as well - that was an insult to us all. A real kick in the teeth.

Just looking at the facts, the following is the picture. JOG is valued by the market at ~£50m. It has ~£20m in cash and no debt. Therefore all its other assets are valued at ~£30m. JOG claims to own 172MMboe of 2C resources in the GBA. The conclusion is that (ignoring leads and prospects - >200mmboe) the 2C (33°API/36 years of production history/ plausible detailed 'concept select' data to support economic extraction) are worth £30m - or 24 cents a barrel. You decide.

Moving on............Ms Abatt, may I thank you on behalf of my brother, stickit (Upham) aka highlyunlikely - a past winner of the Leo Tolstoy Award for Brevity - for copying and pasting his post on the other board onto this one. He was thrilled - he doesn't normally get much attention. His writing style is thought by some to be similar to my own.

I see that he's been at it again earlier this morning, so can I ask you to have a go at copying it onto here using your nifty IT skills? It's too complicated for me I'm afraid. Apologies.

As you can tell, I'm still alive. Thank you for all your good wishes, which I really appreciate. The R/T course is complete. I have to wait a few weeks to see how things have progressed (PSA etc) and what comes next. I'm feeling ok in the circs. Onwards and wherever............

JOG was very special to me, but that's now history. I'll stay invested because the odds look ok. There's still risk. It's not a given that farm-out will be easy

dyor

In light of what was posted on the other board by kakapo1 yesterday I set out below what I posted in response earlier today. My post doesn't appear on the main discussion board, although I think it appears in the relevant thread. I've never understood how to work ADVFN and have therefore only very rarely posted on there. kakapoo's response made the cut, though - all a bit daft if you ask me, but I'm increasingly at odds with the world so no surprise there:

"Kakapoo1 - calm down before you wet your pants. I am the poster known as "dickupham" on the LSE blog and I'm here to promote clarity.

Whilst I might have made my frustrations clear and I am disappointed the directors appear recently to have been insensitive to the position "ordinary" shareholders find themselves in (share price going nowhere and now facing significant dilution, whilst directors have been awarded significant pay increases and mitigated the effects of their dilution with buckets-full of favourably priced share options) this doesn't change the fact the shares are still a "buy" for those who haven't already backed up the truck. In my Utopian world the interests of directors and shareholders are always fairly aligned. Recent events have caused me discomfort in this regard.
But there should still be a pot of gold ahead for those who believe in the fundamentals. It's just that this is now smaller than it was before the botched equity raise, which was totally unexpected and hasn't been well explained. I won't speculate on why it was felt necessary to raise so much money at this particular time.

Shareholders aren't supposed to agree with everything directors of companies they're invested in either say or do. The former aren't privy to the kind of information directors have at their fingertips. It's clearly critical a farm out deal is struck before they've spent the £15-17m just raised on "keeping the momentum going" (whatever this means). My personal hope is that one or more of the outfits it turns out are interested in what JOG has to offer will regard it as much simpler to buy JOG outright and avoid all the potential hassle. $3 pb for the discovered resources and a nominal 50 cents pb for the prospects would seem to me to be somewhere in the ballpark, although this is speculation (these values would result in about £13 ps based on the new shares in issue - fully diluted).

Just to make something clear, you failed to mention in your recent posts that I stated on the other board that I have no intention of reducing my holding at present.

I won't be getting involved in any further discussions about my thoughts and observations, either here or on the other board. I have other issues occupying my mind at present and would rather concentrate on things that have a more pleasant taste to them.
All imo/dyor

.............a 4-8 month process (not a 4-8 month "success") DC.

Thanks for the lesson about investing more than I can afford to lose. I'm afraid it doesn't apply to me because I'm from Mars.

The fund-raise was sprung on us and makes no sense at all with the share price languishing where it is, particularly given everything that's been said up to now about having sufficient cash to last until the end of 2021. AB has referred to it enough times. It has always been implicit that an upfront cash payment would be an inherent part of any farm-out terms. This is what the CFO said last May in the annual report (AB has talked about it many times since then):
"JOG’s cash position was £12.3m as of 31 December 2019. Our cash comfortably funds the Company through its currently contracted work programme of Concept Select, after which we will launch a sales process to sell a proportion of our equity in the Greater Buchan Area licences. Based on current estimates our cash therefore funds us through to at least the end of 2021. This provides us ample time for realising significant proceeds from a sales process to secure funds to progress the project work through to submission of a Field Development Plan and to progress the Project through to first oil and beyond".

So, what's changed? I could hypothesize but won't. All I would say is that I'd feel a bit more comfortable about the whole situation if the person making the above quote had spent any of his own money buying shares in the Company. Ask yourself which group of people haven't had their positions diluted in the way ordinary shareholders have, so soon after the announcement that 15% (up from 10%) of the Company's issued shares would now be available to award to deserving types .

I have no current plans to sell my holding. It might be thought that my comments amount to nit-picking, but everything that's happened of late has impacted negatively on certain things that are fundamentally important to me - the general subject of integrity comes into it.

I can now see problems in JOG sustaining any kind of meaningful increase in SP (for instance on announcing the agreement of a farm out agreement later in the year) because some of the Johnny-come-lately types (one or more of whom might have been responsible for the leak) who are picking up shares at a bargain basement 165p might find it difficult to resist selling for a quick profit on any positive news. Or just selling anyway. The 6 month share overhang caused by Richard Griffiths' departure from the register could be as nothing compared with what might come to pass.

I've always thought the directors, despite talking of first oil in 2025/26, really intended to sell JOG to a bigger player (maybe after FDP approval?) for a price that would make shareholders happy. Eventual returns have just fallen by 40% at a stroke. Is a sale what's now intended anyway? I'm completely lost on where we are, what to expect and when.

Guess among yourselves

I preface what’s submitted for discussion below by saying that I have no idea if there is any substance to my take on what’s been going on of late in regard to JOG and its funding plans. What I do know is that, based on everything we and the wider market have been told as recently as 8 March, it makes no sense at all for the Company to be imminently contemplating an equity fundraise of £10-15m.

Two main possibilities come to mind on thinking through the situation in a rational way: (1) given the apparent confidence JOG and others have that the GBA project will generate significant competitive interest within the industry, it’s entirely possible JOG is already engaged in early-stage discussions with one or more potential ‘farminees’ (if there’s such a word) and that such discussions include JOG’s requirement for an initial consideration in the form of upfront cash (£10-15m??) to be payable on sign-up; or (2) some form of (perhaps) bank facility is being considered to provide financial comfort should matters not proceed as quickly as anticipated. It’s similar to what happened with Statoil back in the day:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/farm-out-of-uk-seaward-licence-p.2170-to-statoil/201608230700068382H/

Note the wording used in Thursday’s RNS:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/response-to-media-speculation/202103111209229784R/
“JOG…….notes certain media speculation in regard to the Company potentially undertaking an equity fundraise” ……………
“The Company confirms that it is in discussions regarding a fundraising of between £10 to 15 million”
Note……..“a fundraise”, not an “equity fundraise”………perhaps I’m being pedantic but in these kind of circumstances a company’s hands are tied in relation to the wording can choose to deal with leaked information. The likelihood to me is that the leak was malicious and damaging to JOG’s and its shareholders’ interests. This isn’t addressed the cerebrally-challenged types who’ve pitched up here recently with dopey and unresearched comments along the lines of: “I toldyaso”. Morons – if I were as dopey as them I’d be hiding in a cupboard somewhere, not adverting to the world at large how dopey I was. JOG has to establish who’s responsible for the leak and get rid of whichever of its advisers is responsible. I know which one my money is on.

......contd in following post........

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