London South East | The UK's favourite investor portal.

I don't see any evidence of stake building, MPO818 but wdik? Can't really see why there would be as JOG doesn't appear to be for sale and hostile activity seems unlikely.

What's likely to emerge and when is about as clear as mud to me. I hope it's clearer to JOG's directors and doesn't involve betting the ranch on being there when first oil flows, with no readily identifiable income for several years, except equity raises and debt. Hopefully sense will prevail and shareholders will be well rewarded for their patience and forbearance, in a timescale that's relevant to them.

dyor

It seems possible to me that the picture might not be bad as many are painting. We can’t say with any certainty whether or within what timescale a farm-out partner will emerge, or on what terms agreement will be reached. Nor can anyone say with any certainty one won’t. Regardless, it’s impossible to think, however, that those at JOG’s helm believe that with only one asset (the GBA) they can keep things going for more than 5 years with no income hitting JOG’s bank account. Even if it was able to borrow the funds to keep going it would be folly. As for issuing more shares, just shout “HUR” and any silly talk would quickly stop.

JOG has a small but highly-motivated and very skilled workforce (below director level) of no more than a dozen (?), most of whom have been significantly rewarded with share options. The key employees have been there since the outset. What would they do for the next however many years, with or without a farm-in partner signed up? AB has around 600k shares and the same again in options. RL has more shares and the same options. VG has very few shares he’s paid for himself but 250k in options. The non-execs have options, MS has bought shares in the market on several occasions – good on him. None of the above will be keen to fail. The GBA is imv too big for JOG, with or without a big partner. It might be their view too.

To me, the way to go is sign up a big partner to pay for most of Phase 1 then go hell for leather to get an FDP approved. Put it out that JOG’s shareholders wouldn’t be averse to considering an offer that adequately reflected the Company’s valuable, funded to production reserves, plus drill-ready resources and it's 'job done''.

I’m just presenting different scenarios. I can’t say it’s anything like what will eventually emerge from the fog. And no-one can say it isn’t. Just as I or anyone else can’t say the doomsday scenarios presented by others won’t turn out to be spot on.

JOG’s main men didn’t get higher pay last year, nor did they get a bonus. So they actually got paid about £50k less than the year before (I think it went AB£250k, RL£250k, VG£240k – you can check it out in the 2020 accounts). It’s well below the median on AIM. I’m not commenting further. I was well paid back in the day. Listed co directors generally get paid too much imv. I get naff all now except an OAP. I'd be furious about the triple lock if I knew what it was.

Some good news to end with. I called in at the Happy Eater near Buckfastleigh last Friday, on my way to Exeter to buy some snazzy new incontinence pants they sell in John Lewis. I happened to fall into conversation with the manager (of the HE), who told me he could offer a substantial discount, plus two complimentary sausages per "Happy triple whammy fry with chips" for parties of 20 people or more, if given adequate notice and slipped a tenner.

Would anyone be interested in having the £1.55p party there?

All imo - dyor

Psychology is probably to blame for a few on here of late presenting opinions as if they’re facts. Many investors here have been beaten into submission. They've reached the point of capitulation. Some have baled out; others hang grimly on, based only on the FOMO principle. JOG’s shares are about as popular as a dose of the clap. Is the latter better or worse than death by a thousand cuts, I wonder? Depends which is left untreated the longest I suppose and ultimately on whether either is treatable at all. The small-minded few reappear, telling us they've been ever-so-clever selling when they did. Time will tell.

The above is what comes with waiting patiently for 6 months for pivotal news everyone knows will determine the Company’s entire future; more importantly its realistic share price. Instead of encouragement during the long period we were told we’d have to wait for farm out news, we’ve been periodically treated to news and events that have served only to cause confusion and worry. Who can blame those who have concluded we’re being softened up for news that will send the SP to levels last seen when the much-vaunted 1st Verbier drill turned out to be a duster 4 years ago? The patience of many has now turned to anger.

I’ve already said I’m fed up with it all and I am. The lack of clarity is bewildering. I also agree with Tommy re JOG’s unjustified statements about being fully funded to farm out and beyond. It’s worse than that actually; not long before, JOG said it was “fully funded to FDP”. It seemed pretty obvious (to me at least) that JOG couldn’t realistically enter into complex and lengthy negotiations with big players on the other side who could push JOG into a corner knowing its cash was running out. Yet the pretence was maintained. Until it wasn’t and we found out the back-door way a big fund-raise was in the offing.
Incompetence and dishonesty then followed in equal measure. We all know the unholy mess created by the leak/s. The latter resulted in significant permanent dilution as a result of JOG having to issue commensurately more shares to raise the £15m said to be needed at 165p a share instead of the 210-220p that was probably planned before the dishonesty of at least one of the institutions JOG approached in advance of the bookbuild kicked in. Crass. The fact JOG (its NOMAD most probably) didn’t apparently pull out all the stops to identify the culprit/s and bring criminal proceedings was disappointing. It wouldn’t have been beyond the wit of man to work out which of those approached were likely to be guilty. Hand it over to the SFO at that stage.

So, where are we now, looking at the situation dispassionately?

I’m optimistic the shared regional electrification program won’t impact negatively on the “ongoing” farm out process (assuming "process" means "serious discussions"). There’s still the option of “going it alone” (ie JOG and farminee) although I doubt this will be the route chosen.

Tbc

Re: "does anyone wonder why Kistos is worth +£210 million?"

You can have my tuppence-worth, Abatt. Andrew Austin (AA) delivered a great result to shareholders of RockRose Energy (RRE) not that long ago, making himself <£70m in the process. Look it up for yourself: https://kistosplc.com/about-us/.........

AA will have had a big following when KIST was listed in Nov 2020 and more will have jumped on the bandwagon since.

Basically, RRE (formed in 2015) seems to have done what JOG told us at the outset (also 2015) it was going to do - RRE acquired a number of late life non-operated NS interests to generate cash. RRE sold only for the cash it had in the bank; its assets fetched virtually nothing because the acquired assets came with big decommissioning liabilities. "Who cares?" would have been the prevailing sentiment of shareholders who'd been there for the duration and made countless multiples of their investment cost when it sold.

Demand for KIST shares will have driven the SP (and hence market cap) to where it is today. People like to back winners - these are invariably streetwise types focused on generating real returns for themselves and shareholders (in that order). Possibly the most attractive thing about KIST is that it seems quite likely to generate real income within the lifetime of the people who own its shares.

Compare and contrast. JOG constantly tells us that significant shareholder value has been added since existing management took the helm. I suppose it all depends what you call "value", but I think the majority might not regard this as making much sense. In Oct 2017, JOG had a market cap of c.£40m (after the Verbier discovery). Since then, it has raised ~£40m in various placings and offers; the shares in issue have gone from c.10m to c.30m; the pool of options available to directors and employees has been increased from 10% to 15%; directors' packages have increased fourfold - and today JOG's market cap is £35m. So, on the face of it, the market is telling us the entire £40m raised from shareholders has been blown, plus £5m on top. I make no comment on why it reaches this conclusion - value and price can be two different things.

We'll find out soon enough if we've bought into the pipe dreams of (now) comfortably-rewarded people with unachievable plans - or JOG's plans do finally start to show real signs of coming to fruition. Sadly, given recent announcements about everything being delayed (by 2 years or more??) I fear there may be limited demand to buy into the story, even if a farm out agreement is secured in something like an acceptable timescale. The PR disasters of last March, the ongoing outflow of cash and the unclear messages that seem to cloud the picture rather than providing clarity, all count against us.

As you can tell, I'm pretty fed up with it all. I won't be selling though - it's been too long and I'm in too deep. I might give prayer a go - beats doing nothing.

jmofwiw/ dyor

SIGNIFICANT SHAREHOLDERS
Name Percent
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Mgt 11.41%
Interactive Investor 5.93%
Amati Global Investors 5.16%
Mr J Baldwin 4.17%
HSBC James Capel 3.76%
Janus Henderson Investors 3.71%
SVM Asset Management 3.70%
Quilter Cheviot Inv Mgt 3.57%
Halifax Share Dealings 3.30%
Barclays Wealth Management 3.19%
Ronald Lansdell 3.22%
Any person with a holding of 3% or more in any class of AIM security (excluding treasury shares)

Hargreaves Lansdown, Interactive Investor and Halifax Share Dealings are all internet brokers; the remainder (of 3%+ holders) are all LTHs. AB owns >2%. And although it's no better than a guess, I should think Tommy, PC01 & I probably hold at least 5% between us. There'll be quite a few others with holdings below 1% who are similarly longer term in outlook. All these shares will be held by internet brokers. Plus, when I last inquired, I was told that a few institutions had holdings that were significant, but were below the reporting threshold (3%).

So it doesn't seem to me to be accurate to say: " (there are) probably not an awful lot of holders, or lths shall I say, for this share". The 3%+ holders alone held 30.48% between them as at 30 June and the others I refer to above probably hold a further 20%+ between them?

I'd say JOG's shares are relatively tightly held and that a disproportionately low volume of shares traded moves the price significantly. The fact is that the 50%+ holders above can't keep adding to already significant individual holdings because the share price keeps falling - even if the shares look to them to be significantly undervalued.

There have been too many disappointments along the way and it's high time this changed. The timing of the most recent announcement was imo crass. Was the "news" (of potential significant delay in JOG's plans to monetise the GBA) necessary at all? It simply outlined the latest thinking by operators of fields within range of the GBA about sharing the cost of electrification (cable connections to Norway) between several players in the vicinity, instead of JOG bearing the full cost of a stand alone supply - which must make up a fair amount of the £1m Phase 1 infrastructure costs.

The "news" re potential electrification cost sharing could imv have been announced either at the same time as the announcement of farm-out success, or shortly thereafter. The minimum one would have expected to have learned from the most recent RNS was that most recent thinking and discussions was not expected to affect the timing or outcome of the ongoing farm-out process. Instead we get a blanket statement: "The Company's GBA Development farmout process remains ongoing".

Not sure where JOG's people were when the street-wise skills were being dished out. I'm not inclined to put my real thoughts on the situation into the public domain. Fwiw I'm not a seller. I'll be off and running in they start borrowing. Did anyone else spot it?
Thank God for Serica Energy

PC – ref your post of Tue 19:29 hrs, I’m a bit lost with the numbers you use. Eg: JOG owning 50mmboe – it’s more like 190MMboe afaik. Anyway, with no criticism expressed or implied, I’ve played around with some numbers of my own, which I hope are the same as those we've been told by JOG are the relevant ones in deciding on the likelihood of JOG bringing in an industry partner on terms that are commercially attractive.

I'll keep this as brief as possible bearing in mind some readers' low boredom thresholds.

Extraction costs over the life of the GBA are forecast to be in the region of $30pb. This is split (roughly) into $20pb CAPEX and $10pb OPEX. In simple terms, the $20pb CAPEX cost is designed to recognise the capital outlay that’s needed before the oil (and some gas) can be extracted, The OPEX cost represents the cost per barrel of revenue spend (infrastructure running and maintenance costs, wages and salaries, annual overheads etc) incurred in operating the various fields to enable the oil (and some gas) to be extracted.

The estimated £1bn Phase 1 infrastructure spend (which includes a 20% contingency) has to be seen in context. It is the key to unlocking gross cash flows of $6.5bn (from JOG’s discovered resources alone) over the lives of the relevant fields. Just to put some numbers into play, JOG has stated that when the oil flows are brought up to speed (within the first 2 years of start-up) production levels is targeted at 40kbpd. When Buchan was last producing (May 2017) natural depletion had restricted output to c.5kbpd, which was still “commercial”. But it’s little wonder Repsol Sinopec wouldn’t commit to very significant capital spend when the rig failed. It has taken 4 years for JOG to understand everything it now does about not only the Buchan Field and the oil it still holds if extracted in optimum ways, but also all the adjacent fields it now holds licences to, which it has intelligently and skilfully brought together and intends to operate as a hub.

tbc

Big buy??????
Looks to me like 2 big buys offset by two big sells. Net effect 'nil'.
Possibly internal transfers between funds (by an institution?) or maybe a PI moving shares into a SIPP. Could be just MM shenanigans. Could be anything, but it hasn't affected the price so it's unlikely to be a straightforward "buy".

6-Aug-21 13:42:54 122.30 4,088 Buy* 120.00 124.00 5,000 O
25-Aug-21 12:54:28 123.00 310,195 Buy* 120.00 124.00 381.54k O
25-Aug-21 18:18:15 122.00 -310,195 Unknown* 120.00 124.00 -378.44k O
26-Aug-21 10:21:33 120.61 1,669 Sell* 120.00 124.00 2,013 O
26-Aug-21 10:11:53 122.00 2,500 Unknown* 120.00 124.00 3,050 O
26-Aug-21 08:19:26 120.60 373 Sell* 120.00 124.00 449.84 O
26-Aug-21 08:12:06 123.25 3,332 Buy* 120.00 124.00 4,107 O
25-Aug-21 18:18:15 122.00 310,195 Unknown* 0.00 0.00 378.44k O
25-Aug-21 17:30:13 123.00 310,195 Buy* 120.00 124.00 381.54k O
25-Aug-21 15:02:20 122.00 2,500 Sell* 122.00 124.00 3,050 O
25-Aug-21 15:00:59 121.4363 5,000 Sell* 122.00 124.00 6,072 O
25-Aug-21 15:00:12 121.50 5,000 Sell* 122.00 124.00 6,075 O
25-Aug-21 14:33:26 122.355 2,500 Sell* 122.00 124.00 3,059 O
25-Aug-21 14:09:36 122.8001 4,000 Sell* 122.00 124.00 4,912 O
25-Aug-21 11:10:02 122.80001 268 Sell* 122.00 124.00 329.10 O
25-Aug-21 09:32:07 122.8001 1,639 Sell* 122.00 124.00 2,013 O
25-Aug-21 08:21:32 123.00 5,000 Unknown* 122.00 124.00 6,150 O
24-Aug-21 14:18:18 123.00 5,000 Unknown* 122.00 124.00 6,150 O
24-Aug-21 14:00:45 123.50 370 Buy* 122.00 124.00 456.95 O
24-Aug-21 14:00:16 131.00 370 Buy* 122.00 124.00 484.70 UT
24-Aug-21 13:13:36 123.00 1,934 Unknown* 122.00 124.00 2,379 O
24-Aug-21 12:48:15 122.04 500 Sell* 122.00 124.00 610.20 O
24-Aug-21 11:36:37 123.00 2 Unknown* 122.00 124.00 2.46 O
24-Aug-21 10:09:02 123.60 78 Buy* 122.00 124.00 96.41 O
24-Aug-21 08:08:43 123.60 3,465 Buy* 122.00 124.00 4,283 O
23-Aug-21 16:05:39 122.81 5,000 Sell* 122.00 124.00 6,141 O
23-Aug-21 13:30:03 122.81 1,639 Sell* 122.00 124.00 2,013 O
23-Aug-21 11:37:50 122.8001 2,000 Sell* 122.00 124.00 2,456 O

jmofwiw/dyor

I've just seen a post on here (12 Aug) made by the fount of all knowledge (FOAK):
"..JOG seems to have many problems. The departure of it's Senior partner, Equinor was a signal that all was not as it seemed. There is a lot of talk, raising of new funds ( which has diluted LTH), the need to find a partner who is prepared to put in up to £1billion to develop/rejuvenate an old field, Directors who have increased their remuneration hugely and the SP is lower now than 3 years ago". Permit me to address the relative situations of the two cos fairly and objectively. One point to start with, FOAK's views might be taken more seriously were he to understand apostrophes and write English in a recognised form. He uses "it's" (which is an abbreviation for "it is") rather than "its", which is the adjective needed. Nit-picking maybe, but an indication that someone left school "one egg short of a dozen".

JOG has problems? He hasn't got a clue why Equinor decided not to take up the GBA offer. Eq was never "JOG's "senior partner" and it was offered a working interest only in the Buchan licences. This would have made the GBA offer difficult to accept because Equinor's a political animal and would have wanted control over such large volumes of O&G in these carbon-sensitive times. JOG only has one asset (the GBA licences) and wasn't about to hand over control to a giant, to whom 400mmboe wouldn't have been that big a deal.

FOAK states: "There is a lot of talk, raising of new funds ( which has diluted LTH)". I'm not sure what he's struggling to say, but DELT diluted its s/hs to the tune of 1.4bn/550m to raise £15m to keep the directors in clover for the the next 3 years, with enough left over to do all things like work on new licences, pay the staff and overheads etc. The massive dilution didn't hurt Swindells and Nunn though - they bought precious few shares in the placing then, when things went quiet, shyly took 20m nil-cost share options each to add to the 18.7m each they already held. JOG went from 22.5m shs to 30m to see out the farm-out period and beyond.

The Cairn deal looks ok but GS hasn't said how DELT's share of the Shell licences drilling costs will be met. More dilution? Bet GS and AN don't suffer tho - options again and the sky's the limit on remuneration packages. FOAK talks of increased directors' packages at JOG, but no-one there gets paid what Swindells does (£260.5k in 2020; Nunn £245k - seems Mappin - non-exec chairman - is kept sweet via £50kpa to say "yes").

JOG owns 190MMboe of discovered resources of 33° APL light sweet crude in the CNS (pending FDP next year, when they can be called reserves). Half were called "reserves" under previous ownership. Plus it owns a further 220MMboe of decent prospects on top. How much discovered gas does DELT own?

Farm out is crucial for JOG but the £830m development cost thereafter) would unlock cash flow of $6.4bn (carbon zero to extract) thereafter.

Chalk and cheese

all imo. Dyor

Latest Share Chat

Member Info for dickupham

Followers

Following

Posts (Last 30 Days)

Posts (All Time)

Last Post

Member Since

Share Chat Post Distribution (Last 30 Days)

Activity Log (Last 30 Days)

Latest Share Chat

Member Info for dickupham

Followers

Following

Posts (Last 30 Days)

Posts (All Time)

Last Post

Member Since

Share Chat Post Distribution (Last 30 Days)

Activity Log (Last 30 Days)

Please enter at least 2 characters

No results found

Search results

Recently viewed

Trending