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Alibro - share traders need LTHs and LTHs need traders - otherwise there wouldn't be enough liquidity. In JOG's case there's not a lot anyway; the shares are thinly traded and relatively tightly held so when there important news (one way or the other) the effect is disproportionately high.

Harking back to Oct 2017 the paper value of my holding increased multiple times in one day. I top-sliced a decent number at 375p or better (the SP briefly peaked at 400p - there were around 10m shares in issue at the time, from memory).

A shade over 30m shares in issue today still leave room for hope for a very significant rise in JOG's SP if the farm out news - when it comes - is regarded as favourable. Otherwise it's tin hats back on (as usual) as the directors continue to disappoint loyal holders with average or worse news, when all the indications had suggested a much better outcome than was delivered.

I hope they make up for past disappointments with a real rip-snorter of a farm out. Hope, however, is not a valid investment strategy.

And I'm fed up with hearing about all the value they've created for shareholders. They've raised in excess of £40m from shareholders in various placings and offer since late 2017 and JOG's market cap less than this, so where is this mythical value they've added, pray tell?

Frustration has set in but with some justification I believe. I'm still confident the much vaunted farm out will happen, but am less confident the market will receive it as enthusiastically as the various brokers are predicting.

Time will tell. Patience remains the key.

f-wdyofr - idgam

sorry about any typos - can't be hacked to check

..............herds of wildebeest come to mind. The usual panic sets in and weak and/or unresearched holders behave irrationally.

The two surrendered licences didn't feature in JOG's plans through to 2028 at least, or ever in the case of Zermatt (returns shown to be non-commercial).

AB confirms farm out discussions are still ongoing (as he told us they would be months ago), so today's news tells us whoever they're in discussions with isn't interested in the licences either.

Ergo: nothing has changed. If you ask me, a smart move by JOG to surrender licences they won't exploit, .

Maybe the directors are just stringing everyone along, having invested 7 years of their life and probably most of their savings in establishing the original JOG (a Jersey registered company owned by AB, RL, family and other contacts/friends) in 2014, before reversing into the cripple known as Trap Oil (for its listing and tax losses - plus, as it happened - Licence P2170 which contained the Verbier & Cortina prospects (both of which are now described as drill-ready) and the Merribel lead (which doesn't feature in their plans either)

Talk and panic among yourselves. I've declared my position dozens of times - I'm sticking it out in the hope/belief the main JOG men are as good as their word and will continue to do their utmost to create significant shareholder value out of the portfolio of assets they have skillfully put together over the last 6 years.

If you don't believe what JOG's directors have consistently told s/hs they are confident of achieving (as have 3 brokers and a host of other people who are well-qualified to form intelligent views) then my advice would be to sell up and have a gamble on something else you don't have to put any work into understanding, eg the National Lottery or, better still, the horses.

Seems to me there's a fair chance of someone in the business regarding something like 400m barrels of 33° API in the CNS as attractive and not regarding £830m (plus 20% contingency) as an insurmountable entry cost, given cash projections indicate full return of investment inside 3 years out of future production income of $6.4bn (at an assumed BC price of $65pb).

OK, I'm a sucker and due a big fall. Good. To tell the truth, I don't give a flying f*** as I have bigger fish to fry. I hope the directors award themselves even more generously and help themselves to a few million more soft or 'in the money' options. It will at least tell me I got it wrong (again). The sooner this ends the better as far as I'm concerned. Either way will do.

Utterly clueless to issue this morning's news in the current climate of fundamental uncertainty. Whoever is advising them needs to wise up. Given the sequence of crass events and announcements since early March, during which time the co's SP has > halved, we'll be lucky to see it recover to the 250p it was at before they dropped the ball, then got greedy with options.

dyofr and muyofm - I'm just a

You again quote what's the norm, Robsroom - not what's specific to the licences awarded to JOG.

The following is what we know about Buchan & J2 (and the remainder of the licences awarded in the 31st Supplementary Offshore Licensing Round):
Three licences, four blocks
Buchan & J2
? P2498 Blocks 20/5a & 21/1a
? 100% working interest and operatorship
? Straight to Second Term (4 years)
Glenn
? P2499 Block 21/2a
? 100% working interest and operatorship
? Initial Term (4years)
? Phase A (2 years)
? Phase C Drill or drop (2 years)
Zermatt
? P2497 Block 20/4c
? 100% working interest and operatorship
? Initial Term (4years)
? Phase A (2 years)
? Phase C Drill or drop (2years)
see P19
https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/CMD-Presentation-8-October-2019-vFINAL.pdf

Seems to me that, if all else fails, JOG could put itself up for sale with upwards of 18 months still to go before it was under any pressure from the OGA to finalise plans for Buchan & J2. Maybe I'm reading things wrong, but I can't readily think where.

Your description of JOG's highly talented, extremely well motivated and experienced employees as "journeymen" is a plain insult. Of more relevance, this description of them is plainly wrong. Many have been with JOG since the outset and have shown incredible commitment to the cause. They would be an asset to any company seeking to acquire a company with the assets JOG has - in the event this was how things panned out........

.........and directors' salaries can't be that exorbitant - my income was higher when I hung up my accounting boots 20 years ago! What happened thereafter is another story. Suffice to say that whilst I am always willing to embrace risk when considering companies to invest in, I haven't gone as far as to rely on dead cats falling out of trees and failing to cause injury to guide me in my strategy. I much prefer the simple sh*t or bust approach.

No-one knows what's presently happening, which we were warned a few months ago was the order of play. Everything put forward is simply a guess. All I know is that there's bound to be a mountain of due diligence (DD) to carry out by a seriously interested party or possibly parties and this is bound to take months rather than weeks. Then the fun stuff starts - the hard-nosed negotiations. Always assuming anyone's still interested when the DD is done. No doubt the OGA will be involved - try making people in the public sector do anything in a hurry and on top of everything else there's been Covid to contend with, giving everyone the opportunity to delay.

I don't know any better than anyone else what the final outcome will be but my glass is half-full, rather than the reverse. Patience is the key word as far as I can tell. Forget short term price weakness

all imo. Dyor

I have recently been told (by someone who shall remain nameless) that I have consistently presented JOG’s GBA project on this discussion forum as being in the nature of a racing certainty. Whilst I don’t believe this is fair, it’s probably best if I clarify the situation so that the actual position is clear. If people who have read my posts have reached this conclusion, then I can tell them it has never been my intention to present JOG or its flagship project in this or any other way. I've mainly concentrated on facts and what seems logical to me. I've not been short of opinions, but this is all they have ever been. Am I a 'ramper' if I express the view that JOG will succeed and shareholders will be very well rewarded?

There are no certainties in life except death and taxes. For this reason I usually end my posts with “imo”, which should indicate to most that any opinions expressed are my own. I also usually suggest everyone should: “dyor” (do your own research) and form their own opinions. For the avoidance of doubt, JOG is certainly not risk-free, because nothing ever is, least of all investing in junior oilcos listed on AIM, where longer term fundamentals count for little and herd behaviour rules the day (certainly share prices in the short to medium term). No-one should consider investing in the O&G sector unless they understand the risks involved and are prepared to accept them. And they should certainly never invest in something because someone else writes something they like the sound of and conclude they’re onto a winner.

The fact I believe JOG has a better than even chance of producing exceptional returns for shareholders doesn’t mean it will. My investment is founded on the skills, professionalism and integrity of JOG’s senior team, all of whom I have met – some several times – for whom I have the greatest respect. I work on the premise that good people rarely fail in life. In JOG’s case the relevant “good people” also have their own futures on the line. They have sizable investments in JOG shares and have put an incredible amount of work into a project the UKCS hasn’t seen the size of for decades, which is being presented as (basically) carbon neutral, way in advance of almost all others.

I hope we won’t have to wait until Nov/Dec for news of farm-out/s. Am I imagining that we were told a while back that approval of concept (or not) was expected from the OGA by the end of July? I can’t readily find anything now in a trawl back through RNSs etc, but I think an expected date was given at some point. Can anyone throw any light on this? The submission was made to the OGA in early June. The result would definitely warrant a RNS.

In the meantime dyor and don’t blame me or anyone else if you get your fingers burnt. What are these boards for if not to exchange opinions about a whole range of subjects?

Imo/dyor blah blah etc – omg the price has gone down 3p………help!

I was out yesterday so missed all the fun. Why a few small holders selling for whatever reason - sparking the MMs to do what they always do; ie drop the price a lot to panic a few more nervous or uninformed holders into selling, thereby increasing volume and making themselves a spiv’s crust – should cause the outpourings of grief that were evident in the posts I read, escapes me.

What seems to have started these outpourings is the notion that the directors should be making some kind of reassuring announcement (eg: “don’t worry lads and lasses, we have oodles of interested people crawling all over our data so we’re expecting a brill deal anytime between now and Christmas”) combined with the equally daft notion they should be buying shares in the market when its highly likely they’re in a closed period pending an announcement they’ve either done a deal or they haven’t. Silly.

Nothing has changed as far as I can tell. It’s hardly surprising that the whole process (farm-out, sale, whatever) is taking so long (we were warned in advance it would take 8 months; they’re now saying by year end) given the volume of data that’s been put together on everything to do with the GBA – particularly Buchan – by JOG’s team since the licences were relinquished by Repsol Sinopec in 2017. This work includes most recently the results of 32,000 hrs of work put into the concepts by JOG’s people and external consultants – all of which will be subject, along with the rest, to due diligence. No-one was ever going to come along, have a chat, cast an eye over whatever is in the data room then shake hands and say: “count us in”. There’s £800+m involved in Phase 1 alone (plus a 20% contingency to take it to £1bn) and the means of recovery of the oil (and some gas) is different to anything that’s ever been seen in the past.

Some people use the £1bn number to frighten holders and others into thinking this will scare away all potential suitors. But the £1bn has to be seen in context. It isn’t £1bn for a start; it’s 5/6ths of this because a 20% contingency was added to the actual estimated Phase 1 cost. Whatever inspired JOG to do this escapes me, but it strikes me as a bit naive. Why not add 10 or 15% and keep the cost below the billion mark, which it seems pretty obvious was always going to be a controversial number?

I don’t know what the latest NPV applied to JOG’s O&G assets would amount to; I guess it must be close to $2bn with the added resources and oil prices as they are. What many don’t seem to appreciate, however, is that the estimated $2bn NPV is AFTER the cash spend needed to get to production. In simple cash terms, we’ve been advised that Phase 1 alone will generate pre-tax cash flow of $4.7bn with a BC price of $65pb, this increasing to $6.2bn @ $75pb. Rockflow Resources will have put together these numbers, not JOG, afaik.

https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/03/02230445/CS-RNS-3-March-2021-vF-website.pdf

tbc

What has Equinor “walking away” got to do with anything, vk? There are many things that might have caused it to do so, none connected with GBA’s commercial appeal. The most likely reason (imv) it didn’t take up JOG’s offer is that it wouldn’t have been operator. Being a political animal >60%owned by the Norwegian Govt (which wears a very green hat when it’s expedient to do so) Equinor not having control over when and how the oil got lifted was probably seen as much too risky. Imagine the biggest development in the CNS for decades being brought onstream just as Equinor is announcing its latest wind turbine development on top of the Alps, in its ongoing heroic efforts to save the planet.
You say: “No doubt prospective partners will have access to the same information that Equinor did who we know walked away”. What on earth are you talking about? Equinor “walked away” just after JOG was awarded the relevant licences, before any work of any kind had been done to prove up GBA’s resources. What about all the work put in since then by Rockflow Resources, culminating in a CPR giving JOG (with far fewer resources than it has now) a NPV of $1.3bn, with full payback inside 3 years? And what about the work put in by Schlumberger corroborating (and more) what RR had to report? And the little matter of 32,000 hrs of painstaking work (part of it spent going back through 36 years of production history to provide a much better understanding of the dynamics of the field and derisk the whole thing moving forward) spent by JOG and externally recruited consultants on the design concepts?
In light of the above are people expected to take seriously your sweeping comment: “JOG has zero chance of attracting one or more partners as I don't think in the current climate anyone is going to stump up £1 billion+ to bring the project to fruition”. It may have escaped your attention, vk, but the current climate is just fine – deals are springing up all over the place. And reference the development cost, it’s £1bn to generate a great deal more. Even at $65pb the project was forecast by RR to generate enough cash for full “payback” inside 3 years – and then go on to generate a further $5bn on top. This information can be found in many news releases and from info on JOG’s website, particularly in various presentations JOG has publicly made. What makes you think you know more about the real situation than dozens of incredibly highly qualified people who have put the whole thing together? You have no credibility, vk. Why not try reading something worthwhile before you next grace us with your presence? Eg: https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/03/02230445/CS-RNS-3-March-2021-vF-website.pdf

tbc

Longboat Energy (LBE) listed on AIM in Nov 2019 and raised £10m via the issue of 10m shares at £1, with £0.8m of these going to the founding directors (all formerly with Faroe Petroleum, which fell to a £641m hostile bid from DNO, a Norwegian producer, earlier in 2019) and the balance of £9.2m being taken up by institutions including the ones in the linked document. More money has been raised since; see below: https://longboatenergy.com/major-shareholders/

So, on admission, LBE had £10m (not for long, directors have to be paid) but no other assets apart from its people and a plan. There's more info below, but the general idea being sold to punters is that Faroe’s (now LBE’s) directors, all of whom left pdq after DNO got to 52% and capitulation followed, can do the same as they did in Faroe, making shareholders a fortune (again) in the process.

The latest is that LBE has raised another £35m via a bookbuild. It's being used to farm into a number of prospects (mostly drill ready) being operated by 3 much bigger players (inc Equinor). LBE's working interest in the prospects will vary between 9% and 25%.
https://longboatenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Longboat-Investor-Presentation-June-2021.pdf

Still to pay? LBE’s share of the drill costs. But don’t worry too much about further (near-term at least) fundraising (dilution) because:
“Longboat has arranged a NOK 600 million (£52 million) Exploration Finance Facility ("EFF") provided by SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA and ING Bank N.V. The EFF finances 74% of exploration expenditure, reducing the working capital Longboat requires to fund the exploration portfolio. The EFF will be available for drawing from January 2022 until the end of 2023 with a final maturity in 2024. The Proposed Fundraising and EFF, alongside existing cash resources and Norwegian tax refunds, will be used to finance the consideration costs of the Farm-Ins and initial seven wells in the drilling programme, as well as the acquisition of certain seismic data and corporate costs”.

I won’t go on. I’m sure LBE’s a good investment and that I’ve missed something important somewhere. They may very well end up with WIs in some pretty decent discoveries, but what about risk? I have to say though that, based on what’s happened in JOG, LBE actually discovering oil could seriously damage its shareholders’ wealth. It’s probably best for everyone if LBE’s directors just keep talking about the future a lot - it worked in JOG for quite a while :-).

LBE's talk so far has taken its market cap (and we all know the market’s never wrong - cheers VK) to £38m - £5m less than JOG's. No oil + no cash + £52m debt = £38m…………………apparently.

Is there food for thought above as to why JOG is so unloved? Is it just about funding? Guess we'll just have to stay patient until the day of reckoning arrives.........then we should find out

dyor

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