Member Info for dickupham

"Where are those 4 legged pointy ears white things"............

..........a few of them post on here from time to time telling us JOG is overvalued. My personal view is that risk has been built into the price to a ridiculous extent. Would a decent sized player prefer to pay JOG $1 a barrel for the discovered resources and 50c a barrel for the prospects (in an extreme situation for JOG) or fork out (say) $30m-$50m to drill a few exploration wells looking for oil that's unlikely to match JOG's 33° API light crude that will tie into the hub planned for Buchan (with others contributing to the cost).

$1 per barrel for the discovered oil, plus 50c pb for the prospects would land JOG something like
$300m - say £200m. Not far short of £10 a share.

Who with any credibility can say JOG is overvalued with a market worth of £29m? Not that AB/RL are likely to be giving away for next to nothing what they've so skilfully put together in what looks to me to be an incredibly attractive package.

I reckon a few recent sellers are going to be kicking themselves before too long.

Good.

dyor - as usual.

........that worked well, PC - knocked the price back nearly 3% :-)

The proles set the price because they're behind most of the trades being done. For some reason the institutions don't want to know about JOG - guess it falls below their radar. wdik?

I thought AB told us on 29 Sept:
" In the lead up to the year end, we can look forward to further updates from our team in respect of:
1. Finalisation of the development plan for the GBA
2. A comprehensive update on the exciting near field exploration potential of the GBA demonstrating the upside potential to the development project
3.Progress on area collaboration with regional operators for both production volumes and power solutions
4. A full ESG report integrated throughout our corporate and project plans.

We've had 2 above but nothing else (that I can find). Promises really shouldn't be made and broken so quickly. Trust is easily lost. Concept select was originally supposed to happen last summer. Typical of the industry - months turn into years all too often. GBA becoming a producer won't affect me. I just hope certain people's ambitions are single-mindedly focused on selling to a bigger player for a stack sooner rather than later and settling for retirement, a mansion and a yacht or two in some offshore tax haven (eg Jersey, although the weather's better elsewhere).

Assets are worth what other people are prepared to pay for them - nothing more and nothing less. I stood up in court often enough as an expert witness on business valuations. In most of the cases I was involved with the fair' value was used as a basis for settlement. In the stock market the situation is different because most punters (which is what they are) don't either understand or care about fair value. They focus only on price and momentum.

Warren Buffett's theory (which has worked out in spades for him and those who follow him) has always been to invest for the long term in good companies that are in his view undervalued, then see the fundamentals come to the fore.

He doesn't invest in AIM-listed oil juniors with ten shillings in the bank.

We need certainty of funding and we've been waiting too long

GLA
dyor

Imagine owning both Trap Oil AND XEL..........

.......why do you think (effectively) selling an interest in proven to exist 33° API in the CNS will be very hard? If this kind of opportunity is passed up, what's the point?

dusterinmong - I always try to look for the positives.

With XEL I reckon the lesson were worth the £300k I dropped.

I'll never be forgiven for the £30k I persuaded 'er indoors to 'invest' in XEL.

Imagine owning both Trap Oil (in spades) in a sparsely populated portfolio that broke world records in its focus on junior oilcos to the exclusion of anything else. I've always enjoyed risk and losses leave me unmoved. One or two well chosen ones (I've become better at choosing, adding and reducing as the years have passed) more than make up for the losses and in my book JOG has delivered 100% to date in this regard since AB &RL took control of TRAP in 2015. I bought most of my shares between Aug 2015 and March 2016.

Try to be a bit more researched about JOG and the people behind it - and a bit more positive. You never know, it might bring reward

GL
dyor

I'm under no illusions, XEL failed mainly because the oil price crashed, the oil was heavy (albeit it was said to come to the surface under its own steam, so to speak) and the group were in hock to the tune of $150m. Bentley should have been farmed out much earlier but Cole fancied himself as a king of the NS and wouldn't concede enough to see shareholders to safety. There's pretty compelling evidence to suggest Statoil offered £2 a share to sell either Bentley or the Company but, again, Cole wouldn't play.

XEL was the ultimate case of greed, dishonesty and incompetence. LSE still maintains a discussion board which is still populated by disgruntled shareholders who were tricked out of their money by dishonest and incompetent people and a system that's corrupt. I'm talking about XEL's board, the bondholders and the UK's stock markets, particularly AIM.

Apart from all the above, XEL was a great investment.

Still think JOG is like Xcite, dusterinmong?

I reckon you owe JOG's directors and this discussion forum a grovelling apology, but that's just a personal opinion.

all imo
dyor

dusterinmong...........do you think it was important that Xcite's Bentley Field contained heavy oil, when the Brent Crude price had collapsed and any number of producing and 'expected to produce in the future' fields in the North Sea, involving oil of 'normal' viscosity, were for sale at bargain basement prices?

Or that Xcite had borrowed c.$150m to 'tide it over' until it managed to find a farm-in partner to provide the funds needed for the infrastructure?

Or that the $150m (in bonds with conversion terms shareholders hadn't been made privy to involving the BVI registered UK listed parent, whose accounts were never available for full inspection, when the Bentley licence was held in the UK registered subsidiary, Xcite Energy Resources Ltd) had been borrowed from a bunch of hyenas (called hedge funds) hiding behind a corporate front in Norway. I only found out after the event, when a tame BVI firm of liquidators had already been appointed by the bondholders, that that firm not only didn't question any of the dishonest events and dealings that had taken place, but sold the parent company's (ie XEL's) interest in the subsidiary (which should have been liquidated by a UK liquidator but was never put into liquidation because Bentley was always going to end up in the ownership of the bondholders in return for debt cancellation. The process is known as "loan to own" - easy if you can rely on a BVI liquidator to help.

Perhaps the clearest sign of what a disgusting lot of cheats called "directors" were really like came when in 2010 they talked up the likely volume of reserves in Bentley they implied the next CPR would show. Then on 24 Dec 2010 (a good day to ensure no-one read it) a RNS was released revealing the three main directors (Cole, Smith and Kew) had sold shares acquired via options that landed each of them £4m. The next CPR (May 2011) showed nowhere near the reserves these scumbags had more than hinted were there, before cashing in their options. The SP crashed as all the IIs abandoned ship. It never recovered. The directors were ok though. I could write a book on everything that was either underhand or dishonest about XEL. I lost a pile, but not nearly as much as some who (literally) lost their life savings. They fell for the the misleading and dishonest crap spouted by Rupert Cole and others. I knew and understood the risks at all times (I invested in about 2013) but couldn't bring myself to sell at a loss because I believed the reserves in the UK subsidiary would be sold by a UK liquidator for enough to repay the bondholders, leaving enough to pay a decent dividend to ordinary shareholders if XEL failed. What I didn't see was the dishonesty of almost everyone involved - all made possible by a complicit OGA and a bent liquidator. The OGA fell over themselves to extend Bentley's licence by 4 years in the new hands. Quoi? XER is now called Whalsea Energy but still isn't producing.

tbc

dusterinmong - can you provide a few comparisons between Xcite and JOG so that those of us who struggle to understand things properly can make a balanced measurement of the two companies?

PC01 - if you don't mind me saying, your numbers are a bit difficult for the average village idiot to understand. Could you not make them simpler? :-)

The whole thing hinges on partnering up with a bigger player (or players) to provide the funds needed to get to production (currently scheduled for 2025). I'm hoping JOG will have been acquired well before then - perhaps after the FDP has been approved. WH Ireland have assumed that capex to develop the four core fields will amount to $1.1 billion ($9.20/barrel of oil) - JOG should provide more info as news of progress is released over the coming months.

If this opportunity doesn't appeal to any number of bigger oilcos looking to add to/replenish reserves with 33°API oil in a favourable part of the UKCS, extracted using carbon neutral methodology and delivered to shore via a purpose built hub tied into the main NS pipelines, then the NS might as well close for business.

It won't - but that's only my opinion, having done as much research as I can and formed views about the integrity and skills of the key JOG people involved in this project. To have got this far with only 21.8m shares in issue is remarkable - and for me is what makes JOG such an exciting prospects. The gearing effect will produce spectacular returns if JOG achieves anything close to its objectives. Short term cash is of course a key consideration, but any concerns on this front will quickly be put to bed on serious interest emerging from others in being part of such a big and remunerative project. JOG owns 100% of the action so there's plenty of room for negotiation - not that I'm expecting much to be given away during what should be a competitive process (to farm in, or otherwise acquire an interest in such plentiful resources and prospects).

I'm looking forward to reading your data on Xcite for comparison with JOG, dusterinmong. Please don't let us down, having made the comments you have......

all imo
dyor

........typical - it just showed up (nearly 4 hours later). Anyone would think someone didn't want positive stuff posted on here ....................

......I'll try again. I posted a short message earlier which didn't show up, despite one message (presumably the missing one) being shown as posted today.

I was just observing that the price of Brent Crude had risen to over $55pb - the highest it's been since last February: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
Let's hope the price keeps rising into the farm-out negotiations (if that's the route chosen).

I also mentioned that in its recent research update, WH Ireland said they assumed the Greater Buchan Area’s fixed platform production facility won't be capable of producing more than 28,000 barrels of oil per day. This is multiples higher than a few (self-declared) experts on various forums have been saying. The flow rates when Buchan was last producing (H1 2017) were much lower. No doubt JOG will provide more clarity when it announces "concept select" is complete.

I'm hoping for a regular flow of positive news leading up to an announcement that removes the uncertainty over funding what is a very big project (the biggest on the UKCS since Golden Eagle in 2007). I don't think much of WH Ireland's recent update from a 'realistic numbers' perspective, but are very bullish overall about JOG's prospects. They state (inter alia) that four drill-ready prospects close to the planned Buchan hub have a combined prospective P50 recoverable resources of 199 mmboe (not including the Cortina NE upside). WHI believe this "exploration running-room” will greatly increase the attractiveness of the GBA to potential farm-in partners, given the minimal incremental costs of monetizing these barrels assuming exploration success. They presently value them at nothing.

WHI ends by saying they see an exceptionally exciting 2021 for JOG.

And here we all are, tickets bought, sitting on a rocket-fueled bus that's not far off ready to go. Hope the G force will be manageable to us older sorts when it does :-). I bought 9250 more vouchers to spend on the bus (at 133.25p) on Wednesday, having received an unexpected postal order from my elderly aunt in Paignton. Am I mad? Is she?

Don't answer the above.

GLA - dyor

...........just nudged past $55pb. Highest since Feb last year; let's hope it continues its recovery into the negotiations..........
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

I meant to mention the other day that WH Ireland's recent update referred to production from the Buchan platform not being thought likely to exceed 28kboepd. A clown on the other board recently suggested it would be lucky to get to 4k - as if all the work over the past year at least was going to lead to so little.

I'm hoping for a series of announcements over the next 12 or so weeks, each bringing increasingly positive news. It has to be acknowledged, however, that "hope" is not a valid investment strategy. Dreaming is, though (Mr Nation).

GLA - dyor

Not sure if it's relevant, but Jeffrey Harris celebrated his 65th birthday in December.

It's only a view, but it seems unlikely to me he's in possession of information that's negative for SQZ. It might be that GRG's disposals are part of his retirement strategy. Had he tried to sell his shares in the market it's doubtful he'd have been able to without crashing the SP - if at all. Dealing "off-book", GRG sells for something approaching fair value (in the circumstances).

It seems unlikely to me he hasn't been made aware of SQZ's next planned move. If it was a pending sale of the company, I doubt very much GRG would be selling now, regardless of any retirement plans JH might have put in play on reaching 65. He's been an investor through thick and thin and has never wavered even when the future to many apparently seemed bleak. My guess at GRG's average cost would be in the range 20-30p per share - others might know better.

Summing up, when an individual has a big holding, practical problems arise when it comes time to sell. I have alluded above to one in particular.

On a (semi) related subject, it puzzles me why people seem to think Rockrose Energy was sold 'on the cheap'. At the end of 2019, RRE had $1.1bn of decommissioning liabilities on a collection of relatively mature assets (mostly acquired on the Marathon deal). Its financial performance (bottom line) wasn't dissimilar to SQZ's (assuming a sensible gas price) but RRE had only 5% (in number) of shares in issue vs SQZ. One announcement went: "Andrew Austin, executive chairman of RockRose, said: After careful reflection, the board of RockRose has concluded that accepting this offer is firmly in the best interests of our shareholders".

It was certainly in his best interests as he owned >27% of the shares in the Company that fetched £247m. How else was he going to be able to lay his hands on cash on £67m? No doubt he misses his executive pay of >$1.6m pa, but probably not as much as his NED colleague Benmore misses his $1.2m (inc $511k bonus - as a non-exec; there's independence for you). Mind yer fingers.

I have no similar concerns about Jeffrey Harris's share disposals but might be wrong. It will be interesting to find out in due course who the new holder/s is/are.

Upomega, re your 31 Dec post that included the little snippet: "Just tw..ts like the scum who have posted negative replies to my comments . dismay as to apathay of the serica bod of late.
Crap investment".................speaking as one of the scum (I did mildly criticise you on 23/12 but was relatively polite) may I commend you on both your etiquette and your command of English. The linked article below is for you to contemplate. I'm not suggesting anything - it's just that you seem to have such a lot to tell everyone..................
https://www.verywellmind.com/an-overview-of-the-dunning-kruger-effect-4160740

GLAL - dyor

I've now had sight of the WH Ireland research update. Brendan Long is the ANALyst.

His fair value is now 378p ps. This is based on discounting the discovered oil in GBA (except Glenn for some reason) by 87.5% of its likely full success value using a Brent Crude price of $60pb and capex cost of $9.2pb (implied total capex spend of $1.1bn). He values everything else a nothing (that's right - nothing).

Long's full success case value is assessed (using DCF modeling) at £34.19 per share.

I must roll a few dice and pick some numbers out of a hat to see what I come up with. The result would be just as valid. So there's only a one in eight chance of the GBA project paying anything at all, Mr Long? And all the rest (inc the Glenn discovery of 20m boe) is worth nothing? Have I got it right?

Then he says (words to the effect of): the market hasn't yet recognised what a compelling case JOG is putting forward and he believes a few major players will be seriously interested in buying in. He sees JOG as towards the top of the list of O&G cos with compelling growth strategies and significant value-price disconnects. He goes on to say he sees JOG among the strong sector performers in 2021.

Talking of disconnects, how about some people's minds from what makes sense?

JMO fwiw - I'm usually wrong so ignore me and listen to others instead. My money's on the result I expect but that's not saying much

always dyor. Nothing I say is a recommendation to do anything.

muyofm and offski in polski

PS: I'm still puzzled about all this oil being found in Switzerland. How the hell are they going to get all the kit up there?

Hi Ajax and thanks for your good wishes. These are warmly reciprocated (CPP).

Where did you source your info - particularly the bit about fair value of 238p a share (Rockflow Resources, JOG and qualified others have a fair value many multiples of 238p, which doesn't make sense.

Arden Partners (deeply flawed) 14 December research update put a very heavily discounted asset value per JOG share of 766p, with a price target of 600p (for some strange reason - why not the 766p?).

It doesn't cost anything to subscribe to Arden Partners "research portal" (or whatever they call it) on their website. It took me less than a minute to sign up successfully and I'm a dinosaur where IT is concerned. That said, I didn't have to contact anyone whereas I see you will need to contact someone called Andrew Simms. If you tell him you'll shortly be the owner of a few top of the range 6-bed statics in Skeggers, he'll probably send a limo to pick you up so you can sign up personally, on condition you don't object to all the photographers.

Very poor news release yesterday imv - sugar coated cr*p. Better is expected from these chaps........

HNY and GLA - always dyor

29/12/20 | 14:11 GB00BYN5YK77 250 126.88
29/12/20 | 14:04 GB00BYN5YK77 6356 121.12
29/12/20 | 13:57 GB00BYN5YK77 2240 121.12
29/12/20 | 12:22 GB00BYN5YK77 291 126.88
29/12/20 | 12:17 GB00BYN5YK77 90 126.88
29/12/20 | 10:23 GB00BYN5YK77 260 126.86
29/12/20 | 10:16 GB00BYN5YK77 11880 127.00
29/12/20 | 08:54 GB00BYN5YK77 250 126.86
29/12/20 | 08:52 GB00BYN5YK77 503 120.14

Thanks for that, Denno90. I think there'll be 4 hours of sunshine on 30 June next year. Hope so anyway :-)

Can you take a few minutes to explain how you come up with your number?

Thanks and seasons greetings to all. Hope 2021 brings you all you wish for (unless you're shorting JOG and SQZ).

Mommur - Trapoil is history. JOG backed in for the listing and the tax losses. I decided to get involved towards the end, when it became clear TRAP's remaining directors wanted it buried (via liquidation). Suffice to say they were prevented from letting it happen. The JOG team are impressive people with a fair bit of skin in the game - they're working to a plan although there are no guarantees it will happen. Arrival on the scene of a bigger player interested in a big UKCS project (the biggest since Golden Eagle) in the GBA (one of best UKCS postcodes) with 140mmboe of 33° API oil looking to increase its reserves - say 40% in return for a modest amount of MUF and a significant carry on the infrastructure cost, would propel the SP onto a new level altogether. Rockflow Resources (CP) has an asset value on JOG's shares at £42. They're trading at about 120p.

The world's a strange place at present. A saying by the economist JM Keynes can never be disputed, however: "markets can remain irrational for longer than investors can remain solvent". Never a truer word spoken. I've got shed-loads of JOG working on the principles I explained earlier. "More fool you, I can hear people saying". They may well be right - who knows. I spent a career valuing companies but that doesn't guarantee anything either because most people don't know what constitutes value - which is at least partly subjective anyway - and it's trading volume and direction of travel (ie the views of the majority prevail, leading to strong or weak demand) that set share prices.

OK - I'm irresponsible. Who cares, given my current condition? It's only money and my kids are well enough provided for anyway. I didn't get where I am today by (32 pages deleted here - Ed).................https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drlPbIWAz-E&ab_channel=BBCStudios

Have a good one, everyone. It all starts again next year...........

dyor

"Find me a better stock than this in the O&G sector for value and I'll seriously consider it"............

...........the holding I have in JOG is presently worth more than twice my investment here (which isn't small). The future is impossible to predict but a market cap of £25m for a company with 140MMstb of (mostly discovered and proven to flow 2C prospects is plain daft in my book. Watch this space.............

This isn't recommendation - I don't make them. Just saying.................!!

upomega - are you seriously suggesting MF and ACW have added no shareholder value since the BKR deal was signed? What about setting up an Aberdeen facility and seamlessly tacking on and integrating 120 former BP employees with a previous headcount of c.20 SQZ employees? Or reducing the extraction cost of gas from BKR by about 50% to its present c.$12pboe (calculated on a 'normal' level of output from the relevant fields)? How about Rhum 3? Columbus? I could go on but what's the point? What coronavirus? What demand restrictions in the industry?

Things happen in the oil & gas sector in years and decades, not hours and days. It is a sector fraught with risk - not for the faint-hearted or poorly researched investor. From a personal investment perspective I only invest meaningfully in people - not in the companies or sectors they work in. My two biggest holdings happen both to be in junior O&G companies, where I trust the directors to deliver in spades to patient and understanding investors. So far neither set has let me down. The same applies across the spectrum - clever and motivated people rarely fail in life. There's nowt wrong with ACW and MF - that I can see anyway.

Your knowledge of how companies operate and markets work appears to be limited. I won't go into the theories some put forward about SQZ's SP being manipulated - maybe they have a point and maybe not. Market makers will always be rogues of the highest order, but they can't hold back share prices forever. One can never change the fact that share prices are only ever the result of supply and demand. The Oil & Gas sector is presently (and has been for some time) about as popular with investors as a STD. A similar scenario applies in certain other sectors too. Lack of popularity leads to suppressed demand - the rest is easy to follow. It's the degree to which investment in particular unfashionable companies is evident that's important. Judge it right and you find longer term winners. It would take too long on here to explain how, ultimately, the SPs of all shares across the board end up being related to notional investment yield. In the meantime it has always puzzled me why SQZ hasn't published CPRs based on discounted cash flow projections that allow any company's NPV to be established. I'm sure this would produce interesting results in SQZ's case.

It is not the responsibility of directors of listed companies to take action to support their companies' share prices. What it IS their responsibility to is to use their best endeavours to deliver real value in the longer term to shareholders who are intelligent and patient enough to allow them the time to do so. Risk can never be eliminated, however good a company's prospects might appear to be.

Do us all a favour and stop whining will you? It's supposed to Christmas and glasses should be half full not the other way around. Hope this eliviates something or other...........

dyor

A hostile bid at the wrong price would be highly unlikely to succeed. The US-based former NED sat on his 17% holding while the SP fell to 3p, rose to 140p and he's still there fully loaded. The Hardys have held steady since accumulating 11% and didn't unload at 140p either. Axa Framlington & Cannacord hold a further 18% between them and appear to be invested for the long term. Why back an opportunistic bid when everyone knows that on 1 Jan 2022 SQZ's revenue from BKR (excluding the effect of R3) is scheduled to increase by 67% (SQZ's share up to 100% from 60% - ie a 2/3rds increase).

25% constitutes a blocking voted in an attempted full T/O and loads of PIs don't even know how to vote, let alone make the effort to register theirs. It's the % of shares voted in a GM that counts - not the number in issue.

O&G is an unpopular sector to be involved in presently, with all that's going on. All the directors can do is make sure SQZ is taking all the steps necessary to deliver shareholder value in the medium to longer term. They're unlikely to be sitting on their hands and it wouldn't surprise me if they were in ongoing discussions with a view to strengthening SQZ's position moving forward. I recall Mitch commenting he'd like to have a better spread of reserves and production between gas and oil. There are one or two interesting opportunities out there for those imaginative to spot them and come up with a deal that's good for all parties.

Talk of capitulation at 130p is daft imv - doesn't strike me as terribly helpful to others as there's every indication that the present SP is way too low. Well done those who are following WB's advice ("be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful"............"the best time to sell a good investment is never" etc)

GLAL - things should be better in 2021 (for most people anyway...........)

PC01 - in reality it's probably a combination of factors. I agree the uncertainty over funding is high on the list but so is a failure of many to understand exactly what JOG has to offer.

If bigger oilcos aren't interested in this, then the NS might as well close for new business. Exploration drills, which have something like a 1 in 20 chance of discovering oil in commercial volumes, cost something like $25m a go, plus years of assessment and planning ahead of the exercise. JOG has 140MMstb of already discovered and mostly proven to flow in commercial quantities oil, with optimum mode of extraction finalised and a hub planned to make smaller discoveries financially viable, plus ~300m of first rate, mostly drill-ready, prospects on top. All this planned in "first in class" carbon-neutral effective ways.

What price for all this if frustration were to get the better of the chaps and they decided to do something different, like sell up and retire? I forget now what the oil journal they all read is called, but a prominent advert therein along the lines: "For sale...........all the above to the highest bidder.........cash bidders only need apply"...........might yield a few times JOG's present market cap.

I'm in favour of staged parties along the way (assuming JOG doesn't "do it in one"). A hostile bid wouldn't be easy to pull off - I might be wrong but I think 25%+ voting against would act as a blocker. I'm happy to be corrected - can't be fussed to look it up as I doubt it will happen.

imo/dyor