Member Info for Dibs61

IMO a sale of Allersys is coming and a resulting significant cash boost for the company eliminating any doubt of dilution being necessary and actually 'creating value for shareholders' that oft used but least delivered phrase on AIM Sale price has to be minimum of £10m as they've already incurred R&D costs of nearly £6m and valuing the resultant IP at only £4m is conservative on my part. MC is currently £19m so not hard too see what this could do to the SP,

If they sell Allersys I would expect a SP much greater than 22p. More like 28-30p minimum.

Truro - good afternoon. Yes that is also my reading of the HCP comments. Which basically means that for all new parts the ban WILL be enforced in nine months time. And as Sisyphus highlights you would think that Airbus and their suppliers will already be planning accordingly - ahead of time. There are, as we have said, no guarantees, but HDD must be in the frame with a serious chance of winning significant business. All of which makes this stock a good punt as the addition of aerospace contracts would be a very large dollop of icing on the cake given they have solid O&G business going forward (IMO). So, from here, little downside and significant upside opportunities.

Yes there are multiple good outcomes here. The market just hasn't cottoned on yet. Still fundamentally undervalued. Quote 21 Nov RNS: "We will update the market as soon as we have a clearer understanding of IDS' intentions but as things stand, the outlook for the rest of the financial year is encouraging within our core business with revenue and adjusted profit before tax expected to be at the higher end of market expectation due, in part, to favourable currency movements"

This is still valued at £12m - yes £12m at 6.625p!!! What say you now Tom Winnifroth. You've done some pretty bad tips in your time but this one absolutely takes the biscuit. Target Price ZERO pence.

I see the broker reiterated their 2.1p SP target for the company yesterday. Has anyone got access to the note in terms of how they reach the valuation? FCF?

As notmuchinsales has pointed out very well Gilbert has once again twisted the so called 'order book' figures. I'll highlight this more closely later but as I have time and again indicated this is a big avoid for potential pi's and a big sell if you are unfortunate enough to own these. As for the factory what a joke. 'Limited processing' imminent'!! Is that to show the poor PI that's showing up this week?

I don't think you could accuse this board of being rampy rampy. Some of the LTH's too long in the tooth for that to happen! I do see potential here but the caution shown due to previous experience is both understandable and justified. But I guess you don't hang onto an investment for 10 years without believing there's going to be an 'end product' as it were. Sometimes investing is all about timing. Maybe I'm a little early still, the board were not going over the top in today's statement. But I think this is a decent price to get in at. Sisyphus said that 10% of MC is cash but it's actually nearer 16%. I think we may see a faster recovery in the Oil and Gas sector, particularly in the US, than the market is expecting. This of course would be bullish for Hardide and the pro business/infrastructure approach of Trump should be bullish too

A bit of volume today and though a bit tricky to call I'd say more than half the volume traded were buys going on the spreads at the time. But well disguised. Makes me wonder if someone is mopping up more shares. SP performance has been disappointing lately so I hope this weeks AGM (statement) is going to lift the gloom a little

Both refer to my earlier post. The cash position is nowhere near as rosy as You are thinking at first glance. Much of that cash raised is as good as spent! Why do you think the SP Is struggling?

Cautiously positive short term but more positive medium-long term Plenty of cash - £2m in bank end Sept Diversification of revenues - precision engineering revenues looking good Oil and Gas recovery looking increasingly likely US Revenues greater than UK for first time - much bigger market over there Brexit not negative for company with plenty of dollar earnings All in all a decent outlook A firm HOLD for me

Absolutely understandable sentiments of course. Especially if you are a LTH. You will know though that past performance etc etc..... I can see Truros point of view completely. I would be a fool not too. But I do suspect the worst has come and possibly passed and I think the company will impart that more positive message on Monday. There is no cash crisis as was suggested. There may or may not be a further extension to the imposition of a HCP ban BUT it's coming and Airbus etc have to plan for it. Also, if there are alternatives to Hardides offerings then that means there is an alternative to HCP out there negating the case for delaying the ban I just find it very difficult to imagine that Airbus would complete 8 years working with Hardide only to turn around at the end and say sorry zero business for you? If that's rose tinted glasses thinking then I'm guilty as charged And I'm not T20, I can sit and wait.

Timeless has been a bit tetchy here it's true. But also understandable as he's seen the SP sliding and I note it's beneath the placing price again. It's an unforgiving market. I don't agree with you completely over the cash situation. I don't think you counted the £900k (gross) they raised after year end. My assessment is that they probably have roughly £0.75m left in cash currently.' That's cashburn since June plus the €150k they stumped up for the Finland venture. That said they are committed to a further €350k expenditure on Finland in Q1 2017 and an option for a lot more later in the year. So there's no question there will be another cash call probably in early Q2 2017. All of this basically means it's not a buy for the foreseeable.

Very very well done here. It's been on my watchlist for a long time but not invested - as I made the fatal mistake of believing it's fully valued. But there's a reason for that - it's a quality outfit.

Expecting news on the Allergy business 'change of relationship' with IDH in near term. A sale or part sale will be massively beneficial to the SP. Food intolerance division is where the company makes most of its money so will be interesting what transpires. Company is undervalued with NAV at 19.1p - so earnings effectively for free and some!

Boy you must be in deep here. Kosovo not on the top of my destination list but hope it goes well for you.

Year End Results out on Monday morning. The following extract from trading update in Oct: "The Company expects to report preliminary year-end results that are in line with current market expectations with H2 seeing an improvement over H1, as projected at the time of the interim results. There are signs of a slow recovery from oil and gas markets, both from existing customers and from new opportunities. Our progress towards gaining aerospace business following Airbus technical approval is on-track and is looking positive across a range of applications for Airbus and other customers." Important takeaways from the above: Historical Results will be poor - as market has already priced in so this will not be a surprise to market "in line with current market expectations" H2 will see an improvement - this is likely to continue into current year? "Signs of a slow recovery in O&G" - currently a key market for HDD - since the trading update OPEC cut has happened so recovery secured? Positive progress towards securing Aerospace business with Aerobus specifically mentioned - could we get a further update here? I would expect to. Will the production move to US suggest the start of deals obtained from the much larger US market? The Trump effect to be positive for HDD business? These are just pointers and nothing in the bag - yet - but Monday could see the start of the worm turning and a recovery IMO

Been reading the Hardman Report again. They point out that ODX trades currently at a discount to NAV. This gives a further indication of how the market is fundamentally undervaluing this company. The NAV is 19.1p This means there's effectively no value placed on earnings based on this metric. If the company was bought out it would be substantially above the current price. If they sold the allergy business,as Hardman say, it would provide 'substantial resources ' to 'accelerate growth strategy' Business substantially undervalued. Sooner or later the market will adjust accordingly

Looks from the trades like we've edged back under 3 on the mid. Volume is key here. Some good posts. Even Aunboy has made some reasonable points albeit IMO overly pessimistic.

No cash reserves? Need something very quickly? The company raised £1.63m at the end of September. That's cash in the bank. The cashburn will not be that high - Virginia facility employs 29 people! I am not seeing anything that indicates a short term concern over cash in view of the funding completed less than three months ago. Indeed I see positive indications on several fronts.