Member Info for DiamondGeazer

I think the difficulty many face is why buy now when the drilling doesn't start until April, maybe May. Except, (and I accept its just speculation on my part), Anglo's full year results are out on the 22nd February, so I would assume Arc wouldn't be allowed to share 2024 drilling programmes with the market (even if they are irrelevant to the SP of a company as big as AA), until that day or soon after that (I wouldn't be surprised if Duncan W. talked about exploration in Zambia in his results presentation). So fingers crossed, we may get drilling plans within a week. I would also be more than very surprised if Anglo's exploration team haven't already agreed their plans for Zambia in 2024.

If my guess is right, I don't think we will ever see the SP lows we have now, or over the next 5 days, again... but it will take news on the drilling plan to generate the interest to move us up.

Ac123, I think it was very confusing for many over the last couples of years because Arc press releases and investor calls continually referred to the USD3.5m being paid to Arc, but we hold out stake in a JV with Kopara in which we hold 67%, so we only get that percentage of the cash, hence USD2.3m last November, and USD670,000 in November (our share of the USD1m Anglo will pay).

In my experience, most large companies (with Dec year end) will need to have their budgets (and therefore drilling programmes) approved at Board level by end-February (early March latest). So my guess is that we and Kopara will known very soon what Anglo's drilling programme for this year is and that should mean an RNS within the next four weeks at most. I can only guess that the drilling done by Anglo up to mid December was actually to understand the rock structure, rather than to find copper, which might explain no assay results, but any detail about the future number of drill rigs...etc should provide some much needed momentum to the SP.

I am also assuming that actual drilling commences mid to late April, and though we may not get assay results from that drilling until June earliest, I think that the mere fact Anglo are drilling with multiple rigs should add some further momentum.

Against that, there is the uncertainty over our cash position. We would have received our USD2.3m (our share of the USD3.5m) on the signing of the deal, but we had 8 months of BoD directors salaries to pay, as well as deal costs (and the following 3 months operating costs) to pay. What position that puts its in now, I simply don't know, but it would have helped if we knew how much we spent on doing the JV in legal fees and Rothschilds - I don't have a problem with large fees - they after all the cost of doing business, but I have a rule for small caps - when the BoD don't share information, it normally means its worse than you thought! Without knowing the deal fees, I'm having to guess but ahead of us getting the next USD670,000 tranche in November, I think (if we pay all our bills) we'll need new sources of funding around June/July.

Maybe that's one of the reasons the SP is so extraordinarily low, and it seems ridiculous to be at these levels. But its always darkest before the dawn, and if it's a trade off of drilling news versus cash position, that's the joy of being a junior explorer!!! GLA and DYOR.

Wow, lucky this BB has zero impact on the SP, because reading it after a couple of weeks and its as poisonous as ever - with still no room for reasoned debate.

Lantier, just to clarify your point; the BoD did not give up their salaries, they simply deferred them, and almost certainly took the total amounts due when our share of the Anglo cash came through. That shouldn't be a problem, and when that cash came through we would have also had to pay substantial legal bills and Rothschilds fees. Once again, there's no way around that for anyone.

Major Tom, I don't agree about the BoD taking shares instead of salaries; I suggest that having "surrendered" their shares in above 6p already, that to then pay themselves in shares at half that price would have caused even more angst. As it is they have made it clear that the cash from the share surrender doesn't need to be paid out immediately; but for me that is disingenuous, because this BoD still intend to get paid when it suits them.

The BoD deferred their salaries, and didn't pay for the Botswana assays... all to preserve cash while the deal was being finalised. You shouldn't be able to criticise that... except for one very important factor; what it says to me is that they already knew the deal wasn't going to be signed for many months (and its inconceivable that their lawyers wouldn't have told them this), yet they wanted us to know that it would be "weeks not months". That to me is this BoD through and through, they value promoting far more than being honest with investors. I imagine Board meetings are a complete lovefest of self-congratulations and violent criticism of any outsider who has questioned their brilliance!

I'm not a fan of Botswana because I feel it is driven by the BoD looking to justify their salaries, because otherwise they aren't doing anything; hope I'm proved wrong, but fear I'm not. This talk about meeting with Anglo to agree the drilling plan for this year is all smoke and mirrors; Anglo decide what they are going to do and simply inform us.

Overall I was definitely wrong to predict that the SP would remain higher once the deal was struck, but can't see any reason for the SP to go on a run now until the (very numerous, if what I hear from Zamiba is correct) drill rigs start turning in April. Then we put our trust in Anglo.... thank god.

btw Fulmar, I throughly enjoy your ceaseless optimism!

Hi all,

RE bringing in strategic partners was always a very long-shot because they must have been able to see how weak was Bluejay's negotiating position; and they could almost buy the whole company for as much as they were being asked to invest for 50% of any single asset. I am simply hoping (because 'hope' seems to be what we are running on now) that the so-called strategic partners RE said he had found, will pony up the odd million here and there to buy 100% of the asset they were negotiating to invest a few millions in drilling to earn up to 50%. I cannot see them offering more then; we are currently on life support and all our eggs are in the single basket that Rod M knows that Kobold's intentions are good.

My concern with Kobold (and I hope I'm wrong) is why would they can spend the USD11.6 million to keep 51% of Disko when with our tiny market cap , they have the option of spending the same and possibly getting most of the whole company, and then of course they would own 100% of Disko.... not that I would sell at that price.

What a terrible state of affairs. GLA.

Thanks, Stopthebs and Bigbloyblue,

Just to explain further why I feel the Botswana assay issue illustrates an important point of principal.

For whatever reason, NvS and the BoD of Arc got the timeline win how long the deal would take very wrong, and as we now know it took in total seven months. So be it; most of the delay was outside their control. But (and this is key) at some point soon after that call (I’m assuming that the statements they made on the call were in good faith), NvS and the BoD either realised (or were told) that closing the CPs was going to take far longer than they had told the market – it was going to take months not weeks, and they decided they had to preserve cash, including not paying for the Botswana assays.

But at no point did they tell their shareholders that – that compared to their public statements, they knew that the timeline to the most important deal in Arc’s history had been materially impacted; that they no longer intended publishing the assay results… until months later when the deal was signed. It's difficult to conclude that they didn't want us to know.

If the copper’s there, I believe Anglo will find it; if it’s not, so be it. Like all of us, I invested based on my own calculation on risk/reward. But what we have every right to expect is that the BoD to always make sure that they have told us the truth, good and bad; that we’re never in the position of getting blindsided by something we have been kept in the dark about. On the basis of their repeated track record, I don’t trust them to do that.

I've never doubted AA's technical ability to find a tier 1 asset, but I still have serious concerns about how the BoD of Arc communicates with its owners, not least on Botswana. I would guess that we will get as RNS with the Botswana assay results tomorrow morning, ahead of the investor meeting.

I think it worth remembering the NvS's comment in the investor call on the 20th April 2023 “…Botswana, we’ve got assays that have been held up in the Lab in South Africa for a number of reasons, but we hope to process those results and come back to you with the results of that over the next few weeks…”.

The way Labs work is that you send them the samples/core, they do the analysis, but usually they don't release the results (for small companies anyway) until you've paid. We were told six months later that that payment wasn't made to conserve cash, but since we haven't been told otherwise the actual analysis should have been done months ago and was just awaiting payment (after the 10th November). A month later we are still waiting, which is why I can't see an RNS not coming out tomorrow.

Whether it be Reme's pilot plant we never heard of again, or there being no reason to settle with MM, then we settled, or the "weeks not months" in April this year, or the claims that the full USD3.5 million was coming to ARC, or our Botswana assay results... the BoD do themselves no favours in how they treat investors with distain. They may (and often do I am sure) have reasons to change their mind, and with some of their forecasts, I didn't think they are intentionally being misleading; I think they never actually knew, but they never bother to explain to the people who have invested their precious money in the company why they changed their minds or got a prediction so wrong, which is one of the reasons I think the trolls get such traction here. Their investor communication is as bad as how mining companies in the 1980s used to treat shareholders, yet it's not exactly difficult to get it right. Do I think the AA deal was good? Yes, superb. Do I trust this BoD to communicate both good and bad news honestly to its shareholders? Sadly, No. Do I trust them to act in the interest of all shareholders equally? No. I think that the lack of trust is one of the two key reasons (the other being the market's complete lack of appetite for small mining shares) why our SP lags so much.

GLA DYOR

The responses you've received is one of the examples why this BB has become so toxic from both trolls and rampers.

Ray, the best answer is probably that none of us have a clue. If you believe tweets from Ruffles, then Nick vS has been in Zambia for two weeks already. If you think Fulmar has good insight, then the JV will be signed by the end of this month (i.e. Monday or Tuesday) and more than that, we are drill ready.

Most people are in this share, and have put up with misleading comments for so long solely because they believe Anglo's experts will find a tier one copper asset, but I would also suggest that most people no longer believe a word our directors say, so with this share, only believe something when it has actually happened, not when the directors tell you it will. As to timing, it would be nice if Fulmar was right, and I hope he is, but I'll believe it only when I see it.

Fulmar, Thanks.

1. Great; we agree.

2. That would be good news indeed, and after all the waiting, if you are right, that changes a lot of things on the positive side.

3. One day, would be pleased to hear another explanation.

If they do any necessary capital raise next year when we are already drilling and at above 6.9p, that will get rid of a lot of my angst!

atb!

Hi Ant1986 and Bigboyblue, I completely respect your opinion, but just want to suggest why I don't think that can happen.

1. Anglo will be making an immediate payment which will cover a short-term liabilities (except the pay-out due to directors).

2. It also never been likely (despite what Arc has said) that a company like Anglo has been simply sitting around with unused drilling equipment waiting to start drilling immediately after this deal has closed. Drilling equipment takes time to hire and best guess is they are booking up drills now for the start of the next dry season. If we are lucky, there will be a handful of drills they can get hold of sooner from companies not able to continue drilling during the fast approaching wet season (and that would be great) but for the bulk of the drilling equipment, I would suspect we will have to wait for the dry season. While we will all be thrilled with a big SP bounce on the deal completion news, I would be (pleasantly) surprised if the SP sat at 6.9p or higher for the next coupe of months with drilling only starting in May next year. Why 6.9p?

3. Because (lastly and most importantly) our Directors cashed in the vast majority of their share options (75 million shares) in March 2021 at 6.9p... when they and Anglo American were under an Exclusivity Agreement... i,e, DURING WHAT SHOUD HAVE BEEN A CLOSED PERIOD - which only lapsed on July 9th that year. The Directors knew more than the market, and one can only assume that by surrendering their options (rather than exercising and selling them, which they wouldn't have been allowed to do) they could get round the rules banning trading in a closed period. So I think that the idea that they could now issue shares at below the 6.9p price they gave themselves, when the single biggest liability is that payment... would be morally bankrupt.

For those three reasons, while I expect they will need to do a capital raise next year, I don't think they will do a short-term cash raise.

Except its not 69 percent because the RNS on 20th April this year states "...its subsidiary, Unico Minerals Limited (Arc Minerals 67% shareholding, with the balance held by Kopara Investments Ltd)".

This is extraordinary.

Actually apologies. I've just checked the Annual Report and apparently we own 69 percent of Unico... "On 12 May 2022 the Company announced that... Arc and its partners holding the balance via Unico Minerals Ltd (“Unico”) in which Arc will have a 69% interest with the balance held by its partners"... not sure why I thought is 67 percent?

I note that the 2022 Annual Report states rather strangely "At 31 December 2022, the Company held interests in the share capital of the following subsidiary companies.... "Unico Minerals Limited. British Virgin Islands. 100% Holding Company". to explain that I would hazard a guess - as shown by the RNS's during 2022 which stated that the USD3.5 million would be paid to Arc, that none of the directors noticed until this year (or much more likely, their legal DD team pointed it out before the signing in April) that Arc couldn't get all the cash since it didn't own 100 percent of the licences, and tried to sneak that news out.

Hi Jarv55. The total payment is USD3.5m as you know. That gets paid to Unico of which we own 67 percent (USD2.3m), using an exchange rate of 0.8 (I haven't checked the rate recently) that is £1.8m).

Caddy1, Why don't you e-mail him and say that, after all we've just passed the 6 month mark after his infamous "weeks not months" comment. I think the appallingly low SP is an accurate refection of investors concerns about our non-existent cash position but more importantly a complete lack of trust in both the abilities and honesty of our BoD. The deal which will, I am sure, still happen at some point, is going to come more as a relief than anything else and with our short-term liabilities probably stacking up at at least £100,000 a month (before we pay deal fees), we are already eating into the £1.8m we will get from Anglo. Its unlikely that drilling will now begin until the end of the rainy season, so we have another six months to wait. Even after this deal happens, if anyone wants to put up a motion at the next AGM to get rid of this BoD, you have my votes.

I expect a reasonable SP uplift on the news, but even if the drills still need to be booked and drilling doesn't start until the dry season, I suspect that sellers will be easily outweighed by new buyers and possibly even institutional money which is quite prepared to wait for however long it takes to get those drills into the ground. All they need is to see the final deal signed. And given that so much work has been done already on the licence areas, and Anglo will be using multiple drills, not just one drill like we used, I expect exciting results quite quickly once they start.

Thanks for your (as usual) constructive and considered reply.

Share price is now down almost 50 percent from the deal being announced in April!

Do any LTHs have any view why the SP has fallen further? As you can see we are near the lows of July 2020 and January 2022. It seems unlikely to be a MM squeeze so potentially close to a deal (and neither we nor they know exactly when that could drop).

Is it because the market thinks there is no option but for Arc to have a capital raise if the deal doesn't drop right now? From a numbers perspective its blindingly clear we are out of cash, but I would be stunned if the BoD left us in the position of having to do this at this level after cashing in most of their own shares at 6.4p and the statements purportedly made about no need for a cash raise. I'm not selling, but hoping for a different explanation?

In the past I've stated my concerns about the Botswana assays, Arcs comms and our worryingly low cash position, but this share price is surely already discounting utter disaster, so on that basis, I have found a few pounds and purchased more shares (not many - I could only afford a few). I can't see the BoD letting us get to the position where we have to do a cash raise at these levels, so I have discounted that possibility, however short of cash we obviously are. For those who say "Anglo should cut their losses", they have NO losses; they haven't spent anything yet, and like us are just waiting for the deal to finally close.... and the copper in the ground hasn't gone anywhere.

Well looking at the interims we seem to be living on Life Support, but that was the best video interview I've seen. It seems that the Company was in an even bigger mess than many of us knew when RE took over. If we can survive, and if RE can bring in additional funding through new partnerships, then the light at the end of the tunnel may indeed be just that... and not what appears to be an oncoming train.

I was impressed about the early action taken on management salaries. Lets hope we get through the next three months... and if we do, well done RE; and 2024 could be very interesting... if we can just survive.