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Bulent 74 I'm sure we all have some optimism for Wolf but realism is also required. Nobody, and not even you can take account of the future price movements of any commodity because we don't have a crystal ball that works, and I would say that Tungsten is one of the least predictable metal because the main source is China. To state that prices are continuously going to rise is not a fact and not a basis to justify profitability. There may be Tungsten shortage at the moment, but China could relax its new quality standards at any time, and Wolf's own increasing production may diminish supply tightness somewhat. Please be more accurate on what you mean by this year. To me, this year means Wolf financial year to end June 2018, and as far as I can see with the facts and figures available a trading profit will be very difficult to achieve. If you think that Wolf will make a profit to the end June 2018 please could you provide some of your own researched figures to demonstrate to us all how this will happen in your next post, and I am sure we will all be very appreciative. Perhaps the only poster who believes that I believe Wolf is failing is Bulent 74, and if it was to transpire that Wolf degenerates towards failure I would post my opinion on that position and advise people on this board to sell their holdings as I would myself, if you read all of my 60 odd posts I have not advised that course of action to date and have always been as positive, realistic and factual as possible about the progress of Wolf which has now reached a critical point in its development.
As usual Richam provides us with viable and accurate potential figures, and a range of what we could expect in terms of production figures, the only comment I would add is that Wolf, in their 31 October Form 5b Cash Flow have already predicted costs of A$31m for this quarter so the A$25m Richam has used could be on the low side. As Ajok says Wolf have disappointed us previously on figures, and I consider anything less than 600 tonnes of tungsten concentrate and 50 tonnes of tin concentrate production for this quarter will not go down well with the market. Remember in terms of Wolf financial year we are at the half year now, the first quarter loss was A$ 17m and this quarter will also be a loss. It will take a lot more in the second half of the year to approach break even, and it will only be possible if the cost base is reduced and production increases again. Lets hope Wolf present us with something to provides some confidence to all investors.
Thanks Hartlepoolbob, just to let the pack know Metal Bulletin European APT today is now $313-320 per MTU up from $310-318 per MTU last week.
Ran out of words!! -----------------will be key in the Report.
Hello Again All As I was the first to wish you all happy Xmas in my last post on 1st Nov, let me be the last to wish you all Happy New Year after my self imposed exile from this board!! My thanks to WD43, The Wolf of GL3 and Cashwell for their kind comments in November, I had not really considered that people may just be reading and not posting. It makes the idea of posting accurate and informative information more important so we can all decide if we think it is right to buy, hold or sell Wolf shares, surely the object of this exercise here. So what has changed in the last 3 months? Not much if you look at all the sniping and ******** that is still going on!! But seriously, we have had nothing factual from Wolf itself to confirm the current production on site, and the only Process Guy and Richam have given us some clues as to potential production from shipping notes and estimate of what to expect from the December quarter in terms from income/expenditure based on the notes. Thanks you two, at least you are posting something constructive and trying to assess the future which gives us all something to consider. We will know in a couple of weeks what has actually transpired at Wolf, but if the shipping notes are right, production may have doubled to around 700 tonnes of concentrate in the quarter, income may be around A$20m, but expenditure was forecast at around A$30m, and debt repayments commence now in January, so you don't have to be a maths genius to work out Wolf will report a loss of approx A$10m for the December Quarter. Wolf will will need to increase production by another 50% in the coming quarter to get to nameplate production. The fact is the loss will be reducing from A$17m in the September Quarter is good, but unless Wolf can confirm they will be achieving nameplate production of 10 tonnes of concentrate per day or 900+ tonnes of concentrate per quarter, they will not be making enough revenue to be breaking even (unless costs and overheads are cut) and will need more financial input. The APT price, which was at US$275 per mtu in early November after falling back from $315 in September has recently recovered again to $315 per mtu. This is good news, and the Chinese environmental improvements have cut supply. The increase in world trade figures are also bullish for tungsten and the price could rise further, but to what level is only speculation. The Wolf share price fell back from its 6p ish spike and was hovering above its 150 and 200 day moving averages in November, and subsequently fell below those moving averages as the price dropped through the 4.5p level in December to 3.5p. Since December 30th the price has been mildly bullish again, rising back to the low 4 -4.5p and currently rests on the 150 and 200 day moving averages today. Other technical indicators are now positive. A good Activities Report may help the share price more. Debt is still the primary issue, and how Wolf are to manage it will be key in t
Considering the alarm and upheaval my last post about future financial possibilities has caused, I think it is time for me to sign off this board for a while. Hope the new brush is able to sweep the old year out of the door on 31st December and start the new year as the picture presented to us. Time will reveal all.
Well I've done the maths as well, and figures richam has posted are right, except I make the overall recovery 34%, but its not worth considering when by now it should be at least 20% better at around 55%. What I cannot square is that the report states that throughput is now 12,370 t daily, tungsten concentrate production is 10.48 t daily and kiln produced 565 t in September. If the recovery was 50-55% the mine would be at nameplate on those production figures. The only answer I can see is that what is coming out at the end of processing cannot be to specification standards for sale, and hence has to be reprocessed again if and when the kit is able to achieve the correct recovery rates. The loss for the quarter was A$ 17.5m, so on that basis with similar expenditure projected for December quarter, production would have to treble in the next two months to reach nameplate and a break even situation. I have always been optimistic about Wolf achieving their stated aims, but as a Brussles negotiator says time is running out. Without nameplate production of approx. 900 tonnes of tungsten concentrate per quarter by December Wolf will struggle to cover its running costs and service loan payments which start in January 2018. The repayments for the �55m subordinated loan have moved to 15% on 21 October 2017, as well as outstanding senior debt of �64m with repayments of 4.25% + LIBOR. There is around �10m in escrow accounts related to site works and landscaping which is due to be released on satisfactory conclusion of those works, and in the Annual report Wolf say those monies are to become available for use. Are they going to plug any future financial needs by asking shareholders for more money if nameplate production is not achieved by December?
Peakview, a nice purchase ahead of the Activities Report, I also increased my holding today in the expectation the report could be the most positive since production began. The share may rise in response and we may not see 5p again. Also today's RNS on Bridging Loan clears the risk of immediate dilution, and allows Wolf 3 years grace to pay of the loan with repayments commencing in January 2018. Their plan is to have full production by December to give enough income to cover quarterly repayments.
WD 43 and All It does look as if the APT price is stabilising for now, Metal Bulletin did not report a price yesterday, which usually means the price remained the same as last week. Checking the Trade Log bears that out with trades making around $280-285 per mtu on average. The share price has also pulled back from its overbought peak last month, and has now levelled out at around 4.75p. As I posted last month, if it can hold at this 4.75p price, which is still above the 200 day moving average of just below 4.5p that is a good sign. View the next 2 weeks up to the release of the June -Sept Activities Report at end of October as critical, the share is moving into oversold indications right now. If it is a good postive report the share price could bounce and start a new upward trend, if not a good report it may slide back again, but he refinancing package and details are also key to restore some confidence and we will know more shortly. Watch carefully Wolf pack! WD43 if Wolf plan some public/shareholder visits to the mine next summer bevvies will be most welcome at the Miners Arms if you can make it.
Metal Bulletin report European APT price now $280-295 per mtu, down from $290-305 last week. MB have also confirmed that after a 3 month discussion period, they will be initiating a new tungsten concentrate spot price that will be more reflective of actual market transactions. It will be a European Cif Rotterdam price in US$, based on a WO3 65% specification, 18 tonnes package, published on a Friday between 2-3pm. It will be published by MB from 5th January 2018, and the existing price posted will also remain. We will have to wait to see if this new spot price will change anything. From Wolf viewpoint the current supply agreements with their offtake partners run until May 2018, so if they wanted to alter the basis of spot pricing they probably cannot change anything until the new supply agreements are re-negotiated by mutual arrangement.
Richam, and all Generally agree with your post, another point to consider is that the environmental inspections on Chinese producers are expected to continue at regular intervals until they conform, it is not going to be a one off inspection process. There will be costs to producers to improve production processes, and some may go out of business because they cannot meet new standards. China controls the market, and prices may have already adjusted in expectation of those increased production costs in China, as well as the tighter tungsten supply situation world wide. RWK has a good current verdict on the share until we hear the real jury verdict within the next month or so. Be ready to move whatever the news!
Cheers WD43, people are not exactly rushing to buy or sell the share today after the2017 Report, so a neutral reaction so far. Maybe we should consider whether there is a buying opportunity developing here before October when if the news is positive the share may move upwards. The share price is still holding above the 200 day moving average, a good trend sign. Metal Bulletin reports European APT price $290-305 per mtu down from $300-315 last week, probably a minor retreat from the very fast rise, lets see if it holds at this level.
For question marks read pounds sterling, keyboard failed in some way??
Thanks Mad Dave, although report on Wolf website and ASX, was not on RNS yet, or did I miss it? Anyway after a quick scan of key points to June 2017, Loss for year A$74.5m up from A$63 last year. Wolf dug out 2.23m tonnes of ore and 1.44m cu mtrs of waste. They processed 1.92m tonnes of ore and produced 1123 tonnes of tungsten concentrate and 194 tonnes of tin concentrate. Based on 0.22W% grade the achieved was 0.058, so there was a 26% tungsten recovery to June, lower than the target 50%, and hence only half the 2250 tonnes predicted production. Nothing much in Report about where production is now, except that revenue trebled, and the turnaround plan is on schedule. Looks like we will have to wait until end October for the 3 month Activities Report to September for more detail, unless an earlier update is announced. The debt situation perhaps the most important issue, and total borrowings are now currently �70m Senior debt, plus �45m bridging facility at interest rate LIBOR +4.25%, of which �6 Senior debt has been repaid. Also report suggests that a further �10m will be required in early December, so overall it will end up around �120m. Future funding requirements over the next 12 months may be met by internal accounting actions on various items and another rescheduling of debt with key funders. That is a lot to pay back each year over the 10 year life of the mine. If the APT price can remain roughly where it is (or better), the key issues to achieving profitability will become getting up to around 3500-4000 tonnes of tungsten concentrate and 400 tonnes tin concentrate production per year, getting up to at least 50% recovery by December and getting production costs per tonne down in 2018. The profitability timeframe is likely to be extended because of the increased debt situation, and anyone who expects to see a �1 share price or a dividend anytime soon should perhaps have a rethink. By the way this is not shorter speak, just an attempt to assess the reality of the facts in the Report as I see them in posts to others who may be investing in, or selling their investment in Wolf MInerals.
Morning WD 43 Wolf promises to deliver a good race but is not getting over all the jumps just yet. In my post last Monday I heard they might refuse the Proactive Investors event fence and they did! No explanation as to why, and it makes you wonder if something is amiss again. Wolf should be more proactive with their own investors, and at least advise, like a lot of companies do, when the Annual Report will be issued. Nothing upbeat to report on the APT price, as MB European price fell to $300-315 per mtu from $310-335 last week. The share price holding up at 6p is a good sign, think the market is waiting for the next news event, and only improving tungsten concentrate production figures (moving up from 6 towards 10 tonnes a day) will impact the price. APT could be a thousand $ per mtu, but if Wolf cannot produce the goods by end December there will be no profits to pay off the increased debt. Lets hope it is good news within the next month, any other thoughts?
Looking at the price movement last week, the shorter day moving averages have now crossed the longer day moving averages, and the share price has moved higher than the 200 day moving average in an upward direction for the first time in approx 30 months. The share may be viewed as in an overbought state from other indicators, but buyers and sellers were roughly even over the last week, so the move is probably technically related to APT price which has risen, but held steady last Friday. The price move is significant, and if it can hold above the 200 day moving average at around 4.75-5.0p for a period we may be able to view this as a new uptrend forming. The upcoming Annual Report and production update will be important, but the share price will be held by the debt situation/possible dilution not being totally clear until October. I have heard that Wolf may not now be at the Proactive Investors presentation this Thursday??
Was That The Week That Was? What a difference 7 days makes. Share price rising, APT price rising, number of positive posters rising, and Peakview rising from the dead to rejoin the Wolf pack!! Welcome back Peaks, lets hope price events beyond our control are heading in the right direction this time. SML - I have been watching it for a while, but not invested yet. Key news expected shortly on their various prospects. Is anyone attending the Proactive Investors event for Wolf next week?
MB European APT price now $310-335 up from $285-300 last week, price now up approx. $100 per mtu in last 8-9 weeks. WD43 you mentioned about what the share price may do over the mine life, who can tell? What we can tell is financial data from Marten &Co produced in November 2016 after the October Bridging Loan suggests that then the sum of parts NAV was 17p per share, and nett present value was 20.9p per share. With projected production of 3900 tonnes of tungsten concentrate at 55% recovery and 500 tonnes of tin concentrate to June 2018 the NAV turns positive at APT price of around $270/mtu if costs were around $110 per mtu. The assessed any extension to the mine footprint may add 3p to NAV, and increasing grade of material and recovery percentages as key challenges.
MB Chinese market APT now $311-320 per mtu up from $290-300, average $20 above Europe prices. Talk of higher prices still in China, up to $340-350 per mtu in September, but international buyers unwilling to pay those prices at this point in time. May be reaching a high peak after the recent rush on price. European APT report tomorrow will be interesting guide.
Metal Bulletin report European APT price now $285-$300 per mtu, up from $269-$275 last week. On the loan WD43, Wolf may pre-pay the Bridge Loan Facility under limited circumstances, but if it is not pre-paid by the conclusion of the 12 month term end Oct 2017 (from 1st drawdown end Oct 2016) the Bridge Loan will mandatorily switch to a 3 year subordinated convertible loan if certain conditions precident are satisfied, or a 3 year subordinated loan if those conditions are not satisfied. Terms of the current bridge loan are 10% per annum payable quarterly in arrears in cash or shares, 3 year subordinated loan terms are 15% per annum payable in cash or shares.(Subject to shareholder approval). As RWK posted, conversion into shares at current price would double the number of shares in issue if the whole of Bridge loan value was converted, this not in anybody's interest. It has a three year payment term, and an interesting comment in last RNS was that Wolf can now re-assess funding requirements because of rising tungsten price and progress of turnaround at the mine. Things seem be improving on the funding front?