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Hitting a new high - Metal Bulletin European price today $333-$342 per mtu from $328-$335 last week, tight supply predicted to continue in China. Production figures in recent Activities Report were down 20% on tungsten concentrate and 35% on tin concentrate, representing some 2-3 weeks production on tungsten and 3-4 weeks production on tin on previous quarters figures. Primarily due to the bad weather Wolf reported, surely not, there were two snow events in Devon, one lasted 3 days and the other 2 days before transport was back to normal. Some other downtime must also have affected production. Anyway, plant should be increasing output from April, but looking at shipping notes none has gone to USA since April 3. Anyone have ideas as to why this may be? On the figures Wolf are A$7 million from break even on production, that could potentially happen this quarter to June if tungsten concentrate produced was over 550 tonnes and tin concentrate was over 125 tonnes. Can they do it?
Good point richam, Wolf have not yet fully demonstrated if they can be profitable, next week will show us either another step up the production ladder towards that or a slide on the back of the snake further into the pit!
Sorry to see that you were closed out by the effects of last weeks RNS, hard to take a serious hit like that. Stop losses can be dangerous with a falling share price. If the Activities Report confirms improving production figures buying back in again could be worth it, the APT price now seems to be holding above $300/mtu longer term and may go higher. Of the other options you posted SML looks interesting although price has fallen back after a sharp rise last year. They have recently advised a 3 month suspension of production at the Cobre Facility, but news on other prospects is due in coming months. Longer term there may be a processing tie up with Wolf if the Redmoor Tin/Tungsten mine achieves approval to become operational.
Metal Bulletin European APT price $327-336 per mtu up from $325-328 last week. Activities Report for Jan - Mar expected on Monday, will production figures have increased on last quarter or not?
Have to agree DT13, the settlement between Wolf/Gres (out of court) is in the interests of both Companies and I do not understand why the news has caused a share price drop. There is no cost to Wolf, and GRES are funding the vibration/noise issues. My understanding is the main building will be reclad to resolve the problems and this has EA approval. Perhaps people have not read the RNS correctly and believe Wolf have lost �7.5m because they are not enacting the Performance Bond against GRES?? This money could only have been used for correction a non performance under the Contract, and Wolf used the threat of enacting the Bond to get GRES to agree to a non disclosed financial settlement, which Wolf must be satisfied covers the costs of remedial works - What's the problem!! This may be a low point buying opportunity, if the end April Activities Report indicates an increase to production the share could rise from here. If production has not improved then it is re-assessment time. Metal Bulletin European APT price today $325-328 from $323-328 last week. Up very marginally.
Hi adavies/richam - Looking at the US import data website it looks as if approx. 400 tonnes of tungsten concentrate have been shipped to GTP from Jan to March. Are you able to make a more accurate estimate as you calculate the time lags involved? When Wolf issues the Activities Report we will then know roughly how much may have been shipped to WBH in Austria by deducting estimate to GTP from the total concentrate production.
Metal Bulletin APT price $323-328, down from $325-330 last week. With a couple of weeks to go to release of Q3 Activities Report for Jan - March 2018, is looking for improved production figures compared to last quarter reasonable?
European APT price $325 - 330 from $325 - 334 last week, price eased slightly.
DT13, You must be talking about South Crofty mine at Pool near Camborne, it was fully operational until 1988, and lesser production until finally closed in 1998. Strongbow acquired 100% interest in March 2016 and filed Technical Report and Economic assessment in April 2017. In October 2017 they were granted a permit through the EA to dewater the mine. The mine is flooded to adit levels since production ceased, and that's a lot of water as it is more than half a mile deep in places! Reports that it would take upwards of �50 million to get it operational. Don't know about any links with Cornwall Lithium, or of any Lithium at Drakelands.
Daytrader, all on this board can say what they like within the rules under which the board operates, so sorry but 'to sort somebody out' is not within my influence or that of anybody else except possibly the operators of the board. You seem to be saying now that the statements you have made 'are more or less as mentioned in conversations with RL'. If you have any concerns that what you have posted previously on this board did not accurately represent what Wolf commented to you then perhaps you should clarify that. If you are happy with what you posted and that it is all in the public domain then surely there are no issues. We will see in the end of April Activities Report to end March how Wolf are progressing to Design Performance and Nameplate production, and we can assess that against the posts you made on the subject and my proposals for Nameplate
Calm down gentlemen, DT13 has advised us that Wolf have confirmed to him that it will be 'in profit by end June 2018, and at Nameplate by end Sept 2018' (See DT post 6 March at 15.15) DT13 then clarified what was meant by profit (DT post 20.07), that being 'Revenue exceeds production costs'. These are the two factual statements that can be judged fairly easily at the times stated in the future.
Thanks very much for info adavies, I was getting excited there for a moment with an impending cash haze, mine would have been a top of the range Lambo!! Let's see if anyone else has a view on your figures. For the shipments to Europe DT13, I have been searching the net to try and find any relevant export data or shipment records that will establish figures, but nothing seems to be as current as we need it to be. Any other ideas?
Points noted Richam, the theoretical projections for 7 day Nameplate we make, are based is Wolf's own details, and it is no more than the market would do to assess future prospects.. It will be interesting to see the Wolf reviewed 7 day Nameplate figure actually will be, and how close our projection is! Looking at other projections - with 21 days to go to the end of this January - March quarter (Q3 of Wolf financial year), are you able to calculate what concentrate tonnage has gone to GTP in the 10 weeks from Jan 1st 2018 to date? I have not been keeping up with the Panjiva shipments.
Daytrader 13 and Bulent 74 Good that you are both able to accept the 5.5 day Nameplate figures. Unfortunate that you are not able to make 7 day Nameplate proposals for agreement to move the debate forward. Wolf have quoted in the public domain the video on their website which projects a figure of 4500 tonnes of concentrate per year or 130 tonnes per week after 7 day operations were granted, and my proposal was below that, but understand if you want to remain silent until actual facts are released. Any other members here want to comment on the Nameplate proposals? Metal Bulletin European APT price today $325-330 per mtu from $323-325 per mtu last week.
Richam, appreciate your input, and on the tin production I was taking a conservative viewpoint. However taking on board what you say I shall revise my proposals with rounding for simplicity to:- Nameplate 5.5 day working 3500 tonnes per annum WO3 in concentrate and 450 tonnes per annum tin in concentrate. Nameplate 7 day working 4250 tonnes per annum WO3 in concentrate and 550 tonnes per annum tin in concentrate. Material throughput the same as previous proposal. So, Daytrader 13 and Bulent 74 are you able to accept the two 'Nameplate' figures proposed above as an agreed basis going forward, or do you wish to make any comment or alternative proposals?
Richam, your comments noted, and it is good to see that you and DT13 seem to have some common ground. It is understandable that you, and I for that matter have been sceptical about what Wolf have actually done in relation to what they said they would do over the last 2 years, which has resulted in a lot more debt for the company. Your last sentence suggests that Wolf are lowering expectations, but DT13 has reported to us that Wolf are to review 7 day working and provide a nameplate figure. So until that figure arrives, can we put aside the never ending discussion on the past for now, and the constant name calling/sniping and investigate what Wolf are saying to determine if we should be buying, holding or selling Wolf shares. Surely the crux of the matter for those interested in this board. So, are you able to agree with my two nameplate proposals, or have you alternative proposals you wish to make for consideration?
DT13 and All, Having looked back through Wolf Presentations, Feasibility Studies and other documentation from 2011, the range of nameplate production figures varies from 3450 to 4250 tonnes per annum of tungsten trioxide, and 400 to 500 tonnes of tin concentrate, depending on whether operations are over 5.5 days or up to 7 days, and generally based on 3 to 3.5m tonnes of material processed. We then have the Wolf website video which indicates up to 4500 tonnes of tungsten concentrate per annum, with up to 130 tonnes per week production. We also have DT13's most recent feedback today which tells us nameplate is 3500 tonnes concentrate per year based on 3 m tonnes of material processed, at a 5.5 day operation, but due for review due to 7 day working. Looking at all this info together, can I make the following proposal to everybody on this board for comment/acceptance about what our combined understanding of 'Nameplate Production' actually is. Nameplate for 5.5 day working, the latest reported figure, which has also been in general usage since 2011 should be used and that is 3500 tonnes of tungsten trioxide per annum and 400 tonnes of tin concentrate per annum based on 3 million tonnes of material processed. Using that as a basis, Nameplate for 7 day working, but deducting for maintenance/downtime/unknowns of 0.5 days/week propose it is realistic to calculate 3500/5.5 x 6.5 = 4136 tonnes, say 4150 tonnes of tungsten trioxide per annum, and 450 tonnes of tin concentrate per annum,material processed would have to rise to around 3.5m tonnes. Obviously the 7 day Nameplate figure can be revised when Wolf confirm after their own review as DT13 posted. If anyone considers what I have proposed is wildly out, please post what you think is more accurate, but the odd 50 tonnes on tungsten or 10 tonnes on Tin production is not going to make that much difference , it is the general principle that counts as we can us it to sensibly judge Wolf's performance againt figures we all buy into.
Yes DT13, we have different expectations of what 'nameplate' means. I will look back and search out where the figure I have used came from.
DT13, Your clarity in answering my questions is acknowledged, lastly on your 'nameplate by end June 2018' comment, can you agree/accept my view that given original stated nameplate by Wolf was 3600 tonnes tungsten concentrate per year based on 5 day working, and this was upgraded to around 4000 tonnes per year based on 7 day working that approx. 950 tonnes of tungsten concentrate per quarter is a reasonable nameplate target? And in your conversation with RL can you reveal if he stated that as his view also, or did you not discuss the specific numbers?
DT13 was the post that Richam made at 15.29 today incorrect regarding the turnaround plan in 2016? Or are you saying that the June to December 2017 turnaround plan was the only real one? Is it correct that you have no hard facts/evidence to back up what you have been told on shipments to WB & H in Europe? Can you be more accurate, as I asked before, in what you mean by being 'in profit by June 2018'?